This is an open act of expansionism aimed at stealing Syria’s southern lands and natural resources.
Perhaps we should use the term 'Lebensraum' to describe what they are doing. Seems very appropriate 🤔
In fact the more parallels should be drawn and used in online media.
Seems to me that Israel only bombed Syria because they requested that they protect the Druze but any forces that went there basically joined in against the Druze, which is why Israel have issued a 'warning'.
There's footage of the Islamists, shaving the moustaches from Druze elders and celebrating that they are humiliating them by removing their moustaches, before murdering them. This is in spite of there being messaging telling them to avoid videoing anything on their phones.
Also video of the Druze in Israel trying to get across the border to Syria to go and help the Druze in Syria, but Israel trying to stop them and asking them to let the IDF do the work. Apparently Druze are also attempting to come from Lebanon.
Fatwahs have been issued to allow to be committed, like they were before October 7th:
https://www.youtube.com/live/HUfPylNxrJY?si=lh4pby_cBLQk-qwO
Interesting discussion unless you are a pathological Jew hater :
Also an interesting discussion, has a slightly more moderate view of al-Jolani which I thought might be the case but recent events challange that a bit :
Seems to me that Israel only bombed Syria because they requested that they protect the Druze but any forces that went there basically joined in against the Druze, which is why Israel have issued a 'warning'.
It seems to me that Israel has been attacking Syria using any excuse to keep Syria fragmented. The exception for me was the bombing of Syrian chemical weapons stocks on the 8th Dec, which was a public service destruction IMHO and before the establishment of the caretaker Syrian government established under Mohammed al-Bashir on the 10th.
From 10th Dec, Israel's attacks have been against a sovreign government with the apparent goal to increase Israel's land, which PM Netanyahu made clear in February when he said that Israel would "indefinitely" occupy Syrian land seized since December, e.g. the UN buffer zone on the Golan Heights.
The claim by Israel to be protecting the Druze people by attacking Syrian government forces is a nonsense; Druze fighters were in conflict with Bedouin fighters and Bedouin civilians have been evacuated from the majority Druze city of Suweida https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/bedouin-civilians-leave-syrias-sweida-tense-truce-holds-2025-07-21/
It would also be interesting to understand why Israel didn't feel it necessary to intervene in one of the single-biggest massacres of Druze people by IS fighters during the Syrian civil war in 2018,
I'm not naive enough to believe that any side in this is truly "right" and Syrian forces were also drawn in to the conflict, but it's plain that Israel is more wrong. President Trump, who is accommodating toward Israel, has said as much by telling the world that the US doesn't approve of Israel's strikes and doesn't share Israel's vision of a federalised Syria.
President Trump has started the process of the removal of US sanctions from Syria, no doubt guaranteed by other middle-eastern states during his recent tour (the announcement on May 13th was day two of the tour), again against Israel's suggested phased removal.
It's also obvious that Israel's neighbours, including Syria, have been intercepting Iranian and Russian weapons intended for Iran's proxy forces in Lebanon. Syria made publicised seizures thoughout this year and no threats toward Israel have been made by the March interim government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Israel's actions are out of step on this and could lead to more worrying long-term scenarios for them^^
The problem with Israel continuously fostering chaos is that if the fragile peace fails more widely between different groups it could lead either to the downfall of the Syrian government and a power vacuum, or a neighbouring country stepping in with support. Neither of these are necessarily better options for Israel; a stable Syria buffering against Iran and bordering a UN DMZ with Israel has to be better, doesn't it?
PS I don't tend to watch YT videos. A summary would be handy to save time, apologies. I'm intrigued as to why you feel that it's appropriate to use the nom-de-guerre of President Ahmed al-Sharaa,
a slightly more moderate view of al-Jolani
The US is urging President Ahmed al-Sharaa to speed up the integration of minority groups into the government in a bid to even up the balance of power, e.g. there is one female amongst the 23-strong cabinet, who also happens to be Christian.
US Envoy Thomas Barrack has warned that Syria risks losing the momentum for change.
BEIRUT, July 22 (Reuters) - A U.S. envoy has urged Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to recalibrate his policies and embrace a more inclusive approach after a new round of sectarian bloodshed last week, or risk losing international support and fragmenting the country.
US envoy Barrack urged Syria's Sharaa to 'adapt quickly'
Syria could be 'worse' than Libya if Sharaa fails
Syrian troops did not commit abuses against Druze, he says
US urging dialogue to resolve Israeli concerns
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-envoy-urges-syrias-sharaa-revise-policy-or-risk-fragmentation-2025-07-22/
Reportedly, a meeting is scheduled for Thursday between Israel and Syria, brokered by the US to reduce outside influence on fragmentation of Syria from Israel
Turkiye has upped the ante, which should add a little pressure for a successful outcome to Thursday's talks
ANKARA, July 22 (Reuters) - Turkey will directly intervene to stop any attempt to fragment Syria and will prevent any attempts by militants to obtain autonomy after clashes in southern Syria, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Tuesday.
Fidan said Israel wanted a divided Syria to make the country unstable, weaker and a liability to the region, and added that Kurdish YPG militants were looking to take advantage of the chaos. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-says-it-will-intervene-against-any-attempt-divide-syria-2025-07-22/
Kurdish militants have been subject to action by Turkiye both within Turkiye and Syria in the past. A united Syria would tick many boxes for most of the middle-east, including Turkiye
The other element is internal fragmentation. Faster government rebalancing of power within the cabinet will hopefully make Syria more resilient and result in a more widely accepted permanent constitution
But the Kurdish-led administration in north-eastern Syria criticised the constitutional declaration, saying it "contradicts the reality of Syria and its diversity". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70ely2p6e4o
The US is urging President Ahmed al-Sharaa to speed up the integration of minority groups into the government in a bid to even up the balance of power, e.g. there is one female amongst the 23-strong cabinet, who also happens to be Christian.
US Envoy Thomas Barrack has warned that Syria risks losing the momentum for change.
It seems that Syria has listened, at least in part,
July 27 (Reuters) - Syria is expected to hold its first parliamentary election under the new administration in September, the head of the electoral commission told state news agency SANA on Sunday.
The election will increase the number of seats from 150 to 210. A third of the seats will be appointed by the president.
Officials said areas outside government control, including Kurdish-held regions in northern Syria and the Druze-majority province of Sweida, would continue to have seats allocated based on population.
It's widely reported in the middle-east that Jordan is continuing to resist Israel's diplomatic efforts to re-open the border between the Suweida province of Syria and Jordan, which was closed in December, as "a result of the surrounding security conditions in Syria's south". The situation is unlikely to change because Jordan's trade is massively important with the middle-eastern nations, much more so than the small amount of trade with Israel https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0x1n996z4o
The Nov/Dec uprising was a bonus for Jordan because al-Assad's trade in drugs and weapons to the middle east was becoming more intense until he unexpectedly left for Russia https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-61040359
The new government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa has already made an agreement with Jordan, but hasn't been able to get into Suweida to deal with pro-Assad militias there^^
The leaders agreed that coordination was crucial for border security and for curbing arms and drug smuggling, a phenomenon that Jordan struggled to contain along its border during the rule of ousted president Bashar al-Assad, the palace added. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/jordan-king-tells-syrian-interim-president-he-condemns-israeli-attacks-2025-02-26/
Suweida is currently maintaining its independence from the rest of Syria with Israel's help ^^ and Druze under pro-Assad Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri, Israel's Druze leader of choice, has trades to make.
It's interesting that Israel hasn't chosen to open its own border with Suweida to allow Druze peoples to consort freely, proof, maybe, that the enemy of my enemy isn't my friend?
(Probably) Druze militia have broken the ceasefire in Suweida (you'll see it spelt in different ways, including Suweyda)
Aug 3 (Reuters) - Armed groups attacked personnel from Syria's internal security forces in Sweida, killing one member and wounding others, and fired shells at several villages in the violence-hit southern province, state-run Ekhbariya TV reported on Sunday.
The report cited a security source as saying the armed groups had violated the ceasefire agreed in the predominantly Druze region, where factional bloodshed killed hundreds of people last month.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/armed-groups-attack-security-force-personnel-syrias-sweida-killing-one-state-tv-2025-08-03/
Various reports say that four raids were carried out by Israeli forces in the Hader area, a majority-Druze pro-Assad area, within Israel's occupied region of southern Syria.
The area reportedly asked for Israel's protection rather than that of the new Syrian government. Maybe not everyone agreed, which is borne out by polls amongst Syria's Druze communities
This area is north of Suweida and part of the former UN DMZ now occupied by Israel. The Reuter's article is quite brief
Aug 3 (Reuters) - The Israeli military said on Sunday that it conducted a raid on targets in southern Syria the previous day.
It said it seized weapons and questioned several suspects it said were involved in weapons trafficking in the area.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-says-it-conducted-raid-targets-southern-syria-2025-08-03/
Syria signed agreements last week for $14bn of foreign investment in a dozen projects. Qatar, as one example, is to build a new airport ($4bn) which will open Syria up to further investment when completed.
There's a US-Syria meeting tomorrow hosted by Jordan to discuss the further rebuilding of Syria
I would think that this is all off the back of memoranda of understanding signed in May
Just reining Israel in will allow more airlines to schedule flights because many regard flying into an occasional warzone as dodgy
The area reportedly asked for Israel's protection rather than that of the new Syrian government. Maybe not everyone agreed, which is borne out by polls amongst Syria's Druze communities
I think it is closer to the truth that israel has earmarked Syria as being part of the land(Canaan) they claim their god gifted them after fleeing Egypt.
The 'gift' also includes parts of Jordan and Lebanon, so we can expect them to at some point try to take that land too.
The area reportedly asked for Israel's protection rather than that of the new Syrian government. Maybe not everyone agreed, which is borne out by polls amongst Syria's Druze communities
I think it is closer to the truth that israel has earmarked Syria as being part of the land(Canaan) they claim their god gifted them after fleeing Egypt.
The 'gift' also includes parts of Jordan and Lebanon, so we can expect them to at some point try to take that land too.
It's probably a manufactured request by a few Druze groups who will benefit from keeping Syrian forces out.
The difficulty is that the UN are rendered effectively pointless by a US veto, so current talks and the over-stretched IDF will hopefully cause pause for thought on further incursions
In March a deal was reached between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander, Mazioum Abdi, for the SDF to merge with the new Syrian government to form one state of Syria.
Turkiye was hopeful that this would be a major move toward dismantling Kurdish terrorism on both sides of the border, having already reached agreement with the PKK in Turkiye.
On Wednesday agreement was reached between Turkiye and Syria that will address shortcomings in military organisation, structure, discipline and training. In tandem with the "one Syrian state", this should reduce unnecessary killing by Syrian forces,
Turkey and Syria sign memorandum for military cooperation
Ankara aims to support Syria's territorial integrity
Turkey-Syria accord provides for training of troops, arms procurement
Turkey believes Syrian army in need of restructuring, official saysThe article goes on to say,
Turkey has been growing impatient with what it calls the lack of implementation of a March deal between Damascus and the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces to integrate the SDF into the Syrian state apparatus.
Ankara has warned of military action against the SDF, which it considers a terrorist organisation and has targeted in past cross-border operations. It expects the Syrian government to address its security concerns but says it reserves the right to mount an offensive if needed. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-help-syria-with-weapon-systems-equipment-under-new-accord-source-says-2025-08-14/
The problem with the March deal is that the SDF isn't the whole story. The SDF is a coalition of militias fighting on behalf of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).
Those groups question whether the SDF miltary commander has the authority to make agreements for the parties to the coalition forming the SDF and its administration, DAANES.
The YPG militia, a Kurdish People's Protection Unit in NE Syria, doesn't think so and isn't being influenced by the break up of the PKK in Turkiye.
A central government of federal states in Syria, Israel's preference, might be hard to overcome. Turkiye has been sanctioned by the US under Trump v1.0 for attacks within Syria before, so we'll see what happens with their latest warning.
The transitional government has a lot of diplomatic ground to cover before it makes agreements to avoid fallings out in the future
Syria's government are considering a new issue of banknotes to reduce the numbers needed with the existing SYP pound
1 new SYP will be equivalent to 100 old SYP (Reuters)
In July I included a report on Syria's Parliamentary elections^^ scheduled for September
Officials said areas outside government control, including Kurdish-held regions in northern Syria and the Druze-majority province of Sweida, would continue to have seats allocated based on population.
The election will happen, however, it's been decided that due to the ongoing security situation in those regions that elections won't take place there and that the allotted seats will remain open and unfilled. The election is open to external monitoring
The first oil has been officially exported from Syria in 14 years.
The ship sailed from the Port of Tartus, which is now managed by DP World (an Emirati company) after the Syrian Government cancelled the management agreement with Russia in May. Russia still has a naval presence within the port.
Summary:
•Some 600,000 barrels of oil sold to trading firm B Serve Energy, energy ministry official says
•US lifted sanctions after December fall of Assad and end of Syria's civil war
•Firms developing master plan to help explore and extract Syrian oil and gas
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/syria-exports-first-crude-oil-shipment-14-years-official-says-2025-09-01/
The International Atomic Energy Agency has started to test an area of eastern Syria that was believed by the IAEA to be an incomplete secret nuclear reactor (widely reported).
Deir al-Zor was struck by Israel in 2007 and was believed to be a partnership with N. Korea. The reactor wasn't configured to generate electricity (background for those interested)
The US has removed several diplomats from their posts in Istanbul who were working to integrate the US-backed SDF with the Syrian government. The integration would benefit Turkiye, but not Israel, but is still official US policy.
The diplomats were working under Tom Barrack, the U.S. special envoy for Syria and friend of President Donald Trump.
ISTANBUL, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Some of the most senior U.S. diplomats focused on Syria have been abruptly let go from their posts in recent days, according to five people familiar with the matter, a shake-up that comes as Washington seeks to integrate its Syrian Kurdish allies with the central administration in Damascus.
One Western diplomat said the ousting of the U.S. diplomats was in part driven by "a divergence" in views between staffers and Barrack on the issue of the SDF and Sharaa, without elaborating.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-diplomats-syria-abruptly-let-go-amid-pro-damascus-policy-push-sources-say-2025-09-18/
The difficulties of SDF integration have been mentioned ^^ when it became apparent that the spokesman for the SDF had over-stepped his authority and wasn't speaking for all of the different factions
Part of the US National Defense Authorization Act agreed in the US Senate yesterday included a formal repeal of sanctions on Syria. This backs up President Trump's surprise announcement in May
In a surprising move with geopolitical implications, the Senate also adopted a measure to repeal the Caesar Act, a significant piece of legislation that imposed sanctions on the Assad regime in Syria.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61805
Syrian state news agency SANA has reported that President al-Sharaa will meet President Putin in Moscow today. There was a wider conference planned, which was cancelled, but their meeting will go ahead.
Syria is keen to arrest former President al-Assad, currently exiled in Russia, and this announcement keeps Syria's links with Russia open while potentially increasing Russia's footprint in the country, bolstering Iran's position and continuing Russia's presence in the Med.
Israel's strikes on Syria and Israel's demand for an "humanitarian corridor" in south-west Syria (which may be diplo-speak for a continued Israeli presence in the UN DMZ in the Syrian Golan Heights) would be counter-acted by a greater Russian diplomatic presence and, in time, a greater Russian military presence.
This might be seen as an overall benefit in Syria to achieving a single Syrian state.
One assumption is that the Kurdish north-east will fall into line with the greater Syrian state and, if this looks towards Russia, would put Turkiye's mistrust of the Kurdish people in opposition to Russia.
This opposition would probably satisfy the west in terms of Turkiye's solidarity with NATO, but would it be better for Syria?
The other side to that coin is that the US is currently in the process of consolidating eight bases to one and withdrawing US troops supporting the Kurdish NE, as happened under President Trump v1.0 in 2018-19.
Russia has had its own problems with ISIS-K and ISIS fighters are currently held as prisoners by the US-backed SDF. If the Kurdish NE and its SDF military arm remain independent of Syria, which suits Israel, and the US continues to withdraw, might the SDF look toward Russia for support in any event?
The other major factor in all of this are the other states in the middle-east that are fed up with constant instability holding the whole region back on the international stage, hence links being formed with Israel under the 2020 Abraham Accords (until a couple of years ago when war stopped that) and more recently with the US. The greater middle-east isn't a fan of over-reach by either Israel or Iran, but at least Israel could be brought into the fold.
The ceasefire in Gaza is clearly a good thing and a similar withdrawal by Israel from Syrian territory would be a stabilising factor for the whole region. The diplomatic machinations and possibilities are hugely complicated, I don't pretend to understand them and I'm sure that you can think of plenty of alternative scenarios
Syria is keen to arrest former President al-Assad, currently exiled in Russia, and this announcement keeps Syria's links with Russia open while potentially increasing Russia's footprint in the country, bolstering Iran's position and continuing Russia's presence in the Med.
Russia no longer has strong influence or tie in the middle east (except Iran).
The current Syria govt intention to arrest former President al-Assad is merely a way to distract Russia, by following the instruction of their masters.
The entire middle east is practically under the "control" of Israel/USA, with every moves closely monitor.
Syrian state news agency SANA has reported that President al-Sharaa will meet President Putin in Moscow today. There was a wider conference planned, which was cancelled, but their meeting will go ahead.
Syria is keen to arrest former President al-Assad, currently exiled in Russia, and this announcement keeps Syria's links with Russia open while potentially increasing Russia's footprint in the country, bolstering Iran's position and continuing Russia's presence in the Med.
This is a total dead duck. Having mostly got rid of them peacefully, Al Sharaa isn't going to bother picking fights with Russia. And Russia isn't going to hand Assad over, any more than they're going to hand over Yanukovych (Ukraine) or Akayev (Kyrgyzstan) or even Milosevic's son (Serbia).
Russia was pretty cocky in Syria when it came to poncing around the pacified areas and launching the occasional air strike, but servicemen and mercenaries were wiped out in confrontations with the US and Kurds and Islamic State. Their total failure to keep Assad in power or Iran protected, their retreat back to bases and airports, and the ongoing failure to complete a 3 day war in Ukraine has been a cataclysmic disaster.
Also, the Wagner insurrection shattered the model for state-allied mercenaries to pursue mineral-driven adventures in Africa, and without Syria they can't sustain supply lines to those African theatres.
And closer to home, Russia was ruthlessly castrated by Turkey and Azerbaijan, and the failure to "save" Armenia shows how week collective self defence with Russia is. Central Asia has also learned to treat Russia with froideur without actively picking fights.
Pjotr Sauer summarises well in the Grauniad today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/putins-cancelled-russia-arab-summit-signals-waning-influence-in-middle-east
The entire middle east is practically under the "control" of Israel/USA
Cobblers. Turkey, the UAE and Saudi are all independent and important political and militarybplayers. Turkey occupies far more of Syria than Israel does, and just look what Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have wrought in Sudan and Libya. Iran is weakened but not irrelevant either, esp in Iraq and Lebanon. And Israel and the US are not, and never have been, a single team.
And Israel and the US are not, and never have been, a single team.
They are tack team. Obvious is obvious and so obvious.
Israel just bombed Qatar, Trump's new best friend. It has consistently declined to do what Obama, and Biden, and Trump wanted Israel to do in Gaza and Syria. Israel and the US are not a single team. Treating one as a mere servant of the other is simplistic, ahistorical and ignores the agency of each.
This is a total dead duck.
But President al-Sharaa still went.
I think that we forget how tenuous things are in Syria right now, they can't even rebuild the country's electricity grid without the various regional and criminal factions removing the pylons to sell for scrap before any cables have been strung.
Those factions are still separate within what is currently a federal state with a central government. That government isn't representative of the country because it's been deemed too dangerous to hold a national ballot so a proportion of the parliament is represented by empty seats.
While I agree that Russia is losing "weight" all over their previous stomping grounds, Russia has certain benefits that Syria doesn't have diplomatically, including permanent membership of the UN Security Council and a power of veto there.
The likely withdrawal of US forces will cause further problems in the Kurdish NE, where there is already an increase in tension. ISIS fighters held by the US-backed SDF escaped as factions rushed to fill the potential vacuum when the drawdown was first announced in 2019.
Oct 16 (Reuters) - Four oil facility guards were killed in an attack on a bus on a highway east of Syria's Deir al-Zor, state news agency reported on Thursday.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.The latest attack occurred near SDF-controlled areas east of the Euphrates, where skirmishes and tensions between government forces and the SDF have risen in recent days.
The region lies along the border with Iraq and is divided by the Euphrates River between areas controlled by the state and the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led SDF, which controls Syria’s oilfields east of the river.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/casualties-explosion-bus-carrying-oil-facility-guards-syrias-deir-el-zor-state-2025-10-16/
It may be advantageous to Syria for Russia to fill that vacuum rather than ISIS, especially when you consider US diplomatic staff being withdrawn from Istanbul as happened last month ^^ Those diplomats were working to integrate the US-backed SDF with the Syrian government.
Russia has provided a lot of Syria's infrastructure and could be a quicker route to restoring the electricity grid and oil industry. They also supplied most of the weapons used by Syria's military today. I'm the first to agree that none of those things are likely to be forthcoming any time soon; Russia has its own needs for all of the above because of its invasion of Ukraine, but it isn't harming Syria to keep relations warm and open.
I think that a withdrawal by Israel from Syrian territory will be a good start to reinstate UN observers. There are also the means to monitor Syrian troop movements from Israel's soil if that's a genuine concern.
Maintenance of US diplomatic efforts and it's military force are also essential ATM, but if Israeli and US involvement continues on its current trajectory, what choice does Syria have if it's to become an integrated state?
It may be advantageous to Syria for Russia to fill that vacuum rather than ISIS, especially when you consider US diplomatic staff being withdrawn from Istanbul as happened last month ^^ Those diplomats were working to integrate the US-backed SDF with the Syrian government.
It will be foolish for Russia to get involve now.
Let Syria's new backers help them deals with the rebuilding and stabilisation etc.
No point for Russia to waste resources and energy.
It will be foolish for Russia to get involve now.
Let Syria's new backers help them deals with the rebuilding and stabilisation etc.
No point for Russia to waste resources and energy.
And yet they agreed to talks, President to President.
Qatar is struggling to get its $7bn energy project running because armed factions are looting infrastructure faster than the Syrian government can fix it.
Russia is another possible route to finance that infrastructure, whether they get involved in the future is another matter, but there's an opportunity there.
Russia also has an interest in keeping IS fighters imprisoned having suffered in the IS-K attack on Crocus City Hall last year, amongst others, and they'd like to continue use of Syrian naval and air facilities, etc. etc.
Russia is preparing to send a large tanker full of light oil to Syria. It's probably for Syrian use, rather than Africa, because Aframax (Average Freight Rate Assessment Max) vessels are a standard size that can get into most ports and could just sail direct
Russia is set to deliver around 750,000 barrels, or 100,000 metric tons, of a mix of Arctic heavy ARCO oil and gas condensate, a type of light oil, to Syria's Banias port, traders said and LSEG data showed.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-deliver-oil-condensate-cargo-syria-according-lseg-traders-2025-10-22/
In news that's under-reported in the UK (I wonder why),
The government’s decision to remove Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the list of proscribed terrorist organisations will mean closer engagement with the new Syrian government and support UK foreign and domestic priorities, from counter-terrorism to migration and chemical weapons destruction. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-removes-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-from-terrorist-organisation-list
A quick google suggests that it's made a few local papers including the Evening Standard, lincsonline and the Shropshire Star
Turkiye wants more advanced fighter aircraft to counterbalance Israel and Greece in its regional flashpoints.
Israel would rather they weren't supplied so that Israel remains free to strike its neighbours.
I suspect that Turkiye's Russian S400 AD systems will have to be got rid of first so that AD data for western aircraft can't be incorporated in S400 upgrades
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Turkey's bases, rebel allies and support for the army in Syria posed a threat to Israel.
Turkey aims to buy Eurofighter Typhoon, F-16 and F-35 jets
Seeks used Typhoons from Gulf, waiver from US, sources say
US barred Turkey from F-35s after it bought Russian defences
Israeli attacks across region jolted Ankara's efforts to boost air force, air defence
Turkey wants to avoid falling behind Israel, Greece in air power
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkey-pressing-western-fighter-jets-claw-back-regional-edge-2025-10-22/
More detail from the Stimson Center about the balancing act in Syria between Russia, Turkiye, Israel (etc) ^^, the reasons behind it and the thoughts of other Middle-Eastern states
Nine months after Islamist rebels overthrew the Assad dynasty, however, Russian relations with Syria are on an apparent road to recovery. By skillfully using differences among regional actors as well as its status as Syria’s chief weapons supplier, Russia has managed to reconstitute parts of its former influence, including retaining access to three military bases.
As Damascus pursues a multi-vector foreign policy, Russia will evolve from the most powerful external player in Syria to one among a constellation of actors sharing a varying degree of influence in a country struggling to recover from more than a decade of civil war.
https://www.stimson.org/2025/russia-keeps-a-foothold-in-post-assad-syria/
Syria is also negotiating various investment deals across the region, e.g.
Saudi firms plan billion-dollar investments in Syria
US sanctions are 'final chokehold' (removal under the US National Defense Authorization Act, passed a couple of weeks ago^^ and backed by the US Administration)
Countries discussing rail link via Jordan
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-billions-poised-syria-us-sanctions-remain-barrier-2025-10-31/
And on tackling corruption
Sharaa warns officials against lining their pockets
Former rebel commander pivots to civilian leadership
President closes brother's business office, sources say
Post-Assad Syria sees first arrests of officials over graft
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/no-spoils-war-syrias-new-ruler-lays-down-law-loyalists-2025-10-31/
Israel continues to push the boundaries in Syria and has now been accused by Syria of a "full-fledged war crime" by shelling a Syrian village in its pursuit of what it says are Jemaah Islamiyah terrorists. Israel also arrested several residents of the same village a few months ago who haven't been seen since.
The casualty numbers have been developing for a few days, initially five killed, then ten and now thirteen, with six Israeli troops injured.
Neither the US nor other middle-east states appear to have intervened in this situation, despite having had time since the initial raid and arrests. The US would like Syria to join the Abraham Accords, which would be a difficult sell to Syrians at the best of times, but nobody is doing anything to encourage that.
As Henry Kissinger said (of US security) "Absolute security for one nation means absolute insecurity for all nations. We have to be satisfied now with relative security, with security that makes it extremely improbable that our vital interests are threatened but still one that is not totally predominant in the world." (NYT Interview With Kissinger: Eight Years in Washington Evaluated (Jan. 19th 1977))
Syrian state news agency SANA, which reported 13 people killed and dozens wounded, said Israeli forces shelled Beit Jinn at 3:40 a.m. (0140 GMT) and Israeli troops entered the village. Residents confronted the Israeli forces, which responded, leading to "violent clashes", it added.
The Israeli military said "armed terrorists" fired on its troops, and they responded with fire "along with aerial assistance".
"A number of terrorists were eliminated," it said.Syria's foreign ministry said the Israeli attack killed more than 10 civilians including women and children, damaged property and forced residents to flee their homes, accusing Israel of committing a "full-fledged war crime" and warning the strikes threatened security and stability in the region.
"We're a peaceful, civilian population, farmers. We have a legitimate right to defend ourselves. We didn't attack them first - they came onto our land," he told Reuters by phone.
Thanks Timba, for your informed and thoughtful posts on this and other threads
Nothing exceptional seems to have happened in Syria over the last month, unless you happen to be a victim of one of the various attacks and imprisonment invoked by different states and factions.
There's a piece here from The Conversation that summarises some ISIS actions https://theconversation.com/syrias-incomplete-security-transition-has-left-gaps-for-islamic-state-to-exploit-272302
The discussions between the SDF and Syrian government over some form of integration are continuing, despite it looking more likely that the end of year deadline will pass without agreement.
National integration isn't being helped by groups exploiting the lack of state institutions. National accountability is a difficult concept for Damascus, leading to the imprisonment of other communities, especially anyone remotely allied with the al-Assad family through religion or other reasons.
I think that the hope must be that a national government can restore some order to the judicial system, but they're a way off that just now
The discussions between the SDF and Syrian government over some form of integration are continuing, despite it looking more likely that the end of year deadline will pass without agreement.
There have been a confusing series of clashes happening since March when an agreement was supposedly reached between the Kurdish SDF and the Syrian Government. The agreement was reportedly made by a senior SDF commander who wasn't authorised to make such an agreement.
There has been on-off fighting in two Kurdish-majority districts of Aleppo between Government forces and Kurdish Forces for months, however, the SDF denies that it has forces in either district but it has been making ceasefire agreements for months, e.g. in October and again in December.
Kurdish forces seem to have been targetting small ISIS groups. Tensions then rise with Government Forces, fighting breaks out, ceasefire and repeat.
A suicide bomber killed one Government soldier and wounded two others at the end of December, ending another period of relative calm.
Today the last SDF fighters have reportedly left Aleppo under yet another ceasefire, but not before tens of thousands had been displaced by the three-sided fighting.
"Tens of thousands of civilians have also fled the Kurdish majority neighbourhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh, which the Syrian army shelled on Wednesday afternoon after designating them as "closed military areas". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0y1pnq00qo
"Jan 11 (Reuters) - The last Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces fighters have left Aleppo, Syrian state-run Ekhbariya TV said on Sunday.
The SDF head said the group had reached an understanding on a ceasefire and the evacuation of trapped civilians and fighters from Aleppo's Ashrafiyya and Sheikh Maksoud neighborhoods to northern and eastern Syria." https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/last-sdf-fighters-leave-syrias-aleppo-ekhbariya-tv-reports-2026-01-10/
The situation doesn't bode well for any the collapse of the Iranian regime, I wonder if thats partly why the Americans haven't gone in to decapitate the Iranian leadership
The situation doesn't bode well for any the collapse of the Iranian regime, I wonder if thats partly why the Americans haven't gone in to decapitate the Iranian leadership
We should find out some more today, President Trump is meeting to discuss options.
I'm guessing that military options are difficult right now because the US doesn't have a carrier strike group anywhere nearby.
The default option of air strikes is a possibility, but that could lead to Iranian missile retaliation on US middle-eastern forces and other relatively unprotected targets and rapidly escalate. Turkiye has told Israel to keep out of it, don't cross Syria, etc.
I wonder if this is best left to play out, two Iranian parties have been considering this scenario from exile:
There's an option of Maryam Rajavi with a ten point plan that she presented in Europe a decade ago and the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which has 25 committees in exile that perform shadow governmental functions.
The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) aka People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) aka Mojahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO), which was formed in 1965 and contributed to the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. It wanted democracy then but was denied and in turn refused to acknowledge the new constitution.
That stance cost the MEK the chance to stand for the Presidency.
In 1980 the MEK political wing under Massoud Rajavi (disappeared in 2003) and Maryam Rajavi gained the second highest number of parliamentary votes, so the Supreme Leader denied them seats there too.
More recently the son of deposed Shah Pahlavi has been raised as a contender by protesters in Iran. He lives in the US,
Today, Pahlavi presents himself not as a king-in-waiting, but as a figurehead for national reconciliation.
He says he wants to help guide Iran towards free elections, the rule of law and equal rights for women - while leaving the ultimate decision about restoring the monarchy or establishing a republic to a nationwide vote. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62wx1gr8y4o
Syria's government forces have continued to push into Kurdish SDF-held regions, despite the US telling them to stop.
Politically, the US was in a bind because they've supported the Kurdish SDF since 2015 with a small military force, but also support the Syrian Government's call for unity and territorial integrity.
A deal has now been struck between the SDF and Syrian Government. Government forces are clearly stronger than the SDF and under the agreement will take control of the camps containing ISIS prisoners.
Turkiye has welcomed the deal while Syria plans to expel PKK members who aren't Syrian citizens. Both Syria and Turkiye regard Kurdish PKK members as destabilising forces.
"Syria and the main Kurdish fighting force struck a wide-ranging deal to bring Kurdish civilian and military authorities under central government control on Sunday, ending days of fighting in which Syrian troops captured territory including key oil fields.
U.S. envoy Tom Barrack hailed a "pivotal inflection point", but noted that there was still challenging work to be done to finalise details of a comprehensive integration deal."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/syrian-forces-advance-deeper-into-usbacked-kurdishcontrolled-northeast-2026-01-18/
You could argue that the Syrian Government's approach has forced resolution to issues between them and the SDF, e.g. "The deal stipulates that all SDF forces will be merged into the central defence and interior ministries as "individuals" and not as whole Kurdish units."
This now brings Israel-Syria in the south into much sharper focus. The SDF-Syria deal in the north, if it plays out, will have upset PM Netanyahu because it's a big step towards a unified Syria and he'll now see this as a threat to Israel.
His problem is that he's fighting President Trump's policy, pushed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. That policy doesn't plan for "Syria-Israel security arrangements" as pointed out by Chatham House, an independent analyst of international affairs.
"Trump’s short-term approach to diplomacy has fallen short for the same reason. It can unblock initial problems and produce a handshake and a headline but fails to address the more fundamental obstacles.
The EU has the capacity to complement the US approach by providing and overseeing a detailed long-term plan. The bloc is uniquely positioned to lead on Syria due to its institutional experience in conflict resolution and post-conflict stabilization, including in managing sanctions relief, and its willingness to fund and support good governance."
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/trumps-syria-policy-risk-unravelling
Following the advance of Syrian Government Forces in the NE Kurdish-SDF region, both US and Russian forces are likely to withdraw. The US voluntarily, because their presence supporting the SDF is no longer needed, and Russia on request.
ISIS prisoners in the area, formerly guarded by the SDF, are being moved to camps in Iraq by US forces.
The NE airbase at Qamishli is one of three significant Russian bases in Syria, but it doesn't appear to have much use now that the SDF is on the backfoot.
Iranian forces, who also used the facility, seem to have greater worries at home.
Russia has recently been building up forces on the base, but that appears to be in defence of the facility because the opposing fighters have paused nearby,
"QAMISHLI, Syria, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Syrian troops and Kurdish forces were massed on opposing sides of front lines in northern Syria on Saturday, as the clock ticked down to an evening deadline that would determine whether they resume fighting or lay down their arms.
Neighbouring Turkey, as well as some officials in Syria, said late on Friday that the deadline could be extended."
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrian-troops-kurdish-forces-poised-front-lines-truce-deadline-looms-2026-01-24/
Russian withdrawal,
"The Syrian government is preparing to formally request the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Qamishli military airbase, located in the country’s northeast near the Turkish border, according to sources cited by The Moscow Times and Kommersant on January 21."
https://united24media.com/latest-news/damascus-may-expel-russian-troops-from-strategic-qamishli-base-15223
If this Russian withdrawal happens then it follows the gist of Forbes reporting in August 2025; the full article is worth reading.
Russia has a much greater use for its reduced footprint in Tartus port and Hmeimim air base, which hosts a greater variety of aircraft types, than it does Qamishli.
A withdrawal agreement in the NE will likely help them to retain the southern bases,
"Moscow has likely concluded it’s better off reaching terms with Sharaa over basing rights and developing military and economic relations to “recover some of its political influence” in Damascus, especially if it has concluded he aims to become the master of all Syria.
“The wildcard is what this means for Iran’s influence in Syria, given how integrally the Russian position in the country has been tied to the Iranians,” he said.
“It does not seem accidental that the reports — murky as they are — of IRGC (Iran’s powerful paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) activities in Syria since Assad’s demise have concentrated on the coast and around Qamishli, in those places where Russia still has a footprint.”"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2025/08/15/what-russias-military-is-doing-in-this-strategic-syria-airport/
US abandons Syria’s Kurds, risking regional turmoil and an IS resurgence, an article (linked below) by Kamran Matin, Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Sussex. He's disclosed for the article that he's affiliated with the Kurdish Peace Institute.
The story for me is US policy, which is in danger of creating long-term risks within Syria, Iraq and beyond,
US policy in west Asia has repeatedly generated blowback – from support for the anti-Soviet Afghan jihad of the 1980s to the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the chaotic 2022 withdrawal from Afghanistan. Abandoning the Kurds in favour of an anti-Iranian government in Syria risks repeating this pattern.
https://theconversation.com/us-abandons-syrias-kurds-risking-regional-turmoil-and-an-is-resurgence-274169
One of the big problems in any conflict are the claims and counter-claims, e.g. Syrian Government Forces claim that SDF fighters released ISIS prisoners and destroyed CCTV monitors in one jail to make the job of Government Forces more difficult, while SDF claim that prisoners were released by armed “Damascus factions”.
Both sides in this conflict fought ISIS forces, although President al-Sharaa was supported by al-Quaeda a decade ago. He refused to join ISIS and cut ties with AQ before successfully leading the overthrow of al-Assad.
You decide 😀
It remains unclear who freed the prisoners in Shaddadi. The SDF claimed the armed men involved were “Damascus factions” and that several of its fighters had been beheaded.
It said in a statement that the US-led anti-IS coalition did not respond despite repeated appeals for assistance to a nearby coalition base. The US military’s central command did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/19/kurdish-led-forces-clashes-syrian-army-prison-holding-is-inmates
Syrian trade surges nearly sixfold a year after government takeover
In December 2025 Syria’s seaborne trade increased by 769% compared to December 2024, when the civil war ended
Experts say that we can expect an ongoing flow of crude and oil products in addition to dry cargo as the country tries to rebuild
Russia remains the main crude oil supplier to Syria, while the amount of cargo going to the country from EU countries continues to increase
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156250/Syrian-trade-surges-nearly-sixfold-a-year-after-government-takeover
The U.S. had fewer than 1,000 troops in Syria. That estimate will now be lower following Thursday's completion of its withdrawal from the al-Tanf camp on the Syria/Jordan/Iraq border to Jordan.
I don't know how many camps they have left, but it must be very low single figures now.
The optimistic comment is, "It's probably the right gamble…(but) it's still somewhat unknown if they (Syria) actually live up to that responsibility"
"WASHINGTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. military said it completed a withdrawal from a strategic base in Syria on Thursday, handing it over to Syrian forces, in the latest sign of strengthening U.S.-Syrian ties that could enable an even larger American drawdown.
The al-Tanf garrison is positioned at the tri-border confluence of Syria, Jordan and Iraq.""David Adesnik at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think-tank in Washington questioned Syrian forces' ability to pick up the slack following the U.S. departure.
"And the Syrian army has incorporated thousands of ex-jihadists," Adesnik said.
"The mission at Tanf also served as an obstacle to the operations of Iran and its proxies, who ship weapons across Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is an own goal."""Daniel Shapiro, a former senior Pentagon official for Middle East issues, said it appeared Trump's goal was to end the role of U.S. forces in Syria and the withdrawal from al-Tanf was a bet on the Syrian government's ability to counter ISIS.
"It's probably the right gamble…(but) it's still somewhat unknown if they actually live up to that responsibility," Shapiro, now with the Atlantic Council, said." https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-says-it-has-taken-control-al-tanf-base-vacated-by-us-troops-2026-02-12/
There are concerns that wives and children of jihadists have been radicalised during their years in detention at al-Hol camp. US reports say that Syrian Government forces failed to co-ordinate with SDF forces as the SDF left. During a gap of several hours 15-20,000 people left the camp and have already turned up in neighbouring countries.
U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that 15,000 to 20,000 people, including Islamic State affiliates are now at large in Syria, after an exodus from a camp that held jihadists’ families, U.S. officials familiar with the estimate said.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-intelligence-says-at-least-15-000-at-large-after-isis-detention-camp-collapses-in-syria-3ede991b
