[Closed] This 'critical threat' stuff

hard to tell , and i suspect you own political bias plays into your interpretation [ and mine] but I hope she is doing the right thing

Politically she may well be glad we are not discussing her dementia tax shambles but none of us will know for sure the true reason ;this speculative thread is all a bit pointless

this speculative thread is all a bit pointless

Edit; I can't help but think that the 'right thing to do' would be to postpone the election by a set period to let us get back onto an even keel. At this rate we'll still be reeling and feeling unsafe when we go to the polls.

I also think there is a time to switch of the tribal politics , now is the time
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You are wrong; this is not political opportunism. It is national security.

Prime Ministers take advice from National Security Council and Joint Intelligence Committee; it is these two organisations which recommend changes to the national threat level.

Prime Minister acts as the mouthpiece.

You should not attempt to conflate two wholly separate issues. Your post reads like an attempt to make cheap political capital out of a tragedy.

Yep, as per Junkyard and Frank, above.

And, really, just what do you expect May to do? Ignore it and pretend all is well?

What? PM mobilises us squaddies to go pull some dull gate duty while the Police trained for this type of scenario get freed up to do their actual job of policing and public protection? Yeah, political opportunism... 🙄

is it not worryingly more likely to be on the back of the arrests made today?

Whilst maybe not quite as cynical as you I do sadly think all the big hitters second or third thought would have been how to ensure they came across as priministorial when talking about it on tv. Also where to pitch their words to appeal to the bigots for whom this sort a horrendous act is confirmation of their views and not loose the muslim vote. I guess I don't hold politicians or their words in very high regard any more.

Looking at it from the other angle....what logic made the middle of an election campaign a good time to plan a terrorist attack? Or as a 22 year old extremist caught up in your own version of reality would he have even have noticed there was an election campaign on?

Well, I hope you're all right, and that her actions are reasonable, proportionate and most importantly, effective in protecting the public. Time will tell, I suppose. As my OP stated; I completely accept that I'm feeling rather cynical and fed up at the moment; I suspected political mileage being made out of tragedy, and voiced my concern in the safest space for comment that I know; here! Thanks for the correction.

The government don't set the threat level, it's the security services. As a serving cop, I have no love for May, but to suggest she is trying to create political capital out of this.......

You are wrong; this is not political opportunism. It is national security.

This.

We're due to hold a massive international event here in Cardiff so security, that was already a bit OTT, is being ramped up right now. Can you imagine the chaos and fallout (not to mention how tempting it would look to the perpetrators) if another attack happens in the international eye so quickly? Barring a national curfew and mass house arrests nothing is going to be out of proportion for the next week or two here. It may be different in other parts of the country, the whole normal life-don't let them win applies, but any big event is going to be locked down as much as possible for a while yet.

Then gets to suggest that it's her 'strong and stable' leadership that kept us all safe

It simply comes down whether you trust your government or not. In times like these people tend do a flip and put faith back in them which I always find odd. So I agree there could be a knock on effect that benefits them.

World is full of heinous stuff though. It's part of every day life unfortunately, the internet makes that loud and clear. Irrespective of political feelings.

I don't think this speculative thread is pointless. Lots of threads are ultimately pointless but some people just need to discuss and get stuff off their chests. I don't like the idea that stuff gets shut down just because it goes into tricky areas of debate.

if the conservatives take advantage of the situation for political gain it tells you all you need to know

Well, they've already shown that they are more than happy to put their own personal interests ahead of the national interest (Exhibit A - Brexit), so the OP is probably not being over-cynical.

I'm more cynical than most when it comes to politicians, particularly the tories.

But, no, I don't think this is politically driven. The attack recently has shown a degree of sophistication and planning beyond the capacity of a single person. Clearly the police have an idea of the people/numbers involved, clearly they haven't located them all and the concern will be that the rest of the cell will bring forward other plans before they located. Hence the escalation.

It's a bit of damned if you do, damned if you don't.

The right wing press would be up in arms if there wasn't an appropriate level of reaction (what happened in France after the '15 attacks) and if there is a further attack , a lack of a suitably robust response could be electorally significant. Just not going to be allowed by a Tory govt... (Strong & stable?)...

Interesting that the initial news coverage I heard had the police making political capital that the reduction on numbers (20,000 officers lost?) meant that they didn't have the manpower, lack of armed officers, etc. I don't think the government had an option. Bearing in mind the police comments of lack of manpower...

I seem to remember that since 2010 that the tories have cut police numbers by 20000. That suggests to me how they regard the threat.

I doubt the change in level is political, as weve heard there is a mechanism in place and must be some substantive reason.

I do worry though that the outcome will be more votes for blue, they make the noises some people want to hear about immigration and the 'strong and stable' narritive is more likely to appeal.

It all just raises emotions when whats really needed is some calm and critical thought about the cause of such tragedies.

Corbyns more likely to provide that but when he does the DM types use his words for political advantage.

I'm not sure they had any option. Until they know otherwise they have to assume there is another attack very likely quite soon. In both Brussels and Paris you had multiple attacks planned with one attacker backing out in Paris. If there is a risk of a second person being out there having changed their mind then yes they need a much higher profile and a different operating environment

Well, they've already shown that they are more than happy to put their own personal interests ahead of the national interest (Exhibit A - Brexit), so the OP is probably not being over-cynical.

Corbyn was campaigning on a leave ticket since 1983, I distinctly remember that the referendum campaign had people from all sides campaigning leave or remain.

I suggest you wear a tin foil hat for the rest of the year

It's mainly to do with the fact that Police and Mi5 don't know if he made the bomb on his own, or whether there is a bomb maker out there that has gone undetected and could've made others

Wot frank said. May will have been given recommendations from the security services as to the threat level and the escalation would have been agreed at the COBRA meeting. Plus, FA Cup final this w/e, big event, high profile.

As someone who is going to spend all of Sunday at an event with 10s of thousands of people crammed into a relatively small area with historically very hard to manage security this critical stuff isn't going unwelcomed.

Imagine if the PM did not escalate the security status and something else happened?

As spekkie suggests.

it does, as well though, have the handy by-product of making you look a serious and statesmanlike politician in many peoples eyes though

Reported on R4 this morning that it was the police who requested it was raised for legitimate operational and security concerns.

Doubt that will stop the pointless political point scoring here and elsewhere, sadly.

It's not a byproduct of 'looking' serious and statesmanlike - it IS being serious and statesmen like. The PM is unlikely to raise the threat level unilaterally without taking a recommendation from the security services even if it were possible for her to do so. She wouldn't get away with it anyway. There are actual consequences of doing that it's not just something that is done to make people feels safer and more secure. Additional resources will be deployed and activity will be happening as a result. I suspect part of the normal process will be to justify the raising of the threat level with real evidence of a concern/worry to prevent people just doing it on a whim or even as a 'just in case' measure.

While I have a great distrust of anything May says/does, this is a rock and a hard place type of situation.

Best to play safe and that's what she is doing. Hopefully no more families will have their loved young ones torn from them.

Perhaps she might see benefit in more police out in the community after this.

Meanwhile, we're more at risk riding our bikes, so take care out there.

I seem to remember that since 2010 that the tories have cut police numbers by 20000. That suggests to me how they regard the threat.

Agree. Reduce numbers, increase risk. No obvious direct link to the bombing but should have been consideration when reducing.
Guessing would be seen as political point scoring if pressing May on it now.

I don't believe for one minute that this is political bias, there are a lot of big sporting events on very soon and whilst the Forces and Police are undermanned it's the only option "she" has. But it will suit her political beliefs, and place fear in the Public domain again.

I think the election should be put back a month or 2. Where she should or not I think will gain points from being a 'leader' in times of crisis. Her faults should not be forgotten though.

As has been said raising the threat level to Critical isn't just a fairly meaningless thing for public consumption that political capital can be gained from. The government agency I work for (not directly) acts upon it and has just sent around updated guidance, lets just say getting into certain premises has changed along with a greater armed presence and more frequent routine searches - real things happen based on the threat level not just newspaper headlines.
Even if it were up to the PM to decide on the threat level, what would you do in her shoes? Not raise it and risk massive fallout if another attack happens or raise it in the knowledge there are more than likely other active cells in the country and there may be a degree of coordination between them so that it would be prudent to take additional security measures?

Some google-fu shows that the JTAC set the treat level, not the PM (although I would imagine they would be in close contact/agreement over the level).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Threat_Levels

Political capital, no.

Working in a potential target area we have been taking this seriously for a long while now, how we have any effect on stopping a lone wolf attack I don't know. We know the after effects of terrorism all too well.

I think the election should be put back a month or 2.

Where she should or not I think will gain points from being a 'leader' in times of crisis.

We have reached this threat level before. By its very nature it can only be a short term thing, and I expect it will have relaxed to the previous level before we go to the polls on the 8th June. Mrs May will have little impact (good or bad) on how long it takes to get there.

So JTAC recommend a higher threat level and the police (who probably don't like May very much) request Operation Temperer, then you conclude that these two independent organisations are part of the Tory political campaign?

Chuck your bias in the bin and top trying to make political capital out of the deaths. I don't see how anyone could read the reports of the dead (and 8 year old FFS) and say that "It's all working out perfectly"

OP - I had exactly the same thought, and I can't shake it.

And I think it's brave of you to say it, to be honest - I wanted to, but dared only speak of it to my wife.

Which is terrible.

Free speech means it should be easy for us to discuss such things, and to be allowed to think them. It is an objective possibility that May is taking political advantage from a terrible turn of events - she certainly wouldn't be the first.

Of course there are many unknowns, sensitivities and what-not, but, in the balance of things, I believe that this is May being extremely cynical and politically opportunistic.

Of course it goes without saying that I might be wrong, and in a perverse way, I hope I am.

But that doesn't mean I can't have thoughts of my own, and it certainly doesn't mean I should be prevented from expressing them "at such a difficult time", whatever emotions Mrs Strong-and-Stable would prefer us all to be blinded by.

If there is an attack with an explosive device, past history tells us there is likely to be other people involved, and that they may attack as soon as possible before they are discovered. The threat level is correct, 'till more is known.

^^ Like

Here we go again.
This is not political; it is a clear matter of national security.
PM has been advised by JTAC - which is a politically independent body - to raise the threat level.
@iffoverload - take your views to one of the political threads where you might find some like-minded simple souls who share your views.

I think the last time it was critical was after a terrorist attack so it is entirely normal that it is again. This might make May look good but really it is not deliberate on her part or cynical.

However I am sure that any momentum Labour had will be halted and also May's terrible interview with Andrew Neil forgotten.

@frankconway

OP:

does it not just stink of massive political opportunism on the back of a horrendous and despicable event?

The cause of this is entirely political or are you suggesting it is a sport of some kind?

take your spreadsheet-minded mentality and share it with your complex kind 😉

Raising the threat level is clearly a security decision, and non-political.

It's possible to think this and also think that our actions in the middle east may be linked to this awful situation, so why was iffoverload's post removed? Is it offensive to point out that we have been bombing various middle eastern countries for the last 15 years or so? And pointing out that there may be a connection between this and these appalling acts of terrorism?

Don't forget that the security forces are political animals as well, they will be pushing for more funding and more staff and will take any opportunity to demonstrate their 'importance' to the nation (remember them driving tanks around Heathrow).

£ per life the money would probably be better spent on improving road safety (more than 22 people die on UK roads every week) than on putting troops on the streets...............