[Closed] So, Scotland, again...

What about the near half a million English folk living here, will they be allowed to vote, I should hope so. Maybe they would make up for the Scots that are living happily in England that you feel should move home to vote ?

Yes, I'm allowed to vote. I won't however, as I believe it is there choice to make.

That because it is not an independent nation - what is the radical change they need to expect then - its nothing at all isnt it

Its a weak argument against and i am not pin dancing further with you

For scotland to join the EU as an independent member they have to agree to accept the Euro. Pretty radical move if you ask me.

Its going really really well for small independent nation states in the Eurozone at the moment, isn't it? 😉

For scotland to join the EU as an independent member they have to agree to accept the Euro. Pretty radical move if you ask me.

Can Scotland automatically claim membership, or is a vote needed from the current members?

independent nation states in the Eurozone

Are there such things anymore?

Its going really really well for small independent nation states in the Eurozone at the moment, isn't it?

Belgium and Holland are doing alright, Austria seems OK... Portugal and Ireland aren't...

For scotland to join the EU as an independent member they have to agree to accept the Euro. Pretty radical move if you ask me.

You sure about that?

There is a certain irony.

We want out of your union!!!!! You'ze can all **** right off
But why?
Because we want to join that one instead!!!!

Or are we going for the Arc of Prosperity thing again?

😆

Maybe this is all part of the EUs big plan to nibble away at the European states bit by bit by stiring regional descent.. next will be Cataloña.

The pathological nightmare of a socialist states of Europe will not be derailed.

There is a certain irony.

We want out of your union!!!!! You'ze can all **** right off
But why?
Because we want to join that one instead!!!!

Choice kinda cancels out the irony dontcha think ? 🙂

For scotland to join the EU as an independent member they have to agree to accept the Euro. Pretty radical move if you ask me.

For scotland to join the EU as an independent member they have to agree to accept the Euro. Pretty radical move if you ask me.

You sure about that?

It is a compulsory requirement for all new applicants.

But Scotland is already a member - didn't you know that?

The pathological nightmare of a socialist states of Europe will not be derailed.

You do realise there's a mix of right and left wing governments in Europe, right? Germans and Spanish - right. France, left. Etc.

Still, you're probably right about the Euro.

So that'll be true for England as well then?

If they want independence from the UK, all the best to 'em

Yes, I'm allowed to vote. I won't however, as I believe it is there choice to make.

You live here mate. That gives you more right to a vote than flag waving tax dodging morons like Connery.

I do feel that the economics arguments for and against should not be key in the debate. It's a question of self determination!

From a very rough straw poll of friends and work colleagues a wee while ago it was actually economics that was most important. And about 90% were in favour of staying in the Union.

Scotland won't vote to leave. When it comes to money we're not daft. Trust me, it won't happen.

On a more pressing note... If they do get independence, what are we going to do about flags? I can see the government commissioning a replacement for the Union Jack from a 'Perfect Curve' style 'brand consultancy' like the one that came up with Olympic logo

*shudders*

Will this be one of those euro votes where they keep having referendums till they get the answer they want?

Up North of the Wall this week, so I will test some "local opinion". But the idea of a vote for all on the issue is a non-starter. Why? Well it should be obvious.

Scots with any common sense will vote "no" despite all the time, Commonwealth Games Euphoria, Anniversary of B'burn etc (how many things can Salmon line up in one go!?!).

kennyp - Member
Scotland won't vote to leave. When it comes to money we're not daft. Trust me, it won't happen.

English and Welsh with any common sense would vote "yes". 😉

Imagine the chaos then. So, it will not happen. Enough chaos as it is...

Will this be one of those euro votes where they keep having referendums till they get the answer they want?

We already had a referendum. We voted for independence. But that didn't suit Westminster, so they retrospectively changed the rules to assume that everyone who didn't vote voted no.

Scotland as an independent nation is NOT in the EU.. and do you really think that an independent scotland will still be able to use sterling?

England as an independent nation wouldn't be in the EU either, either both in, or neither in. And who's going to stop us using Sterling? Anyone can use any currency they like...

We already had a referendum. We voted for independence

What??? When???

If you are talking about 1979 then that was nothing to do with independence.

And who's going to stop us using Sterling? Anyone can use any currency they like...

Yes, we'd still be able to use Sterling. Except as an "independent" country we'd have zero say in economic policy.

England as an independent nation wouldn't be in the EU either, either both in, or neither in.

Not true. We would be seceding from the rest of the UK. England would not be independent. It would still be joined politically with Wales and N Ireland.

And anyway, wanting so-called independence then immediately running off and asking to be ruled by Brussels isn't exactly the action of a proper independent state, is it?

Actually Ben, I think you may find that currency arrangements are not that simple. But lets accept that there are just for the sake of debate. So Alex "which way us the wind blowing now" Salmon has given up on the Euro (sensible) but replaced it with the pound (silly). I thought this was all about independence and the desire/ability to go it alone? So the latest SNP wheeze is to delegate monetary policy to another nation south of the border. Blimey after all this time, you would have thought that they would have worked basics like this out.

From a very rough straw poll of friends and work colleagues a wee while ago it was actually economics that was most important. And about 90% were in favour of staying in the Union.

Scotland won't vote to leave. When it comes to money we're not daft. Trust me, it won't happen.

From another similar straw poll of work and friends, pretty much the same result.

Most just seem pretty bored by the whole thing.

England as an independent nation wouldn't be in the EU either

What if England wants independence? would you support that and all that it means for the Welsh?

I know what you are getting at there, and yes I agree the English wanting out would be a bit of a nightmare. But apart from a few people bringing it up when there's a Scottish Independence debate going on I'm not aware of a significant English independence movement for it to be a question that needs answering.

Are there any political parties representing English independence? I suspect there must be a movement.

And in answer to your question, yes I would support it. Whether that viewpoint is wise is another matter entirely.

I know what you are getting at there,

I'm not aware of a significant English independence movement for it to be a question that needs answering.

And in answer to your question, yes I would support it. Whether that viewpoint is wise is another matter entirely.

that's not something that the scots are concerned about, as they're not concerned about English fortunes.

Don't listen to the tiny minority of anti-English idiots up here. Most Scots I know actually want England (and Wales and Ireland (all of it)) to do well. Yes we love playing you at rugby etc, but deep down there's no hatred or even dislike. I've got friends and family all over the UK. I hope all parts are prospering. I also firmly believe we're better off sticking together.

Kennyp, agree with every word of that.

And reflects my experiences perfectly

Northwind hereby challenges everyone who believes that Scotland is subsidised by the rest of the UK to prove it.

As for the economic argument- it's absolutely true that Scotland's economy would run in deficit. But what you don't hear so much about is that it is predicted to be a smaller deficit than England.

zokes - Member

Interesting analogy. So what happens if the rest of the UK wants Scotland to leave, but Scotland got cold feet?

England is just as welcome to secede from the UK as Scotland.

mogrim - Member

Can Scotland automatically claim membership, or is a vote needed from the current members?

Nobody actually seems to know. Lots of comments from within the UK but has anyone seen any response on this from the EU? The clesest we seem to have is the way it was handled with the breakup of the former soviet union but that's not really representative.

[quote=Northwind ]
Nobody actually seems to know. Lots of comments from within the UK but has anyone seen any response on this from the EU? The clesest we seem to have is the way it was handled with the breakup of the former soviet union but that's not really representative.
The latest from the EU is that it would be for Scotland and the rUK to decide upon the arrangement. The truth is that no one is really sure. Anyone coming out with a "definite" answer is either lying or deluded.

But what you don't hear so much about is that it is predicted to be a smaller deficit than England

Let them go ...

What's the point of feeding more people?

But if you have some money you can always buy up all the land there ... then put them to work ... 😆

+1 kennyp. There are idiots on both sides, but I have great banter with friends and family in the South East.
I am a bit concerned with 16 and 17 year olds voting in the referendum though.

[quote=athgray ]
I am a bit concerned with 16 and 17 year olds voting in the referendum though.
I'm a bit concerned that 16 and 17 year olds don't have the right to vote normally. If you can be taxed on your income you have a right to a say on how much and what happens to it.

No taxation without representation, seem to have heard that one before 😉

Actually that one is interesting though, because lots of people are saying "Do they really understand the issues", etc. As if you can't say the same about all voters of all ages.

wrecker - Member

I doubt that very much certainly in 50 years (tops) when the oil runs out

To be frank, anyone who thinks they can predict economic conditions in 50 years is obviously deranged. Turns out, we can't even predict them in 5 (ah let's be honest, it turns out we don't really know what's going on today)

The only economic approach that will work if Scotland becomes independent is a low-tax, small Govt one - and not to just replicate the State 'infrastructure' it currently has as a part of the UK.

And this isn't a right-wing small state, but one that protects the citizen while reducing/dismantling high-cost Depts; such as reducing the MOD to focus on defence rather than attack/occupation; stopping overseas aid; downgrading the NHS to one that is locally based and concentrates on care, not grandiose projects etc.

Oh, and as someone who lives in Scotland I can vote - although I'm not sure how they'll work out the tax situation and decide who is 'Scottish' vs who is a 'Visitor'?

[quote=b r ]
Oh, and as someone who lives in Scotland I can vote - although I'm not sure how they'll work out the tax situation and decide who is 'Scottish' vs who is a 'Visitor'?
It's not that complicated. It's just based on the Electoral Role - as it is for the Scottish Government elections. In this case, they'll need to do an update to include the folk who'll be 16/17 by October 2014.

[i]It's not that complicated. It's just based on the Electoral Role[/i]

I said 'tax'.

Basically anyone living here can vote, which kinda excludes overseas 'Scots'...

Druidh.
If the law reckons 16 year olds are not mature enough to spend their taxes on alcohol, cigarettes, tattoos, knives, gambling, certain films and computer games or driving a car, then perhaps they should not be voting in this issue?

Northwind - Member
Northwind hereby challenges everyone who believes that Scotland is subsidised by the rest of the UK to prove it.

www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06292.pdf -

A starting point NW!

As for the economic argument- it's absolutely true that Scotland's economy would run in deficit. But what you don't hear so much about is that it is predicted to be a smaller deficit than England.

Not quite true - but the deficit would be smaller than [b]some[/b] parts of England.

Probably shouldn't be able to join the army or get married, for that matter.

b r - Member
The only economic approach that will work if Scotland becomes independent is a low-tax, [b]small Govt one[/b] - and not to just replicate the State 'infrastructure' it currently has as a part of the UK.

The government employs 24% of the Scottish population, so that would represent quite a change to the status quo.

Will mr hammond have a new referendum on whether an independent Scotland will enter the EU if he wins this one ?

You think the Spanish are going to sit by and watch a region of a country declare independence on the basis of a referendum, then accede to them gaining EU membership?

I honestly don't normally mind what a 16 year old can and cannot legally do. I would exclude them simply because on the whole I reckon they will give Salmond the answer he wants to hear.

To be frank, anyone who thinks they can predict economic conditions in 50 years is obviously deranged. Turns out, we can't even predict them in 5 (ah let's be honest, it turns out we don't really know what's going on today)

[quote=Zulu-Eleven ]You think the Spanish are going to sit by and watch a region of a country declare independence on the basis of a referendum, then accede to them gaining EU membership?
They've already said that they would.

[quote=b r ]It's not that complicated. It's just based on the Electoral Role
I said 'tax'.
Oops. IIRC, everyone living in Scotland will be offered the option of a new Scottish Passport or to remain a citizen of the rUK. It's also very possible that some form of dual-nationality will apply (like NI/RoI).

THM- you're right, I slipped there, should have said Britain rather than England.

It's a very good link that, and does restate some interesting things- among them, that Scotland adds more value to the UK economy per capita than most of the UK (and the exceptions, London and the South East, are of course massively influenced by the centralisation of government)

Their analysis of the impact of north sea oil revenues is pretty fairminded and when taking the natural position (ie, Scotland's oil is primarily Scotland's) makes the case pretty well- lower defecit than the UK.

Wrecker- are you intentionally misunderstanding? The relative deficit argument is made based on today's figures, not those of 50 years from now.

Wrecker- are you intentionally misunderstanding? The relative defecit argument is made based on today's figures, not those of 50 years from now.

Wrecker- are you intentionally misunderstanding?

And you say this because...

<ooh, an edit. Manners? It's a simple question. Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I think your "misunderstanding" was tactical, but it's possible it was simply daft.

Maybe the USA could help Alex out they seem to like other countries with oil!!

Northwind - Member
THM- you're right, I slipped there, should have said Britain rather than England.

Not a bad piece that - no wonder other regions aren't lining up for an independence vote though!!!

I would like to see the maths in some of the calc's eg, I was surprised how little impact NS Oil made on a per capita basis - yes it makes sense, but still the impact in the case is still (for me!) a surprise.

I doubt the analysis uses by either side will be as balanced, eh?!? Oh blimey, two more years on this...

If Salmond gets his wish he will have to throw some massive sweetners towards Orkney and Shetland to prevent them walking away with all the North Sea oil revenues. They would have a very valid claim for independence themselves!

I'm going to step away before it gets a shit slinging contest but today's economic conditions are quite obviously not relevant to something taking place in 2 or 3 years time as pointed out earlier. We don't really even understand what's going on right now.

I see. So the argument is that we can't make any economic predictions at all?

athgray - Member

If Salmond gets his wish he will have to throw some massive sweetners towards Orkney and Shetland to prevent them walking away with all the North Sea oil revenues. They would have a very valid claim for independence themselves!

That's where it gets fun, eh! And if RBS get back on their feet, brace yourselves for the People's Republic of Gogarburn and South Gyle

You're the one who made the deranged comment so if anyone's being daft, frankly it's you.

Did I forget to write "in 50 years"? No? Well that's OK then.

To be frank, anyone who thinks they can predict economic conditions in 50 years is obviously deranged. Turns out, [b]we can't even predict them in 5 (ah let's be honest, it turns out we don't really know what's going on today)[/b]

Just in case you forgot what you wrote.
Goodnight.

Er. Yes. So as your quote correctly shows, my "deranged" comment was
about 50 years from now. Thanks?

Meanwhile, back in the conversation...

Northwind - Member

among them, that Scotland adds more value to the UK economy per capita than most of the UK (and the exceptions, London and the South East, are of course massively influenced by the centralisation of government)

You need to get your facts right on how wealths generated in the South east of England and in addition on which areas of the country have more than 50% of the workforce employed by the government.

Might come as a surprise to hear something like 30% of the total tax take in the UK comes from the City of London - evil bankers, hang-em burn-em etc....

Genuine question now - whats the economic case for independence being put forward by the SNP. I genuinely have no idea, presumably its based on retaining 90% of the North Sea Oil reserves? What have they got to say about the cessation of the funding for Scotland from the Barnett Formula and the £80 billion debt of Royal Bank of Scotland to the UK?

And I'd be interested in your view on retaining the pound? Personally I think that's a deeply flawed plan, independent nation states trying to use a single currency leads to fiscal chaos, as has happened twice in Europe previously.

druidh - Member
Zulu-Eleven » You think the Spanish are going to sit by and watch a region of a country declare independence on the basis of a referendum, then accede to them gaining EU membership?
They've already said that they would.

Hadn't read that, and given the way Catalonia's provoking the central government right now, I'd be surprised if it were current policy. Still, I could certainly be wrong.

Lets not forget the Greek view of accession to the EU for Scotland, as he bit of Macedonia still in Greece wants independence and they currently refuse to recognize the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (hence the silly name). Might set a dubious precedent they would have to follow.

Ah, perhaps I was unclear Gweilo- of course London doesn't depend on public spending for its income! I think most people are still basically in touch with the fact that the City is a huge cash cow (I'm the last person on here that can talk about evil bankers, I was one!)

However, having the seat of government in London is a financial bonus for the area. And this is a nice example of how following the money gets so complicated of course, since the cost of government is rightly considered a national cost, but tax paid by those workers is localised to where they live. (and of course, numbers of public sector workers aren't what counts here- earnings are)

This isn't a criticism though- the government has to be somewhere. But it's something that isn't always acknowledged.

You also have to acknowledge in this sort of argument that where tax is paid isn't always an indicator of where it is incurred- companies with their head offices in a particular place are often shown as being revenue for the city, but the incomes that they're paying tax on are national. (I won't even attempt to put numbers on this!)

I assume, for the "areas of the country that have more than 50% of people employed by the government" you must be slicing into some pretty thin areas? Would be interesting to see examples

England is just as welcome to secede from the UK as Scotland.

Good, so lets have the referendum on both sides of the border then.

Gweilo - Member

Genuine question now - whats the economic case for independence being put forward by the SNP. I genuinely have no idea, presumably its based on retaining 90% of the North Sea Oil reserves? What have they got to say about the cessation of the funding for Scotland from the Barnett Formula and the £80 billion debt of Royal Bank of Scotland to the UK?

And I'd be interested in your view on retaining the pound? Personally I think that's a deeply flawed plan, independent nation states trying to use a single currency leads to fiscal chaos, as has happened twice in Europe previously.

Ah now the SNP aren't going to trouble themselves with such trivial details 😉 (though, they do rightly point out that some matters will be the responsibility of the party in power after independance) Mostly it is party policy to waffle and bluster.

Yes, most arguments assume the 90% north sea oil split. Some still work with 100% but that seems unfashionable.

What do they need to say about the Barnett Formula? It'll be no more of course.

The currency situation... Well, it's just vagueness so far isn't it. Personally, the idea of retaining the pound stirling seems full of problems, but I don't have an informed opinion (and frankly there's a lack of nonpolitical expert discussion of this, or at least as far as I've seen). Key point to be resolved, otherwise we'll end up using returnable glass Irn Bru bottles.

The division of national debt seems more straightforward than most areas of controversy... A proportional split by population, leaving Scotland with about 80bn of former-UK debt (and rising). (and a proportional split of former-UK government owned assets such as RBOS, etc)

zokes - Member

Good, so lets have the referendum on both sides of the border then.

By all means you may have a referendum if you wish to leave the UK.

This is a bit like the West Lothian Question tbh. ie, a nonissue.

Just interrupting the debate to ask:

How can Scotland say "We're shagging off but we'd like to keep sterling"? Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who's currency it is? What's to stop the new UK of EW&NI saying "bugger off and join the euro then."

[quote=deadlydarcy ]Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who's currency it is?
Yes

By all means you may have a referendum if you wish to leave the UK.

This is a bit like the West Lothian Question tbh. ie, a nonissue.

There is a referendum going to happen about Scottish independence. Unless that's also a nonissue, why not make it like druidh's inaccurate analogy and actually have it so that both halves get to decide. Otherwise it just looks like you want to have your cake and eat it. Again.

[quote=zokes ]By all means you may have a referendum if you wish to leave the UK.
This is a bit like the West Lothian Question tbh. ie, a nonissue.
There is a referendum going to happen about Scottish independence. Unless that's also a nonissue, why not make it like druidh's inaccurate analogy and actually have it so that both halves get to decide. Otherwise it just looks like you want to have your cake and eat it. Again.
If you want a referendum on English secession, you only need to get enough folk to want it, for a political party to support it and put in in their manifesto, and for enough folk to vote for that party so that they win a general election.

In lieu of none of that happening, I can only suggest that maybe there just isn't enough interest in this south of the border.

Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who's currency it is?

Is England going to ban us from using the £ sign on our keyboards? That's all a currency is, really, a shared symbol.

Just asking the question out of interest, that was all.

zokes - Member

There is a referendum going to happen about Scottish independence.

Yes there is. And there can be a referendum about English independance. But there can't be a referendum to prevent Scottish independance (or, vice versa).

Druidh's analogy is sound in that you can decide to leave a marriage, or not, but you can't decide to keep one together if the other party wants to leave. It gets a bit wonky as there's 4 members of this marriage, so one can leave and the marriage will still exist.

deadlydarcy - Member

Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who's currency it is?

Yup... Frexample, Zimbabwe uses the USD, I think.

But in this case, I can't see that as a workable route, there's got to be consent and understanding I reckon.

As Northwind says, the currency question seems to be amongst the most vexatious.

Relying on the exchange rate and financial policies of a neighbouring country is not ideal (though some countries have successfully done this).

The future of the Euro is completely uncertain. Who knows, we may even say a two-rate Euro at some point.

Starting off a separate Scottish Currency is always a possibility. Many (new) countries have managed to do this - mostly with less in the way of natural resources than Scotland has, though few with the startup national debt either.

Another currency union is also a possibility. Perhaps with one or more of the Scandinavian countries?

The currency one is interesting - more so because Scotland has no legal tender anyway.

Mel Gibson yesterday hinted in a CNN interview that Hammond will be pushing for a Scottish Dollar.