Can we do this separately to the Trump thread?
Anyone planning an all-nighter? I’ll try as late a one as I can, although it sounds like some of the states might not declare on the night.
Will Florida or Georgia go blue? Will Pennsylvania stay Red?
Will we even have a declared winner on the night?
fivethirtyeight.com now have Georgia as being pro Biden. Their simulations only have Trump at a 1 in 10 chance of winning.
I think I'll wait until late on Wednesday until I'm sure.
Hopefully the new kangaroo Supreme Court won't need to make a ruling.
Will we even have a declared winner on the night?
Yes. Trump will declare himself the winner for sure. Whether it's through outright votes (unlikely, as above), Trump choosing to simply ignore postal votes (likely) or, failing that, calling the whole thing some sort of democrat scam. Will either of them concede victory on the night? Not a chance IMO.
Tempted to stay up and watch it as it could be one giant comedy show. Sadly I think it will go to the Supreme Court as Trump will declare himself the winner and pull every trick he can to stay in power.
If it wasn't for the fact I was failing at Xmas Chub Club I'd be tempted to get a load of snacks and drinks and watch it all fall apart!
Not convinced we will have a final conclusive and (begrudgingly accepted) result until December. It'll be a hanging chad farse all over again only with a shouty lying man being shouty on twitter from his presidential toilet.
Just typing 'hanging chad' makes me angry all over again. Old knackered voting machines in poor democrat voting areas with votes spuriously discounted with the republican candidate's brother in charge of the process as the governor. It's almost enough to make you proud of our wonderful system.
I'll be staying up to watch.
I stayed up for the referendum.
Trump 2016.
Actually, I probably should go to bed.
I stayed up for the referendum.
Trump 2016.
Actually, I probably should go to bed.
Me too. 😃
I'll be doing an all-nighter; always do for the big votes - GE, brexit, US elections.
I cannot see trump conceding even if it's a complete Biden landslide; he would choke on the words.
trump sees only two possible outcomes - he wins or the election is stolen from him.
If/when Biden wins the inauguration will be interesting; will trump co-operate in the transition, will be pass on attending, how poisonous will he be, will he set up his own tv station as rumoured?
How long will it be before the lawsuits start landing on his desk?
I'd love to see Joe win but I just have this nagging doubt which I hope is just a nag.
will he set up his own tv station as rumoured?
Considering all the debts trump has that are due not long after election & his tax data showing the Apprentice was the only thing he made a profit on, id say its a certainty!
Which means he'll be obsessively slating Biden & the corrupt election that stole his presidency....
I'll not be staying up, especially as it seems likely trump will drag out through the courts regardless, so it won't be official for a week at least
Anyone planning an all-nighter?
You might be in for a pretty long binge if you are hoping to wait till a final result is confirmed.
Here's a map based on Fivethirtyeight data. Any state within a 3 point margin is coded bronze. Trump is ahead in Texas by about 2 points, Biden is ahead in Arizona by about 3 points, so it wouldn't be a big surprise if those states went either way. Problem is, Trump has to win every single bronze state, plus at least one blue state. Pennsylvania is closest, where Biden is ahead by 5 points. So, it's not impossible that Trump scratches out a very close victory, but it's much, much more likely that Biden wins by a fairly comfortable margin. It looks to be more likely that Biden wins Texas than Trump wins Pennsylvania, so a Biden landslide is more likely than a narrow Trump victory.
I can see trump setting up his own TV station, as a more swivel eyed version of Fox news. He ll make Alex Jones look like des lynam. He ll staff it full of his family members so you can look forward to Sunday morning breakfast show with Eric. And make up tips with Tiffany
He ll be able to meet his astronomic debts with merch sales. Seriously he ll coin it with so much tat sold to gullible fools
When Biden gets in I hope he unleashes the full weight of the law on Trump. Trump manicled and in an orange jumpsuit being being marched out of Trump Tower come next Friday. I'd stay up for that.
I remember when I woke up the next day thinking surely we’d be remaining in the EU to find that Brexit won, I can see somehow the same happening here. I hope trump gets massively embarrassed.
I quote “I’m not racist, look at the audience you can barely see them”!!!!!
The fact he still classes American citizens as colour disgusts me...
What’s the point of this thread if in the first page it’s already the circle jerk that the Donald trump thread is....
My prediction is that Trump will step down in November, Pence becomes president and pardons Trump and all his motley crew, Biden takes over in January.
Was reading a very feasible thread on Reddit that explains how all the court packing, postal service meddling and general all round shithousery the republicans have been doing paves the way for a "legally sound" interpretation of a particular amendment that basically let's Mike Pence decide who wins.
What a surprise. The US is fast becoming the very dictatorship it purports to defend against.
My prediction is that Trump will step down in November, Pence becomes president and pardons Trump and all his motley crew, Biden takes over in January.
A few people suggested that a couple of months back, but if it was going to happen, they would have used the cover of his Covid infection, so that's out now. And I think Pence can only pardon him for federal offences anyway. The Independent has an interesting piece today wishing for a scenario that as Biden is sworn in, Trump gets arrested as he lands in Florida.
I can't see the result being declared on the night. Which is a good thing. The last two big votes I've woken up to a result headlining the news were Brexit and Boris's thumping majority, a third "WTAF" wake up would not be good.
I'll be staying up for this. Been following it too closely not to see out the final few hours.
I reckon it'll be pretty much done and dusted on the night. All the indicators (polls, very high turnout which always benefits the Dems) are pointing towards a convincing Biden victory.
Hopefully that'll prove to be the case..
The real question if Boden wins is how long it will take to unravel various laws, puppet government employees and (the biggest task of all) create a more cohesive society in USA.
A question - is there a big silint majority in USA who are not so entrenched in two party politics and more about a better USA?
The way US politics works Biden will be able to replace almost all of the rotten wood pretty quickly. It will be interesting to see if he reinstates any of those fired or marginalised by Trump
A question – is there a big silint majority in USA who are not so entrenched in two party politics and more about a better USA?
If turnout figures are to be believed, that's a possibility, and you have to hope that Trump's legacy (if he loses), is to engage an awful lot of previously apathetic people with democracy for decades to come.
I feel bad for Americans.
The choices they've been given to vote for are a pervy old man with a dodgy family and declining faculties or another pervy old man with a dodgy family and declining faculties.
The Democrats learned nothing from 2016 and have picked a candidate from the same stock as Clinton and the like. Biden will probably win, but let's not pretend he's a good person to be president of the USA, he's barely fit to conduct a TV interview.
Trump got in because he wasn't Hillary, if Biden gets in, it will be because he isn't Trump. Voting for someone because they're not the person you hate is never a good position to be in.
Not to mention Harris and her ongoing mission to maintain the USA as the world's greatest prison colony.
Please remember that whoever wins there are going to be a lot of scared, angry and confused Americans out there. Huge swathes of the population seem to actively fear the opposition. There are a lot of hard working people that actually think Trump has done them some good and whilst it's easy for us to mock them, they live in very different circumstances to you or I.
So when hopefully Trump gets dragged from power, we should spare a thought for his supporters. They won't all be the idiots that we see on the TV, many will be quietly worried everyday folk
If ever the opportunity arises then a kind word would be better than humiliation. I've found that when you actually talk to someone, even if you have wildly different views, common values can usually be found and some kind of friendship can be struck up.
The internet is awash with hurtful messages, the dream of unifying the world is instead assisting in its fracturing. Maybe we should do something about it and reach out to those we don't understand.
The Democrats learned nothing from 2016 and have picked a candidate from the same stock as Clinton and the like.
No they did learn. They learned that America isn't really ready for change, and you need something familiar to get the millions of incredibly conservative people on board. Hence old white man candidate.
even if you have wildly different views, common values can usually be found and some kind of friendship can be struck up.
This. Don't be like the internet.
Some quality but plausible doom mongering on that thread.
The possibility for civil conflifct (not sure I'm going to go so far as to say war) is quite strong. If Trump tries to use the military that will be the big one as there'll be pro-Trump and rationalists all the way through the forces from top to bottom.
There's already plenty of civil conflict going on, not much of it from Trump supporters.
I'm not super worried about conflict if Trump loses, there'll be a lot of shouting and protesting and the odd incident, but it'll fizzle out.
I'm more worried about violence if Trump wins.
Getting nasty in NC.
https://twitter.com/AllHumanREqual/status/1322642374628118528
Trouble in Texas
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1322721716855033857
I've got the dubious pleasure of being on a night shift, so I'll get to watch a fair bit of it. I'm very pessimistic about this one. Every time I've had any sort of optimism the outcome has been awful. The future's bleak. The future's orange.
I still hope to be wrong, and that the predictions above, and in the main thread come to fruition.
Bookies offering 50/1 for a Trump win. Probably worth a tenner on that for all you pessimists!
Bookies offering 50/1 for a Trump win. Probably worth a tenner on that for all you pessimists!
Unfortunately this is just an eye catching headline to get you to join the betting site, think you can only bet £1 max and the winnings are paid as free bets.
I've got £20 on Trump which will net me £40, if his odds get longer over the next couple of days I'll be increasing my stake. Obviously I hope he loses but I think its going to be close and he's already laid the groundwork to steal this if there's any ambiguity.
Unfortunately this is just an eye catching headline to get you to join the betting site, think you can only bet £1 max and the winnings are paid as free bets.
Ah, see this is why I don't bet, I'm too naive and gullible.. or am I too cynical? Both maybe!
Well the good news is that the documents that prove Biden's guilt beyond doubt have been found. Thank god, the public have a right to know!
Though, the fact that this happened on Thursday and we have yet to see them almost makes me suspicious that no such evidence ever existed and that it was all just a play for time from some pretty desperate people after their half-arsed laptop scam failed miserably..
Though, the fact that this happened on Thursday and we have yet to see them almost makes me suspicious that no such evidence ever existed and that it was all just a play for time from some pretty desperate people after their half-arsed laptop scam failed miserably..
Tucker's team actually gave evidence in court that his programme shouldn't be thought of as presenting 'actual facts', but instead 'engaging in exaggeration'.
Bookies offering 50/1 for a Trump win. Probably worth a tenner on that for all you pessimists!
I’ll have some of that. Where did you see it? Best I can see is 5/1.
The best available are no better than 15/8.
A 4 way accumulator at William Hill, using odds at 2pm and based on £20 stake will return £2,504:
- Biden to win
- Dems to take presidency, win senate and hold house
- Biden to win 360 - 389 electoral college votes
- trump to win 150 - 179 electoral college votes
I’ll have some of that. Where did you see it?
On my FB feed but as above, I didn't read the small print.
Probably worth doing that then, not nearly as good an offer as it seems!
It is feeling very 2016 again. Voter enthusiasm is at odds with most of the polls.
I’m feeling more than a bit pessimistic about the result 😟
Can’t help feeling the underlying support among the Trump faction will come out in droves where it counts whereas the Biden faction may pay too much attention to the polls that put them ahead in the same places and as a result may be less inclined to get out as they think they’ve got it in the bag....
I really hope I’m wrong, and the figures are a bit / lot stronger for Biden, but all ( nearly ) polls gave 2016 to Hillary, and look what happened then.
Trump may be a has been bankrupt, in it for himself and really not all bothered with the well being of the country at large
BUT
He does know how to spin a yarn and fool a lot of the people a lot of the time 😢
The best available are no better than 15/8.
That in itself is pretty worrying. I'd assumed the odds would be much longer than that from the way everyone's been talking. 😕
I guess it's only a two horse race, but still...
I guess it’s only a two horse race, but still…
People on the ground (as opposed to those quoting polls) think so.
It's certainly doable for trump
He lost the popular vote by 3 million last time but still got it!
The swing states will be crucial
That's why he & the republicans will be throwing everything they can at voter suppression and disqualifying postal votes etc - he's spent a year undermining them!
As ever with Trump, there's no real low bar he wont cross, no matter how damaging it is to the USA (parallels with cummings/brexit abound)
That in itself is pretty worrying. I’d assumed the odds would be much longer than that from the way everyone’s been talking.
Bookies odds aren't a reflection of how likely something is. They are a reflection of how much money they are going to lose if you win. That's why odds change all the time as people bet, when the chances of whatever it is stay the same.
No, they are a reflection of both. I used to work for William Hill molgrips 😉
Edit: ignore that, I’m confusing myself.
On that accumulator at William Hill. I always like a small bet on these things, and thought that's worth a punt
However on their site (laptop and mobile) there's no option for accumulator (there is for footie etc). Am I doing something wrong or has that window closed?
An advice appreciated!
Cheers
Anyone listen to Jenna Ellis defending Trump’s “poll watchers” on Americast? Utterly staggering. 🤪
I would say it's technically not an accumulator as the events are related, will probably be some kind of special market. I can't check cos I've blocked gambling sites on my laptop!
No, they are a reflection of both. I used to work for William Hill molgrips
Well yes but surely the probability of something happening is rolled up into the bookie's exposure, no?
And given we don't know how many people have placed bets on an outcome, we as punters can't disentangle the probability from the exposure, can we?
Not trying to mansplain to you, genuinely curious - I may not bet myself but I find this kind of game theory rather interesting.
The initial odds offered by bookmakers are based on calculated probability of results from various bits of data, with some 'house edge' margin added on to give their profit (over many many many bets, over a long time).
So if they reckon if a particular match was played 10 times one team would win only 1 of the games, the actual odds of that team winning one match are 10/1 they reckon, but they will give you odds of say 8.5/1, so there is 15% 'value' in that bet for the bookie, evened out by effectively being repeated thousands/millions of times.
If lots and lots of people go for the same bet, they need to reduce their exposure on that bet winning so they reduce the odds from their starting point. This is why betting on England in football is always stupid as they have short odds from 'patriotic' betting.
In horse racing and greyhounds they also have flagged accounts with notes such as 'connected to x trainer', and when the punter rings up wanting £20k on a 50/1 chance they pretty much immediately slash the odds while they all scramble to quickly stick a bet on that horse with another bookie on their phone. 😛
5/1 on a Republican clean sweep. Bet placed!
If Trump wins I think I will lose all faith in humanity how can someone be so bad at their job but still win... Actually Boris seems to have managed it. What ever way this goes I really go think its gonna be all out riots in the states people wont be happy so this so much built up frustration, anger, hurt and hate on both sides its never going to end well.
a Republican clean sweep
What’s that? The House, the Senate and the White House? Or is there another element?
They are already saying it might look like Trump is ahead from the early results that come in and they plan to declare victory and employ lawyers to try and stop counting the rest of the ballots. He's admitted the second part openly to the press. That's also part of the plan to make it look like the Dems have stolen the election to their rabid, armed mass of supporters.
These are truly scary times.
and employ lawyers to try and stop counting the rest of the ballots
How can they do that in a "free" country?
How can they do that in a “free” country?
Hillary in an interview a month ago said their strategy is to not let Biden concede and have an army of lawyers ready to fight in the courts.
Trump is planning on established law being enforced. The evil genius.
Keep in mind that, while it's possible that the polling error favours Biden and Trump might squeak out a narrow electoral college victory if he can win Florida and Pennsylvania, it's just as possible that the polling error favours Trump. Biden has as much chance of winning Texas, giving him a landslide victory, as Trump does of winning Pennsylvania.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1322969948256411648
Trump is planning on established law being enforced.
Utter rubbish. The established law is that individual states are responsible for holding elections to appoint voters to the Electoral College. In some states, only votes that are received by election day are counted, in others, votes that are postmarked by election day are accepted. One of the major reasons for this is that military personnel serving overseas may face delays in having their ballots delivered.
Final vote counts are neither possible nor required on election day. The definitive tally of votes won't be known until every eligible vote is counted, which may take a week or more (following the applicable state law). In many cases (California, for example), the margin for one party is so overwhelming that late ballots cannot possibly change the outcome. In that case, an unofficial result will be published by newspapers, but the official result is never, ever announced on election day (because that's the law). If enough states have big margins like that, the overall winner will be obvious the next day, so the traditional thing is for the losing candidate to concede and let everyone get on with things.
What Trump is trying to claim is that only votes that are counted on election day should be accepted, i.e. that no late votes should be accepted, regardless of the law. That is absolutely not a valid legal position, there's no serious question about that. He knows it's bollocks, but it serves to rile up his supporters and gives him a rationale for refusing to concede, even if it's blindingly obvious that he's lost. Nothing to do with the law, just a desperate attempt to avoid acknowledging that he is a loser.
Worth a read.
In summary mail in votes skew a little toward Democrats but the main difference is the huge disparity between urban and rural areas. Rural areas, with fewer people have the votes counted much quicker than urban areas. Urban areas skew massively toward Democrats.
In states like Pennsylvania where they don't allow ballots to be processed ahead of election day this is a huge issue as it could take more than a week to count all the votes.
Trump declares himself the winner and calls all the "late" votes fraudulent.
Its almost guaranteed, what is interesting is how it will play out.
Can someone explain how to get odds/place a bet for an accumulator like the one mentioned above? I've never gambled before.
I'd just go into the betting shop but all 10 on my street have shut down! 2020 sure is wacky
At William hill on the betting page scroll down past the sports and look at US presidential elections #yourodds
And given we don’t know how many people have placed bets on an outcome, we as punters can’t disentangle the probability from the exposure, can we?
Well you won't know how much people have bet via the bookies, but if there's a market for it on a betting exchange, then you should be able to see exactly how much money has been backed and layed at each price, both matched an unmatched.
Betfair exchange here seemed to have politics and the US election markets listed, but showed no markets for me (but then I'm in Germany where afaik betting exchanges are "banned", rather than UK where they are big business). I imagine it's a shed load of $, £ and € bet, and rather liquid too.
all 10 on my street have shut down!
You should have supported your local betting shops a bit more. The whole industry is struggling due to the unfair decision to stop it taking a week's wages off some poor addict every five minutes. 🙂
At William hill on the betting page scroll down past the sports and look at US presidential elections #yourodds
I've tried this. It'll let you place multiple bets, but no option for an accumulator (which it gave when I tried a load of bets on football to see if it would be an option).
Can only assume that the poster who mentioned it hadnt actually tried to place it, but had just done the maths on what a payout would be (it's a process of multiplying the odds against each other). I placed a couple of bets anyway and hedged with their sign-up offer of a £50 credit (10 £5 bets) for an unsuccessful £1 bet on Trump to win.
Anyone who takes the Republican clean sweep option is nuts btw, that means Reps win President and control of Senate and House. Whatever else happens there is no way that the GOP will take control of the house, no way!
As above it's not really an accumulator like football matches IMO because the outcome of one is related to the likely outcome of the others.
There's an option there for clean sweep, but it's 4/1 now not 5/1
I think if it wasn't for 2016 and all the other surprising bullshit that's happened in the last 10 years, we'd be talking about how big Biden's win will be. He's 10 points ahead nationally and at least possibly going to win in Texas, which would be unthinkable at any other time.
The Democrats have done what they needed to, okay Biden isn't Bernie or Corbyn so those of a very left of centre persuasion think he's worse than Trump, but he's not.
Is he too old, probably, is he slightly handicapped by his Brain injuries, maybe, but it's not like Trump is completely sane or even of average intelligence. More importantly, is he White, Middle-Class and Folksy? Yes he is, so he nullifies a lot of Trumps rhetoric. Like it or not, Americans are generally racist, it's a racist country. They have very sharp racial lines.
I think Biden will win, the Democrats are downplaying their chances because they don't want it to seem too easy lest millions of voters decide they don't need to vote. The bigger questions are:
Will Trump go quietly, I mean obviously he won't. He certainly won't concede, he doesn't have the backbone to admit he's lost, there will be accusation of fraud, conspiracy theories, probably court action the lot, but will he actually leave the White House in January?
Will the Democrats win congress? Obama, as great a statesman as he was, didn't achieve nearly as much as he could, because the Democrats couldn't pass laws.
Anyone who takes the Republican clean sweep option is nuts btw, that means Reps win President and control of Senate and House. Whatever else happens there is no way that the GOP will take control of the house, no way!
Exactly. Trump might have a 10% chance of winning, Republicans might have a 35% chance of holding the Senate, but Democrats probably have a 99% chance of retaining the House. That means a 3.5% chance of having the Senate and White House, but a 0.035% chance of all three. That's assuming they're independent, which they're not, but it's getting too close to E-Day for things like terrorist attacks to drive voters to change their minds. That leaves polling error as the most likely reason for Republicans to win against the polls, but the polling errors will tend to be more independent. Short version, putting money on Republicans winning all three is basically just burning money. You'd need odds of 5000 to 1 to make it worthwhile.
those of a very left of centre persuasion think he’s worse than Trump,
No, they do not.
That’s also part of the plan to make it look like the Dems have stolen the election to their rabid, armed mass of supporters.
The armed mass supporters... they are just gun voyeurs, they show and tell, they bring their guns and to show you and tell you that they will do this or that, but in reality the moment the majority use them in anger will be the end of that type of gun ownership in the US, and they know it.