The ROC was recognised by the US up til 1979, after that the PRC is the one that was recognized. It's entirely contentious and the root of the whole issue. They both claim sovereignty over the other.
They both claim sovereignty over the other.
Exactly. They are two independent governments. That's why China is so angry. If Taiwan wasn't run by an independent government, China wouldn't be angry.
This is a question of ideology v reality though. China actually have legal documents that state if the peaceful unification policy is unworkable it's under obligation to invade. So Taiwanese independence is a dangerous dangerous game.
It's not like I'm not sympathetic to Taiwanese independence. I'm an ardent supporter of Scottish independence. So I get it. But my independence quest does not come with an automatic invasion from England.
And don't bet on the US being willing to enter the fight, they are done with that. If they weren't we'd be fighting Russia right now.
The Anti-Secession Law (Chinese: 《反分裂国家法》) is a law of the People's Republic of China, passed by the 3rd Session of the 10th National People's Congress. It was ratified on March 14, 2005, and went into effect immediately. President Hu Jintao promulgated the law with Presidential Decree No. 34.[1] Although the law, at ten articles, is relatively short, Article 8 formalized the long-standing policy of the PRC to use military means against Taiwan independence in the event peaceful means become otherwise impossible. The law does not explicitly equate "China" with the People's Republic of China (referred to in the law as "the State").
FYi.
For me, Taiwan's best strategy would be to maintain the status quo indefinitely and hope that the Chinese demands wain over time.
US posturing isn't really conducive to that. Particularly if they take an approach of actively encouraging independence. That's a disaster waiting to happen for Taiwan.
China actually has legal documents that state if the one country 2 systems policy is unworkable it’s under obligation to invade.
I think you mean "legal" documents. If they had any legal standing, China would have applied to whatever court of international law they were lodged in for permission to invade. China can trot out whatever bogus documents it wants, it doesn't change the reality that they have been two countries for 70 years.
They have legal standing in China. International courts are irrelevant.
For me, Taiwan’s best strategy would be to maintain the status quo indefinitely and hope that the Chinese demands wain over time.
China has rejected that. The U.S. position is ambiguity over it all, in order to maintain the status quo. The country that's trying to change the status quo is China. That's why China's military has modernized with the specific mission of invading Taiwan. Right now, they are firing missiles into Taiwanese sea and airspace, as well as Japanese territory. Not the actions of a country with any interest in maintaining the status quo.
The Chinese military isn't getting specifically built up to invade Taiwan. It's getting specifically built up to dominate the US.
International courts are irrelevant.
Then there is no basis for accusing any country of committing a war crime. Any country can do anything it wants as long as it can get away with it.
Not the actions of a country with any interest in maintaining the status quo.
Yip, agreed they don't but they are patient and leaders change over time. It's a perilous position Taiwan is in.
thols2
Free Member
Then there is no basis for accusing any country of committing a war crime. Any country can do anything it wants as long as it can get away with it.
Can accuse people all you like, actually trying them is another issue. See Vlad Putin.
The Chinese military isn’t getting specifically built up to invade Taiwan. It’s getting specifically built up to dominate the US.
Nope. Their military buildup is specifically planned for an invasion of Taiwan. That's why the Chinese navy has ro-ro vessels. They can ship troops and vehicles to Taiwan. They don't have the range to ship them to California.
They aren't going to invade the US it's about domination of the Indo Pacific(and beyond no doubt) and protection of their interests. Taiwan is a side issue to that, not the reason for their military build up. Google belts and roads.
The U.S. isn't in Asia so dominating the Indo-Pacific isn't dominating America. It think what you mean is that China wants to dominate its neighbours and doesn't want America to help them defend themselves. What justification are you going to pull out next, that some Chinese court ruled that Japan is historically a part of China because Japan using Chinese pictographs to write?
The reality is that Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea are liberal democracies with close ties to the U.S. The status quo is stable, but China resents the status quo. The only country trying to destabilize the status quo is China.
i'm not justifying anything. just explaining the realities as I see them. You're the idealist here that thinks it's about democracy.
I just want peace. And Peace isn't going to come from challenging China.
If push came to shove do you think Biden would react?
During a press conference in Tokyo on May 23, a reporter asked President Joseph Biden, “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?” Biden responded: “Yes . . . that’s the commitment we made.”
i’m not justifying anything. just explaining the realities.
The reality is that Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea are close friends of the U.S. and other democracies. An attack by China on those countries will provoke a war. You can't claim to be a realist and then say "I just want peace" in denial of the reality of Asian politics. If you want peace, you need to do everything you can to deter China (and Russia) from attacking their neighbours.
You're in denial of the juggernaut that is China.
I just want peace. And Peace isn’t going to come from challenging China.
Peace does not come from looking the other way at the behaviour of an increasingly belligerent autocratic dictatorship.
Peace doesn't come from the 2 world powers going head to head either. Agree it's somewhat of a catch 22 situation.
So just give up then?
Give up what though? The move towards entrenched positions that will kick off something truly horrible?
We need to find a way through this current batch of belligerent and incompetent politicians with as little conflict as possible.
I doubt bringing the issue of Taiwan to a head as quick as possible is the wisest route through that.
You’re in denial of the juggernaut that is China.
China is a major power but it also has some huge weaknesses. It may overcome them and become a juggernaut, it may just remain a regional power, it's too early to know. One of the huge indicators of Chinese (and Russian) weakness is that their elites send their children overseas for education and hide their money overseas. American and European students don't flock to Chinese universities to study physics and engineering, they stay home, but Chinese families mortgage their futures on getting their kids into foreign universities. If you want to study at a world-class university, you look to the U.S., Europe, etc. It's the same with money. Nobody in the West sends their money to China for safekeeping but Chinese billionaires send their money to the U.S. and Europe. China won't be a juggernaut until Chinese people trust their universities and financial system enough to keep their children and money in China.
A rapidly changing situation, they'll overtake the US in about 10-15 years, potentially sooner, if not by then, they certainly will in 20-25 years, so well within our lifetimes(touch wood we live that long and beyond!).
Anyhow, we've had enough back on forth on this yin. I'll step back and let others comment. 😆 i think my thoughts are out there. Compromise would be my keyword.
The US Taiwan Relations Act 1978 "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States"
It doesn't specify war but we'll see you in the International Courts 🙂
Edit - too angry.
China is not ready yet until they have 70+ aircraft carriers. When they have more aircraft carriers that's the time we see war.
If China goes to war now their strengths will be put back 100 years and CCP will be in trouble. But if they continue to build up their strength without going to war, then in 50 years time there will be a major naval war in that region. No land war because that is logistically a headache.
Many people in the far east have been talking about Pelosi's visit but deep down they know that China is not ready yet. They are all watching very closely at the Ukraine/Russia war at the moment.
China is not ready yet until they have 70+ aircraft carriers.
That would be a rather overkill number, pardon the pun, and somewhat risky and unnecessary given their current apparent ambitions. The unsinkable carriers they are currently building on would be far superior in what they seem to want their area of operations is.
Carriers are only good if you want to project force somewhere you have no decent land bases.
China has a whole bunch of demographic timebombs waiting for it which are going to be problematic for the party to solve and potentially for everyone else as well so fifty years time is a tricky projection.
70+ aircraft carriers sounds like a good idea - they could link them nose to tail and they would probably be about halfway to Taiwan.
70 get's ye 22km, they'd 426 Type 3, @ 315m each 😆 Would need less type 4's I'd guess.
70+ aircraft carriers sounds like a good idea – they could link them nose to tail and they would probably be about halfway to Taiwan.
Lol, maybe they could put a conveyor belt on top of them all 😅
some of the 70+ aircraft carriers are to subdue SE Asia or Asia and to defend their territorial interests. Some SE Asian nations have already voiced neutrality but whether they can maintain it is difficult to say.
They have two problems though:
1. Population is aging.
2. They need other Asian/SE Asian countries to support them ... they need to buy them.
China is not ready yet until they have 70+ aircraft carriers.
Put the scrumpy down Chewk and go to bed.
Put the scrumpy down Chewk and go to bed.
That's the China's logic because it will be a naval warfare, hence the saber-rattling at the moment because they are not confident enough. Once they have the confident they are not going to pussy foot around Taiwan or the region. America might have many bases in South Pacific but it still requires naval capability to go anyway near China/Taiwan.
They are on their 3rd or 4th aircraft carriers now and will be building more in future. They know their arch enemies are focusing (or provoking) on them but they are not biting. You will know when they are ready.
You will know when they are ready.
It will be when they have at least 70 aircraft carriers apparently.
China will implement its own Monroe doctrine type thing at some point. To be honest I generally agree with Chewkw here.
It will be when they have at least 70 aircraft carriers apparently.
That's just an estimation people there are talking but I think it is more or less the equivalent of slightly more than the combined NATO fleet.
To be honest I generally agree with Chewkw here.
Insofar as to whether the PRC is ready to go to war in the Pacific over sleight from Pelosi then I agree that it isn't happening.
"Large scale military drills" on the part of China are likely to make key neighbours very nervous.
To be honest I generally agree with Chewkw here.
Its the 70 carriers which goes into fantasy land. Far more significant are the turning random reefs into unsinkable carriers (whether they are unsinkable beats hard to find is a subject which can only be proved the hard way).
The carriers dont really help much for Taiwan since it is close enough that modern jets with drop tanks would be able to establish air superiority over it (not like BoE where the Germans had very limited loiter time for its fighters and hence open season for the defenders).
The main problem isnt military but general infrastructure and economics. Hence why everyone outside Taiwan are trying to build resilience into their systems and the Taiwan companies are doing the minimal possible to support that whilst pretending to.
Currently a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will hurt everyone massively and so no one is overly keen on it.
However politics always plays a part. If China had ignored the visit then I think everyone else will have. However the delay due to covid pushed it late enough that it seems to have been a bit of a threat to Xi ahead of the party conference and hence he wanted a show of force.
70 is maybe fantasy land, but you could easily see the chinese with up to 30. NATO combined have 17 btw. Good point on the Spratly Islands.
That’s just an estimation people there are talking
You'll pee your pants when I break down the projected performance of the BAC TSR2 on the basis of what I've read on alt-news sites.
“Large scale military drills” on the part of China are likely to make key neighbours very nervous.
Only for Taiwan while other SE Asian countries don't really care much to be honest because China has never invaded them in hundred of years, but China has upper hand in influencing the politics and trade which also annoyed many of them.
However politics always plays a part. If China had ignored the visit then I think everyone else will have.
Yes, if they just let it be then there will be no news but CCP needs to save face hence all the big talk and hot air.
You’ll pee your pants when I break down the projected performance of the BAC TSR2 on the basis of what I’ve read on alt-news sites.
Don't hold back. There are many news sites all over with their views. For me it is simple, no enough carriers no fight. All hot air.
As for whatever NATO power there is when China is ready you will know.
At the moment we are forum "war experts" and we know it all. LOL!
p/s: The eyes in the sky (satellite, drone and etc) will get it first when the real war starts.
There are many news sites all over with their views. For me it is simple, no enough carriers no fight. All hot air.
As you succinctly put, we're all Friday night post-pub shut ins speculating upon the intricacies of US foreign policy. My point was that it would be good to see you cite some of your sources and discuss accordingly.
My point was that it would be good to see you cite some of your sources and discuss accordingly.
Chinese and Taiwanese weekly news. Can't type in Chinese so can't reference or search for them. Some if not all news clips or sites were sent to me without URL ...
Something like this ...
Sometimes they get good guest speakers but most of the time they get too excited ...
Some of the channels are dedicated to nothing but China's military power ...
