I was watching an interview with the acting captain of HMS Endurance. It suffered a chain of events that led to a valve letting the sea into the engine room, flooding it in 30 minutes. It got very close to capsizing or running aground.
I'm not doubting squirrelking's opinion, the 2 incidents were very different, I'm just noting that strange things sometimes happen (like someone deciding to work on a valve connected under pressure to the sea without telling the engineering officer or captain).
I’ve worked as an engineer on ships, there is nothing that would sink a ship in an engine room.
Glands and intakes. Things fail, and especially large ships need to take in a tremendous amount of water for cooling, air conditioning, even freshwater purification for crew etc.
Bilge pumps can only handle so much/per hour, and if the water coming in is at a faster rate than the pumps can get it out the ship goes down and that is that. After so much water theres electrical problems, which would affect the pumps operation.
...I was a sea going engineer for 42 yrs with a Class one FG CoC . All you need is a sticky air start valve and a poor maintenance schedule for your air bottle to go bang. As I said you'd need to be awfully unlucky for it to happen but it has happened before.
Glands and intakes.
Glands where? The prop shaft? Thats an oil filled labyrinth seal.
Things fail, and especially large ships need to take in a tremendous amount of water for cooling
Via the sea chests which, even if the seal failed the pumps can handle. The way the anti-flood works is the suction is connected to the common manifold and the various pumps (multiple bilge, cooler water, ballast and fire) can all dump the water. Even if the sea chest had an implausible total failure the pumps would just draw from the breach.
, air conditioning,
Air handling is done above decks for what I thought would be very obvious reasons. The cooling is done using closed circuit regrigerators like any other AC unit.
even freshwater purification for crew etc.
Which is, again, drawn from the sea chest.
Again, none of this should sink the ship because of compartmentalisation. A properly designed and maintained ship should withstand multiple compartment failures never mind just one. And it was in the med so even if it sank to its freeboard it should still be fine.
This thread is starting to look like the comment section of a Facebook welding video…
This is a Russian ship we’re talking about, not a well crewed and put together western ship! The for all we know, the engine room has the captains personal stash of weapons he plans to sell on the black market 😉
Some on here are probably actual professionals. We all have lives off the bike
A properly designed and maintained ship should withstand multiple compartment failures never mind just one
I think that this is key, as suggested^^
Oboronlogistika OOO and several of its ships, including the Sparta, S2, S3/Ursa Major (UM) and S4 have been sanctioned since 2022 https://www.state.gov/state-department-actions-to-promote-accountability-and-impose-costs-on-the-russian-government-for-putins-aggression-against-ukraine/
They only dock in "friendly" ports where they aren't subject to Port Inspections. UM last had an inspection recorded in Germany in 2022 where several issues were identified. War tends to make maintenance slip, Sparta broke down off Brittany only the week before
They don't seem to communicate unless pressed, e.g. Sparta was spotted by French authorities as having problems off Brittany but didn't immediately respond to radio contact https://www.rfi.fr/fr/europe/20241220-la-m%C3%A9saventure-du-cargo-russe-sparta-au-large-de-la-bretagne-france
It's clear that UM had been having problems for a while and was maintaining a course at 1kt before eventually drifting. I'm not an expert, but if someone had blown three holes in my hull then I'd be sparking the radio up hours before they did.
She was also passed by other shipping while having technical difficulty, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that emergency signals could have been sent in the event of a radio failure.
See the Sal Mercogliano youtube video ^^ for more detail
Weekend update from Phillips P O'Brien https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/i/153747943/syria-and-the-russian-ukrainian-conflict
Ukraine is supplying grain to Syria so that they are less dependent on Russia and more likely to have freedom of choice on who to do business with
New Syrian government's school curriculum changes spark concern
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ln12056ppo
Other proposed changes include Evolution and the Big Bang theory being dropped from science teaching.
Well science teaching won't be involved in teaching science then.
Well science teaching won’t be involved in teaching science then.
It’s beginning to look a lot like Texas.
New Syrian government’s school curriculum changes spark concern
I think that it's important to note that they are mostly proposals,
In a statement, al-Qadri said the only instructions he had issued were related to the removal of content that he described as glorifying the "defunct Assad regime" and the instatement of the Syrian revolutionary flag in all textbooks.
The minister also said that "inaccuracies" in the Islamic education curriculum had been corrected.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ln12056ppo
/blockquote>
Changes made in the Islamic education curriculum:The changes, published in a list of amendments on the education ministry’s official Facebook page, include changing the phrases “path of goodness” to “Islamic path,” and “those who have are damned and have gone astray” to “Jews and Christians” – which pertains to an ultra-conservative interpretation of a verse in Islam’s holy book, the Quran.
The modifications also redefine the word “martyr,” from someone who died for the homeland to someone who sacrificed themselves “for the sake of God.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/02/middleeast/changes-to-syrias-school-curriculum-spark-online-outrage/index.htmlLet's see
A Russian Telegram channel has claimed that Bashar al Assad may have been poisoned, sparking online speculation about the fate of the Syrian dictator after he fled to Moscow following his downfall.
The claim was made by General SVR, which says it is run by former and current members of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, although it does not offer any evidence of these ties.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-syria-assad-poisoned-assassination-2008576
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot to meet Syria's de facto new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Damascus today https://www.reuters.com/world/germanys-foreign-minister-heads-damascus-one-day-trip-2025-01-03/
There's going to be a lot of competition for influence in Syria amongst world leaders
Some stuff happening in Syria:
The Russian cargo ship Sparta has been sitting off Tartus for several days now and doesn't appear to have permission to dock from Syrian authorities. There is materiel waiting on the dock for loading and this is an interesting indicator that all is not going well diplomatically.
The last Russian submarine, the Kilo-class Novorossiysk, left Tartus on 2nd Jan and was monitored off Portugal on the 4th, presumably heading home https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/after-loss-of-tartus-russia-now-has-no-submarines-in-the-mediterranean/
NATO will be happy that there aren't any Russian subs in the Med.
Evacuation operations, however, are continuing just along the coast at the Hmeimim airbase, which will be lighter kit and personnel.
The US and France are working with Turkey to avoid a potentially devastating blow to stability should Turkey take the opportunity to assault western-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) also guard IS prisoners in Syria.
Syria doesn't need an externally-manufactured split in the various factions before they can be brought together as a democratic nation https://www.reuters.com/world/us-french-troops-could-secure-syrias-northern-border-syrian-kurdish-official-2025-01-08/
President-Elect Trump sanctioned Turkey over incursions into Syria during his last term and would probably do so again
A follow up to the status of Tartus...
Russia's 49 year lease has been ended by the new authorities in Syria
On Tuesday, after news broke of the cancelation of Russia's long-term port lease, Sparta II entered the inner harbor and berthed next to the equipment stockpile. Satellite imaging will soon confirm whether the vessel begins loading out the staged vehicles for shipment. The next destination, whether in Russia or in another part of the Mediterranean, remains to be seen. https://maritime-executive.com/article/syria-s-new-government-cancels-russian-port-lease-at-tartus
Syrian authorities are also dismantling the amphet drug manufacturing and distribution network
...Russia's only substantial naval base in the Med and an export route for Syria's drug trade is closed for that sort of business. Hopefully other business will flourish there to the benefit of all Syrians
The EU has been making overtures to the Syrian leadership and has agreed in principle to lift sanctions, although problems with maritime boundaries need to be hammered out involving Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and Syria
20 countries have also agreed to ensure post Al-Assad success
In a statement agreed by 20 countries, including Syria, most Arab and Western states, but excluding the United States as diplomats said the administration was still defining policy, the participants said they would work to "ensure the success of the post-Assad transition in the framework of a process that is Syrian-led and Syria-owned in the spirit of the fundamental principles of U.N. Security Council resolution 2254."
They would also "provide the support it requires to ensure terrorist groups cannot re-establish a safe haven in Syrian territory."https://www.reuters.com/world/syrian-minister-makes-first-trip-eu-powers-look-aid-transition-2025-02-13/
In the same week AP reports that, "Putin has a ‘constructive’ conversation in first call with Syria’s new leader, Kremlin says"
Interesting interview with the new Syrian leader on the rest of politics - leading, with Campbell and Stewart.
Turkiye and the Kurdish PKK announced a ceasefire in SE Turkiye last week after 40 years of terrorism.
Turkiye's attacks in the Kurdish NE of Syria shouldn't be necessary and it probably suits them to avoid sanctions imposed by President Trump who acted during his first presidency. Having said that, sporadic outbursts between the Kurdish US-backed SDF and Turkish forces have been happening as recently as yesterday
This follows efforts by the US and France to stabilise the factions and talks between Syria and Turkey to develop a defence pact with Turkish bases established in Syria
If that peace holds then Syria will be more stable, but there are diehards of course
There's also been a pro-Assad insurgency in the Latakia region in the last couple of days. This will make things less stable and slow down the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Around 200 people have now been killed and curfews have been imposed in Homs, Latakia and Tartous. Russia's Khmeimim Air Base is at Latakia and their naval base is at Tartous. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reports that the insurgency started when Government security forces carrying out a trawl for weapons were attacked
Mass demonstrations were staged in different Syrian cities, where demonstrators expressed their support of the security operation by security forces and members of the Syrian Ministry of Defence in the Syrian coastline.
AND
Separately, gunmen attacked members of the criminal security branch in Latakia, where SOHR activists have reported hearing explosions, which were caused by attacks with RPGs and grenades. However, no casualties have been reported.
AND
Furthermore, a group of tens of security members surrendered to Russian forces stationed in Hmeimim base, after having been besieged near Hmeimim bridge for hours. (Source:) https://www.syriahr.com/en/357342/
Things have moved on in Syria.
HTS doesn't have the strength alone to deal with the pro-Assad groups and so the coalition of militias has stepped up. Unfortunately that's led to revenge killing, which is to be expected from groups that have been subject to years of chemical and other attacks and that don't have a full spectrum of military training.
President Sharaa has promised to deal with those responsible, but that's a long tightrope while holding a coalition of those same militias together, which suits the purposes of other states that have lost influence in Syria.
Syria's interim President Ahmed Sharaa said mass killings of members of ousted President Bashar al-Assad's minority sect were a threat to his mission to unite the country, and promised to punish those responsible, including his own allies if necessary.
AND
He did not identify the foreign power, but pointed to "parties that had lost out from the new reality in Syria", an apparent reference to long-time Assad ally Iran, whose embassy in Damascus is still closed. Tehran has rejected any suggestion it was involved in the violence.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-syrian-leader-sharaa-says-killings-alawites-threaten-unity-vows-justice-2025-03-10/
This week has also seen a deal struck with the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This fits with the Turkiye/PKK ceasefire ^^ and gives a degree of stability should President Trump decide to withdraw US troops again, which he is planning to do https://theconversation.com/syria-integration-deal-with-kurds-brings-relief-after-days-of-bitter-violence-wracks-war-torn-country-251855
Trump's first decision was made in 2018 and wasn't a great success. IS fighters escaped from SDF custody and he ended up putting more US troops in to restore order after SDF forces came under attack as others sought to fill the US vacuum.
This time is a wholly different background and will give the Syrian economy access to the oil-rich NE. Turkiye has a large part to play and has set ground conditions for a greater chance of success. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-age-turkish-relations-syria
Iran is more isolated from its proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah to the west, so the middle-east has an opportunity for more peace with fewer refugee crises
Israel has doubled down on its invasion of Syrian territory by bombing Syrian air force bases that were being surveyed by Turkiye as advanced bases for their own forces.
Israel has used Syrian air space for access to bomb other middle-eastern countries with tacit access agreement from Russia. The thought of that access being denied by Turkiye's defences is causing a problem for Israel
President Erdogan has a history of comments that don't amount to invasion but of support for Palestine, which won't endear him to Israel, e.g. this from July 2024,
Turkey must be “very strong so that Israel can’t do these things to the Palestinians,” the Turkish leader said of the war. “Just as we entered [Nagorno-]Karabakh, just as we entered Libya, we might do the same to them. There is nothing we can’t do. We must only be strong.” https://www.timesofisrael.com/turkeys-erdogan-appears-to-issue-open-threat-to-invade-israel-over-war-in-gaza/
Middle-eastern nations are stepping up support for Syria after a luke-warm response from the west.
Qatar was going to fund a public sector salary increase in Syria, but needed US sanctions to be loosened. The change in US administration effectively stopped that making Syria reliant on aid, rather than self-governance
Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's debts to the World Bank, three people familiar with the matter said, paving the way for the approval of millions of dollars in grants for reconstruction and to support the country's paralysed public sector.
Last month, Qatar announced a plan to provide Syria with gas via Jordan to improve the nation's meagre electricity supply, a move that sources told Reuters had Washington's nod of approval. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-plans-pay-off-syrias-world-bank-debts-sources-say-2025-04-14/
I posted this on the Gaza thread because it is relevant to Gaza but it is also at least as relevant to Syria.
Operation Timber Sycamore
Unfortunately, Professor Sachs is known for as many errors of judgement as good calls and he has an unshakeable belief in his own credibility. He's primarily an economist
His theme of several years is that US foreign policy caused Russia to invade Ukraine. He's suggested that the US was responsible for breaching the Nord Stream pipelines and that Covid-19 originated in US labs and he's been a guest on a RFKjr podcast
Oh good, another conspiracy theorist crank. Tankie to boot.
Oh good, another conspiracy theorist crank. Tankie to boot.
You think that Operation Timber Sycamore is a "conspiracy theory" which is not real?
Well let's dismiss facts if they don't fit into our preferred narrative, eh?
Is that what I said?
Syria is looking increasingly unstable thanks to actions both within and without the country
Assadists continue to be hunted, leading to attacks on the Druze community who protected their own community during Al Assad's regime rather than outright supporting Assad (unlike the Alawite community ^^). There are also religious differences of opinion between the majority Sunni and other communities that complicate matters
Israel has stepped in to protect the Druze by arming them and attacking Syria by air, but the reality here seems to be that Israel benefits from an unstable Syria as does Russia. It would be interesting to hear if the Druze community welcomes Israel's assistance, especially as there are Druze members of the current Syrian Government, military and police
Sweida* borders Jordan but not Israel. Many of its residents who protested against the Assad regime in recent years have also protested against Israel’s airstrikes and military push into the country since the fall of the government to Sharaa’s rebel forces. https://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-government-said-to-reach-deal-to-fully-integrate-southern-druze-province/
*A Druze-majority province
In February the US began planning its withdrawal from Syria. ISIS has already shown a willingness to fill the vacuum exactly as happened under Trump v1.0 in 2019 when c800 ISIS fighters escaped from custody.
Around 9,000 ISIS prisoners and 40,000 refugees are in the US-backed area. Israel would prefer the US to stay https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/dod-drafting-plans-withdraw-us-troops-syria-recent-trump-comments-rcna190726
Good developments:
French container shipping company CMA-CGM has signed an agreement to develop the Latakia docks, including the Tartus port area which is minority-occupied by Russian forces https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/05/01/syria-signs-30-year-port-deal-with-shipping-giant_6740807_19.html
CMA-CGM is quarter-owned by Turkish company Yildrim. Turkiye is planning an oil pipeline to tap into enormous potential in Syria, whose oil production has dropped to around 5% of turn-of-the-century production.
President Erdogan publicly supports the plight within Gaza, but Turkiye also trades with Israel. Israel doesn't want a stable, openly-critical Syria on its borders
The US has a policy on Syria at long last become clear with President Trump announcing that he'll lift all sanctions, which should be a good thing
The problem is that it doesn't appear that anyone outside the White House got a look at the memo and don't know what to remove; it's massively complicated with some sanctions in place for decades, some imposed via Congress and some on other governments and companies in those countries https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-big-syria-announcement-surprised-his-own-sanctions-officials-2025-05-14/
Israel has been sidelined "as Trump declared an end to sanctions on Syria and called for a normalization of relations with the new government in Damascus, which Israel regards as a barely disguised jihadist regime." That will cause Israel problems in their occupation of part of Syria and attacks on Syrian military bases and materiel. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/bypassed-by-trump-israel-dismayed-silent-2025-05-14/
It'll be a while before anyone understands the ins and outs, although Turkiye and others are beginning to chart "roadmaps"
Potential investors https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/too-good-be-true-investors-eye-syria-after-trump-sanctions-move-2025-05-14/
Some more Syria news coming out of the US:
Former jihadist fighters are being allowed into the Syrian army on the basis that they're better there than free to be absorbed into IS and other organisations. China is concerned, which probably helped with the US decision,
Three Syrian defence officials said that under the plan, some 3,500 foreign fighters, mainly Uyghurs from China and neighbouring countries, would join a newly-formed unit, the 84th Syrian army division, which would also include Syrians. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-gives-nod-syria-bring-foreign-jihadist-ex-rebels-into-army-2025-06-02/
US forces will be reduced from eight military bases to one, in line with US inward-looking policies. This seems to be a missed opportunity given that Syria has tremendous business possibilities in rebuilding infrastructure and society, which would in turn reduce the refugee crisis and make Syria more self-sufficient.
The US only has about 2000 troops in Syria now, so it'll be interesting see how many stay. Some materiel has already been moved back to the US https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-scale-down-its-military-bases-syria-envoy-says-2025-06-03/
One infrastructure project that is struggling is the Syrian power grid. It's been systematically stripped over the years of war, even pylons have been felled and sold for scrap by gangs who are often armed. A Qatar-led consortium (President Trump's aircraft donor of choice) is running the project but is replacing stuff only for it to be looted. Troops, business opportunities, blah, blah https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/syria-qatars-7-billion-power-plan-hinges-fixing-its-grid-2025-06-02/
Israel continues to attack Syria based on flimsy evidence. A stable Syria isn't what they want next door https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-says-two-projectiles-crossed-syria-towards-israel-2025-06-03/
Wasim al-Assad, cousin of former-President Bashar al-Assad and sanctioned in both the US and EU, has been arrested in Syria
He's been recognised as a major drug dealer in the former regime's Amphet/Captagon international trade for a few years
In March, Israel bombed Syrian airbases before Turkiye could consider moving forces there and a hotline between the two was established in April to avoid misunderstandings over Syria
Talk to resolve possible flashpoints have been happening for some time with another round of talks scheduled a few weeks ago
Turkiye stopped deployment of materiel that could have included radar and AD systems until the diplomacy was concluded, which may have been part of Israel's plan to keep the timing of its initial raid on Iran quiet for as long as possible.
Turkiye was apparently notified in advance of Israel's action by the US according to "sources" to keep the peace (reported in some media)
PS too late now, but the previous post is TWO links, not one as it appears in STW's wayward editing format
There are ongoing peace discussions between Syria and Israel that could form part of the Abraham Accords (the normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab states). The Accords have spluttered because of the current conflict in Gaza, but this is a positive move for the region.
Syria is conflicted internally because a full peace agreement might limit Turkiye's influence in favour of the US and Israel, which doesn't sit well with pro-Turkiye factions and there are Syrian Druze factions too (an Israel ally), but definite moves towards peace in some form are happening.
One of Israel's red-lines is that the occupied Golan Heights, captured from Syria in 1967, remain under Israel's control. There is a UN "buffer zone" there as well that Israel occupied more recently. That should be fairly easy to re-establish which would be a step toward greater understanding
Reported in various middle-east media
Wild fires have been raging in the Latakia region for several days.
Turkiye and Jordan have been assisting with fire fighters and air support because the area is mined, littered with ordnance and is hazardous for fire fighting on the ground
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250707-syria-wildfires
There is a UN "buffer zone" there as well that Israel occupied more recently.
I think I read in a Jeremy Bowen book that this is a frequent and long-standing Israeli tactic, that if there's any neutral zone they'll occupy it, or if certain activities are banned in a border zone they'll do those activities, in order to establish that the neutral zone is theirs or to provoke a response they can then escalate. 🙁
There are ongoing peace discussions between Syria and Israel that could form part of the Abraham Accords (the normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab states). The Accords have spluttered because of the current conflict in Gaza, but this is a positive move for the region.
Stated without irony, apparently.
The Sweida region of Syria continues to be a conflict zone (see previous https://singletrackworld.com/forum/off-topic/syria-4/paged/5/#post-13569937 ) but this time inside the city of Sweida and between Bedouin and Druze peoples in the mainly Bedouin east.
Syrian army units moved in to the city to deal with the violence but came under attack both from local and Israeli forces. Israel is maintaining its policy of protecting Druze people, which is a moot point with the Druze population, while not preventing sectarian violence between local groups.
Israel doesn't want an organised army on its border, especially one that has been linked to AQ and IS in the past and that is governed by what Israel regards as "jihadists".
The problem with Israel continuously fostering chaos is that if the fragile peace fails more widely between different groups it could lead either to the downfall of the Syrian government and a power vacuum, or a neighbouring country stepping in with support. Neither of these are necessarily better options for Israel; a stable Syria buffering against Iran and bordering a UN DMZ with Israel has to be better, doesn't it?
Following on from the violence in Sweida city ^^
Israel, which has struck Syria several times in the name of protecting the Druze, carried out its latest strikes after influential Druze Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri issued a statement accusing government troops of breaching a ceasefire and urging fighters to confront what he described as a barbaric attack.
According to wikipedia Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri holds an hereditary position and a split has occurred within the Druze religious leadership during his tenure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikmat_al-Hijri
Not only did he split the Druze religious leadership, but it's convenient to regard him as more legitimate than other leaders. It's never been official, but polling suggests that Syrian Druze people would prefer if Israel kept out of Syria
The Druze spiritual leadership said in a written statement on Tuesday morning that it would allow Syrian forces to enter Sweida city to stop the bloodshed, calling on armed groups to surrender their weapons and cooperate with incoming troops.
But hours later, al-Hajri, a vocal opponent of the new Syrian leadership, said the statement had been "imposed" on them by Damascus and that Syrian troops had breached the arrangement by continuing to fire on residents.
"We are being subject to a total war of extermination," he said, calling on all Druze "to confront this barbaric campaign with all means available".
And just to underline one of the problems facing the newly-formed Syrian government; restricted air traffic movement and its effect
DAMASCUS, July 16 (Reuters) - Poor infrastructure, regional conflict and sporadic Israeli airstrikes are holding back more airlines from returning to Syria, industry officials told Reuters, hampering efforts to rebuild a shattered economy after 14 years of civil war.
11 foreign airlines to fly into Syria this month vs 3 a year ago
But scheduled flights seen at 58% of July 2010 levels
Regional conflict and infrastructure problems pose challenges
Israel doing Israel stuff right now
https://bsky.app/profile/youranoncentral.bsky.social/post/3lu3kskpaoc2b
Yep, more Israeli warmongering bullshit, trying to destabilise and create war in the whole region while claiming to be the victims.
Israel doing Israel stuff right now
https://bsky.app/profile/youranoncentral.bsky.social/post/3lu3kskpaoc2b
Of course it is, there’s nothing left to bomb in Gaza so it has to look for a fight elsewhere, it reminds me of my time working in the pub as there was always one drunk at the end of the night spoiling for a fight with anyone, till he got sparked out
Turkiye has condemned Israel's actions in Syria, where they have a number of interests ^^ in the developing state https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-has-conveyed-its-views-syria-strikes-israel-via-intelligence-agency-2025-07-16/
I doubt that Turkiye sees the need for war, but it will cause Syria's Kurdish population to retain arms for the defence of their community, rather than integrating into a Syrian state. This is an issue for Turkiye which has clashed with PKK terrorists internally and has seen a steady influx of refugees that they'd hoped to reverse as Syria develops.
Turkiye's military is quite sophisticated with US fighter aircraft and was one of the forerunners of drone warfare before Ukraine. They also have a weapons industry, so Israel will do well to steer clear (you may recall Ukraine being supplied with weapons including Bayraktar drones and Roketsan laser-guided missiles).
The US, UN and international community needs to pull Israel back, but their track record on this in Gaza and elsewhere hasn't been great. An article for interest https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria-israelpalestine/how-israels-overreach-syria-may-backfire
Turkiye is a NATO member, but in the unlikely event of offensive actions by Turkiye it won't trigger a NATO response
DAMASCUS/BEIRUT, July 19 (Reuters) - Syria's government misread how Israel would respond to its troops deploying to the country's south this week, encouraged by U.S. messaging that Syria should be governed as a centralized state, eight sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
AND
U.S. special envoy for Syria Thomas "Barrack has called for Syria to be centrally administered as "one country" without autonomous zones. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-believed-it-had-green-light-us-israel-deploy-troops-sweida-2025-07-19/
Israel, however, wants a Federal government in Syria administering autonomous communities and it wants to retain the Russian influence at military bases to counter Turkiye's increasing authority in the country.
BEIRUT/WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Israel is lobbying the United States to keep Syria weak and decentralised, including by letting Russia keep its military bases there to counter Turkey's growing influence in the country, four sources familiar with the efforts said. https://www.reuters.com/world/israel-lobbies-us-keep-russian-bases-weak-syria-sources-say-2025-02-28/
This maintains an inherent instability that suits Israel, but the US has made a public statement opposing autonomous communities ^^
One problem with Israel's approach is that Syria's army remains to an extent decentralised and consequently less well-trained leading to old scores being settled on the ground,
A regional intelligence source said Sharaa had not been in control of events on the ground because of the lack of a disciplined military and his reliance instead on a patchwork of militia groups, often with a background in Islamic militancy.
This gives Israel all the reason it needs to intervene, despite this being a moot point within Syrian Druze communities.
Another problem is that Israel's approach causes problems for Europe and NATO in that Syria was used as a base for Russian forces to threaten the NATO south and to influence the Mediterranean area, which it only re-established in 2013.
Russia still maintains a presence at the (K)Hmeimim air base, the Tartus naval base and at Qamishli air base, a Syrian base already bombed by Israel in the northeast.
Russia is negotiating hard to maintain its presence and can provide the grain and oil-products that Syria needs and doesn't have the infrastructure to produce. Development of that infrastructure is slow because of instability caused by continued conflict.
The Syrian government is well-aware that until a few months ago Russian forces were bombing their communities and might aid destabilisation if allowed to stay.
President Trump has lifted all US sanctions on Syria and on the day that Israel bombed Damascus a US contingent was pitching redevelopment projects to the Syrian government there https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/us-firms-develop-syria-energy-masterplan-after-trump-lifts-sanctions-2025-07-18/ (see also embedded links in the article on electicity and port regeneration)
Israel is on the wrong side of US, European and NATO interests while Syria is in the middle of interesting times.
Novel negotiation could produce some good results for the country and the middle-east
