Sometimes they get good guest speakers but most of the time they get too excited …
Some of the channels are dedicated to nothing but China’s military power …
We've established that you and I broadly agree that the PRC isn't militarily nor politically ready to invade Taiwan.
Seeing you post citations from a range of sources is good. Please cite and discuss.
We’ve established that you and I broadly agree that the PRC isn’t militarily nor politically ready to invade Taiwan.
Yes, they are all hot air at the moment but not in another 50 years.
Seeing you post citations from a range of sources is good. Please cite and discuss.
Too many to cite and translation can be difficult to translate at times.
Its the 70 carriers which goes into fantasy land.
And so is 30. Aircraft carriers wouldn't play a role in invading Taiwan. China has no use for 30 aircraft carriers. A handful might be useful, a huge fleet would just be a waste of money.
Best defence against carriers no matter the number would be small low manned subs. Nothing big like a nuclear version. Small easy and quick to produce and in large numbers. Minimum number of torpedoes, fire and disappear.
no need for manned subs. just the underwater equivalent of aerial drones. maybe designed to look and sound like a large fish.
Yes, if they just let it be then there will be no news but CCP needs to save face hence all the big talk and hot air
Absolutely this. CCP has been threatening Taiwan since CCP won the civil war in 1949 and Chang Kai-shek sailed forth and set up the ROC on Taiwan
The US has stopped potential invasions by just being there, e.g. 7th Fleet during the Korean War (CCP supported N.Korea, US the south).
Diplomatic relations resumed in 1979 with the US switching diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, but with the US Taiwan Relations Act in place
Essentially, we'll refer to one-China and Taiwan being part of China, but don't invade and everyone's happy
The problem is that China sees the US as upping the ante with arms sales and now Pelosi's visit.
The other problem is that CCP is going to the "polls" soon and President Xi is going for an unheard of third term, what did they think he would do?
It might be a silly question but what has NATO got to do with anything going on in the south china sea?
With this escalation over Taiwan and our reliance of the chips they produce from a handful of factories I would like to think that sister plants are being set up in more suitable/stable parts of the world should, but are they?
NATO's doctrine and the USA's repeatedly stated commitment to militarily support Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion means NATO is involved, to what degree remains to be seen, but in any conflict between the USA and China its hard to see how we wouldn't end up being dragged in.
tagnut69
Free Member
It might be a silly question but what has NATO got to do with anything going on in the south china sea?
It's a very fair question, tbf, it's not really NATO, There a potential of an Asian NATO with the Quad. You'd imagine there'll be some kinda NATO/Quad+ alliance in the future though. Sure they invited Asian countries to the last NATO meeting. But the Asian specific stuff is defo US led.
https://mondediplo.com/2021/06/08bulard
It might be a silly question but what has NATO got to do with anything going on in the south china sea?
In short, nothing. US is a NATO member, but that shouldn't be conflated with NATO defending Taiwan if the US choose to.
It was reported in April that Liz Truss and Boris both want a "global NATO" and NATO discussed the region, CCP, etc at the Madrid summit in June, " The Indo-Pacific is important for NATO, given that developments in that region can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security. We will strengthen dialogue and cooperation with new and existing partners in the Indo-Pacific to tackle cross-regional challenges and shared security interests"
With this escalation over Taiwan and our reliance of the chips they produce from a handful of factories I would like to think that sister plants are being set up in more suitable/stable parts of the world should, but are they?
I'm skeptical that this will actually make any big difference, but the U.S. is working on it.
https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1552341491468697601
An interesting point made on Dateline in that the Chinese would have known well in advanced about Pelosi's visit giving them time to get their military prepared for its war games and bullying.
Which is presumably why China warned Pelosi not to go ahead with the visit long before it occurred.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/china/china-warns-pelosi-taiwan-visit-intl-hnk/index.html
Buy the time the 70th functional carrier launches.
Numbers 1to30 would be rusty out of date deathtraps.
Even using slave labour from Tebet and all the "eduction"facilitys for the Muslim community to build them it's a pipe dream.
It's kinda the wests fault for letting china produce our tech on such huge numbers especially chipsets.
Who brought ARM from the UK? Food security along with gas and oil? We turned a blind eye on who produced our stuff thinking they would become Western facing politically.
And then, there is this ongoing lethal squabble
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932022_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes
Im not realy sure what Indias view is on rising Chinese power. Time for a cup of tea and a biscuit to find out a bit more.
We've seen how China has treated Hong Kong, would any of us want that for the Taiwanese ?
Definitely not. We’ve basically abandoned Hong Kong and it’s awful. We in the west shouldn’t have enabled China to become the world’s manufacturing plant.
By the time the 70th functional carrier launches.
Numbers 1to30 would be rusty out of date deathtraps.
That won't matter because by then they will probably have built half a dozen death stars too.
They better sort the exhaust ports out then it's a well know weak spot.
you could easily see the chinese with up to 30.
Absolutely no chance and by the time even 10 have been built they will be out of date.
If you sign up for the PLA you're in for life. If you resign you see disgrace. The opposite of citizenship right advancement in Starship Troopers. You lose rights.
So, they stay in, and become corrupt as they blend into the vehicle ruts of the rhetoric.
The son of a poor divorced woman in my circles joined the army as an infantryman. A former student was going to become an army doctor (or, the only way to become a doctor was to be in the army).
I've met tens of thousands of citizens here and these are the only two I've known to signal any willingness to join the military. There's more in my family alone who were in the military, than I've met out here.
And combat experienced troops? None. They're watching the Ukraine carefully to see how this will go. To attack over the water will go horribly wrong for them. Mass casualties expected. The people back home won't have the will for that. There is a large growing dissatisfaction with their one party leadership as it is. If you educate the masses, so that they start to think, they'll not blindly be nationalists baying for western blood.
Who decided that the Chinese are going to build 70 carriers? If there's even 10 operational by 2050 I'd be impressed.
It was a number chewk plucked out of his imagination. No basis in any sort of reality.
chewkw
Free Member
China is not ready yet until they have 70+ aircraft carriers. When they have more aircraft carriers that’s the time we see war.
Chewkw. You heard it here first…
If there’s even 10 operational by 2050 I’d be impressed.
Given that how long it took them to create all this - vid, they could probably have all 70 churned out in 6 months.
It was a number chewk plucked out of his imagination. No basis in any sort of reality.
Yup. There's a reason why I ask Chewk to provide citations from his sources to support his statements.
The Chinese Navy has advanced anti-ship missiles designed to counter US aircraft carriers, perhaps their doctrine isn't about competing like-for-like with the US Navy.
Good call to the poster who reminded us that the US is looking to entice semiconductor manufacturers back to the US in the medium term.
Good call to the poster who reminded us that the US is looking to entice semiconductor manufacturers back to the US in the medium term.
The EU is doing the same.
EU also has the advantage of being the place where the kit to build the semiconductors is built (AMSL).
The Chinese Navy has advanced anti-ship missiles designed to counter US aircraft carriers, perhaps their doctrine isn’t about competing like-for-like with the US Navy
PLA/CCP will never have 70 aircraft carriers because you'd need some 400 other ships to make the strike groups up. Even if they have 35 in port and 35 at sea they have to rotate enough ships to make the groups up, maybe 250-300 others? The US has almost as many carriers as the rest of the world combined but only has 11 strike groups
There's a debate going on around the future of the aircraft carrier in "western" military circles; force projection, first response, etc v. vulnerable to both missile and submarine attack. The German U24 (they still call them that) "sank" USS Enterprise on exercise in 2001 and the Swedish navy's Gotland took pictures of Ronald Reagan's bottom in 2006
I don't see the PLA having the need for either force projection or first response, they tend to sit back and work behind the scenes
Holy thread resurrections! Apologies if anyone is getting fed up of me posting links to Peter Zeihan videos (mainly on the Ukraine thread), but I thought this one on China/Taiwan was interesting. Nothing earth shattering - the idea that Russia's debacle in Ukraine will make the Chinese completely rethink their approach to Taiwan. Though others have said similar and indeed it seems fairly obvious, Zeihan does a good job of articulating why in a bit more detail. It's a rare bit of optimism, the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any time soon has been severely reduced. Worth 5 minutes of your time IMO, if you're interested in that part of the world.
... the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any time soon has been severely reduced. ...
China won't invade because they are not ready. I doubt their real strategy is to send the troops in, better to just follow the American strategy on Cuba should do the job. Not even need to fire a single shot. To succeed China needs to have many aircraft carriers rather than the current few. China's knowledge of sea battles, with aircraft carriers, subs etc, is limited but they are learning fast but not fast enough.
On another note. China's influence is also gaining grounds in the Pacific Islands but their (China) inability to understand the pacific cultures will be their undoing. If China can only improve their understanding etc the Pacific Islands will be under Chinese influence. For years the USA, Aussie and NZ have not provided the necessary support needed for the Islanders (they have asked but not much been done). If China can only have an ounce of understanding the Islanders, they will be on board immediately. China Must understand the environment concerns/impacts of the Islanders especially when it comes to fish, but this is wishful thinking because there are too much greed in China. Basically, they lacks basic understand of the Islanders need. The Islanders do not need high rise buildings or stadium but they need the basic infrastructures such as health care and roads. If the West want to win the heart of the Islanders then go do more rather than treating them as non-entity.
Personally I want all large fishing trawlers ban in the world because they are practically destroying the fish stock all over. (was watching one trawler catching red snappers, I mean they practically scooped/netted all of them in one large scoop/net. I mean how on earth are red snappers going to reproduce if all the adults fish are gone? This is just one trawlers but if all the trawlers with their radar detected the school of fish, how long before we see fish extinction? Fish in the ocean is free but mankind does not deserve the free fish if they overstep their boundary)
This is a major change in Japan's defense posture. Japan has a well-equipped military, but it's officially a "defense force" and they have been careful to only buy weapons that give them plausible deniability that they are defensive weapons. Buying land attack Tomahawks that can hit targets in China (or North Korea) is a major shift in policy, clearly in response to China's constant provocations.
https://twitter.com/myhlee/status/1602283284423004160
Taiwan - part of China but they want freedom to decide their own destiny.
The world backs them, the US might even supply Taiwan with military aid.
.
Scotland- part of the UK, but they want freedom to decide its own destiny.
Taiwan – part of China but they want freedom to decide their own destiny.
The world backs them, the US might even supply Taiwan with military aid.
Scotland- part of the UK, but they want freedom to decide its own destiny.
Taiwan is a lot further along that road than Scotland.
Taiwan is a member of the WTO (and other Asian economic organisations) and it was a member of the UN (as the ROC) until the UN voted to recognise statehood of the PRC in 1971.
It has a different currency to PRC and by GDP is 21 in the world and has its own military, etc.
