I've been banging on about GTTO, and it's because I don't want to go to bed in the small hours of July 5 with the same emptiness i did on June 24 2016, or December 2019. The country can't cope with another Tory govt, and rather than indulge any thinking about what comes next I just hope the Tories properly battered for their behaviour over teh last 14 years, and particularly since 2015. Here in lots of seats in Sussex that means LibDems. I didn't like their time in coalition but I'll not let that get in the way of flipping a Tory seat. They and I have moved on.
The what comes next only matters if the Tories are not in govt. I'm sure that Starmer and his team is thinking hard about that, but he is laser focussed on winning, and not letting the RW press get traction on any issue.
I feel a bit like that with GTTO i guess - don't let anything get in the way of that.
I guess on reflection that I am a bit dogmatic about that (mea culpa) even while for me it is the only pragmatic decision (does that make sense?)
The next steps are one's that Labour will have to work out when they get in.
My next steps as I am but a single voter is to start trying to make a change by advocating for electoral reform cos that's the only way we get out of these electoral dead ends and feel truly represented and seen for our votes.
And Amen to Poop's idea to go and take a walk or a ride. Took the dog for a walk y'day evening and it was glorious. Then took some pictures of swifts overhead
What is it about MTBers all having almost indistinguishable political beliefs?
Don't worry, Ernie, we know you're "different". 🙂
Caught up on the “debate”. Sunak needed his mic muting.
The 1% I assume
My next steps as I am but a single voter is to start trying to make a change by advocating for electoral reform cos that’s the only way we get out of these electoral dead ends and feel truly represented and seen for our votes.
PR will not solve the representation problem, it will only make it worse, whilst at the same time massively empowering far right populists. Be careful what you wish for.
for me it is the only pragmatic decision (does that make sense?)
If you are being totally pragmatic check out how many seats in a general election have been won with one vote difference and then vote for what you believe in. However if you want to change an election result then persuading other people to vote tactically might have some effect. So I'm fully expecting all those calling to vote Starmer despite the bad taste to vote LIB Dem or Green when they get in the polling booth. 😉
I know that voting is pissing into the wind but I do it out of a sense of civic duty, a belief in democracy and taking responsibility for the shambles that follows if my prefered candidate wins.
PR will not solve the representation problem, it will only make it worse, whilst at the same time massively empowering far right populists. Be careful what you wish for.
Maybe it's a discussion for a separate thread after July 5. I suspect that there are different ways of doing it that make it better. I am just not comfortable that the only other countries in Europe with FPTP are Russia and Belarus.....
If you are being totally pragmatic check out how many seats in a general election have been won with one vote difference and then vote for what you believe in
But how many seats have been lost because people vote with their hearts (yellow or red) and the Tory gets in with fewer votes than the combined yellow and red votes
It's a tactical yellow vote across a lot of Sussex, and that thinking is hopefully going to pay-off.
PR will not solve the representation problem, it will only make it worse, whilst at the same time massively empowering far right populists.
the experience from Scotland says different. The real experience of real elections under a decent PR system
Edit - nor is it the experience of most countries with PR nor has FPTP stopped us from having a far right populist government with a majority on a minority of the vote
In the latest 'no shit Sherlock' anouncement, somebody in government has finally vocalised the truth that dare not speak its name....
https://Twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1806247799274496060
I fear we are entering the realm of having an argument about how to have an argument.
Think half a dozen need a week off from here, the imagined slights on all sides are becoming painful to scroll past, let aone try and read.
I don't know how widespread the "agreement" is that Lab and Lib are steering clear of each other's probable gains but certainly where I am (Lib/Con swing seat, though a probable Lib shoe in this time) I have seen hide nor hair of Lab. Mind you I can say the same of Con. Oh and for the first time in 43 years living here I actually had a candidate knock on the door.
I know that voting is pissing into the wind
From pissing in the wind to a picture of a passerine in the wind. Neat.
But, bloody swifts. Economic migrants aren't they? Come over here in summer, eat all our insects, then bugger off back to Africa when they've had their fill. Disgusting.
Only joking, obvs. Swifts on the wing are one of my favourite things in the world to see...
I have seen hide nor hair of Lab.
Other way around here. No sign of the LibDems, and they’re very active when it comes to the council. Seems to be a case of keep quiet and leave Labour to fight this one. They’ll be back come the next round of councillor elections.
the experience from Scotland says different.
The scottish experience of PR is massively skewed by the independence referendum and it's fallout in the form of labour's collapse. And you can't credit the lack of populists in scotland to having PR. That's a result of the fact that Scottish nationalists are already in power and already doing most of what a populist nationalistic govt would do. There's a lot more going on in Scotland than simply having PR.
N o sign of any real political activity here. Had a couple of bits of paper for the recycling but thats it. Usually we would have a lot more activity
LOL! It’s ok the marxists and communists in the labour party will solve that problem by nationalising the failing private schools.
This feels like satire, but I can't tell anymore.
I feel a bit like that with GTTO i guess – don’t let anything get in the way of that.
Honestly, I think the Tories are gone. I'm not sure what seismic event it would take to wake up on 5th of July and find the Tories are the largest party, let alone have a majority. No poll, calculation, projection, betting odds or anything else are pointing towards it being any kind of realistic possibility.
However, if you do still feel that it's a realistic possibility, you can get odds of 195/1 on Betfair that the Tories will be the largest party and 224/1 that they will have an overall majority. Put £20 on that and you might wake up with 5 more years of Tory rule but at least you'll be able to buy a new bike.
Although honestly, I don't believe there is any kind of realistic chance you will be buying a new bike.
The scottish experience of PR is massively skewed by the independence referendum and it’s fallout in the form of labour’s collapse. And you can’t credit the lack of populists in scotland to having PR. That’s a result of the fact that Scottish nationalists are already in power and already doing most of what a populist nationalistic govt would do. There’s a lot more going on in Scotland than simply having PR.
Labours collapse was before the independence referendum by many years. SNP are not right wing populists or in any way doing what a right wing populist government does. Indeed in many ways the opposite
Its also the experience europe wide and FPP has not stopped a right wing populist government in Westminster.
If you would like to know a bit more about what is actually happening in Scotland I can give you some good resources
Although honestly, I don’t believe there is any kind of realistic chance you will be buying a new bike.
Back of Viz 'Norman Tebbit anniversary' model ftw
I just came here to say that I've agree with several of @Edukator's posts this week.
What is the world coming to?
🙃
it's okay, I still rarely agree with @ernielynch, equilibrium has returned to my life
😉
who's this bin-man chap you're all referring to?
I am just not comfortable that the only other countries in Europe with FPTP are Russia and Belarus…..
It's just Belarus, Russia uses PR. You see the issue in comparing countries like these with the UK though, right? (or comparing them to any other country that uses any variation of any voting system at all)
So even if they’re anonymous it’s not hard to guess who’s piling on with the “hate likes”.
Honestly, that's well into the realms of being a persecution complex.
I feel a bit like that with GTTO i guess – don’t let anything get in the way of that.
TBH I've always felt better when the tories are in power because when they do shit I hate it's what I expect of them. When labour are in power and they do much the same stuff I feel a massive sense of frustration and disappointment that I just don't get with the tories. I fear I will soon again be suffering from this affliction even though my expectations are extremely low.
So a week to go.......
BMGs lates poll has
LAB: 42% (-)
CON: 20% (+1)
REF: 16% (-3)
LDEM: 12% (+3)
GRN: 6% (-1)
polls & MRPs are throwing up some pretty wide ranges , all show a big Labour majority
will it be a Tory:
extinction <50 seats, Lib Dens 2nd party, probably 10+ reform MPs
wipeout <100 seats Tories probably still official opostion 5 reformn MPs
Landslide <200 seats 1997 style and maybe 1 or 2 reform
range in MRPs is broadly 60-160 seats for the Tories
Personally I think Tories will just scrape above 100MPs, I think Reform will underperform vs some of their polls(& Russia comments damaged farage) and the lib dems will do well, but even with a lot of tactical voting (which is actually very hard to do) they wont be Official Opposition (tho I'd love to see it) A few surprise Green results and an SNP rout
Its also the experience europe wide and FPP has not stopped a right wing populist government in Westminster.
See also the Scandinavian countries where Right wing populists have built support and then found themselves with the opportunity to be junior partners in a coalition. Support then plummets as their lies are exposed (or not necessarily lies, just that the real world turns out to be slightly more complex than their fantasies).
Doesn't always work, of course, see Italy. In Italy's case though I suspect it is so difficult for them to actually do anything given the numerous branches of government and legislature that it's difficult for them to do too much damage. Kind of a blessing and a curse.
It should be possible to strike a balance between having a government that is crippled because it is forced to compromise on everything (like Italy) and countries where 20% of the population can vote for a populist and then they have carte blanche to do whatever they like (the UK).
FPTP can be made to work, I'm sure, but it is so dependent on having a politically engaged electorate who realise that they are voting for their candidate and not for a PM. And they also have to realise the candidate answers to them first and foremost and not their party.
I just don't think that's a realistic prospect which is why I changed from being a supporter of FPTP to PR.
I agree with your somethingion @kimbers, that's pretty much echos my own thoughts on the outcome.
Ref Scotland and PR:
Isn't part of the problem that PR should give you more small parties with either single issues or more nuanced policies. E.g. a right leaning Green party, a Right leaning independence party, and a left leaning anti-immigration party, etc. But it hasn't actually delivered that.
So you get arguments about whether the SNP is an independence party, or just a more effective left wing Scottish opposition to the Tories in Westminster.
The Tories have handed the SNP the gun to shoot themselves in the foot with this election. By implying that the GE would be used to determine a mandate for another referendum. But coming after the SNP political (rather than independence campaigning) wing collapsing through one scandal / miscalculation after another, and it looking like a Labour win in the rest of the UK their vote is getting squeezed on two sides.
Personally I think Tories will just scrape above 100MPs
I can see where you're coming from but I still think it's most likely going to be just under 100.
Should we start a sweepstake?
If so I'm going for 96.
Doesn’t always work, of course., see Italy
So on the scale of well informed objective electorates and uninformed and prone to vote on instinct and ingrained biases, where would you put the UK? The problem with allowing populists to gain any power in this country is that people would keep voting for them irregardless of what they do when in power. The UK is much more like the US in this regard than Europe. Allowing populists the opportunity to gain power in the hope that they will fail and be exposed is incredibly naive and hugely dangerous. Far better to take the easy option and just keep them out of power.
200 ish
Doesn’t always work, of course., see Italy.
Where far-right Meloni's government has handed out 450 000 work visas to migrants/refugees.
Meanwhile in the UK the Tories have adopted Farage rhetoric whilst immigration rates beat records.
Both failing dismally by their own measures. If Bardella our Franco-Italian-Algerian anti-immigration candidate gets in I suggest it might be a good time for STW francophiles to apply for a French work visa or envisage a French political career.
No sign of any real political activity here.
Not much here either. We had a Labour and PC leaflet last week, and another PC one a couple of days ago.
PR requires (in fact it only really works) when you have one or two centrist parties that the smaller parties further along the spectrum of them can coalesce around with perhaps one or two independents.
You still end up with a ruling group with a range of viewpoints within a broad political definition, and an opposition group broadly mirroring it., as opposed to the UK's FPTP system that ends up with a a ruling party with a range of viewpoints within a broad political definition, and an opposition party broadly mirroring it.
My feelings on the outcome have shifted slightly towards a sub but close to 100 Tory seats total and an outside but possible chance of 3rd party status. That said, such small percentage changes having a big effect make it anyone's guess now. Above 100 I think they are going to be relieved and calling it a result
I'm more interested in the number of Tory seats remaining than the size of the labour majority
I'm still thinking 175-ish
But as someone said a few pages back, FPTP means that unless you can be the lib-dems and entirely focus on winnable seats once you slip into the 20's nationally it's a collapse in seats. The margin for error in the polls is anywhere between 50 and 250 seats.
I'd be (VERY) happy if it was a (lot) lower but wouldn't consider 200 to be a bad night for Labour.
BruceWee
Full Member
Personally I think Tories will just scrape above 100MPsI can see where you’re coming from but I still think it’s most likely going to be just under 100.
Should we start a sweepstake?
If so I’m going for 96.
I'm up for that, I'll go for 77.👍
So on the scale of well informed objective electorates and uninformed and prone to vote on instinct and ingrained biases, where would you put the UK? The problem with allowing populists to gain any power in this country is that people would keep voting for them irregardless of what they do when in power. The UK is much more like the US in this regard than Europe. Allowing populists the opportunity to gain power in the hope that they will fail and be exposed is incredibly naive and hugely dangerous. Far better to take the easy option and just keep them out of power.
If there were a Tory-Reform coalition and the Tories put Reform in charge of immigration (like the Norwegian Høyre part did with the populist FRP party) and immigration continued at the same level, you don't think support for Reform would plummet as their election rhetoric of stopping all immigration was shown to be nonsense?
The problem with the current system is that if the populists are perpetually out of power then they are constantly driving the agenda of the main parties, as we have seen over the last 15 years.
If you want to continue using FPTP then you have to come up with a way to make sure the electorate understands that their MP represents them first, party second. I see no signs of that happening ever. Do you?
My leaflet count so far is at 4 - Labour, SNP, Reform and EDINBURGH PEOPLE (local nutters, it seems).
A friend in the same constituency as me has received a leaflet from the Tories, but I haven't got one yet.
I follow German politics which is proper PR. First there's an election then the power struggle starts. There's been some kind of a coalition for a long time. You get black-red-green coalitions, traffic light coalitions etc.. Sometimes something fairly radical happens such as shutting down the nuclear power stations but most of the time they just keep blundering on pandering to the real power in Germany: the industrial giants and economic interests.
the right wing populists have been in power in a majority government with a minority of the vote for 14 years.
Don't be daft. The tory govt is in no way a far right populist govt. The only time it came anywhere near that was when Johnson was elected on his 'get brexit done' slogan. He didn't last long and the rest of the time they have been a fairly typical right of centre govt as you would expect of the tories. To be populists you have to do stuff that is popular. Brexit aside what else have the tories done that can be described that way?
My leaflet count so far is at 4 – Labour, SNP, Reform and EDINBURGH PEOPLE (local nutters, it seems).
I've had Labour, Green, Lib Dem, Reform and a very heavily disguised Tory one where our resident MP claims to be the "independent minded champion" of the constituency. There's very little in there to indicate that he's a Tory.
All went into the recycling pile.
