[Closed] SNP & Brexit????

Scotland’s future in the bloc of 28 states was endorsed at the weekend by German economy minister Sigmar Gabriel, who is close to Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Gabriel told a German newspaper that the EU would certainly accept Scotland as a member in its own right after leaving the UK

In an interview during the summer Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s chief Brexit negotiator, said there should be no obstacles to an independent Scotland being part of the EU, saying it would be “suicide” for the EU to refuse entry to people who are sympathetic to the EU’s aims.

And plenty of others.

It would not be without difficulty. However plenty of non scots eu law experts have said there is no barrier. Plenty of senior and important EU politicians and officials have said its possible

I'll see your nobodies and raise you the European Commission President :

"Although there is no certainty, it appears an independent Scotland would not automatically become a member of the EU but would instead have to re-apply and complete a process of accession... A new independent state would, by the fact of its independence, become a third country with respect to the EU and the Treaties would no longer apply on its territory."

This really is old ground.

A couple more then I'll leave this to the illinformed english right wingers who having cut their noses off to spite their face want to cut our noses off as well.

Weber, a close ally of German chancellor Angela Merkel, told the Financial Times, in relation to Scotland, that “Those who want to stay are welcome in the European Union.”

Weber chair the EPP group, the biggest and most influential bloc in the European parliament.

Gunther Krichbaum, chair of Germany’s European affairs committee

Krichbaum, also an ally of Chancellor Merkel, said he expected an independent Scotland to become a member of the EU smoothly.

He told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper (also picked up by Reuters): “The EU will still consist of 28 member states, as I expect a new independence referendum in Scotland, which will then be successful.”

“We should respond quickly to an application for admission from the EU-friendly country,” he added.

Gunther Krichbaum, chair of Germany’s European affairs committee

Krichbaum, also an ally of Chancellor Merkel, said he expected an independent Scotland to become a member of the EU smoothly.

He told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper (also picked up by Reuters): “The EU will still consist of 28 member states, as I expect a new independence referendum in Scotland, which will then be successful.”

“We should respond quickly to an application for admission from the EU-friendly country,” he added.

Micheál Martin has said.

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The Fianna Fáil leader believes that while the future of Scotland within the UK is a matter for themselves, Ireland should support them in a bid to re-enter the EU if the situation arises.

“I and my party believe that it would be unacceptable for Scotland to be treated as a normal candidate country should it seek to remain as a member of the EU.

“It currently implements all EU laws. It manifestly would not need to be reviewed for its standards of governance and ability to implement EU laws.

“It has a strong administration, a distinct legal system and an absolute commitment to European ideals,” Mr Martin told an emergency Dáil debate on the outcome of the EU referendum.

“Scotland is strong enough to advocate for itself, but Ireland should be its friend and demand fair play should it seek to remain in the EU.

Vice-president of the EPP, Poland’s Jacek Saryusz-WolskiVerified, said Scotland is “welcome in EU”,

This really is old ground.

But like an election result, something to be trodden underfoot in pursuit of the will of the minority.

Pah, details.....

Nobodies? The EUs chief negotiator on Uk exit, Chair of the biggest group in the european parliament?

Whats the date on that quote sBob - you see uk leaving the EU changes the game.

This really is old ground.

Indeed 2012 to be clear and it was an answer in relation to when scotland was leaving the UK and then wanting to enter the EU afterwards. Given that its not really relevant to the current scenario as, in this case, the option of being the successor state is clearly on the table.

Facts here is anyone cares
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36619907

Steve Peers, professor of law at the University of Essex says: "It's now much more plausible that other member states would agree to amend the Treaties to transfer the UK's membership of the UK to Scotland."
.....
Prof Peers also writes: "The political context of the issue would now be different: unlike in 2014, facilitating Scottish EU membership would not be now seen as creating a kind of incentive for a member state to split up, given that the UK is leaving the EU anyway."

I wonder why all those former Iron Curtain countries were able to access EU membership so quickly? Yet our rabid colonial masters seem to believe that Scotland will not get the same consideration.

The only real problem we will face is the spite and obstruction from the right wing English Establishment, and as England will no longer be an EU member, I can't see that being a major problem.

Just as England can thrive outside the EU, so can Scotland thrive outside the UK.

how about the welsh and the N Irish? the real forgotten....

the reality is we cannot be certain what the outcome will be*
We can be certain that the scenario is considerably different from if IUS leaves the UK and they remain in the EU

Citing quotes form their as proof of now is unwise.

* IMHO the EU is by nature expansionist and will be happy to keep a member
It will be even more happy to do it when it surrounds the rUK with the EU and it can extract that as price for the UK leaving and use it in negotiations.

That said though none of us can know for certain

you see uk leaving the EU changes the game.

No it doesn't.
The laws remain the same.
That pre-Brexit vote quote was precisely in the context of Brexit.

The only way Scotland could [u]gain[/u], note; not continue EU membership is to change current EU law.
It would only take one member state to prevent this.

Oh look!
Here comes one now!

Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said:
"I am extremely against it, the treaties are extremely against it and I believe everyone is extremely against it. If the United Kingdom leaves... Scotland leaves,"

pah, details....

So some EU experts and EU people say its possible, and some say it's not. The only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from this is that nobody knows for sure and neither outcome can be definitively ruled out.

I'm in favour of remaining in Europe, but if leaving Europe makes no sense, Scotland leaving the UK makes less.

Scotland makes £11.6Bn exports to EU and £48.5Bn to rest of UK annually. Which would you keep?

Before you say:
"But an independent Scotland would still be able to export to the rest of the UK".
Remind yourself that your economic argument rests on the "fact" that leaving Europe will cut us off from trading with them.

If leaving Europe will cut off trade with EU and lead to hard borders, why would cutting off rest of UK lead to anything less?

So pick a consistent attitude and try to hold on to it.

In summary .. Every time someone says
"If we leave EU we must become independent for economic reasons"
They are either a liar or a fool.

[quote=thegreatape ]So some EU experts and EU people say its possible, and some say it's not. The only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from this is that nobody knows for sure and neither outcome can be definitively ruled out.

I think its more of case of the spanish really dont want it["independent states within a state" joining the EU] due to the Basque separatists so they may be politically motivated by domestic politics rather than experts on this issue/treaty.
That said clearly we cannot be certain what will happen.

Spot on Junkyard. When it was Scotland leaving the Uk and joining the EU that would set precedent for Catalonia hence the spanish objection. Now its England leaving the EU and scotland remaining in then this does not set that precedent.

The UK euro referendum changes the whole landscape on this

Yes no one can be sure but 4 things are clear
1) Major voices in the EU have said there would be no issue with scotland becoming the successor state
2)there is no legal or constitutional problem with this
3) the spanish objection no longer applies
4) its in the EUs interests for Scotland to become the successor state and to remain in the EU

Now its England...

So the poor old Welsh still don't count? Dont worry Flashy, AA and Co, your English friends have not forgotten you.

Na, they don't count, don't even have their own cricket team.... 😆

😀

Scotland to become the successor state

So if England and Wales leave, Scotland ends up with all the debt, right?

It's your pound, remember?

tjagain - Member

Now it's England leaving the EU and Scotland remaining in

Scotland can't remain an EU member; it isn't one. 🙂

Ninfan - nice point. Only if we get ALL the asset as well.

Do you really think that the eu wouldn't welcome Scotland with open arms just to piss off mr Farage and co?

Sbob. do they have their own passport in Scotland or do they use a European one?

Careful ninfan, its gets v complicated knowing which side of the balance sheet currency sits on.

Yes no one can be sure but 4 things are clear
1) Major voices in the EU have said there would be no issue with scotland becoming the successor state
2)there is no legal or constitutional problem with this
3) the spanish objection no longer applies
4) its in the EUs interests for Scotland to become the successor state and to remain in the EU

1. nope, major voices have said that they would be friendly to scotland joining the EU under an expedited process but this is not the same as being a successor state
2. probably not but there are some major political ones.
3. yes it does as the core principle remains and any independance referendum that results in EU memebership will embolden catelonia
4. possibly but you have provided no evidence to support that assertion. Scotlands likely deficit would be a fairly large impediment

zippykona - Member

Do you really think that the eu wouldn't welcome Scotland with open arms just to piss off mr Farage and co?

I am absolutely sure that the EU would welcome the new independent state of Scotland to apply for EU membership, with open arms.

William - actually they have said scotland could be considered a successor state or have continuity of membership

The Spanish objection was based around Scotland setting a precedent for catalonia. Post the euro referendum this no longer applies as it would not be a country splitting and both parts being in the EU but instead a part of a country leaving and the other part simply being the successor state. IN the circumstances that now apply its not a unanimous vote needed anyway - just majority ( probably)

If you are interested I could point you to a lot of work folk have done around the EU laws and constitution on this

Scotland has most of the EUs oil and half of its fishing. To say nothing of the fact scotland would still be paying in to the EU budget.

Of course there are problems with it but actually reading what these EU bods say its clear that they will find a way to do what they want. Its an unprecedented issue tho so hard to be certain

But Will, its almost worth it just to see wee nippy implement the required austerity policies to qualify while the Tories continue their expansionary fiscal policy south of the border!!

I am absolutely sure that the EU would welcome the new independent state of Scotland to apply for EU membership, with open arms.

😀

teamhurtmore - Member

So the poor old Welsh still don't count? Dont worry Flashy, AA and Co, your English friends have not forgotten you.

Woah there!!!
Are you replying to [i]tj[/i]?

I'll have to report you to teacher for that!
He wants nought to do with you, don't you know?
I know this as he mentions it at every available opportunity. 😆

Was I? Dammit, I was concentrating on the point actually. Poor old Welsh (and N Irish) being forgotten all the time - and some say that the English are myopic!!

Have to say though as a "fact geek", it does get tiring correcting all the factual errors though doesn't it!

tjagain - Member

the Spanish objection no longer applies

Which part of "If the United Kingdom leaves... Scotland leaves" are you having trouble understanding?

Is it the bit you don't like the sound of?

teamhurtmore - Member

Was I? Dammit, I was concentrating on the point actually. Poor old Welsh (and N Irish) being forgotten all the time - and some say that the English are myopic!!

It's good to have confirmation that this was never a Scottish vs English thing though.

why else would he [s]troll[/s] erm sorry reply to someone he knows cannot see his posts ?

of course he wants to goad him as that is what THM does

At least TJ Is refraining from acting in the same way. Me a lot less so but lets see what happens with THM
SPKLWCTHI

tjagain, but none of your quotes actually say that do they? I have no doubt Scotland would face an expedited application process but being considered a successor state is a whole different ballgame. even an expedited process would result in Scotland facing some hard questions with regard to currency and budget deficits.

Thanks for the offer but I’ve been condescended to by better than you

Which part of "If the United Kingdom leaves... Scotland leaves" are you having trouble understanding?

you can use the one quote you can find and ignore all the others you dont like as you see fit but its a bit rich to accuse someone else of not liking some quotes.

I have no doubt Scotland would face an expedited application process

We just dont know what will happen but if the EU want them to join they can and it is not unreasonable to see something as a successor state to the already in place treaty.
Clearly some may object but that alone does not mean it wont happen we just dont know

It's good to have confirmation that this was never a Scottish vs English thing though.

Indeed. 😀

How will it go when you have a Scotland v Frankfurt thing though? Its not fair, they dont allow us to do what we want, have interest rates that suit us etc....Its our Euro, but they can keep their debts....we're oot

sorry - william - not meant to be condescending its just many of the commentators on here are not interesting in finding stuff out just in scoring debating points / goading / trolling folk

Yours was a good post with good points hence I answered and offered to give you more sources if you wanted them

Lost nuance in text discussions.

Being the successor state makes remaining in much easier - its the easier path for all to take. Currency as ever remains a huge issue you are right. We could do a Sweden and say we will take the euro but just keep on putting it off for ever. We could still use the pound but even without Westminster putting barriers in the way thats far from perfect or we could have a scottish pooond. My preference would be to take tre Euro but selling that to the public would be very hard

Non are particularly good options and this remains IMO the biggest issue

sBob - As junkyard says and also thats from when the circumstances are different.

Junkyard - lazarus

the fact that there are other views and this source has an internal reason to state this that is not repeated by other EU leaders. His opinion is not a fact neither is yours mine or TJ's.

you can use the one quote you can find and ignore all the others you don't like as you see fit but its a bit rich to accuse someone else of not liking some quotes.

For Scotland to become a member state would take the agreement of all 27 existing member states.
It would only take one to object, that's the point. I'm not ignoring other opinions on the subject but an infinite number of voices will still be shouted down by the one with the veto.

The biggest barrier of course is actually getting a majority for independence in a referendum. There has not been the movement in the polls many of us thought would happen

tjagain - Member

sBob - As junkyard says and also that's from when the circumstances were different.

"If the United Kingdom leaves"
How are our circumstances different from this viewpoint?

tjagain - Member

My preference would be to take the Euro

Reported for trolling.

teamhurtmore - Member
...Poor old Welsh (and N Irish) being forgotten all the time - and some say that the English are myopic!!...

It's not for the Scots to tell the Welsh or NI how to run their affairs, that'd be as obnoxious as having English Establishment nobs telling Scots how to run theirs.

Oh, wait... 🙂

tjagain, I concede that there comes a point where a special application process looks for all the world like Scotland becoming a successor state (Scotland applies and joins the EU on the same date the UK leaves) but there would be crucial differences as a successor state would, normally, be expected to take on all the responsibilities of the outgoing state. Its very unlikely that the EU would allow Scotland to enjoy the same vetoes and perks that the UK currently enjoys.

There is also the issue of timing. If HMG wins the Supreme Court decision and the PM triggers A50 straight away (unlikely I know) Do the Scottish government have enough time to broker a deal and then hold a referendum? do the Scottish electorate have sufficient time to come to an informed decision as to what to do next? I'm not convinced.

For Scotland to become a member state would take the agreement of all 27 existing member states.

I'm not ignoring other opinions on the subject but an infinite number of voices will still be shouted down by the one with the veto.