[Closed] So? How did he do it?

tick

With frustration and an old sock?

u meAN darren brown?
did he do what?
thier r many un explained questions to ur question

you sound like you've had more chardony than me!

I'm more incline to belive he broke into lotto HQ than the wisdom of crowds.

Correct me if I'm wrong but that wisdom of crowds theory would only work for a predetermined number, not for something yet to be established. The average guess of a crowd will normally be more accurate than an individual's.

Here's how he did it (IMO)

Filmed with a few separate groups until one group predicted 3 or more numbers in one of the draws to give the illusion of this prediction system working. Probability suggests this would happen soon enough.

He then got this group to choose more numbers - which he conveniently didn't show to anyone until after the draw. The whole point of a prediction is that you show it before the event.

The film itself was clearly split screen filming. The moving camera effect was to throw you off the scent - either applied live, or was two shots filmed separately from the same sequence of movements. The shot is only still for about 2 seconds before he walks over to his numbers (once the draw has all been completed), which is when it stops being split screen, and reverts back to a single shot.

The numbers weren't predicted - they were simply placed there once the draw had been made. If he could really predict this, he would have shown his prediction ten minutes before the draw.

the wisdom of crowds works whe your guessing the weight of a cow/number of coffee beans in a jar etc, or any other correct answer, because your just taking a lot of guesses, of which an infinate number of guesses, should form a normal distribution, wth the average at its center.

There is no "correct answer" to what next weeks lottery result will be. Therefore you cant guess it. Therefore you cnt averge out a lot of answers to find the corect one.

And WTF was the snowflake about?

what a load of f*cking bolox!!

but we all knew that.

1 - Why didnt he show us HIS final calcs?

2 - Why didn't he show us the balls he put into the tube?

3 - The big one (as joeydeacon points out above) why all the shitty suspense on the live show, just put the predicted balls on full view on the stand before the lottery started

its the same as all the tits that watch that 'most haunted' sh*Te and believe it

Surely the average prediction of the numbers would tend towards the middle of the range- I would expect the group average prediction to give up numbers in the 20's or so. To pick the number '2' as the group average would be extremely unlikely.

Interesting the balls were just plain old ping pong balls and not the proper type of lottery balls with multiple numbers on. Also, when he turned the balls around the numbers were pointing slightly upwards and all the ink was above the perspex bar containing the balls. Could he have used a remote laser/etching device to 'paint' the balls from above as the numbers came out, or have I had too much beer?

What a waste of an hour.

It's gotta be either a magic trick or a camera trick.

There's no clear evidence of the split screen / freezing half the video, and the camera movement effect is very clever if it's applied afterwards, as you can see a bit of parallax (where things move in front of others as the camera moves). The camera movement is consistent with a handheld camera on some kind of little steadicam, or just under the arm.

Similarly, the magic trick is damned good if it is one. But then he could probably do 100 magic tricks that no-one except experienced magicians would be able to guess the method of, and is good enough that even magicians probably wouldn't see the moves he makes (particularly with the perfect angle of view that the single camera gives him).

Joe

there was defiantly a sock involved and some furious beating..it's the least the loon deserves.

That's because they didn't pick "2" Vinny. They didn't see their "prediction" until after the draw.

*places balls in a sock and beets sharki with it till it gets messy*

It's just a cheap magic trick, even cheaper as it only had to be done on TV and not in front of an audience. Just because it's the lottery numbers doesn't mean anything as he said himself they would already have to be drawn before he could reveal his 'guess'

That's waht I was trying to say joedeacon, rather ineptly it seems. 🙂

I think some people might have missed the point .......[i]it's supposed to be[/i] a trick. Presumably that is why he will reveal how he did it. And no, I don't expect him to say simply that it was magic.

It's entertainment. And I can't see why anyone above 8 years of age might take it seriously enough to call it 'bollox' or 'sh1te'

If it was one of my socks it would certainly get messy..

Calm down dears its just entertainment! 😉

wondered when your type would appear... 😉

It's entertainment. And I can't see why anyone above 8 years of age might take it seriously enough to call it 'bollox' or 'sh1te'

indeed, i am well aware it is entertainment for the masses, but it cracks me up a tosser is making loads of cash taking the piss 😉

I thought you meant Lance Armstrong wining all those tours and not getting caught doping.

He was never going to reveal how he did it because in doing so he would be revealing how he does other tricks. The most amusing thing is that group of 24 who seem to actually believe they did it.

And did anyone note the "accidental slip" in his alternative explanation when he referred to she when describing the insider at the lottery. So were we meant to take that in at a subliminal level and thus believe he had given away more than he meant to.

why hasnt the channel 4 derren borwn site posted my rant?? mmmmmmmm

i think the only way he can br proven is if he guesses and reveals before the draw.

have to give him credit, he's making money out of it and i admit i was suckered in to watch it.

his jokes thoughout the show especially at the start were cringe worthy though. i bet he was bullied in school

If not he deserves bullying now.

Anyway...how did he do what, i've not turned the TV on in weeks, what goe's on in the world?

and i admit i was suckered in to watch it.

Weren't you just 😀

I have to admit that I didn't watch it, and I'm surprisingly uninterested in how he did it. But you keep ranting to channel 4 anyway waihiboy 😉

if it was the "wisdom of crowds" there will be 24 winners tomorrow night. Otherwise I reckon he put some dodgy balls in Guinevere.

I think some people might have missed the point .......it's supposed to be a trick. Presumably that is why he will reveal how he did it. And no, I don't expect him to say simply that it was magic.

The thing is, IMHO he's now gone rather beyond performing tricks into the realms of deception and fraud. Do you think there won't be groups of people now wasting their time and money trying to beat the lottery?

if it was the "wisdom of crowds" there will be 24 winners tomorrow night.

I'm just waiting for those 24 people who 'guessed' the numbers to get together and try and do it again and loose lots of money!

Do you think there won't be groups of people now wasting their time and money trying to beat the lottery?

Isn't that the whole idea of the lottery ? To believe that despite all the evidence to suggest the contrary, you really might win.

To believe that despite all the evidence to suggest the contrary, you really might win.

No that's not different. Presumably everyone who bought a ticket previously, thought that it was 'possible to win'.

The Lottery exploits people's irrational beliefs. If that is in anyway unacceptable, then perhaps the Lottery itself should be banned.

If it wasn't BS he should have bought a ticket with the correct numbers on. Could always have burn't it after he was proven correct so he wasn't misusing his 'magc'

No that's not different.

Yes the lottery might be based on irrational beliefs, but they didn't have people with an air of authority telling them their irrational beliefs were rational before.

If it wasn't BS

the most amazing thing is he got loads of people who dont like him, or actively hate him, or think he's some kind of criminal to watch his show- and then come on here and slag him off/ bite their computer screen with anger/ email CH4/ Daily mail etc!!!
ITS ON THE TELLY!
FFS if you dont find the guy entertaining dont watch (surely you knew what to expect?)
I dont like the soaps and big brother so I dont watch them!

Of course it was real!
The simple (and true) solution is that baby Jesus whispered the correct answers to them.

no one does magic, it's all illusions.

they didn't have people with an air of authority telling them their irrational beliefs were rational before.

Well if they listen to the 'authority' of mathematicians they will be fully aware the Darren Brown is talking nonsense.

And to get back to your original question : "Do you think there won't be groups of people now wasting their time and money trying to beat the lottery?" No I don't ..... well not more than before anyway.

I will be very surprised if as a result of Darren Browns show, there is any increase in Lottery ticket sales. Apart of course, for the temporary increase which is always the result of advertising. And the National Lottery has certainly received plenty of free publicity in the last few days.

he got loads of people who dont like him, or actively hate him, or think he's some kind of criminal to watch his show- and then come on here and slag him off/ bite their computer screen with anger/ email CH4/ Daily mail etc

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Well if they listen to the 'authority' of mathematicians they will be fully aware the Darren Brown is talking nonsense.

"Do you think there won't be groups of people now wasting their time and money trying to beat the lottery?" No I don't ..... well not more than before anyway.

Maybe you have more faith in the intelligence of people than I do. Though the question is, would Derren have broadcast that programme if he didn't expect to fool lots of people?

I have always thought that it is one of the amusing peculiarities of STW, that a fair few punters on here appear to be under the impression they are highly intelligent individuals living in a world where they are sadly and tragically, surrounded by people of a much lower intelligence. So in answer to your question yes, I probably have much more faith in the intelligence of people than you do.

As far as whether Darren Brown would have broadcast the programme if he didn't expect to fool lots of people, I suspect that Darren Brown's motivating consideration was to provide an entertaining show. I see no evidence to suggest that Darren Brown is some sort of idiot who wouldn't have being fully aware that his absurd claims would be vigorously ridiculed by statisticians and mathematicians.

I'm sure that his primary concern was to provide a TV show with high viewing figures. And judging by his apparent capture of STW's in-house intelligentsia within his audience, I suspect he has been highly successful in that goal.

Whether his entertaining show has a lasting affect on Lottery sales, should be fairly easy to establish. Although as I have previously mentioned, the free and extensive publicity/advertising he has provided the National Lottery is very likely to result in a short term increase in sales - why even I, might try my luck and buy a Lottery ticket next week 8)

Otherwise I reckon he put some dodgy balls in Guinevere.

i can't believe you all let that go unremarked....

Always start with the facts.
He didn't predict the lottery. He told you he would predict the lottery and after the lottery had been drawn he showed you some balls with the same numbers on them. And note that the 24 stooges weren't allowed to know what numbers they had predicted.
However he may actually have done it I think you could have rigged up an ink jet (or something similar - it could be done with a photographic transfer) in the craddle that held the balls and simply printed the numbers on as they came in. That sort of technology has been around for years.
But always go back to the facts.
He didn't predict the numbers until after we all knew them. So at the point he told you them he knew them from the BBC broadcast same as the rest of us. That's not that hard - I guess we could all do that (excepting that I don't watch the lottery so I might struggle)
So the question becomes how did he arrange for the balls to have the numbers on that we all knew anyway?
It could have been that they were prepared before hand ie predicted. Or it could have been that the numbers were added to the balls after the draw.
Give me a decent budget and some decent technicians and craftsmen and I think I could do what we saw - whether he achieved it the same way I do not know.

Why all the DB hate on here? He's worked long and hard at what he does and he does it well. If you take if for what it is, it's very entertaining. If you're worried about stupid people getting sucked in, you'd best find those stupid people and help them tie their shoe laces, cross the road and put corks on the ends of their forks etc.

Do I think he could manipulate me? I'd love to think I could resist what he does but in reality, I probably couldn't.

LOL, this guy explains it in laymans terms... 😉

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Why all the DB hate on here?

Well, I was a bit dissapointed with the show, but looking forward to next week to see if he can make me stick to my sofa (usually easily done with beer and munchibles!)

I am looking forward to the remote viewing episode and having been an on-line casino manager, will be interesting to see what "systems" he comes up with to beat a casino.

he's insulting our intelligence

How is he doing that aracer ?

By forcing you to watch programmes/shows which you consider to be rubbish ? 💡

It wasn't until after I watched the friday show that I realised that he told everyone how it would be done before he did it: He said at the very start of the show that there were [u]two[/u] cameras in the room. We only seem to see the illusion through one camera. But he said there are two.

We (the TV viewers) weren't the ones participating in the illusion, the wednesday show was just a regular bit of tv trickery, nothing special about it, you get far more convincing TV illusions in an episode of Gordon Ramsey's Kitchen Nightmares - convincing in the sense that nobody would even perceive of them as illusions.

It was the 24 people who were wholey convinced that they predicted the lottery numbers who were the ones that were experiencing an illusion, not the TV viewers. The lottery results going out on live TV were part of the illusion being presented to them.

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i've been party to the tricks of several top magicians and have signed non disclosure agreements.

suffice to say that once you've seen one or two little pre show details the whole thing becomes blindingly obvious and that's live. it's even easier done on TV. doesn't make it any less fun to see though.

Just a point about the phoney "average of 24 people's guesses" system:

How would 24 people pick 1 or 49 as an average?

If 24 people picked 1 then the average would be 1.
If 24 people picked 49 then the average would be 49.

I hope that clears it up for you Graham. 🙂

In other words, the average of 24 people randomly choosing between 1 to 49 tends to be, rather unsurprisingly, centred around 25 and gets less and less likely as it gets further from that.

That must be the "deep maths" bit 🙄

I lost interest at the 'mouse in the box' stage. If he gave me the numbers in a sealed envelope two days before the draw & they were right, I might think he was good.