@frankconway I'm Newark too - all the decent gigs seem to be in Nottingham.
Anyway, are you voting tactically to get Robert Jenrick out? I think it's going to be close, so my Labour vote and my boss' Reform vote will both help.
My election night plans...
I'll be in a field in Staffordshire from Thursday at a festival, toasting the Tory downfall with Bob Vylan, Dub Pistols and tons of techno/drum & bass. Seems as good a place as any...I'll be watching what I can on my phone through the early hours of Friday.
Back to prediction of turnout. 39-40% would be historically lowest in recent times by a big margin, and would feel much less democratic so I hope not.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1050929/voter-turnout-in-the-uk/
I think its likely to be a poor turnout because of the lack of enthusiasm for labour. Both Tory and Labour voters will stay at home. But see how well my previous predictions have gone 🙂
There’s some proper drama queens on here, Labour haven’t even spent a minute in power, let alone won a majority, and folk are going on about their theoretical failures in government already 🤣
+1 and said it pages back
Country wants: genuinely right of centre party to replace fake conservatives.
Country gets: communism.... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/02/labour-inheritance-tax-policy-redistribute-family-money-lea/
Country wants: genuinely right of centre party to replace fake conservatives.
Country gets: communism…. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/02/labour-inheritance-tax-policy-redistribute-family-money-lea//blockquote >
Did you accidentally link to the wrong article?
Personally I am in favour of inheritance taxation. Inheritance is one of the main drivers of inequality. I say this even tho in my nice cosy middle class family there is a fair bit of money to inherit - simply because we all bought houses when they were affordable. My nephews are going to be the main benificiaries.
I would use inheritance taxation to provide old age care for everyone
Vox Pops piece from Tamworth on R4 just now.....
We debate and discuss here using actual words, links to articles - sometimes the odd fact. You listen to podcasts of passionate, informed and cognisant debate. Then you hear a vox pops like that and you appreciate that for the overwhelming majority, regardless of which way they might vote, their thought processes and reasoning are so banal and their knowledge and understanding is at such a simplistic level it's all for nothing. One man talking about how it's time to get rid of the clowns in charge in London - and his reason - the rubbish on the path he was stood on whilst getting interviewed. A woman interviewed who wasn't sure which way to vote, but then she'd come across some facebook advert from the local tory candidate - so he must care more about the community that the rest of them so she was going to vote for him. A woman interviewed who said she couldn't vote for Labour because she didn't like Starmer because...."he was clearly after power". No shit.
The best thing about democracy is we all get a say. The worst thing about democracy is we all get a say - and half of us are below average intelligence.
Heard that. One of them voting Tory because none of the other parties would really change anything. “They’re all the same”. I mean, fine, but how does voting Tory get you whatever change you’re seeking?
I would try and stay away from that level of hyperbole,
Not good advice for someone who is trolling though is it. Have you not noticed they never, ever follow up on any of the shit they post and post stuff that is obviously going to get the stw audience going. Most manage to ignore them for what they are though.
So I reckon the Tories are gonna get 150 seats
no it’s gonna be 95 seats
Yeah no, I’ve got no idea 😂🤦🏻♂️
I’m gonna stay up Thursday as long as I can, bloody meeting on Fridays though, fortunately it’s on zoom 👍
That Tamworth vox pop was just a huge facepalm moment.
I bemoan campaign strategists of all stripes for three word slogans, dumbing down and outright obvious lies - then things like that make me realise the mean average they are playing to.
Whoever posted a few pages back about NHS patient info being dumbed down to the reading age of a 7/8 year old ("your tummy") had it right.
Election night plans - packing the van for a two week holiday and ferry in the morning...but I may need to stay up as late as I dare, or even early and get up for the news...
I am genuinely bemused by Reform looking like 20% of UK electorate will vote for them.
I am bemused by 16% predicted to vote for the random candidate thrown forward by Reform in our area of Scotland. At least he is local I suppose.
https://www.pollingreport.uk/seats/S14000105
🤷♂️
I see Cruella has emerged from her self-imposed 6 week exile and fired the starting pistol on her leadership bid. From the Guardian this morning..,
Braverman blames the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
It is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right.
The critics will cite Boris [Johnson], Liz [Truss], Rwanda, and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our ‘centrist’ vote.
The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform. Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years.
We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us.”
There you go folks. It’s all because the Tories were too ‘woke’. Yes Sue Ellen, that’s the only reasonable conclusion anyone could reach
One of them voting Tory because none of the other parties would really change anything. “They’re all the same”. I mean, fine, but how does voting Tory get you whatever change you’re seeking?
I think a lot of it is people who are actually Tories but don't want to admit it.
I know of someone who will say he doesn't like the Tories, but then voted for them in 2005, 2010 and 2015 because he 'couldn't vote for Labour because of the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan'*.
So surely he voted for a Labour party with a firmly anti-war leader in 2017 and 2019? Heavens no! Tory again. He 'can't stand the Tories', but has voted for them 5 times in a row, over 14 years. With enemies like that, who needs friends?
* He was in a combat role in the UK military at the time! I don't know what he thought he would be doing when he signed up!
I see electoral calculus are sticking to their guns. They predict a 310 seat majority with lab getting 470 seats and the libs as official opposition in 71, ten seats ahead of the tories.
If that is what we wake up to in Friday I'll be gob smacked. Would be nice though.
If that is what we wake up to in Friday I’ll be gob smacked. Would be nice though.
Indeed. I just don't see it happening mind.
The true irony if it did happen would be the libdems, who have campaigned all my life for PR, getting a lift PR would never afford them. And the tories being shafted by FPTP.
I'll be waking up on Crete on Friday morning having travelled there on Thursday (postal votes are sent although it was close given how late they arrived). Im hoping for a good Friday, sun, sand, sangria and Starmer.
PS fully agree with TJ on inheritance tax, also as someone who stands to inherit (can see it skipping a generation and going straight to my kids) it is a massive cause of wealth inequality given current house prices. I'd also happily see all assets get used for care, why should someone inherit if the older person needs care they are unwilling to provide?
what are peoples plans on election night?
I'm at a Burger Festival with a really good English/Spanish Band 🙂
Wow that Video about the labour Taxs - by the people who sat back and watched the energy prices rocket and pretty much did nothing, then they did something so their leech owning mates got paid.
Wow the intelli-sense on that one for 'leccy' was actually spot on 🙂
My parents in law are voting there and voting Tory. Typical daily mail reading, brexit voting, ‘its the immigrants that have ruined the country’, poorly educated, poorly read, small minded, small lives lived, glass half empty god’s waiting clingons that make me proud to be British.
My Parents are also in Fareham, and have voted conservative in the past. Neither read the daily mail (torygraph or times), both are well read, but both are heavily influenced by the community in Fareham. My mum has always said in the past that SB is a 'very good local MP' - however my Mum was also totally unaware of SB's voting record, until I showed it to her. Neither will be voting conservative this year (or reform).
Whoever posted a few pages back about NHS patient info being dumbed down to the reading age of a 7/8 year old (“your tummy”) had it right.
I finished university and have had GI surgery. I still don't know the difference between "stomach", "intestines" "colon", "guts", "belly", "abdomen", and "tummy". But everybody understands "tummy". Do you want people to understand or not?
What's wrong with using more simple language anyway? Is "stool" that much better than "poo"? Why?
I don't agree with all of this politico-intellectual snobbery against people with lower rates of formal literacy, especially when it comes to their health.
Agreed, it may offend some of the intelligentsia by using simplistic terms, but anything that results in earlier diagnosis and understanding is better than the alternative.
You should see old style clinical trial informed consent forms, they were shite (some still are), but making stuff understandable is critically important
And so our Tory continues to use incorrect data and claims - another leaflet and adverts online claiming that the 2019 Election Results from a poll (not even the real results) are relevant today in the 2024 election...They claim that they are second to SNP when in reality they are on 4%, not 35% as they claim...
Desperate lies.
A relative has recently broken their hand, but thought the break was in the finger due to being shown an x-ray by a doctor who only referred to the break as being in a metacarpal. But never explained what the metacarpal is! So they were then on the phone to the fracture clinic saying that they were worried about the pain radiating up to the hand, and the nurse on the other end took a tone of "well yeah, obviously". It was only after the call that they had another look at the photo of the x-ray, compared it to a stock image online and realised that they were looking at the bones in the 'meat' of the hand rather than the bones in the fingers.
PS fully agree with TJ on inheritance tax, also as someone who stands to inherit (can see it skipping a generation and going straight to my kids) it is a massive cause of wealth inequality given current house prices. I’d also happily see all assets get used for care, why should someone inherit if the older person needs care they are unwilling to provide?
Nuffield researched this - basically we seem to be moving towards a place where what you inherit defines your future wealth more than what you earn. It is a huge social justice issue, where the wealthy get to keep more of their wealth and pay proportionally less out to society and for personal costs, and those without/low inheritance get to pay proportionally more towards society and personal costs.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808232491636924612
It's still tightened up.
Thank heavens for first-past-the-post eh?
There you go folks. It’s all because the Tories were too ‘woke’. Yes Sue Ellen, that’s the only reasonable conclusion anyone could reach
The battle within the Tory party is going to be all consuming, for quite a while, I wonder if there are actually any grown ups left in the party to steer them?
trying to out-farage farage has resulted in their destruction, the right wing press shows no signs of accepting this so theyll just double down is my prediction
Thank heavens for first-past-the-post eh?
Why? Would Labour having to work with the LibDems & Greens on policy be that bad?
Polling (and voting) would be different with PR as well, of course.
trying to out-farage farage has resulted in their destruction, the right wing press shows no signs of accepting this so theyll just double down is my prediction
I wonder what the outcome will be once the result is announced - depending of course how much they lose by (or God forbid, that they actually squeak a win!). If it'll immediately descend into a full on rats-in-a-sack fight to become leader, if Sunak will hang around long enough for the fallout or if the private jet to California is already waiting at the end of the runway?
I see the Tories have even wheeled out the ‘Let the bodies pile high’ Partygate bloke
And that really is desperate. All the polling shows that one of the main reasons the Tories are so unpopular is because everyone remembers the sick relatives they couldn't visit, the weddings cancelled and the funerals of loved ones they couldn't attend, all while this was going on in Number 10....
https://Twitter.com/NicholasPegg/status/1808020015351808270
Thank heavens for first-past-the-post eh?
Why?
Sorry I should have made it clear. Thank heavens for first-past-the-post because although 40% is exactly the same as Labour got in 2017 this time, due to arithmetic associated with FPTP, if Labour get that share of the vote it will result in a comfortable majority for them.
This I consider to be a good thing. Although I do fully support PR.
So you wouldn’t want Green MPs in government? You’d prefer a Labour majority government based on a minority vote?
jimster01
Just had a look on the tactical voting website, “Not Sure”, West Worcestershire is a tory stronghold. *!!!
Lived in Malvern for 1/2 my life and was always frustrated by this. Michael Spicer was a *.
At least there's a hope that it might change but I would have thought there was more chance of it turning orange than red????
Too late for me to vote to avoid a supermajority. Mandated wokery and surrendering for us all?
