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Good 🙂
A lot of different takes on this one.
It’s a seat the LDs were usually second in. Also there was a decent amount of Lab\Green tactical voting to GTTO, along with disaffected centre-right Tories who feel their votes have been taken for granted. Plus the Tory candidate comes across as a bit of a plank.
Big questions are whether this can be repeated in a GE, and whether it’s a sign of trying to appeal to the red wall at the expense of the Home Counties Tory heartlands, many of which were also Remainia, is starting to backfire.
622 votes for Labour - that seems pretty terrible.
622 votes for Labour – that seems pretty terrible.
Not really. Tactical voting innit?
It means that a large majority of the voters in this constituency wanted the Tories out and voted for the most likely candidate to ensure that happened.
I wouldn't try and read much more into it than that, though many will
That slow clap by the Conservative candidate was great. What a plonker.
Amersham has been a Tory safe seat since I was a baby, something seismic is happening there for such a swing. Some locals have expressed a view that the party in government no longer represents their interests, others have expressed dismay at the Tory "culture war" that's playing well to former red wall constituents.
Although Labour tanked, there was a realisation that tactical voting was key to booting out the nasties.
Isn't this just a NIMBYism vote over HS2 & green belt changes - nothing to get het up about nationally?
The government have made it clear that they are in office to serve property developers. In this seat, that really hasn't gone down well.
nothing to get het up about nationally?
True. But our "national" elections are really just hundreds of elections for local candidates. This could still mean one more seat (and a few other similar seats) being taken/kept from the Conservatives, even if the reasons why don't apply at all in many (most) other seats.
It's a remarkable result. The key seemed to be HS2, but I get the impression Labour, knowing they had no chance, and probablly knowing the Libs strategy, didn't turn up.
I'm sure Boris has woken (if he's up yet) with WTF plastered all over his face. Boris will be starting to feel the pain that Labour have been feeling, by moving away from centre to chase votes, they're alienating their base. Amersham and Chesham voted to Remain by a healthy majority, this might to be a very late protest vote about Brexit, but it's an indication they're probably very CENTRE-right and this new, centre-RIGHT Tory party can't rely on them, if there's a compelling reason to vote elsewhere.
From Labour's point of view, I suppose it's a good result, even though they did so badly. I've being reading about Amersham, it's not exactly Labour Land.
The Libdems will be delighted no doubt, they haven't been able to win a raffle for years, I have no idea who their leader was until I read the link above.
IMHO it again raises an important question for both Labour and the Libs, the Libs won, at least in part, because Labour didn't turn up. Some of the more seasoned, Labour figures have been talking about at least a pact with the Libs at the next election, if not a merger. It makes sense, Labour itself is a merged Party (there's the old Co-Op party buried in there) and of course the Libs are a Labour spin-off party. We've talked for years about UKIP leeching votes from the Tories (they took votes from Labour too) but how many Tory MPs got their position because they beat a Labour or Lib Dem candidate by 3% when the 3rd place candidate took 10%.
The Libs can't win the next election, or the one after that. Labour could, even an agreement not to field candidates in no-hope constituencies would make a huge difference.
I agree with P Jay. It's just a shame that my local Tory scumbag got more votes than all the others put together and we are a remain area.
the Libs are a Labour spin-off party.
Well… kind of.
There was a really interesting (if you are a Lib Dem) recent episode of the Lib Dem podcast with John Curtice, which essentially said that appealing to more prosperous pro-Remain suburban seats with a high proportion of graduates was likely to be a way forward for the party, and to be honest this looks like a reflection of this.
Plus a lot of Lab/Green/soft Tories voted tactically, and the Tory candidate is an idiot who has been on social media blaming the electorate for voting the wrong way this morning, something that always plays well when other parties have done it.
That slow clap by the Conservative candidate was great. What a plonker.
Yep, graceless and it probably won't be forgotten by the constituents either. Comments by Sunak to the effect that electing Tory MP is a guarantee of better funding will have enraged many too.
I do think that we'll see some home counties Tory MPs pushing back against policy too. Cuts to overseas aid, trade agreements that will decimate British agriculture, can kicking over social care, the disastrous trade war with the EU and Northern Ireland are of concern to many Tory moderates - both Theresa May and Damien Green have started to express disquiet and still have some influence. The new intake of Tory MPs and candidates post 2017 seem to be ideologically reliable at the expense of ability.
his new,
centre-RIGHT Tory party can’t rely on them, if there’s a compelling reason to vote elsewhere.
The current Tory government is nowhere near the centre.
It's an absolutely enormous swing. I think it does reflect the fact that a lot of traditional Tory voters are appalled at the transformation of the party into UKIP and the problems this toxic nationalism is causing. I doubt they've much time for all this 'culture war' nonsense either.
Comments by Sunak to the effect that electing Tory MP is a guarantee of better funding will have enraged many too.
Pork barrel politics at its finest, now being applied all over the north of England. Vote in a Tory MP and get showered in funding, elect a labour MP and you'll not be seeing a penny
We've got a Tory since 2019 and I can't say I've seen much of this promised funding, though.
I might be being thick here, but how does one Lib Dem MP hope to stop HS2?
We’ve got a Tory since 2019 and I can’t say I’ve seen much of this promised funding, though.
No... me neither. As with everything Boris does, it's all about the promises, not the delivery.
Once he's made the big announcement, he quickly gets bored and wanders off to do something else. Have a whisky or twelve. Shag a Russian violinist. That sort of thing
The pandemic has allowed him to get away with non-delivery. For now. That won't last. At which point its worth remembering that a lot of these new northern Tory MPs are sat on paper-thin majorities. In my constituency its 100 votes
how does one Lib Dem MP hope to stop HS2?
They won't/can't. Politics is weird isn't it... people have already forgotten that Johnson used opposition to Heathrow airport expansion to get votes.
it’s all about the promises, not the delivery
I believe the promises about spending money, but don't expect anything of substance to be delivered. When Johnson talks about "funding", he means diverting our money to his people.
I think it does reflect the fact that a lot of traditional Tory voters are appalled at the transformation of the party into UKIP
I wouldn't be so sure of that, UKIP came second in the 2015 election there.
I grew up in the constituency, it is harder to imagine a place more Tory than that. My parents still live there and are fully signed up Daily Mail reading Tories. But, and it is a big but, HS2 is decimating massive swathes of green belt countryside. It is hard to impress the scale of what is happening, it really is horrific. My parents voted Lib Dem as a result of that. Too little, too late but they still voted against Tory, I expect for the first time in their lives.
Hopefully it might be the start on the road back to respectability as a nation, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
The thing is voting Lib Dem was a safe protest in a by-election. The government / PM wasn't going to change based on the result. You get to make your objection to the status quo known with no risk that by not backing the incumbent you let some even worse (in your view) option in.
Yes only for fun but Green still just have the one seat!
At least its a show of what's possible & I doubt HS2 has too much of a bearing as most people round here are pretty resigned to it by now given the extent of the works carried out so far. Let's not forget that more people voted libdem, Labour or Green than voted Conservative in the last general election so there is a groundswell of anti tory votes available. Wycombe used to be a 20k Conservative majority too but that has been whittled away over the years, keeping my fingers crossed that an electoral pact in the next GE can blast the tory ****s into oblivion 🤞
Vote in a Tory MP and get showered in funding, elect a labour MP and you’ll not be seeing a penny
Ah. Funding.
Golden boy golden shower vs filthy communist money tree. All depends on one’s opinion in a post-truth alt-fact society enmired in an overwhelmingly fake ‘culture war’
Yes only for fun but Green still just have the one seat!
Not relevant to that silly swing map... but most people underestimate just how hard it is to get even a second Green MP, never mind a good handful of them in parliament. Something I find depressing... but also a nice easy explainer for anyone who says, "there's nothing wrong with FPTP, you just need more voters". You don't just need more voters, you need more votes to be carefully placed in the right constituencies, which under FPTP needs cross party organisation and much more public understanding to game the system we have.
I was trying to remember what his name was
But yeah great to see the Tories losing by such a big swing
people have already forgotten that Johnson used opposition to Heathrow airport expansion to get votes.
I'm still waiting for the bulldozer to run him over... Ticktock Boris, Ticktock...
😂
I might be being thick here, but how does one Lib Dem MP hope to stop HS2?
They can't, well obviously if there are any more votes in the Commons in regards HS2 then they will vote on behalf of their constituents.
In reality though, it's more of a warning to the Tories, carry on like this and you might lose more MPs next election.,
Isn’t this just a NIMBYism vote over HS2 & green belt changes
I agree with Dickboy - Cheryl Gillian was very active anti-HS2 but even she could only mitigate the effect of HS2 - extending the tunnel, more running in cuttings etc.
The A413 is shut for HS2 this weekend, there are worksites all along the route already. It's not stoppable.
Green belt - yes, that's more likely but again people realise that with a large majority the government can do what they like. I actual heard it as a reason to vote Conservative - with a Conservative MP you've got more chance of influencing a Conservative government.
I'm with Dominic Greave - I think this was mainly a rejection of the current untrustworthy government.
I'd love to get excited by this but
Big drop in turn out - disaffected Tories not bothering thinking they were safe?
By elections are always affected by low turn out/protest vote
Big effort by the LibDems and tactical voting by GTTO
On the plus side, hopefully people are getting over the whole LibDem coalition/tuition fee thing.
I can see a near future where the choices become voting "nationalist" or voting "liberal" with a small "L". And the North/South split will reflect that, but not in the old Red/Blue way. Funnily enough, my 18 year old said the same thing to me
Johnson knows he's safe with the Red Wall Racists for a bit.
Just goes to show how little of the 'One Nation Tory' party is really left. They might as well re-brand as the ENP now - bovver boots n all.
The thing is voting Lib Dem was a safe protest in a by-election. The government / PM wasn’t going to change based on the result.
Yup, midterm by-elections going against the party in government is to be completely expected.
Parties in power almost always experience a temporary drop in support midterm between general elections.
The fact that the reverse happened recently in Hartlepool is an utter disgrace for the Labour Party and a reflection of the catastrophic crisis it is facing.
Yesterday's by-election result proves how false the narrative peddled by Starmer supporters was that by-elections can't be won due the alleged vaccine bounce. Yesterday's result shows that they can be won even in a seat held by the government.
It won't however make the slightest difference to the Tory hold on power, and it doesn't of course suggest that the LibDems will win the next general election. Nor does it provide the slightest shred of evidence that Labour will defeat the Tories next general election, which is still the only realistic way of defeating a Tory government.
I can't imagine Johnson losing much sleep over yesterday's result, however enthusiastic some people might be.
Anyone got a link to the plank doing the slow clap at the announcement?
Well put ernie. And let’s not forget, for all his ‘knocking down a blue brick wall’ photo-opportunism, Ed Davey will happily jump straight into bed with the tories come the next hung parliament.
I think the Libdems may have second thoughts about that after it near killed them last time.
Anyone got a link to the plank doing the slow clap at the announcement?
you can see it midway through the Dominic Grieve BBC tweet up there 👆
Ah… Ernie is here with his “look away now” line.
He won’t be alone. I’ll summarise how most of the media will summarise by-elections…
Tory loss - it doesn’t make any difference to Johnson or say anything about how the Conservatives are governing, they’re doing a great job
Labour loss - everything Kier Starmer is doing is wrong, and in opposition Labour are not fixing things the Conservatives are getting wrong in government
LibDem loss - the party is no more, do they even have a leader?
Yesterday’s by-election result proves how false the narrative peddled by Starmer supporters was that by-elections can’t be won due the alleged vaccine bounce. Yesterday’s result shows that they can be won even in a seat held by the government.
Yeah but they can still blame Corbyn for Hartlepool somehow (even though he won there).
Parties in power almost always experience a temporary drop in support midterm between general elections.
A 25 point swing though?
Of course it's not seismic but the size of that swing is interesting.
Tory loss - this was very much about local issues, and the specific candidates standing
Labour loss - this is sign that Labour are falling further and further behind across the UK
LibDem loss - they should consider a new party name, or just disband altogether