Andrea Jenkyns was just interviewed on Radio 4.
Blah, blah, blah... supermajority... blah, blah, blah... teaching there's 70 different genders in schools... blah, blah, blah... net zero....... blah, blah, blah... woke...... ... blah, blah, blah... not harsh enough on immigration.
Basically just the usual culture war bollocks. Its literally all they've got left. The upshot was that the Tories aren't right wing enough and need to be closer to Reform That seems to be the general consensus amongst the right wing headbangers who are going to be the only ones left to in the Tory Party after tomorrow
My prediction is that after 6 months of fighting like rats in a sack, with Badanoch or Braverman as leader, a purge of anyone left who isn't completely mental, the Tory party will be Reform in all but name and there won't be a fag paper between the two of them on policy
In some good news, the BBC are reporting that very wealthy people are selling properties in anticipation of Labour raising capital gains tax
The problem kimbers is that it is very similar to the Survation poll which does have credibility.
Wasn’t it Survation who most accurately predicted the 2017 general election result?
Was that not their MRP?, it's only a few percent either way but having reform ahead of the tories has a huge impact on seat numbers so will be interesting to see what it really looks like
Posted : 03/07/2024 2:35 pm
I think the STW tradition is that announcing it instead of just doing it is called flouncing.
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
Posted : 03/07/2024 2:36 pm
why can’t labour just make huge promises for change
Why should they? All they need to do to secure a huge majority is to get through today without saying anything silly.
Well not in a great place but the 6th largest economy in the world is not in recession and inflation is 2%
And how has all that wealth been used?
Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?
BBC Poll Tracker shows Tories on 21% but also points out that in general polls can be 5% either side .
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
Or is that called - I actually have a job and need to do sh1t
Posted : 03/07/2024 2:58 pm
Topic starter
Bullshit.
No further comment.
Care to elaborate? Does Starmer's minimal ambition and wafer thin manifesto give you any confidence that they will do anything other than the bare minimum? I'm not wholly pessimistic, I've already said they'll make a big difference in the NHS and wider public sector (more than others on here seem to think they will do), but lets be honest that's the very minimum that is expected from a labour govt. I see no real evidence that they plan to do anything else of note, because the labour machine these days is focused on one thing above everything else, and that's winning power by not making any 'unrealistic' promises.
Posted : 03/07/2024 3:05 pm
Johnny Mercer and his wife seem to be struggling with the finer details of what it means to live in a democracy. You can't have people arrested for holding some banners up... yet.
https://Twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1808459990476238876
They know they don’t have to be restricted by the nonsense ‘country like a household’ financial analogy so I’m quietly confident they’ll get away with as much spending as they can that will not spook the markets.
We will see on that one.
They just have to simply make-up another set of fiscal rules. Currently using OBR for modelling in 5 years time based on subsequent expected growth is an utter disaster waiting to happen.
I'm not very confident at all and I believe they will run the country to balance.
But, it will be one thing where I would love a massive u-turn.
(Spooking markets needs to bugger off really. Country needs massive fixes - markets will understand inherently that putting government investment in place offers a real return on the ground, and follows good for people good for markets. But that way around. Asset markets have had it great for a few years with interest income. It's time they slotted back into their pecking order whilst the country rebuilds. A larger deficit is almost part and parcel of this.)
However when interest rates get cut - expect a bit of a boom but then markets will slump back due to lack of interest payments and net government drains. That won't be Labour's fault. But will be intrinsically blamed on them. I reckon that's back end of 2025. But who knows economic predictions tend to go wayward when something blows up.
Labour aren't getting growth without spending anyway so let's see where they go with that.
Posted : 03/07/2024 3:13 pm
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
That is bollocks and you bloody kn........
Posted : 03/07/2024 3:40 pm
Johnny Mercer and his wife seem to be struggling with the finer details of what it means to live in a democracy.
Mercers wife is quite a piece of shit, as is mercer to be honest.
Posted : 03/07/2024 3:45 pm
Had one Labour leaflet through today, addressed to all three of us old enough to vote.
Had a load of assorted bumf through yesterday. Some of it for candidates in the neighbouring constituency.
Posted : 03/07/2024 3:46 pm
I see The Scum has come out for Labour, murdoch doesnt like to back a loser
Posted : 03/07/2024 4:36 pm
Murdoch trying to increase market share in Liverpool?
Posted : 03/07/2024 4:53 pm
last MRP
More In Common has
Labour: 430 seats 39%
Conservatives: 126 23%
Liberal Democrats: 52 14%
Scottish National Party: 16 2%
Reform UK: 2 13% (Anderson, Farage)
Plaid Cymru: 2
Green Party: 1 6%
Other: 2 (including Corbyn)
polls have finally tightened, but depending on how big & where the Reform vote falls Tory numbers could show big differences
Posted : 03/07/2024 4:59 pm
Well thats me done. Last (targetted) leaflets dropped, in typically Tory drizzle. Hopefully we'll be getting a Labour government tomorrow and the sun can come back out and Engerland will play better on Saturday 😀
Don't forget your ID tomorrow when you go to vote folks, if you've not done your postal vote already
Now that I really want to see 🙂
ernie in ermine?
Posted : 03/07/2024 5:00 pm
polls have finally tightened
My only concern is if a lot of the undecided (not sure what they need to decide now, an asteroid heading for earth with Sponsored by the Conservatives emblazoned upon it?) are actually shy Tory/Reform voters.
If Tory, that's bad, if Reform then I'm ambivalent.
Basically I'm terrified to to have hope .
I'm not into football but it must be a little like when England are taking penalties but the stakes are infinitely higher here...
I’m not into football but it must be a little like when England are taking penalties but the stakes are infinitely higher
Careful..... we change Governments typically every 10-15 years. We haven't won anything at Football for 58 years. Would i swap a Labour government for winning the Euros.
.
.
.
.
absolutely not.
A world cup, however.... 😉
The polling has only moved a touch, but the gap between Tory and Labour is still very large. I'm trying to keep hopeful and not to expect a massive majority, but would be happy if it did transpire. The poll of polls are showing a highly likely historic/landmark win for Labour, bigger than Blair in '97. As mentioned many pages back, the main feeling will be a temporary relief rather than euphoria, but that'll do. That'll more than do.
Posted : 03/07/2024 5:26 pm
I feel like I did as a kid on Christmas Eve. Genuinely excited. A large majority would be ace but I’ll just be pleased to see the incompetent, self serving and morally corrupt Tories out of government, even if just by one seat.
The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they’ll see it as job done.
The problem with Labour is they always try and walk it in.
Posted : 03/07/2024 5:48 pm
Just been for a walk down shops. There is a huge long row of bungalows high up on a grass bank. Not a single political poster up. Apart from one bungalow.
I hardly know the occupants apart from a few fleeting conversations over the years. Two brothers live there.
On the large bay window I see 3 small Vote Labour posters up and a small poster mentioning the actual candidate, with her picture on it.
I smile.
As I walk a little further I see that on the other side of the bay window there is another poster that's says Vote Green. I smile even more.
I'm guessing there had been a healthy political debate going on there.
... And I do mean healthy.👍😁
I'll make sure I chat to them a little more in the future.
Posted : 03/07/2024 5:54 pm
ernie in ermine?
If the mods permanently change his username to ErmineErnie I'll throw another tenner in the pot!
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:02 pm
Hoping for as many delicious Portillo moments as possible. Rees Mogg for starters! Oh please make it happen!
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:07 pm
Ouch.
"Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer"
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
Good job the debate is about boring leaders rather than policy and ideas.
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:10 pm
dissonance and dissonance reacted
How the hell are you embedding x posts Binners?
My embedding just stopped. Are you doing anything other than sharing a post?
Can you share your secret?
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:13 pm
matt_outandabout and matt_outandabout reacted
How the hell are you embedding x posts Binners?
Again,
twitter dot com embeds, x dot com does not.
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:14 pm
If the goal is to win votes from Richie Rich and Nigel Hitler then that’s probably a sensible approach TBF.
This late in the day with this predicted lead?
🤔
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:15 pm
Again,
twitter dot com embeds, x dot com does not.
All-rate ... but it did until very recently from my app.
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:17 pm
Ouch.
“Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer”
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
It'd only give a shedload of ammo to Reform / Tory at the last second. They'd be all "look at Starmer, going against The Will of the People!" and that's before the likes of the Daily Wail get their headlines into it.
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:19 pm
It’d only give a shedload of ammo to Reform / Tory at the last second. They’d be all “look at Starmer, going against The Will of the People!” and that’s before the likes of the Daily Wail get their headlines into it.
He just doesn't need to say it though. He's said enough.
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:20 pm
“Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer”
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
Well it is still a bit touch and go whether Rishi Sunak can pull this one off or not.
Although maybe Starmer has received some worrying medical advice and he is trying to break it to us slowly?
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:20 pm
This late in the day with this predicted lead?
Pass. If I've learned anything in politics in the last decade, it's a mistake to be complacent.
This is an interesting website. In my constituency, it shows a near-equal split between Tory and Reform. If they hadn't split the vote, the Tories would be in danger of winning. The difference in 2019 between Labour and Tory was a handful of votes. So, uh, yay Nigel?
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:21 pm
All-rate … but it did until very recently from my app.
Dunno about that, then. I don't use an app. Maybe it's rebranded itself internally?
Posted : 03/07/2024 6:22 pm
Well this is encouraging - Opinium have probably been the pollster which have been the least generous to Labour in recent times.
https://opinium.substack.com/p/opiniums-final-poll-of-the-2024-uk
And even their worse case scenario is hugely encouraging:
Almost one in ten (8%) of 2019 Conservatives still say they don’t know how they will vote in the general election tomorrow, twice the number of 2019 Labour voters (4%). If they did return to the Conservatives at the very last moment, there could still be a narrowing of a couple of points, although this would still leave Labour with an unprecedentedly large lead in vote share.”
@monkeyboyjc - Thank you for your efforts re. your parents seeing the real Suella. Sadly, it is going to be another win for the tories but maybe she will resign, or get lost on her trip to America, anything really, anything at all.
This late in the day with this predicted lead?
Most people haven't voted yet. Predictions are worth nothing. Expect a whole load of "surrender to Brussels" nonsense online tonight. If they've dragged the yeti PM out of hiding to campaign today, it must mean they want a last day of campaigning on a "freedom from the EU" ticket.
Topic starter
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
He's 61. Given that he's a bit of a boozer it's probably a simple statement of fact that he won't be around if and when we ever rejoin the EU. I almost admire his self-awareness. 🙂
Posted : 03/07/2024 7:25 pm
Yup, a decade or more before we even begin the accession process, and another decade to complete it. Anyone still thinking Brexit is a reversable process need to be told the truth. Joining the EU is so far away most of us will never see it. If “trying” a spell of being outside the EU was a thing, then us boring types who thought we could see what we were walking into wouldn’t have been so vocal against it.
Posted : 03/07/2024 7:34 pm
Interview on local news just now with the Tory candidate for High Peak (wherever that is). She asks - I paraphrase, sorry - "are you still happy to be a Conservative candidate" and his reply is "yes, I think they're the least bad option."
👀🤷♂️
Posted : 03/07/2024 7:45 pm
the Tory candidate for High Peak (wherever that is).
Glossop/Buxton way I think?
Posted : 03/07/2024 7:47 pm
Most people haven’t voted yet. Predictions are worth nothing.
Why have we been debating polls for years then?
I think it's more to do with the Sun endorsing him a short while earlier.
(I'm not pushing for EU rejoin at all it's just interesting watching all the remainers roll over on to their backs an agree with whatever Starmer says.)
Yup, a decade or more before we even begin the accession process, and another decade to complete it.
I've no idea how you can timeframe that. That's one of those predictions you just said were worth nothing.
Posted : 03/07/2024 7:47 pm
ernielynch and ernielynch reacted
