Just received an email from the LibDems about “blanket” last minute digital advertising by Labour. Anyone experienced it? Hopefully targeted at swing voters (or possible stay at home voters).
So you wouldn’t want Green MPs in government? You’d prefer a Labour majority government based on a minority vote?
It is pretty clear what I said. I said that I would prefer a Labour majority government based on a 40% minority vote than the situation which occurred in 2017 when Labour got 40% but were in opposition.
I have no idea why you mentioned the Greens. I am a sometime Green voter and I have already stated that I support PR.
when Labour got 40% but were in opposition
Under FPTP. The result could have been very different under PR. A Labour/LibDem/Green block would have been bigger than anything the Tories could muster.
You’d prefer a Labour majority government based on a minority vote?
I prefer Reform having next to no MPs. Of course I'd love the greens and maybe some lib dems to be in govt but for now keeping Reform at bay should be the singular focus and FPTP is currently the best way of doing that. When Reform are long gone and their populist bullshit is marginalised after 10 years of public service improvement and better living standards we can think about PR. Until then though we need to do everything we can to keep Reform as far away from power as possible.
Yes which is why I support PR
@grimep Free Member
Country wants: genuinely right of centre party to replace fake conservatives.Country gets: communism…. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/02/labour-inheritance-tax-policy-redistribute-family-money-lea/
😂
I think most people would like far more redistribution policies than just taxing inheritance.
Which would you rather, a new CT scanner, or some insufferable trust funded oik getting Daddy's Ferrari collection?
Country wants: genuinely right of centre party to replace fake conservatives.
In an alternative universe Liz Truss was hugely popular and the Tories were not forced to replace her after 49 days.
I wonder how she's getting on in grimep's alternative universe?
Think it's worth repeating Ernie's point that Starmer's hollowed out labour party and manifesto of 'realistic' policies looks like it's going to get fewer votes than Corbyn the communist's manifesto for socialist revolution. Add to that the highly significant vote for Reform I think it's clear that a significant proportion of the electorate are done with business-as-usual politics and would like something a bit more radical. Labour would do well to take note. For a start they could bin their fiscal conservatism bollocks and immeditely adopt Farage's policies of raising the lower tax band to 20k and stop paying commercial banks interest on QE reserves.
cant think why the tories are going to be wiped out...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/03/list-terrible-policy-conservatives-britain-2010
Nuffield researched this – basically we seem to be moving towards a place where what you inherit defines your future wealth more than what you earn.
I'm a bit surprised by this. Mainly because the average generational inheritance age must be what - late 50s or early 60s? A lot of life has already been lived by then. The STW massive is predominantly middle aged and middle class. How many of us have actually inherited anything yet? We might if it doesn't get eaten up in care home fees etc, but not yet.
For me the much larger disparity is when people are younger - the attitude of the home you grow up in to education, the economic confidence to build up debt and go to university. The bank of mum and dad being able to afford to shout you a house deposit. By the time I'm 60 and do I or I don't inherit a £100K or whatever, the prosperity ship has already sailed. It's icing on a very nice cake rather than an indicator of a life lived in wealth.
adopt Farage’s policies of raising the lower tax band to 20k and stop paying commercial banks interest on QE reserves.
yeah because the markets definitely wouldnt go full Truss on us, especially for the latter!
Agreed with that dazh.
I'm starting to get a bit torn again now. No fan at all of this Labour party but literally hate the Tories to beyond words. I'm a Green at heart.... Macclesfield looks like going to Labour for the first time ever. Only a 9% lead in the polls though and I reckon that that gap will be much closer in reality. Just really really not sure that I can tactically voted for this Labour party. My labour candidate is a Westminster councillor FFS so hardly breaking the 'westminster elite' stereotype.
Think it’s worth repeating Ernie’s point that Starmer’s hollowed out labour party and manifesto of ‘realistic’ policies looks like it’s going to get fewer votes than Corbyn the communist’s manifesto for socialist revolution. Add to that the highly significant vote for Reform I think it’s clear that a significant proportion of the electorate are done with business-as-usual politics and would like something a bit more radical. Labour would do well to take note. For a start they could bin their fiscal conservatism bollocks and immeditely adopt Farage’s policies of raising the lower tax band to 20k and stop paying commercial banks interest on QE reserves.
I see it differently. I look across to Europe (or the US for that matter) and see a swathe of the less sophisticated portion of the voting public having their crotch stroked by the right wing populists. In the UK that's Reform and Braveman's version of the tories. I think in years to come history might suggest that Starmer's dull but not too scary polices saved the UK from itself for at least a few years.
>Just received an email from the LibDems about “blanket” last minute digital advertising by Labour. Anyone
>experienced it? Hopefully targeted at swing voters (or possible stay at home voters).
They have full coverage today (and yesterday) all over the Daily Mail website.
The Daily Mail site was Reform branded on Monday.
Just received an email from the LibDems about “blanket” last minute digital advertising by Labour. Anyone experienced it? Hopefully targeted at swing voters (or possible stay at home voters).
Yea, my feeds full of it.
I'm actually a bit worried as it's a new constituency so I don't think anyone really knows what tactical voting looks like.
GTTO says it would have been Tory last time with Lab in 2nd. Reading next door is Labour. Wokingham was Con, but they lost the council to a Lib/Lab coalition since the last GE. Labour have obviously spent their money online here. The Lib Dems have been leafleting and we had Ed Davey doing Zumba, and the Con's have been out in force knocking on doors (they have a very active local association because they've typically had lots of council seats).
I'm sort of hoping for a large Reform vote to make sure the right is split enough that it's a fair fight.
It's just oh so depressing listening to Labour going on about being realistic, rather than the likes of the Greens or Reform promising the earth, knowing they'll never have to deliver anything anyway, why can't labour just make huge promises for change, instead of being pragmatic before potentially forming a government 😡
why can’t labour just make huge promises for change, i
You mean - why can't labour just lie?
I'm guessing because they'd rather not be found out in 12 months.
I'll flip your position - why can't parties that promise the undeliverable not be struck from the ballot card? It's the populists first and most important weapon.
It’s just oh so depressing listening to Labour going on about being realistic, rather than the likes of the Greens or Reform promising the earth, knowing they’ll never have to deliver anything anyway, why can’t labour just make huge promises for change, instead of being pragmatic before potentially forming a government
Because the RW press would take them to pieces on it, then they'd fail to deliver it, then the Tories would get back in next time around.
The press are terrified by the thought of a big Labour majority - look at the doom-mongering already been printed in block capitals in the Daily Mail, The Telegraph etc. Never underestimate how much the press shape the Government and how ridiculously RW they (many of them) are.
I agree it's depressing, there's no hope, no passion, not much in the way of charisma but it IS realistic. And right now, what we desperately need is a shock dose of realism - not yet more empty promises of sunlit uplands.
I’m a bit surprised by this. Mainly because the average generational inheritance age must be what – late 50s or early 60s? A lot of life has already been lived by then. The STW massive is predominantly middle aged and middle class. How many of us have actually inherited anything yet? We might if it doesn’t get eaten up in care home fees etc, but not yet.
For me the much larger disparity is when people are younger – the attitude of the home you grow up in to education, the economic confidence to build up debt and go to university. The bank of mum and dad being able to afford to shout you a house deposit. By the time I’m 60 and do I or I don’t inherit a £100K or whatever, the prosperity ship has already sailed. It’s icing on a very nice cake rather than an indicator of a life lived in wealth.
I suppose everyone's timings will be different, but ultimately that financial security you refer to in relation to kids and their parents will apply up a generation too. Parents who might be anticipating a windfall in their 60's will be better placed to gift their savings to their kids at 50 to put towards house deposits, university education, etc. Either that or there's nothing stopping the inheritance being split across multiple generations so the kids are getting it directly.
You mean – why can’t labour just lie?
Absolutely this. Remember that the Tories got an 80 seat majority by promising the moon on a stick
Remember all those promised shiny new hospitals? Remember the money that was promised to 'forgotten' northern towns? Remember the 'benefits of Brexit'? Global Britain?
Yeah, well so does everyone else, which is why they're about to be (rightfully) decimated electorally. It was all a pack of undeliverable pie-in-the-sky fantasies and outright lies
If labour does the same, they'll suffer the same fate. Its going to take a decade to even make an impact on 14 years of damage done, so promising you're going to clear it all up in a couple of years is just bollocks and everyone knows its bollocks, because they've had the last 5 years of bollocks and look where we all are
yeah because the markets definitely wouldnt go full Truss on us, especially for the latter!
There are quite a few economists, other financial people and politicians (including Gordon Brown) in favour of it to some degree.
Pretty much every other central bank does a tiered system where only a portion of the reserves gets the full interest rates. The idea of paying interest on them is a relatively new one and one invented during the low interest years so it does deserve review now.
Its going to take a decade to even make an impact o 14 years of damage done
I'm sure they are focusing on quick wins that have the highest profile. What do we think they might be?
What do we think they might be?
Massive injection of cash into the NHS and a pay deal with junior doctors. They'll spend billions paying for people to be treated in private hospitals. That will annoy traditionalists but that and the end to strikes will bring waiting lists down very quickly.
Think we'll also see a huge injection of cash into local authorities. That will filter through to an immediate improvement in local services which will be visible to everyone in their local communities. Suddenly bins will start to be collected on time, streets and parks will be a bit cleaner, and there'll be more xmas decorations (daft I know but it will be noticed).
and look where we all are
Well not in a great place but the 6th largest economy in the world is not in recession and inflation is 2%, so things could be and have been far far worse.
Still, expect very little from a Labour government......"a decade to even make an impact"?
If that attitude prevails I think it is safe to say that Nigel Farage will be a very serious threat in 2029.
The only thing that matters now is 2029, not tomorrow's election which will indisputably result in Keir Starmer becoming PM.
If labour does the same, they’ll suffer the same fate
Only if they never actually tried to do what they promised. Due to their massive lack of ambition or trying to do anything to get any meaningful change that have made sure they don't have to live up to any promises.
The tories could have put more money into northern towns and they could have started building loads of hospitals. They didn't, which is the problem.
If labour does the same, they’ll suffer the same fate. Its going to take a decade to even make an impact on 14 years of damage done
The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they'll see it as job done. What happens after is largely irrelevant to them as all they've ever been bothered about is winning power. Just like with Blair, they will waste the opportunity of a lifetime to actually do anything transformative or long lasting. Binners nicely demonstrates the shocking lack of ambition at the heart of the current labour party. I can only hope that there is still enough residual energy and amibition in the PLP to pressure Starmer into doing something much bigger than his public pronouncements but I'm not optimistic.
Just received an email from the LibDems about “blanket” last minute digital advertising by Labour. Anyone experienced it?
Almost every Youtube ad I've seen past few days has been a Labour one, not seen a single Conservative ad.
I was in local government in 97. Overnight we went from zero money to spend on services to plenty. It made an enormous difference to communitys
You sure you are remembering that right? Remember Brown's promise to follow Tory spending plans for 2 years? I was in state funded teaching in that 2 year wait....I remember the staff meetings discussing what we were going to do when the funding came through. The photocopier literally had to have the dust blown off it and suddenly you could give out handouts and workbooks to do actual learning from. But that was 99 not 97.
Well not in a great place but the 6th largest economy in the world is not in recession and inflation is 2%, so things could be and have been far far worse.
The inflation / growth figures look like a horrible dead cat bounce though.
Inflation is falling rapidly as energy prices fall, which means they could well end up negative. Which is crippling for growth, consumers stop buying as they know prices will be lower tomorrow. Companies stop investing because the ROI calculations tell them their bank account will be worth more than the potential asset.
Growth is tiny, if we're hit with deflation that will certainly be wiped out.
I've said it before, Rishi isn't an idiot, he's a money man, I'm sure he's called the election now for a reason.
You sure you are remembering that right?
Yes.
The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they’ll see it as job done.
You are saying that like is any everyday occurrence that you can reliably see a pattern from. I'm 52 and in my useful memory (i.e. ignoring when I was a toddler) Labour has previously come to power precisely once.
The inflation / growth figures look like a horrible dead cat bounce though.
Inflation is falling rapidly as energy prices fall, which means they could well end up negative. Which is crippling for growth, consumers stop buying as they know prices will be lower tomorrow. Companies stop investing because the ROI calculations tell them their bank account will be worth more than the potential asset
There is an easy solution to that, as neoliberalism has spent 40+ years claiming that wage growth drives inflation, we can surely stave off deflation by increasing wages.
Remember Brown’s promise to follow Tory spending plans for 2 years?
Just as well that Starmer and Reeves haven't sabotaged themselves with that ball and chain then. They've committed to not raising taxes on workers and made conservative noises about spending but AFAIK they haven't committed to spending restrictions. It's literally the only hope I have for this labour government. They know they don't have to be restricted by the nonsense 'country like a household' financial analogy so I'm quietly confident they'll get away with as much spending as they can that will not spook the markets.
I prefer Reform having next to no MPs. Of course I’d love the greens and maybe some lib dems to be in govt but for now keeping Reform at bay should be the singular focus and FPTP is currently the best way of doing that. When Reform are long gone and their populist bullshit is marginalised after 10 years of public service improvement and better living standards we can think about PR. Until then though we need to do everything we can to keep Reform as far away from power as possible.
This reads like dangerous wishful thinking to me. I think it’s also entirely possible that FPTP hands Reform UK a majority in 2029, with our fawning media continuing to fan the flames, the Conservative Party thrashing about for political space between Labour and Reform UK, and Labour themselves increasingly unpopular in our continuing slide into inequality and mass poverty under firmly Reaganite/Thatcherite economic policy and again constantly denigrated by the media as in the late 00s.
38% now ffs.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1808427141400330357/blockquote >
there seems to be a surge in reform taking votes who were probably DKs voting labour to give Tories a kickingReform polling very well with 18-24 men, they have a strong tiktok & facebook game & the likes of Andrew Tate are heavily pushing Farage at the moment
this is going to be a problem for the country going forward
https://twitter.com/TateTheTalisman/status/1808251801210081435
consumers stop buying as they know prices will be lower tomorrow.
You are the first person that I have heard raise the spectre of deflation since the global credit crisis. A Labour government dealt with it then and there is no reason why the next Labour government couldn't also deal with it.
Unless you have a problem with budgetary deficits? I don't think the electorate will buy that Tory-LibDem bollocks again, do you?
I think it’s also entirely possible that FPTP hands Reform UK a majority in 2029
How on earth do you think Reform are going to overturn a 200+ majority in 2029 from the position of (probably) having a couple of MPs? Even if they are very lucky and get everything right and continually build support and replace the tories as the effective opposition, it'll still take at least 2 or 3 election cycles to erode Labour's majority to the point where they can win themselves. It would take a revolution to overturn the bias towards labour and the tories that FPTP provides.
They’ll spend billions paying for people to be treated in private hospitals. That will annoy traditionalists but that and the end to strikes will bring waiting lists down very quickly.
Paying billions to private hospitals will make the situation worse not better. 1) there is no spare capacity or very little in private health. 2) private hos[pitals are no able to deal with complex cases, 3) private hospitals are more expensive than the NHS
BMA and the other professional bodies are all telling Streeting the same thing - this is the wrong approach and will make things worse. He has also promised massive reform - which again will make things worse as it sucks up energy, time and money
What is actually needed is to get rid of the remaining nonsense from the fake market and a large injection of cash
Andrew Tate are heavily pushing Farage at the moment
Is Andrew Tate still claiming to be a Muslim?
I suspect that many of his followers are.
Corbyn the communist’s manifesto for socialist revolution.
corbyns manifesto was a perfectly normal (in a European context) social democratic left of centre manifesto
