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Kelvin's take on Labour loss - it's all about the vaccine bounce and Starmer is doing fine
Kelvin's take on Conservative loss - Starmer is doing fine even though they came in dead last behind Lib Dems and their win showed that the first point is nonsense
Also, look at the polls and other results kelvin, it all suggests Labour are doing terribly - people don't just make this stuff up out of nothing.
I think the Libdems may have second thoughts about that after it near killed them last time.
This.
They have been in the wilderness for the tuition fee thing, despite it being a Tory change to a funding model brought in by Labour. But it was the LibDems fault.
The changes we have seen since the end of the coalition have shown how much worse the coalition years would have been without the LibDems having a (minor) sway on Tory policy.
If people genuinely want to get rid of the Tories, a lot of people are going to have to grow up, hold their noses and vote tactically, and it wod help if the LibDems, Labour, Greens etc would organise themselves to allow this, with electoral reform the first agreed priority for the new government.
Kelvin’s take on Labour loss – it’s all about the vaccine bounce and Starmer is doing fine
Kelvin’s take on Conservative loss – Starmer is doing fine even though they came in dead last behind Lib Dems and their win showed that the first point is nonsense
I've never said Starmer is doing fine. I still think he has zero chance of becoming PM and is the wrong person to lead Labour into a general election. I don't think Hartlepool was really about the vaccine bounce, I think it was about English Nationalists going from the Brexit Party to the party Johnson has made into a Tory UKIP. I am glad that in this seat people not voting Tory got behind the LibDems and removed a Conservative MP rather than spreading their vote thinly between the LibDems, the Green Party and Labour. I want to see more intelligent voting in opposition to Johnson and his project.
Labour are the weak link in cross party cooperation, (generalising) but they seem to think everyone should step aside for them.
There are some MPs pushing for it, Clive Lewis is a good example, but by and large, that's a fair summary.
I think there will be a bit of a backlash when the local voters realise:
- the "local" candidate reportedly lives 30 miles away in West London and has been somewhat creative with her home address
- their new "Business woman" MP reportedly doesn't seem to have any business at all save for some paid campaign work from her only client - the Lib Dems
- the "anti HS2" Lib Dems is led by Sir Ed Davey who voted for HS2 at every opportunity.
Ah… Ernie is here ....
You make it sound as if you are not too comfortable with me expressing my opinions Kelvin, is it because they are not the same as yours?
Anyway let me expand with more things which you undoubtedly won't agree with but will lack the ability to counter and instead simply rely on making it clear that you don't agree.
I actually think it was a very good result for Johnson it proves that he is on the way to win the next general election. He knows the LibDems can't win the next general election, everyone knows that, but he now knows that based on what happened yesterday Labour aren't on track to win it either.
It would actually have been a worse result for the Tories if they had won yesterday but Labour had significantly increased their share of the vote.
Only Labour can defeat the Tories. They won't do it with 1.6% share of the vote. Or even double that. Or anything even remotely close to that.
The question is how did the LibDems do so well yesterday compared to Labour? Well it's unlikely to because their leader whose name no one remembers has so much more appeal than Keir Starmer.
Firstly by-elections aren't won at a national level. And secondly I have enough experience in election work, including by-elections and both against LibDem candidates and for LibDem candidates (I once helped in a successful LibDem campaign to oust a sitting Tory MP) to know that the LibDems would have thrown everything at that by-election, it's what they do and it's what they are very good at.
I have never been to the constituency but I have no doubt that the voters will have been bombarded with both material and people knocking on their doors.
LibDems campaigns like this are very much policy led. They will have stated their views and policies very clearly and voters would have known what they were voting for, or at least thought they knew what they were voting for.
I suspect that the 1.6% who voted Labour didn't have a clue what they were voting for, other than the Labour Party.
I wasn't there, maybe I'm wrong, but it's an educated guess based on experience.
We're used to having an MP who doesn't live in the constituency. Cheryl Gillian sold her Amersham house in 2012 and moved back to her main house in Epsom.
It didn't stop her spending a lot of time in the constituency. She was generally a good constituency MP and quite responsive.
Amersham is only 27 miles from Hyde Park Corner so not sure where in West London is 30 miles away?
He knows the LibDems can’t win the next general election, everyone knows that, but he now knows that based on what happened yesterday Labour aren’t on track to win it either.
I agree that neither the LibDems or Labour are on course to win the next general election. I don’t want the Conservatives to win either. It’ll take the Tories losing seats to both parties (and probably others) for them to lose their grip on power.
Only Labour can defeat the Tories.
I'm more pessimistic. I think Labour are decades away from defeating the Tories on their own. Waiting for that only benefits the Tories.
It would actually have been a worse result for the Tories if they had won yesterday but Labour had significantly increased their share of the vote.
Holding onto seats on less than 50% of the votes in that kind of seat is key to him and his party staying in power. A sign that in previously safe Tory seats voters might get wise to that won't be welcomed by them at all.
power. A sign that in safe Tory seats voters might get wise to that won’t be welcomed by them at all.
The wonderful and unique thing about by-elections, when there is a large majority government, is that voters can indulge in voting for whoever they fancy. Because they know that it will not make an iota of difference to the government. They know that, Johnson knows that.
I think we should just take a moment to enjoy the fact that, in one small part of this country, there are enough people who aren't thick racists.
The wonderful and unique thing about by-elections, when there is a large majority government, is that voters can indulge in voting for whoever they fancy.
Yes, having no fear of a Corbyn government would have made it easier for some who voted Tory at the last General Election to switch to voting LibDem at this by-election. They may well swap back at the next election (in fact you can put a few quid on it, that's a safe bet). I'm aware the decision making by voters is different at by-elections and general elections. But... the Tories will not want voters to cotton onto just how many "safe" Tory seats could fall with a different pattern of opposition votes. This by-election result could be very bad news for them if used as demonstration of just what can be done.
Posted this in the Starmer thread but it makes more sense here:
I’d like to think this win is a good thing but they’re spinning it as “if we can win here we can win everywhere” and that’s just not the takeaway from this election, nor is it the right approach for the 4th party… they seem intent on making the Swinson mistakes again.
Let’s be honest, they won because of a combination of tactical voting, and because a long serving and immensely popular MP died and the tory turnout collapsed. There’s little evidence of them winning significant tory votes. But they’re not acting like they know either of those things. It’s possible it’s all just front and they know what’s really happening, but in the light of the last election I don’t think that can be assumed. And tbf after Swinson they should be working hard to show that they’re not still living in a fantasy world.
A friend from amersham put it down to 3 things. 1) The previous mp was in for ages and was returned to seat because they were liked. 2) Lots of young people have moved there out of London recently 3) There was anger about a market town building being torn down to be replaced.
I think the only one of those that can be extrapolated to the country at large is the exodus of lefty youngsters out of london. Although I suspect they will be mostly heading for places that are already "not Tory" areas. Sheffield for example seems to be sucking up a lot of Londoners but it's mostly already labour seats.
nor is it the right approach
Agreed.
See Clive Lewis' comments as regard Davey's and Moran's responses that I posted up the page ^^^
They picked the wrong leader again.
This by-election result could be very bad news for them if used as demonstration of just what can be done.
What this by-election result proves is that, at the present at least, there is no current Labour Party revival taking place.
That really isn't very bad news for Johnson. He fears Labour, not the LibDems. Although currently he's probably fearing no one, other than possibly Dominic Cummings.
Oh and btw well done for somehow managing to blame Corbyn for the LibDems doing well, I'm sure Keir Starmer is very grateful for your support.
What this by-election shows is that a seat that the Tories have held without a break for my entire life can be lost by Johnson. Yeah, I'm sure he's not concerned at all.
Oh, and yes, there are people (I know many) who held their noses and voted Conservative at the last General Election, in seats were the LibDems have in the past been in contention or indeed held, because the ..." vote LibDem get Corbyn as PM " line sank home with them. I think they were wrong to fear Corbyn (I voted Labour) but they absolutely did. These people are not scared of Starmer. They're not inspired by him either, and that's a big problem for Labour... he's dull.
Oh and btw well done for somehow managing to blame Corbyn for the LibDems doing well, I’m sure Keir Starmer is very grateful for your support.
I’ve said before, I think we’ll end up with US style party views where (and I’m vastly over simplifying it here) the rich and the work class vote Tory/Republican and the middle class vote Labour/LibDem/Democrat.
So an alliance of some kind works well.
In any case, reasonably well-heeled, reasonably well-educated, middle class service sector workers aren't really Johnson's audience nowadays.
I'm sure there are some people from Hartlepool (for example) who would vote Libdem, but they would be the ones who most likely moved to somewhere like Amersham. 🤣
Yeah, I’m sure he’s not concerned at all.
Who said not concerned at all? I said that it could have been a worse result even if they had won. A worse result would have been wining by a small majority and Labour doubling their support signalling a revival of Labour fortunes.
Why do you have to take everything I say to extremes Kelvin? I recently said that I didn't know "loads of people who love Boris Johnson", you somehow managed to change that to "I don't know anyone who likes or supports Boris Johnson". Now you are suggesting that I'm saying he's not bothered about losing a Conservative seat.
Try to be a tad more sophisticated Kelvin and understand the nuances in life.
Who said not concerned at all?
You said it was a very good result for Johnson.
He lost a seat his party has never lost before.
I'm bored now.
Try to be a tad more sophisticated Kelvin and understand the nuances in life.
What are the nuances in racism/xenophobia as you see them?
Briefly shown the view on Beachy head would be my idea.
Amersham. *Amersham*!!! Good God.
*rsl1*, my OH is from there and says (while chortling) similar.
- Previous MPs well liked, one-nation/Wet types.
- HS2
- Old people dying off and their big suburban houses being knocked down and replaced with flats for people who would (normally) be commuting into London - replacing one or two true blue Tory voters with 6 younger Remain voters unimpressed with the current unbusinesslike shenanigans.
.
Four years ago Labour came second and received 20% of the vote, yesterday they came fourth and received 1.6% of the vote.
If changing demographics played a significant role in the shock by-election result yesterday how many flats have they built in Amersham in the last four years?
And how many old people have died in the last four years? What's killing them?
Just goes to show that the people of Amersham are bigger NIMBYs than they are racists.
If people genuinely want to get rid of the Tories, a lot of people are going to have to grow up, hold their noses and vote tactically, and it wod help if the LibDems, Labour, Greens etc would organise themselves to allow this,
I don't think the problem is the individuals, its the parties. I can't see LibDems and Labour agreeing to not put candidates in each other's hot seats, even agreeing to campaign less there seems unlikely. The tories (and minorities) will jump on it - and spin that to bring out the "vote lib dem get Starmer who's not capable of getting there by himself" or "vote labour get limp dem", and probably a degree of "vote for this pact, and lose the union".
with electoral reform the first agreed priority for the new government.
I don't think that's a vote winner. You could use a pact to oust the tories and get support for it, but a pact to get ourselves in power and focus on how WM works and keeping ourselves in power is not going to go down well. It should probably be before the end of the next parliament but not the first priority. They'd stand more chance saying a pact to get rid of corruption and cronyism, perhaps using that as an argument for major lords reform.
I have noticed a lot of people I know that usually vote Tory are openly criticising them a lot more, especially Boris. I get the feeling their patience is starting to wear out with him and the direction the party has gone, hopefully a few more results like this could get a bit of momentum going. While it may not remove them from power it could have the effect of changing their direction and calming down some of the excesses.
I think the only one of those that can be extrapolated to the country at large is the exodus of lefty youngsters out of london. Although I suspect they will be mostly heading for places that are already “not Tory” areas. Sheffield for example seems to be sucking up a lot of Londoners but it’s mostly already labour seats.
this has also been happening in North Hertfordshire. Pre brexit it was also 'donkey with blue rosette' territory - and Peter Lilley for all his Thatchery flaws was a very engaged local MP once he retired from frontline. At the general ellection, the tory majority was whittled down drastically by the lib dem candidate (who has a side hussle as an F1 TV guy). We are now a marginal!
Policy wise was likely an anti Brexit thing, the new tory guy was super brexity, even though his consituency was very remain heavy.
Demographics also changed massively, with the true blues dying off and being replaced by young professionals, lots of whom work for Google, judging by all the hoodies you see on the train platform in the morning
Not really. Tactical voting innit?
Pmsl..other week it was all about the vaccine bounce and no other party could hope to compete.
fabulous
I have noticed a lot of people I know that usually vote Tory are openly criticising them a lot more, especially Boris. I get the feeling their patience is starting to wear out with him and the direction the party has gone
I'm hearing a lot of this, but when push comes to shove in an important election I fear "yes, but Starmer/Corbyn/anyone without a blue rosette" will win out
and it wod help if the LibDems, Labour, Greens etc would organise themselves to allow this, with electoral reform the first agreed priority for the new government
Electoral reform is well overdue, and it will take everyone to work together on it.
I have noticed a lot of people I know that usually vote Tory are openly criticising them a lot more, especially Boris
My in-laws are life long Tory voters, MiL a Daily Wail reader. For the first time ever my wife (who is visiting them) was hearing frustration with BoJo's behaviour and regret over Brexshit from them last night.