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What I don't think has been mentioned on this thread (but I've certainly put across this view elsewhere) is autonomous driving. This enables what is in effect a subscription taxi service and is I think where Google/Uber/Apple/Dyson when they were in it are all looking towards.
There's certainly more development to do on the tech (and masses on the ethics and legal responsibilities side) but the combination of cameras, lidar and processing power is here now.
With that there is the chance to have a huge culture shift away from personal ownership and that gets over lots of the charging/range/parking/capacity issues mentioned above. Especially if combined with more flexible working practices. I think given the 15-20yr time horizon this is possible.
Personal cars are used just 2% of the time - but with massive rush-hour peaks so for example if you had a range of subscription models e.g:
1. Basic car, low cap on annual mileage, cleaned once a day, 30 min response time
2. Mid range car, mid mileage, cleaned x2, 10 min response time
3. Mid range car.....willing to share with 1 other
4. Flexi choice of car size depending on what's needed.
5. Exec car.........or different combinations.....you get the idea
Car called from app, self drives to pick up point, can self drive journey or could be a person drive option, car pool load balenced/located depending on state of charge and demand.
This model means more usage out of each car - with cleaning, charging and maintenance off road so say a 25th of the number of cars on the road. That would be transformational in terms of the feel of urban UK. Faster journeys. Software calculates a seamless meeting with w second car when that is going out of it's range/home location. No parking at home. No charging at home problems for those with no drive.
Would need big players to provide coverage/response times that work but as long as we can get over the entitled current view that we all need a big german built machine sitting idle on our drive or work car park (guilty as charged) then it seems like a no brainer.
As for grid coping, lol................ and the only thing we seem to be building are low power incinerators with gas turbines attached. The only way we will cope is with imports from Europe, another foreign power to rely on. This is based on the facts of what we have to work with now, not futurist predictions or science fiction.
You seem to have conveniently white washed wind generation out of the equation. Not only are we about to complete the worlds largest offshore wind farm, but it contains the worlds largest turbines, turbines that are so big they never stop turning.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/25/business/worlds-largest-wind-farm/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/01/worlds-largest-wind-turbines-to-be-built-off-yorkshire-coast
And it's not coping, it's co-operation. Norway is predominantly hydro electric, which can be turned on/off fairly easily so can cheaply add to the peaker plants which just provide for the 4pm - 7pm peak demand. It's a no brainer.
http://northsealink.com/en/the-project/why-connect-norway-and-the-uk/
And the Norwegian car importer association expects EVs to account for 55 to 60% of new car sales in 2020. It was 42% in 2019.
EVs aren't the one fix-all solution for all the world's problems, I don't think anyone is claiming that, but they are a totally viable big step in the right direction.
Buying an ICE car now comes with a big risk, I wouldn’t want to buy a new ICE car now with my own money and then try to sell it in 5+ years time.
My next car is going to be a 3.0ltr v6 ! Until such time as someone produces an alternative EV that drives well for the same money. Unfortunately all current EV’s miss out on the overall package and still cost lots more money.
I'm currently listening to engineers talk about electric vehicles in the office.
one is in uproar at the potential for 2.50 to charge his car every night
he doesn't seem to grasp that it wont be 2.50 every night and more so - he spends more than that currently on fuel at the petrol station.
A possible concern regarding secondhand EVs is range loss due to battery deterioration.
I would imagine the market will adapt to this. You compared it to smartphone batteries but there are plenty of services that will replace those for you. I would expect similar services to emerge for fading car batteries. Unless the battery technology shifts they will become a long term consumable in vehicles.
Car called from app, self drives to pick up point, can self drive journey or could be a person drive option
Sounds good in theory, but you are not really describing anything different from an app-enabled taxi service like Uber. Those exist already and very few people consider ditching personal ownership to rely on taxis.
You compared it to smartphone batteries but there are plenty of services that will replace those for you. I would expect similar services to emerge for fading car batteries. Unless the battery technology shifts they will become a long term consumable in vehicles.
Newer EVs have the batteries built into the base chassis as it allows modular vehicle design and allows more room. I can’t see replacing them being straight forward or cheap. I do expect with the design calculating in battery fade that you’ll get more then 8 years out of them before it becomes much of an issue.
Those exist already and very few people consider ditching personal ownership to rely on taxis.
Because you have to pay a person to drive it, it's going to be more expensive right now.
Loads of people I know who used to run two cars now run one + uber or one + car club.
Only really viable in big populations centres though I guess.
I would expect similar services to emerge for fading car batteries.
I'm sure that will happen, but battery cost is 1/3 to 1/2 of the cost of the vehicle, so could double the cost of a secondhand EV. If replacement batteries can be supplied with current technology that will help, but manufacturers may lock you in to using their products, the same way many components on ICE cars are coded to the vehicle.
Sounds good in theory, but you are not really describing anything different from an app-enabled taxi service like Uber. Those exist already and very few people consider ditching personal ownership to rely on taxis.
Depends where you live.
46% of households in London don't own a car. Anecdotally the ones I know just use the buses for 9/10 trips and just have an uber account for the rest. We were working it out and the costs aren't that different to owning a car. I think we came up with a figure of £10 a day for a car (everything included but excluding parking), and the travelcards were £12, but they didn't need one every day because you could just cycle to work most days, get shopping delivered and share an uber on a weekend.
Now that I've changed jobs and no longer need it for work, I'm seriously tempted to ditch my main car. I've tried to convince the OH that we should get rid of hers (which is in worse condition and doesn't have a towbar) but she's having none of it so I'm kinda stuck with paying the overhead running costs of it!
I’m sure that will happen, but battery cost is 1/3 to 1/2 of the cost of the vehicle, so could double the cost of a secondhand EV. If replacement batteries can be supplied with current technology that will help, but manufacturers may lock you in to using their products, the same way many components on ICE cars are coded to the vehicle.
True to an extent, but older Teslas were just banks of 18650 cells and newer ones are 21700, which are cells you can buy. People have been doing things like stripping older Prius to replace the NiCd cells when they wear out without too much trouble. Or even replaced them with Lithium batteries to extend their range on electricity alone.
The current hot topic of "right to repair" being put into legislation could force manufacturers to accept aftermarket or refurbished batteries.
The coded parts on ICE engines are more to do with tolerances, you can't just swap diesel injectors for example because one will be a slightly different size, so the ECU needs to know it's exact flow rate so it can compensate for it.
Just depends whether manufacturers go down a "we know best, thou shalt not hack" route like Apple, or "it's your car, go nuts" like android.
And it also ignores that, at least on larger cars the batteries seem to be lasting longer than most ICE engines anyway. Running a leaf from 100% down to zero every day might not be doing it any favors, but those with >300mile ranges (and mostly only using 15% of that on the daily commute rather than nearly 100%) seem to breeze past the point where diesel cars start to eat their injectors, turbos, DMF's, DPF's, fuel pumps and whatever else. And Tesla are still talking up their next generation of batteries doing 1,000,000 miles, which really would make the idea of aftermarket batteries redundant. Likely to do 1,000,000 miles in the real world, who cares, most cars barely make it into 6 figures.
46% of households in London don’t own a car.
Similar figures here, but for different reasons.
I think London is pretty atypical though. Public transport is a lot better there than most of the country and there are strong disincentives to using a car (parking, congestion charge, jams, stressful driving).
Anecdotally the ones I know just use the buses for 9/10 trips and just have an uber account for the rest.
So in those cases is it not possible that having a summonable self-driving vehicle would cause them to use the bus less and cars more?
FunkyDunc
Stopping to charge on route would have meant no decent bike ride on the Friday and a shorter weekend overall with time spent in some random service station, or off my required route to charge. Then that would be if I was lucky enough to find a charger that worked or, a space
I have to admit, this is the only (minor) negative that I can see for me personally with most of the current crop of affordable cars i.e. shorter range. Weekends away with mates where you don't want to be farting about. I've got a mate who is a vegan and when we all get together for a weekend walking/biking it all seems to revolve around him when it comes to food and restaurants. I don't want to be that person that everyone is rolling their eyes at, because we have to start a walk from X for the EV charger or we can't start a ride yet because B.A.Nana has gone into Windermere to charge his car, or " I'm not getting a lift home from him again (late on Sunday night), cos we had to stop at Booths to charge his car and I just wanted to get home".
Got the EDF smart EV tariff set up now.
8p per kWh - 21:00 - 07:00 Mon-Fri
And all weekend.
£2.30 for 100 miles approx
17p all other times.
All other leccy sits on there too.
Was a bit of a pain administrating it - they didn't pout me on the dual tariff to start with.
https://www.edfenergy.com/electric-cars/tariffs
So in those cases is it not possible that having a summonable self-driving vehicle would cause them to use the bus less and cars more?
No, because I'd assume uber without a driver would cost about the same as uber with a driver. It's just a tool they use for those trips that aren't particularly direct via public transport, or with more people on board.
I have to admit, this is the only (minor) negative that I can see for me personally with most of the current crop of affordable cars i.e. shorter range. Weekends away with mates where you don’t want to be farting about. I’ve got a mate who is a vegan and when we all get together for a weekend walking/biking it all seems to revolve around him when it comes to food and restaurants. I don’t want to be that person that everyone is rolling their eyes at, because we have to start a walk from X for the EV charger or we can’t start a ride yet because B.A.Nana has gone into Windermere to charge his car, or ” I’m not getting a lift home from him again (late on Sunday night), cos we had to stop at Booths to charge his car and I just wanted to get home”.
Yea, but it would only annoy those mates that otherwise conveniently forget to pay you the £40 back for petrol. And as demand grows charging stations will pop up in more places, even campsites etc. Just go on accommodation search engines and search by ones with charging stations, it's already an option, so once demand reaches a critical mass they'll all have to offer it.
folk (and common sense) tells me that these vehicles have less moving parts.
Time will tell, but in theory there should be less to go wrong.
How many mechanically servicable cars are already written off or passed down the chain because of electrical faults? The number of mechanical moving parts in an electric motor vs. an ICE is tip of the iceberg. IMHO electronics form the least reliable part of a car, as there is an incredible number of components and materials, of sizes ranging down to microscopic, almost all of which must be chemically and mechanically stable to continue working. Again IMHO, there is very little about the modern electronics design and supply chain that is sustainable.
I’m not getting a lift home from him again (late on Sunday night), cos we had to stop at Booths to charge his car and I just wanted to get home”.
Luckily he charged the car overnight so he doesn’t need to stop. Unlike Duncan and his 3lt V6 who had stop on the way home while simultaneously killing polar bears. Worse still Duncan is also a vegan.
Luckily he charged the car overnight so he doesn’t need to stop. Unlike Duncan and his 3lt V6 who had stop on the way home while simultaneously killing polar bears. Worse still Duncan is also a vegan.
Worse still you catch a glimpse of B.A.Nanna buying his passenger a gregs steak bake whilst their Tesla gets a quick 10 minute top-up. You suggest this to Duncan, but his hands smell of diesel and he considers the Gregs Vegan roll to be a symbol of capitalism trying to make a quick buck out of the thing that used to make him unique and interesting (along with his 3.0 V6).
Yea, but it would only annoy those mates that otherwise conveniently forget to pay you the £40 back for petrol.
🙂 Fortunately I don't have mates like that, but yes it has occurred to me what value would a mate, cadging a lift, put on money and time.
Greggs? We're charging at Booths, so it'll be a Keswick Beef & Garstang blue cheese Ciabatta, thank you.
so it’ll be a Keswick Beef & Garstang blue cheese Ciabatta, thank you.
Yeah **** you Duncan you’re having beef.
how small is Duncans petrol tank.
Now your just getting personal!!
Good video review for Duncan’s friends to know who to get a lift from.
how small is Duncans petrol tank.
17 gallons.
how small is Duncans petrol tank.
17 gallons.
so assuming an E class estate 3.5 V6 petrol.
510 miles minimum or 816 miles max
- yeah duncans still stopping less often for less time in todays market even with a 3.5 V6
And it’s not coping, it’s co-operation.
*sigh* energy security. Co-operation is great so long as we are co-operating or there are no technical failures. AFAIK Scotland is still looking at a week to get back up if we had a grid collapse, even with interconnects.
As for wind, fair point about that, I wasn't deliberately ignoring it. DOn't just look at headline figures though, you need to look at capacity figures which are often vastly different
so assuming an E class estate 3.5 V6 petrol.
I’ve no idea as Duncan doesn’t actually exists it’s all a joke. 🤦🏻♂️
Co-operation is great so long as we are co-operating or there are no technical failures.
So a bit like oil?
And bear in mind electric cars are as much a part of the solution as they are a problem.
They'll provide a sink for all the power generated overnight or as a weather front comes through, and could make you a few quid back when it's plugged in during the day putting some energy back into the grid.
It's genius in a way, there's been all sorts of falling out over green energy tariffs and levies added to consumers bills to pay for renewable generation. Which only really added upto a few hundred quid. Now we're convincing people to stump up tens of thousands! Still a good thing, just a bit ironic.
So a bit like oil?
How many oil fired power stations do we have?
How many electrical national reserves do we have?
To answer your question without a question, no, nothing like oil.
How many oil fired power stations do we have?
How many electrical national reserves do we have?
What are you talking about?
We rely heavily on all oil from other any disruption to that can cripple the country.
I'm talking about the national grid. We have strategic reserves (or can enact the creation of) for fuel. We have no way of storing electricity then pulling it out later.
*awaits smartarsed pumped storage comeback*
Why do you think self driving cars will result in fewer cars on the road?
My car currently goes from where I am to where I want to be. If I have to order a car to collect me it has to come from where it is, to where I am before it takes me to where I want to go. This is additional miles.
Also the comment above about most cars barely making it to 100,000 miles? Well in common with a lot of low earners, I buy cars at around that mileage and then run them for 8-10 years. I am very pro EV's but the age and range drop off does concern me. If I buy a Zoe for example at 10 years old, what sort of range will it realistically have, especially with the heater on to cope with a Scottish winter? And then am I looking at £6k to change the batteries? How does this work from an environmental point of view compared to my current car which is 19 years old, has nearly 200k miles on it and still does over 45MPG (measured average) on petrol?
What are you talking about?
Read what's written I think he's referring to you making another really poor analogy
Read what’s written I think he’s referring to you making another really poor analogy
You’re still upset about your friend Duncan not being real, aren’t you?
*sigh* energy security.
It's ok, I knew exactly what your angle was. I'd be interested to know more about Gov policy around national energy security
Something people aren't aware of is that millions of EV's plugged into the grid will serve the grid and become part of the infrastructure, engineers at the national grid have been planning for this outcome, for years. EVs will help with grid balancing, in theory we will need less power generation, not more. (until we start to phase out gas boilers, maybe)
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/media/batteries-wheels-and-smart-charging
Duncan Burt, Director of Operations National Grid (following end of fossil engine sales 2035 announcement the other day)
"I’m saying that the Transmission Grid and the power generation capacity can cope (smart charging means we can fit it in the overnight drop in demand). The DSOs have flagged risk of challenges for the local grid but they’re working on it..."
"happy to say again that we’re happy at @ng_eso that the additional electrical load can be met"
So fair enough, he's saying that there are challenges with infrastructure at a local level, but not national. Also worth pointing out that he won't be including the future contribution that EV's will make to the grid (V2G, V2H) in the future.
This might be worth looking at ofgems action plan for EV's and supporting offshore grid, published 3 Feb
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/rewiring-britain-net-zero-future-ofgem-publishes-decarbonisation-action-plan
Regarding the “trickle not a rush” point:
Source: https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/ via r/electricvehicles
Still small numbers in the overall market but 200% year-on-year growth seems promising.
All well and good saying cars can be used to store energy. Up until the first story of someone needing to get somewhere important quickly and their battery being dead*. Cue everyone unplugging as soon as they are charged.
Also relies on cars being plugged in for availability which, unless charging, is unlikely without incentives.
Please don't think I'm just gleefully pissing on your chips here, I want this to work but even with the best of intentions I don't believe it's you or I's responsibility to do the grids job for them. Fact is I don't believe we are close to having the grid resiliency required for renewables nor the capacity to deal with the sort of demands a modal shift to EVs would place on the system. Electric is not a silver bullet nor is it sustainable, for true sustainability you need diversity, both in supply and in demand.
*need not be true. Scooped by Heil or Express. Insert compo faced gammon holding plug here.
When I rent out my drive to Ubela .... for it to park and charge 4 of it's cars, 2mins away from a busy london commuter rail station .... will I get "free" use of them when I want ??
All well and good saying cars can be used to store energy. Up until the first story of someone needing to get somewhere important quickly and their battery being dead
I don't think they would just drain your car whenever they feel like it. That's clearly not a sustainable approach.
You'd have to opt-in, I'd imagine, for compensation, and you'd have to tell them a bit about your usage. So you'd say 'in the week I am only using this car to do 12 miles to work so you may take 20% of the energy if you need it and give me £5'
Teslas have now appeared on NHS Fleet leasing on a special deal. How much? Something up when Audi work out cheaper.
Something up when Audi work out cheaper.
why ?
tesla model 3 starts at 38k GBP audi A4 starts at 30k.
Id expect the model 3 to be more expensive to rent it costs more to buy.
I was going to do the Octopus vehicle to grid trial (just timing was bad in the end) - they're doing similar to most others where you set how much charge you need by a certain time then also have a baseline that it won't discharge past - so you can always have enough to head off if you need to unexpectedly. Incentivised by paying you I think £30 a month if you plug in evening to morning at least 12 times a month.
I’m talking about the national grid. We have strategic reserves (or can enact the creation of) for fuel. We have no way of storing electricity then pulling it out later.
*awaits smartarsed pumped storage comeback*
~20 million ~100kWh batteries distributed around the country should about cover it.
Also the comment above about most cars barely making it to 100,000 miles? Well in common with a lot of low earners, I buy cars at around that mileage and then run them for 8-10 years. I am very pro EV’s but the age and range drop off does concern me. If I buy a Zoe for example at 10 years old, what sort of range will it realistically have, especially with the heater on to cope with a Scottish winter? And then am I looking at £6k to change the batteries? How does this work from an environmental point of view compared to my current car which is 19 years old, has nearly 200k miles on it and still does over 45MPG (measured average) on petrol?
So do I (ish, I bought it quite a bit newer then put a lot of miles on it and have no intention of selling it any time soon).
Let's not get hung up on the ~100mile range hatchbacks like the Zoe and leaf. You wouldn't discredit ICE's based on the range of a BMW C1 would you?
Lets say you bought a Tesla fat 10 years old, and the battery was indeed knackered. Given there will be a lot of similar cars about generating demand for batteries either from Tesla or aftermarket refurbishment there'll be someone meeting that demand. Now if you want to keep the car for another 10 years, and lets say the battery replacement cost £10k, that's £1k a year (I'm sure someone will finance this, after all there's a tangible asset they can secure it against), assuming electricity stays at about the same cost as it does now then you would be in about the same position as before (spending about £1500/year on "fuel" assuming average use).
And as I keep pointing out, if your current situation is unsustainable (it is, just about everyone's in the UK is) and the "plan A" option of electric cars and maintaining our current lifestyle isn't suitable then we're heading towards a future where "plan B" which is not electric cars, but you will have to change your lifestyle because living a long way from work in a Scottish winter perhaps is the bit that's unsustainable.
why ?
tesla model 3 starts at 38k GBP audi A4 starts at 30k.
Id expect the model 3 to be more expensive to rent it costs more to buy.
Yeah! Wrong model. I think you need a better analogy.
Oooh! It’s now gone off the list it was a model 3 Vs E-Tron 50 by the way but no matter as the Tesla has gone
I've not read the whole 7 pages, so apologies if this has been covered, but the main concern I have with electric cars is the manufacture (and eventual disposal) of the batteries. See quote below from an article in the Newstatesman yesterday, the stats relate to just the UK's vehicles..... the amount of resources required if the whole planet goes electric for transport would be colossal. This would have it's own environmental impact (e.g. subsea mining).... and may not be economic as the price of these resources e.g. Cobalt rises with demand.
Hydrogen powered vehicles, with the hydrogen produced using renewable electricity generation seems more realistic to me. No range anxiety issue either, and the existing refuelling infrastructure could be reused.
A wider problem with the DoT’s strategy is that it is almost entirely based on switching to electric vehicles. In 2019 a letter written by Professor Richard Herrington of the Natural History Museum and signed by several of the UK’s leading geologists, raised concerns over the quantities of relatively rare resources that would be needed to replace every petrol and diesel car in the country with an electric vehicle. This would, Herrington wrote, require, “just under two times the total annual world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three quarters of the world’s lithium production and at least half of the world’s copper production during 2018”.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/environment/2020/02/how-get-net-zero
Hydrogen powered vehicles, with the hydrogen produced using renewable electricity generation seems more realistic to me.
The trouble with hydrogen is...
Specially designed fuel cells may well make that safe, but you have to still have to get past that image problem.
Paul0 they’re not the definitive answer, no. They do come with some of their own issues, the batteries can be reused recycled by the way, but for now they’re their the next stage. Hydrogen might be next but for now EV is proving easier to design and manufacturer, battery technology is also changing to use other materials.