Just as well that Starmer and Reeves haven’t sabotaged themselves with that ball and chain then. They’ve committed to not raising taxes on workers and made conservative noises about spending but AFAIK they haven’t committed to spending restriction
~They have very clearly
I don’t agree with all of this politico-intellectual snobbery against people with lower rates of formal literacy, especially when it comes to their health.
I think initially it was snobbery it was a demonstratable way of showing how poor literacy rates are in this country.
They have very clearly
Have they? Where in the manifesto does it say they will stick to tory spending plans? Reeves is planning a budget in the autumn, that would suggest some significant changes in spending plans, not sticking to what we already have.
corbyns manifesto was a perfectly normal (in a European context) social democratic left of centre manifesto
Err, yeah I know, I was joking.
You are the first person that I have heard raise the spectre of deflation since the global credit crisis. A Labour government dealt with it then and there is no reason why the next Labour government couldn’t also deal with it.
Unless you have a problem with budgetary deficits? I don’t think the electorate will buy that Tory-LibDem bollocks again, do you?
Different causes though.
2008- the problem was the financial industries collapse leading to a crash in the wider economy, and everyone having to cut back which lead to deflation. You can solve that with an injection of cash to cause a bit of inflationary pressure.
Now, deflation is just happening because energy prices have/are dropping, albeit I think we've probably hit the new normal now. The direct solution to that scenario would be to prop up energy prices. Politically that would be impossible, windfall taxes are probably the most palatable proxy. In a closed system you could use that to boost spending on energy intensive things like infrastructure projects, but in the real world probably just as well off spending it on public sector pay rises where the money trickles through quickly to boost the retail side of the economy.
Englishmen watch this video.
Didnt they sod off overseas due to the fact the UK has some inconvenient laws about sexual consent?
corbyns manifesto was a perfectly normal (in a European context) social democratic left of centre manifesto
And how do you think that would have gone for him in the last couple of elections in our European neighbours?
I'm not saying it did not have personal appeal. But it's not where the general public is right now. Right wing populism is coming and coming fast and the electable alternative to fend it off is not a party to the left of where Starmer has positioned the 2024 version of Labour I don't think.
it’ll still take at least 2 or 3 election cycles to erode Labour’s majority to the point where they can win themselves. It would take a revolution to overturn the bias towards labour and the tories that FPTP provides.
the electorate have never been this swingable, the Lib Dems are likely to go from 8 to near 80- seats since 2019 the Tories from 376 to less than 76
I wouldnt be complacent about Reform, Labour need to deliver, not just on the NHS, but rebuild high streets & community centres, give the young opportunities, energy prices, housing....
it’ll still take at least 2 or 3 election cycles to erode Labour’s majority to the point where they can win themselves.
Not in today's political climate I fear.
With an 80 seat majority the Tories could reasonably have expected to win the following general election, and not instead faced what will likely be their worst general election defeat in at least a hundred years.
Politics across the Western hemisphere has become volatile and unpredictable, and we are entering new political territory.
I have no doubt that how well the incoming Labour government preforms for the next 5 years will have a profound effect on how well Reform UK do in 2029.
I doubt that the Tories will regain their credibility in 5 short years. Look how long the LibDems struggled with their credibility after the disaster that was Nick Clegg.
The aim should be to offer voters another radical alternative to Nigel Farage/UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform UK. And that's going to be one helluva task.
The aim should be to offer voters another radical alternative to Nigel Farage/UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform UK. And that’s going to be one helluva task.
I agree, people want an answer to the question of how do we sort things out, which is what Reform are offering. It's largely the wrong answer, but no one is standing up and giving an alternative.
The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they’ll see it as job done.
Bullshit.
No further comment.
Now, deflation is just happening because energy prices have/are dropping, albeit I think we’ve probably hit the new normal now.
The fluctuations of energy prices do not reflect inflation, even if they are calculated as part of inflationary pressures.
They often reflect global events which have nothing to do with the state of an economy.
Edit: And good luck if you think that falling energy costs will be reflected in consumer prices of goods and services! That suggests a very naive faith in the claimed benefits of neoliberalism!
Why Starmer should now play prosecutor on Brexit - interesting erad in the FT - don't think it is paywalled
https://www.ft.com/content/b828868f-6ee8-4520-b101-586dffec63ce
If binners had really had something to do with it, there would have been colouring in too. And maybe some pastry flakes.
susepic
Full Member
Why Starmer should now play prosecutor on Brexit – interesting erad in the FT – don’t think it is paywalledhttps://www.ft.com/content/b828868f-6ee8-4520-b101-586dffec63ce/blockquote >
I cant read it unfortunately, I know there is a hack to bypass the pay wall but I can never remember it. Lol
The latest People Polling poll for GB News has Labour on 36%, although they also have the Tories on 16% so possibly not a very reliable poll.
On the other hand Survation does have a reasonable track record and they put Labour on 38% and the Tories on 18%
Survation also claims to be 99% certain that Labour will do better tomorrow than they did in the 1997 landslide victory, which I find hugely reassuring.
However accurate that Survation prediction might be it points to at least a massive majority for Labour.
Think i might skip this thread for a day, the amount of absolute dross about Labour on here, you'd think it was Farage himself posting it as it's that baseless and negative 🤣
Anyway, tomorrow i will be voting tactically, again, Lib Dems only hope to bin the current tory MP, to be fair she's a decent candidate who actually does a load of stuff in the area over the last few years, here's hoping.
Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?
That said, it could come to pass
It seems..... unlikely though
Think i might skip this thread for a day
I think the STW tradition is that announcing it instead of just doing it is called flouncing.
The latest People Polling poll for GB News has Labour on 36%, although they also have the Tories on 16% so possibly not a very reliable poll.
People Polling is Matt Goodwins (GBNews fave, brexiteer & Trump fan) outfit it's very partisan, asks very leading questions & has thrown up some crazy numbers over the last few weeks, eg 0 seats for SNP
I'd take it with a bucket of salt
The problem kimbers is that it is very similar to the Survation poll which does have credibility.
Wasn't it Survation who most accurately predicted the 2017 general election result?
Honestly, whilst the overall percentage will be relevant (to some) for a political mandate for the governing party, it's pretty irrelevant to where we'll be on Friday morning. I think this election will be the most heavily reliant on constituency nuance of any election in my lifetime. 4 or more parties sharing 95% of each individual constituency vote in pretty sizable slices each is going to make it so complex to model. In fact, has any polling company ever modelled anything like this before? This many parties with double digit popularity in each constituency in a FPTP system is basically unprecedented.
argee
Full Member
Think i might skip this thread for a day
I'm hoping that in a few weeks from not I'll be less likely to be reading the thread or at least reading about policy discussion rather than the absolute corruption and daily disasters the Tories have inflicted upon us.
I want a return to boring politics basically.
Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?
Getting 30% would be catastrophic for the Tories.
They got 3O.7% in 1997 when they were down to 165 seats.
Andrea Jenkyns was just interviewed on Radio 4.
Blah, blah, blah... supermajority... blah, blah, blah... teaching there's 70 different genders in schools... blah, blah, blah... net zero....... blah, blah, blah... woke...... ... blah, blah, blah... not harsh enough on immigration.
Basically just the usual culture war bollocks. Its literally all they've got left. The upshot was that the Tories aren't right wing enough and need to be closer to Reform That seems to be the general consensus amongst the right wing headbangers who are going to be the only ones left to in the Tory Party after tomorrow
My prediction is that after 6 months of fighting like rats in a sack, with Badanoch or Braverman as leader, a purge of anyone left who isn't completely mental, the Tory party will be Reform in all but name and there won't be a fag paper between the two of them on policy
In some good news, the BBC are reporting that very wealthy people are selling properties in anticipation of Labour raising capital gains tax
The problem kimbers is that it is very similar to the Survation poll which does have credibility.
Wasn’t it Survation who most accurately predicted the 2017 general election result?
Was that not their MRP?, it's only a few percent either way but having reform ahead of the tories has a huge impact on seat numbers so will be interesting to see what it really looks like
I think the STW tradition is that announcing it instead of just doing it is called flouncing.
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
why can’t labour just make huge promises for change
Why should they? All they need to do to secure a huge majority is to get through today without saying anything silly.
Well not in a great place but the 6th largest economy in the world is not in recession and inflation is 2%
And how has all that wealth been used?
Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?
BBC Poll Tracker shows Tories on 21% but also points out that in general polls can be 5% either side .
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
Or is that called - I actually have a job and need to do sh1t
Bullshit.
No further comment.
Care to elaborate? Does Starmer's minimal ambition and wafer thin manifesto give you any confidence that they will do anything other than the bare minimum? I'm not wholly pessimistic, I've already said they'll make a big difference in the NHS and wider public sector (more than others on here seem to think they will do), but lets be honest that's the very minimum that is expected from a labour govt. I see no real evidence that they plan to do anything else of note, because the labour machine these days is focused on one thing above everything else, and that's winning power by not making any 'unrealistic' promises.
Johnny Mercer and his wife seem to be struggling with the finer details of what it means to live in a democracy. You can't have people arrested for holding some banners up... yet.
https://Twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1808459990476238876
They know they don’t have to be restricted by the nonsense ‘country like a household’ financial analogy so I’m quietly confident they’ll get away with as much spending as they can that will not spook the markets.
We will see on that one.
They just have to simply make-up another set of fiscal rules. Currently using OBR for modelling in 5 years time based on subsequent expected growth is an utter disaster waiting to happen.
I'm not very confident at all and I believe they will run the country to balance.
But, it will be one thing where I would love a massive u-turn.
(Spooking markets needs to bugger off really. Country needs massive fixes - markets will understand inherently that putting government investment in place offers a real return on the ground, and follows good for people good for markets. But that way around. Asset markets have had it great for a few years with interest income. It's time they slotted back into their pecking order whilst the country rebuilds. A larger deficit is almost part and parcel of this.)
However when interest rates get cut - expect a bit of a boom but then markets will slump back due to lack of interest payments and net government drains. That won't be Labour's fault. But will be intrinsically blamed on them. I reckon that's back end of 2025. But who knows economic predictions tend to go wayward when something blows up.
Labour aren't getting growth without spending anyway so let's see where they go with that.
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
That is bollocks and you bloody kn........
Johnny Mercer and his wife seem to be struggling with the finer details of what it means to live in a democracy.
Mercers wife is quite a piece of shit, as is mercer to be honest.
Had one Labour leaflet through today, addressed to all three of us old enough to vote.
Had a load of assorted bumf through yesterday. Some of it for candidates in the neighbouring constituency.
I see The Scum has come out for Labour, murdoch doesnt like to back a loser
Murdoch trying to increase market share in Liverpool?
last MRP
More In Common has
Labour: 430 seats 39%
Conservatives: 126 23%
Liberal Democrats: 52 14%
Scottish National Party: 16 2%
Reform UK: 2 13% (Anderson, Farage)
Plaid Cymru: 2
Green Party: 1 6%
Other: 2 (including Corbyn)
polls have finally tightened, but depending on how big & where the Reform vote falls Tory numbers could show big differences
Well thats me done. Last (targetted) leaflets dropped, in typically Tory drizzle. Hopefully we'll be getting a Labour government tomorrow and the sun can come back out and Engerland will play better on Saturday 😀
Don't forget your ID tomorrow when you go to vote folks, if you've not done your postal vote already
Now that I really want to see 🙂
ernie in ermine?
polls have finally tightened
My only concern is if a lot of the undecided (not sure what they need to decide now, an asteroid heading for earth with Sponsored by the Conservatives emblazoned upon it?) are actually shy Tory/Reform voters.
If Tory, that's bad, if Reform then I'm ambivalent.
Basically I'm terrified to to have hope .
I'm not into football but it must be a little like when England are taking penalties but the stakes are infinitely higher here...
