Unconfirmed report that a plane suspected of carrying Assad may have crashed.
https://www.axios.com/2024/12/08/syria-damascus-assad-regime-collapse
A Syrian Ilyushin-76 plane suspected of carrying Assad departed Damascus airport shortly before the rebels entered, according to FlightRadar.
The plane made its way northwest and then turned near the city of Homs and rapidly decreased its altitude before disappearing.
I reckon that right about now Russia is desperately trying to negotiate safe use of Tartus amd Khmeimim airbase, because without them they will struggle to support their troops propping up juntas in subsaharan Africa, sudan etc , the Russians tried to play both sides in Libiya so thats unlikely.
Russia will be negotiating with a Government on the receiving end of Russian air strikes and Assad's various Russian supported misery. And that's before you remember the decades of oppression from the Assad regime Russia aided with.
Seems like a hard ask.
The main thing I'd be looking for in some fantasy scenario where I was the new Syrian government would be kicking out as many of the foreign powers using Syria as a geopolitical pawn as possible. Including the US and Iran, hard to see Turkey's influence being easy to shift.
This article describes the US presence in Syria, although I dont really know how reliable it is.
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Strong rumours that Russian naval forces have been given the order to abandon Tartus (for realsies this time)
Latakia is important to Russia's defence of the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. It's a port situated north on the M1 major road to Khmeimim and then Tartus, while Tartus itself is also on the M1 from Homs
It's interesting that Russia's ships began to sail from Tartus on the 2nd Dec, which was confirmed on satellite as empty on the 3rd, to take part in a "naval exercise" in the Med, as you do when a rebellion started a few days before.
Then you sail some ships back, as confirmed by Foreign Minister Lavrov from the Doha Forum yesterday.
Uncoordinated evacuation that left people/materiel behind? Defence of Latakia and Tartus? Deal?
Uncoordinated evacuation that left people/materiel behind? Defence of Latakia and Tartus? Deal?
I suspect covering a bit of everything, Tartus has successfully repelled several drone swarm attacks in recent years. negotiations with HTS or whoever is in charge will be frantic for Russia.
if Assad's plane crashed prigorzhin style i wouldn't be surprised, which country would want him?
Unconfirmed report that a plane suspected of carrying Assad may have crashed.
I'm going to go a bit conspiracy theory here, but was al-Assad in Syria during December?
He was in Moscow meeting President Putin during November according to Russia Telegram chat
Peskov said he had "nothing to say" on the matter. https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-it-wants-syria-swiftly-restore-order-after-rebel-attack-2024-11-29/
and reportedly flew back to Syria on Saturday 30th, the same day that rebels took Aleppo
He reportedly met Iranian officials in Damascus on 1st Dec
On 6th Dec Syrian TV reported that he'd gone to Iran, but later retracted the report...
It's all reports without appearances in Syria.
Hmmmm
if Assad’s plane crashed prigorzhin style i wouldn’t be surprised, which country would want him?
When dictators flee they generally flee with a good chunk of the nations gold reserves and with Swiss bank accounts set up ready.
Add in a entourage used to living high and splashing the cash and sadly there are plenty of places that will have him.
When dictators flee they generally flee with a good chunk of the nations gold reserves and with Swiss bank accounts set up ready.
This one has been fleecing the country for decades so the funds are going to be in the tens of billions, maybe considerably more.
Russia is on the look out for funds, and as a previous ally, its possible he's fled there.
I'm not sure a crash is why the aircraft went of radar, more likely it just switched its transponder off
Israel has attacked Syrian military depots on the outskirts of Damascus and elsewhere to put abandoned missile stocks out of reach of groups that might target them
Ukraine reports that the remaining Russian fleet has left Tartus
On 8 December 2024, the Admiral Grigorovich frigate of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Inzhener Trubin cargo ship of the Russian Northern Fleet departed from Tartus and headed to the Mediterranean Sea.
In addition, the Russians are transferring remnants of their weapons and military equipment from Syria's Khmeimim airfield."
I hope for the sake of Syrian people there won't be an extension of the civil war that sees internecine fighting between the various rebel/religious/ethnic groups. I hope that if they do take power HtS don't turn out to be Isis/Daesh. I will take 50p of anyone's money to bet that what Syria won't be is a secular parliamentary democracy any time soon.
And I take HTS’s claims that they have left their ISIS views behind as seriously as I took Taliban2’s
I'm inclined to be sceptical too. Also true that people on the ground seem to willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now at least.
My thoughts entirely Ernesto. I got a feeling of Deja vu watching them interviewed and give assurances that other religions would be treated equally and women wouldn’t be reduced to slaves and baby-carriers
Yeah, right
I hope that if they do take power HtS don’t turn out to be Isis/Daesh
You can stick lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig. As Ernesto pointed out, this is exactly what the Taliban did and look how that’s worked out. These people are exactly the same ultra-hardline, fundamentalist loons, they’re just (temporarily) indulging in a bit of PR
I share the concerns but HTS in recent years have actually fought and arrested ISIS members, there are reasons to be hopeful apart from blind naivety.
Europe, Turkey and the USA all have a strong interest in a stable Syria so there is common interest and potential cooperation there, even if they're unlikely to turn into Belgium overnight.
To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad's fall there's already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home.
Even if 'the West' is understandably wary, the Syrians themselves seem fairly hopefull; the Christian neighbourhoods in Damamscus were celebrating last night just like the Sunni ones.
Time will tell.
I wonder how much ‘room and board’ he’ll be paying to Putin for that?
Israel has attacked Syrian military depots on the outskirts of Damascus and elsewhere to put abandoned missile stocks out of reach of groups that might target them
Any independent confirmation of that, or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?
To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad’s fall there’s already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home.
That was the only longer term positive I took from the news.
or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?
There probably aren't any left that Assad's regime or Russia haven't already destroyed. From Wiki:
After Russia began military operations in Syria, aerial bombardment intensified.[8] In 2015, there were more than 300 attacks on medical facilities by Syrian and Russian forces.[9] From May to December 2016, medical facilities were attacked about 200 times by Russian and Syrian forces.[10]
It would be nice to see an atheist faction take over for once.
That's happened quite a few times.
There probably aren’t any left that Assad’s regime or Russia haven’t already destroyed.
I’m sure the ones the Russians bombed were really terrorist command centres.
To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad’s fall there’s already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home
The same happened in plenty of places during the Arab Spring though. Plenty of disparate groups put their differences aside and united to throw out oppressive established regimes. Lots of people then found themselves then being ruled by hardline fundamentalists like ISIS which they would never have supported
I suspect we’ll now see the traditional infighting with those who are prepared to be the most brutal coming out on top.
One positive thing to come out of this though, whatever happens, is that Iran will have to reign in its endless regional shit-stirring. This is a major kick in the nuts for them. As it is for Putin and Russias as well
It would be nice to see an atheist faction take over for once.
Tibetans would disagree.
Didn’t Assad just humiliate Pootin?
I have no idea if this is true, it allegedly comes from an Iranian official source, but I have heard the suggestion that Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS were preparing to make a move but he allegedly ignored it.
Apparently when Aleppo fell the Iranians were prepared to use their troops to help Assad expecting him to ask for assistance but when the request never came they became convinced that he didn't want to remain in power.
Iran then decided to engage in diplomatic talks with the rebels to secure the safe exit of their troops out of Syria. It does sound feasible to me that Assad decided to throw in the towel and spend his final days quietly in Russia.
The same source claims that it was Russia and the UAE who convinced Assad to give up power. Although I am not sure what benefit Assad giving up power brings to Russia. Other than perhaps allowing them to concentrate more on Ukraine? Although with Trump returning to the Whitehouse next month will that even be necessary?
It invented Stella, so just think how much that’s contributed to global conflict
the Christian neighbourhoods in Damamscus were celebrating last night just like the Sunni ones.
If they were "celebrating" I suspect they were doing so because they feared the consequences of not celebrating. They certainly have much to fear of the jihadists who have seized power. I am not quite so sure what they had to fear from Assad.
I personally have only spoken at length to one Syrian in recent years, she is a Christian who lives in Aleppo and comes regularly to London to stay with her son who lives here. She is/was a huge supporter Assad believing that he guaranteed the security of Christians in Syria. She claimed that the Christian area of Aleppo was not targeted by government forces as the rebels were not active there (Aleppo had previously been held by rebels) and that the only real danger to life came from rebel missiles.
There are numerous accounts of Syrian Christians fearing the rebel advances, here's just one but if you Google it you will find many more.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/06/aleppo-christians-syria-rebel-offensive-assad/
It invented Stella, so just think how much that’s contributed to global conflict
Most of that conflict is confined to the pavement outside the local 'Spoons.
Thinking about it, I’m quite glad that Islamic fundamentalists don’t drink. Imagine a bunch of angry jihadists after 8 pints of Stella each? That’d make for one challenging 3am kebab house visit
some horrufic stuff coming out about Syrias prisons
https://bsky.app/profile/newseye.bsky.social/post/3lcsyfps2a22n
meanwhile
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lct53vh3fc2h
Imagine a bunch of angry jihadists after 8 pints of Stella each?
Bloke in my cycling group loves a Stella or two, thank goodness he hasn't got a wife.
HTS have got some form.
We have been receiving disturbing reports of continued detention of civilians, including humanitarian workers, in Idlib, northwestern Syria, in areas under the control of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other armed groups. We have also been receiving deeply troubling reports of executions following the detentions and so-called trials by the de facto authorities.
Just this week, on Wednesday, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham confirmed that it was holding a 28-year-old woman, Noor al-Shallo, a humanitarian and media worker, allegedly on "moral" and "criminal" charges. Her family has not had any contact with her since she was detained by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham members in September at the HTS-linked Sarmada "court" in Idlib while she was following up on issues relating to the custody of her three children. We have seen a number of reports suggesting that she may be at risk of execution.
whatever happens, is that Iran will have to reign in its endless regional shit-stirring. This is a major kick in the nuts for them.
al Assad running away means that Iran has so far;
Lost access to the Med
reportedly $30B down the drain
Land bridge to Lebanon is gone
Hezbollah supply lines cut
Their regional plan has literally gone up in smoke...I doubt they'll take it on the chin.
Any independent confirmation of that, or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?
It's widely reported, e.g. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/suspected-israeli-strikes-hit-part-damascus-two-security-sources-say-2024-12-08/
No mention of schools or hospitals, but then it wasn't the Syrian air force which does have form
The bombs smashed into a child care center, a refugee camp and a school. They destroyed makeshift clinics and hospitals, disabling essential services for tens of thousands of people.
Over the past year, attacks on buildings in northwestern Syria, which are supposed to be off limits during wartime under international law, grew so frequent that the head of the United Nations launched an inquiry to document the violations. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/31/world/middleeast/syria-united-nations-investigation.html
I’m sure the ones the Russians bombed were really terrorist command centres.
We'll probably never know...
Secretary General António Guterres's establishment of the investigation is seen by many diplomats as a success at a United Nations largely stymied by division in the powerful Security Council. Russia, a Syrian government ally and a major perpetrator of these attacks, has cast 14 vetoes in the Security Council since the start of the war in Syria, blocking accountability efforts and hindering humanitarian aid deliveries into Syria. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/31/world/middleeast/syria-united-nations-investigation.html
The bombs smashed into a child care center, a refugee camp and a school. They destroyed makeshift clinics and hospitals, disabling essential services for tens of thousands of people.
So we’re agreed that bombing schools and hospitals is A Bad Thing, right ?
I have no idea if this is true, it allegedly comes from an Iranian official source, but I have heard the suggestion that Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS were preparing to make a move but he allegedly ignored it.
Apparently when Aleppo fell the Iranians were prepared to use their troops to help Assad expecting him to ask for assistance but when the request never came they became convinced that he didn’t want to remain in power.
I think that you're right to be sceptical. It sounds like someone exaggerating the strength of their army to put rebels at home off and to maintain a position in the wider region
https://bsky.app/profile/aljazeera.com/post/3lcubk5tvac2b
Hopefully they understand better than me, like a few on here, I'm lacking optimism.
Israel has already both invaded and bombed Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime.
Yeah but Assad - I excuse me, AL-Assad - has already bombed the hospitals so we’ll be spared that. I suppose they can always move on to the mosques and other terrorist infrastructure.
