MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
Having lived through the first Dot.com boom the current crazy prices of Tesla and Bitcoin etc have a similar whiff about them.
Having done fairly well on RR shares this year am curious what the collective STW wisdom thinks which shares/stocks might see a bounce when the (possibly) inevitable emperors attire is exposed?
Surely there is some under valued stock that is seen as boring and staid but will in n days/weeks/months be seen as the bastion of financial prudence.
For me at the moment Greggs is one I am waiting for a dip to buy. What y'all watching?
Very buoyant market for 12 maybe 18 months, post brexit, trump, covid driven by false confidence/hubris leading to massive profit taking then shit hit fan.....
Apply the above to UK housing (might take bit longer maybe 24 months)
FTSE might get above 8000? Maybe more. Deregulation of UK will fail (race to the bottom finished some time ago and markets are already owned by China)
Lot of bravado coming.
I am cashing out property pensions and business in November this year.
Banks, namely Lloyds. I may be very wrong.
If I knew that I’d have XTR on my bike. Guess some form of events/holiday companies will rise but you’d be brave to put in now. Something like Arena events as they operate in more than Uk.
Alao Tories will keep feeding other people's cash into the economy to keep it looking good. They will stop that in 2 to 3 years time before next election to show fiscal "responsibility" but it will be to late. If they loose its Labours problem, if they win it matters not they can go full "Austerity"
To be honest non of this is rocket science as there are few variables beyond another covid.
Hydrogen and energy storage.
and energy storage
Like Tesla?
Aldi and Lidl.
Small arms manufacturers.
Sellers of barbed wire.
Diesel generators.
Tinned food.
Toilet roll makers.
Tesla and Bitcoin are very different entities.
Tesla is an over valued but profitable company with a good future ahead of it e.g. market leading product, ahead of the competition in technology and a devoted fan base who happily buy their products.
Bitcoin is a speculative asset with no underlying value and no real purpose (it's not a fiat currency and never will be).
At some point Tesla will get corrected, or eventually it's sales might grow to the point where it's current valuation isn't too insane.
Bitcoin is totally unpredictable and will suffer massive peaks and troughs as speculators come and go.
Bitcoin has crashed before without any real knock on effect to the rest of the market. I suspect Tesla will only get corrected during the next tech rout, which is probably a while away yet.
https://www.deepverge.com/&ved=2ahUKEwiNjJXM5o_uAhVBzIUKHfdzCDUQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw0IBRA7BxoaYgkHxLREkWjN&cshid=161022800715 0">Deepverge are doing well at the moment.
Next 2 years event based stuff spas posh hotels should have a spike upward.
Whoever wins the ev race I don't think Elon musk will Maybe VW but they have recovered in the last few months so less profit.
Hollands pies.
Tesla - Worlds going electric so being a market leader they will only do well in the future.
Bitcoin is a con, a swizz and destined to expand and expand until it eventually bursts, leaving the backers in the money, and the rest counting their losses.
I find it interesting Max Kaiser is a backer of bitcoin, though he appears to like to pretend it is the money of the people, when in fact it appears he is only in it to grab some of the cash for himself before that bubble goes pop. I feel he, other than talk about stocks and shares but doesnt really play a part, whereas with bitcoin being new and easy to obtain, he wants to be one of those players he's forever demonizing.
Must be part of the new socialist thinking.
Gregs. Can’t wait to get back on the veggie sausage roll express.
Well, I'm expecting to get into Boeing this coming week if it pans out [ actually just pans] as expected.
Sorry, but there it is.
I'll stick with BAE Systems. always some dictator out there wanting weapons.
Tulips. Always tulips.
What if Apple or Tesla buy bitcoin as microstrategy are doing ?
Footflaps. Totally agree!
If Elon just mentions bitcoin in a sentence, the price will go mad.
Forget bitcoin, it's only a matter of months for Elon to be crowned Emperor of Mars. Invest in Mars.
Or Snickers if you really like nuts.
The key thing with any type of investment will be diversity in what you invest in and the willing ability to be able to shrug off losses when they slide.
I used to work for a share trading bank and did some investing because, well, everyone else was doing it. Some of the stock has done well (some renewables, some industrials), some has done poorly (a Canadian company I thought was undervalued, some banks ditto). I think I am currently ahead, but I have mentally written off the junk and they are just marked as something to keep an eye on in the future in case they ever get back to break even.
Tesla is an over valued but profitable company with a good future ahead of it e.g. market leading product, ahead of the competition in technology and a devoted fan base who happily buy their products.
Definitely have a fan base, but market leading products and ahead of the competition? Not anymore now the big car companies are in on the EV game.
Cineworld, Hollywood Bowl if you are brave.
My limited trading knowledge shows bubbles are good as long as you exit at the point you nan asks how to invest in them. The cost of a wheel set into BTC or Tesla a year ago along with ignoring logic would have delivered quite the upgrade today.
Next ask is Tesla really that good or is £/$ value falling gains it in an inefficient market.
With the current political climate in America being pretty rocky shares in Smith and Wesson are a good bet.
Not anymore now the big car companies are in on the EV game.
Is that true or in your dream because the numbers don't back you up.
Leagues ahead on battery tech and charger infrastructure even if QC is a bit hit and miss....but then VW haven't exactly got a handle on that either
Is that true or in your dream because the numbers don’t back you up.
No, it’s not a dream other companies have spent billions investing in EV tech and are rolling out proper production now.
Leagues ahead on battery tech and charger infrastructure even if QC is a bit hit and miss….but then VW haven’t exactly got a handle on that either
Leagues ahead? Toyota are ready with your solid state batteries others are hot on the heels. They no longer have lead they once had.
Yes there charging network is ahead but again that is changing, we are due a charging station from ionity being built here is coming months with up 350kw chargers.
Why does tech, infrastructure of logic even matter if money is being printed, stock purchased by the government/FED and stimulus being handed out in the US?
Doesn’t matter how Tesla compare to VW, Toyota or anyone else if the above continue. Damn, if their rally continues they will use their stock buy VW 😂
Why does tech, infrastructure of logic even matter if money is being printed
Well yes that's true but my point still stands. Global market share In 2020 suggest the others have away to go to get Tesla off the top spot.
It makes very little difference on tech with cars it's down to numbers in the end VW and the likes can produce thousands of them all 99.9% too spec reliable and cheaper than Elon musk. That will drive sales just because he was one of the first is no assurance of future growth. I also think he want space travel more than cars as a business.
Define big car companies - the Hyundai/Kia cars are very good. They're the real competition for the 3 and the Y. The i-pace is good. VW going somewhere though the id3 is a bit of an acquired taste.
Audi's offering isn't that great, unless you like driving buses. Merc and BMW are not very good - luxurious and a huge price to match. If they don't pull their finger out they'll suffer. The Volvo is nowhere near as good as the Polestar -go figure - I've driven both. Again, the XC40 electric is just an expensive electric barge , the Polestar feels like a car.
Some, but not all of the mainstream brands are chasing Tesla, some have some work to do
You’ve named most.
VAG have lots on the pipeline and yes Audi have the big luxury market it’s what they do anyway. Ford, Nissan, Renault and Peugeot are producing them Nissan again were email implementors but they were limited. There’s a big incentive now for companies to build them rather than then get in their first.
I mean I'm sure you are aware that Tesla isn't just a car company right so probably doesn't give much of a toss what VW's accountants are doing.
One of their most interesting developments I find is their decentralised micro generation storage and distribution power network. In countries such as ours where land is a premium or infrastructure is aged and every where has a NIMBY opposing large infrastructure going up near them ......the clever part is it's a good idea and the public pay for and maintain it.
While musk as a person is deplorable I have to admire his willingness to go way out there and stand behind it rather than building the same thing everyone else is.
More than aware of power walls ect but they are a very copied idea already no IP protection. People are doing it on YouTube already and it's working great.
The roof tiles should have been pushed as a mass production idea.
Storage is I agree a good idea of theirs but the Chinese will make it cheaper for Africa and the east as they own most of the government/power generators due to the silk road building program.
Definitely have a fan base, but market leading products and ahead of the competition? Not anymore now the big car companies are in on the EV game.
By all accounts I've read it is technically ahead yes. The biggest difference they have is they can sell EVs at a profit, which currently no one else can. Kia etc loose money on every Electric Soul sold, which is why they limit the production to significantly below demand.
Another key difference is they only make EVs and start with the battery and build outwards. All the others are trying to build EVs on generic platforms, which means their EVs are a compromise from the start.
Tesla still outsells all other EV manufactures combined and whilst that won't last, I suspect they'll be around for a while.
I'm not a Tesla fan boy nor a fan of Elon Musk, but everything I've read suggests they have an excellent product and everyone else is struggling to catch up.
but the Chinese will make it cheaper for Africa and the east as they own most of the government/power generators due to the silk road building program.
They're scaling right back on the Silk Road program after a huge run of bad debts from their investments abroad. Turns out lending billions was the easy bit, they didn't bother to ask whether their debtors could ever pay it back. It also turns out hounding countries for debts they can't pay doesn't buy you much good will....
More than aware of power walls ect but they are a very copied idea already no IP protection.
It's just a battery and inverter, no IP to be had. The USP is access to large numbers of relatively cheap Li-ion cells, which they make themselves (in partnership with Panasonic IIRC).
Tbh the IP is not the battery but the usage learning software and tarrifs you can access off the back of it
Without the tarrifs and the usage learning you'd need to be committed to throwing money away to take a powerwall .
As I said before it's quite a clever way of getting the consumer to finance the grid.
It's that sort of thing that gives me faith in Tesla's future
Bitcoin has crashed before without any real knock on effect to the rest of the market.
In 2017 when bitcoin hit its last peak I bought into gold (via iShares physical metals ETF) and it was up over 50% last year - more like 40% now, but still, it's a punt I'd take again based on the current frothy market.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1340581313406001153?lang=enIf Elon just mentions bitcoin in a sentence, the price will go mad.
Bitcoin is a speculative asset with no underlying value and no real purpose (it’s not a fiat currency and never will be).
The more it rises in price, the more valid a store of wealth it becomes. The insane recent gains aren't (just) being driven by internet geeks having a gamble, they're big wodges of institutional money entering the market.
A lot of the much vaunted Baillie Gifford investment funds are very Tesla heavy. They’ve been forging ahead over the last year, but be careful balancing portfolios that you don’t get too exposed to Tesla.
The more it rises in price, the more valid a store of wealth it becomes. The insane recent gains aren’t (just) being driven by internet geeks having a gamble, they’re big wodges of institutional money entering the market.
Define 'valid'. I would say the more it rises the less stable it becomes and therefore the higher risk. It's supposed to be a currency, only no one uses it as such (except paedophiles, drug dealers and a few fanatic believers in the true cause). It's just become the modern day 'Tulips', people are only buying it because it goes up. It has no intrinsic worth, isn't backed by any asset, is totally unregulated, generates no dividends, etc etc.
A lot of the much vaunted Baillie Gifford investment funds are very Tesla heavy. They’ve been forging ahead over the last year, but be careful balancing portfolios that you don’t get too exposed to Tesla.
SMT is only 10% and they regularly rebalance the portfolio to keep the holding in check. Personally I think it's a relatively low risk way of profiting from Tesla, as you buy exposure at about 10%, ride any gains for a few months, then they take the profits and buy something lower risk eg Amazon is their number 2 holding at 7% of the fund. Over the last year, rather than getting the full 7x gain of Tesla, I've doubled my money via SMT; but as it was lower risk I put a lot more money in SMT than I would be happy buying Tesla with.
It was always my understanding that China never expected the cash to be paid back they wanted real estate and that's what that got. But that's another thread.
Bit coin is a dirty word on here with some. But as a investment/horse race it's done me fine and still is tbh. Wouldn't put the house on it but while it's about and I can turn a profit I still will.
Define ‘valid’. I would say the more it rises the less stable it becomes and therefore the higher risk. It’s supposed to be a currency, only no one uses it as such (except paedophiles, drug dealers and a few fanatic believers in the true cause). It’s just become the modern day ‘Tulips’, people are only buying it because it goes up. It has no intrinsic worth, isn’t backed by any asset, is totally unregulated, generates no dividends, etc etc.
The FT set out both sides better than I can here: https://www.ft.com/content/608acefb-22ca-44e2-a438-2d874b37d695
Also, advocates would say that everything you've written above also basically applies to gold (jewellery and semiconductors not withstanding, but let's say blockchain is a parallel for those).
I've paid a sparky in bit coin. And been paid in it not sure what that makes me.
BoE are worried a lot of people are going to get cleaned out....
BOE?
FCA do that every 12 months.
Bank of England dipped their toe in a few years ago and got bored. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/fintech/proofs-of-concept/ripple
They are just trying to scare away the weak hands, so the institutions can buy at lower prices.
I like Baillie Gifford. Trust them to manage my Tesla exposure more than I trust myself.
AFC Energy .... Hydrogen power cells, supporting the upcoming extreme E race series, just signed an agreement with ABB and Ricardo. 17pence start of December and peaked around 90p. Just had bit of a lull but back up to 78p today after shares being revalued at £1.91 from a new broker.
I like Baillie Gifford. Trust them to manage my Tesla exposure more than I trust myself.
Active funds under perform against the general market. You hear the about the lucky ones and don't hear about the thousands that aren't lucky. Past performance isn't an indicator of future success.
Tesla is an over valued but profitable company with a good future ahead of it e.g. market leading product, ahead of the competition in technology and a devoted fan base who happily buy their products.
Car companies in general have never been good investments. There are a few, such as Toyota, that have mastered low-cost, high-quality manufacturing, but most of the mass-market car companies have struggled for many decades (see Renault-Nissan, for example). Niche manufacturers like BMW are a bit different, they make expensive toys for wealthy people and have huge profit margins. Tesla are competing with BMW, not Toyota, but just aren't very profitable. To compete with Toyota, they will need to make cheap, boring cars with very high quality control. Making a good expensive car is much easier than making a good cheap car. I can't see Tesla becoming a market leader in mass-produced cars, I think they will be lucky to survive as a niche manufacturer.
On the other hand, they may do well as a technology company, supplying batteries, etc. I think there will be much more profit to be made in the technology side of things than in the manufacturing side.
Gamestop
Having lived through the first Dot.com boom the current crazy prices of Tesla and Bitcoin etc have a similar whiff about them.
Not that I'm justifying Bitcoin or Tesla, but...
The current tech 'bubble' and the 2000 one are very different. The first tech boom, around 2000, was based on a huge amount of hype, the big bets at the time were fiddling the books and blatantly lying about results eg Enron etc. I worked for a tiny start up with sales of under $1m a year which was valued at $4bn at the peak (our CEO was also blatantly lying about our sales figures).
The current tech boom, FB, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google etc is very differently. Hugely succesful companies, generating huge profits with near monopolies in their market spaces. So, fundamentally they are all very valuable companies, with room to still grow.
Tesla are Bitcoin are also very different. Tesla is a real company, with a real product and profitable. It's sales figures are growing and it's market leader in a space which is going to massively expand. It's also very optimisticaly valued!
Bitcoin is nothing, no intrinsic value, zip. It's just a speculative asset 99.999% of people buying don't even understand. It will never become a currency, but might just end up as another asset like Gold / Silver (although they do have intrinsic value).
A lot of the much vaunted Baillie Gifford investment funds are very Tesla heavy. They’ve been forging ahead over the last year, but be careful balancing portfolios that you don’t get too exposed to Tesla.
SMT was 10% last time I looked, they rebalance for you as each fund as a maximum % they can hold in any one stock, so once every few months the fund will sell Tesla and buy more of the others.
Active funds under perform against the general market. You hear the about the lucky ones and don’t hear about the thousands that aren’t lucky. Past performance isn’t an indicator of future success.
On average they do under perform, however some do beat the market for a few years. SMT has more than doubled since I've owned it (2 years), making it my best performing asset by a long shot. I first bought it in my wife's SIPP 3 years ago and her stake has more than trebled in that time! If I look at the companies (other than Tesla) in it, they're all pretty solid bets eg Amazon is their #2 holding; so I'm happy to stick with it. Their recent rebalance has taken profit from Tesla's rise last year, so the exposure is only 10% now.