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You do realise that a Tory government agreed to hold a referendum on brexit in an attempt to bury the issue once and for all, don’t you?
Went well, didn't it?
The Tory Party of David Cameron did that though. That party doesn't exist any more. It died in 2016. Its been replaced by UKIP
When you say always do you have one example of him saying that?
Sorry Ernie. I stand corrected. Though its a quote thats often attributed to him, it wasn't Dacre, It was the Mails owner Lord Northcliffe who said it. Paul Dacre certainly embraced it though. Like Matt Hancock embracing an arse in a stationary cupboard
Apologies for the Polly Toynbee quote. Here you go...
"Asked for the winning formula of his Daily Mail, Lord Northcliffe replied: 'I give my readers a daily hate.' No one has kept that flame burning more brightly than Paul Dacre, poisoner of the national psyche, bully-in-chief, whose iron whim has terrified prime ministers for a quarter of a century… Like all bullies he targets underdogs, imposing on the country racism, homophobia and philistinism, and shunning complexity and evidence."
And can you provide examples of the government’s mission to ferment hate crime?
Provide Examples? Have you been living in a cave for the last five years?
There does seem to be a very real appetite for something closely resembling fascism in this country at the moment though.
You've got this entirely the wrong way round. There's a very real appetite within the country for challenging the elitist neo-liberal consensus that has seen wages fall, secure jobs disappear, and pensions wiped out while billionaires treat the world as their own personal playground and pay no tax in the process. If the left don't offer an opportunity to challenge this transparently corrupt system, then people will turn to populists on the right who pretend to. There's no more appetite for fascism than there is for communism, all people want is politicians who listen to them and act in their interests, and bizarrrely Boris falls into that category while Keir Starmer doesn't.
Have you ever met any actual people, mate?
Lots of them are absolutely horrible bundles of barely contained hate.
They're vile.
They definitely want fascism. The sooner, the better.
And when they get it, they're going to be stringing all the vegan, cycling anarchists up 😉
See my earlier comment. A lot of people who have stopped voting labour have moved to other parties or are just not voting. Those who voted tory did so purely on the single issue of brexit.
See my earlier comment. Look at 2019 voter turnout and it is same as 2017.
And didn't you say yesterday that the drop in Labour votes was because of antisemitism and infighting but now it is purely on the single issue of Brexit.
all people want is politicians who listen to them and act in their interests, and bizarrrely Boris falls into that category
So Boris is what they want, why should they want what you are offering just because you like it?
So when you say "Paul Dacre always said" what you meant to say was that you once read Polly whatshername, quote someone else, say something, but without providing the full context.
"I give my readers a daily hate" could be a fair description of your posts on here binners. Or maybe even Guardian editorials.
It depends what is meant by hate. Did he mean hatred against black people or gay people? Or against Labour taxation policies, for example?
Of course by reducing what he said to seven words Polly thingy can use it to mean whatever she wants it to mean.
Anyway what is the connection with the present government policy, I haven't been living in a cave the last 5 years, where are the examples of the daily hate they churn out? Anti-gay? Anti-muslim? Should be easy to find.
It is certainly easy to find among the governments of some EU member states.
Went well, didn’t it?
So you admit that the referendum wasn't a ploy by the government to launch some weird war as you claimed. Jolly good.
So you admit that the referendum wasn’t a ploy by the government to launch some weird war as you claimed. Jolly good.
I never claimed that anyway. The referendum was called by Dave to try and head off Farage and UKIP in case they split the blue-rinse racist vote and let a labour government in.
I'm aware that he never even countenanced for a second the idea that he might possibly lose it. Do you not know who he is? He's frightfully important and he always gets what he wants. How could he lose?
The culture war was a happy accident for the arch-opportunist that is Boris Johnson. Once he saw the well of resentment and hatred of 'the other' that he'd successfully tapped into, he just couldn't help himself and he's been whipping it up as and when it suits him ever since. It got him in number 10 after all. And that is literally the only thing that matters.
Apparently people like statues of the right sort of people, but not the wrong sort of actual living, breathing people who they're happy to see drown in the channel
As for examples of this government, the Brexiteers and the Right Wing press fermenting hate, start with the murder of Jo Cox and work forward from there....
Look at his lovely, cuddly welcoming face, bless him...
He'd definitely be up for a bit of fascism
fermenting hatred? brewdog?
Which kind of leaves you a bit screwed as an essentially liberal party, when it’s liberalism itself which is being scapegoated as the cause of all this countries problems
No, because Liberalism is not one thing. Or one ideology.
I think you'll find 'liberalism' is using hardworking, patriotic taxpayers money to give free houses and massive tellies to bloody refugees who rock up her from bloody bongo-bongo-land to have free operations on the NHS and live the life of bloody Riley off the bloody state while simultaneously stealing all our bloody jobs
Gaz was telling me all about it last night, down the pub. Putting them all up in five star bloody hotels they are! While they build 'em all new houses. And who's paying for it all? Muggins here, that's who!
Gaz was telling me all about it last night, down the pub.
I thought you didn't frequent that pub any more. There's more than one racist pub in Rammy?
Well I'm certainly stunned that binners appears to be back drinking in the Rose and Crown.
So what did you tell Gaz?
Btw what makes all these racists and bigots think that you are a good listener binners?
I have sympathetic eyes
Your eyes appear sympathetic to racists and bigots? Ah that explains that explains their apparent irresistible urge to share their many thoughts with you.
I bet you are a big ol' 'hug-a-ukipper' softy when you had a couple of pints binners. The tough talking stuff is reserved for "lefties" on stw.
Thats not me being defeatest. Thats me being a realist
In the uncomfortable position of agreeing with Binners on this.
It really doesn't matter who the Labour leader is because they face the same issue.
How do you push against a media that's dominated by a right-wing agenda?
And one that's increasingly targeted and nuanced.
The option for a Labour leader is to do a Blair - court the media and stick to Tory-lite policies.
Or do a Corbyn - focus on safe stuff like trains - keep your head down and see how long you can absorb the punches.
Both strategies produce the same result - nothing much changes.
Burnham, Starmer, Lewis. It doesn't matter who it is, the problem is the same.
It's not just about the media either, sadly it's much easier to play on peoples' worst instincts like fear, jealousy etc because these are hard-wired survival traits that were handy 10,000 years ago or whatever.
With social media and all the the data available now, as well as the lack of oversight or scruples the level of manipulation possible is unprecedented.
The option for a Labour leader is to do a Blair – court the media and stick to Tory-lite policies.
That isn't an option. This is 2021 not 1997, political reality and truths have changed dramatically in 24 years.
The Blair formula will no longer work, however simple and appealing it might appear.
it’s much easier to play on peoples’ worst instincts like fear, jealousy etc because these are hard-wired survival traits that were handy 10,000 years ago or whatever.
With social media and all the the data available now, as well as the lack of oversight or scruples the level of manipulation possible is unprecedented.
I think that pretty much sums up why the tories are still polling well, desite all the lies and corruption. They Know it, and they don't care, they are just playing the numbers.
How do you push against a media that’s dominated by a right-wing agenda?
You come up with something progressive and defend the hell out of it.
Ffs Ernie do you just come here to be a ****? Even when you seem to be in agreement you have to be right, get a bloody grip.
Where are the photos of Kier Starmer draped in a flag, wearing an England shirt cheering the there lions on?. Either jumping on the sofa in excitement whilst watching it on telly or covered in beer at an official fan zone?
Starmer's a genuine fan (he attended two of the Wembley matches in 1996). His advisors advise him to show more patriotism, Boris backs anyone but England and Sir Kier misses an open goal.
Meanwhile, at the Daily Mail the win is put down to the presence of a bored out of his mind lkttle Prince George, 'our lucky mascot' they cheer. Nothing to do with Raheem Sterling of course.
Ffs Ernie do you just come here to be a ****? Even when you seem to be in agreement you have to be right, get a bloody grip.
In agreement with what? I thought I was making the point that I'm not in agreement, ie I don't think the Blair 1997 election strategy would work today.
Why is me disagreeing a problem for you squirrel, you want this to be an echo chamber where everyone agrees with everyone else? It would make a very boring and pointless thread. Although to be fair I do enjoy reading the brexit thread.
And yes of course I think I'm right, why would I post stuff I thought was wrong?
Maybe don't get so offended with someone for having a different point of view?
It's your attitude and the fact you evidently think you're so smart that annoys me, I couldn't give a toss what your opinions are.
https://twitter.com/PositiveMoneyUK/status/1409898813599408131?s=19
For example. Talking like this and acting like this is economically illiterate, and certainly doesn't give us much to get excited about.
It's not her fault. It is endemic in the Labour party because they are terrified of being labelled spenders.
They've got to get out of this mindset and start learning how the economy works.
Imagine what we could do as a society if we got on board here.
They’ve got to get out of this mindset and start learning how the economy works.
Trouble is the electorate don’t.
Keir Starmer the Invisible ……
Not much else to say about him,
Bring back Jezza …. At least he got headlines ( for whatever reason ) and you knew he was around
the fact you evidently think you’re so smart that annoys me
Maybe it's you that needs to get a grip squirrel.
IIRC a few days ago you, ironically, laughed at me for suggesting that Thatcher was much more right-wing than Boris Johnson.
You don't have to be smart to know that on both the economy and social issues Johnson is significantly to the left of Thatcher, you just need to know it.
I do appreciate that it might piss some people off when that is pointed out, as for them Johnson is the current hate figure which means that he is worse than any UK political which has ever existed. And I'm just an annoying **** for suggesting anything different.
The people who think they are so smart are those who arrogantly dismiss the British public as thick and stupid. I have lost count how many times I seen on here people commenting how half the population is below average intelligence.
Whatever the UK political issue the general consensus on here is always that people are thick and stupid. Apparently that explains everything.
And the lower down the social class the more thick and stupid they are, so that the greatest contempt is reserved for working-class people like myself.
I don't need lessons on arrogance from stw.
I don’t need lessons on arrogance from stw.
Oh but you'll get it whether you like it or not.
The Champagne socialists on here could teach the right wing a thing or two about intolerance.
Especially for the majority masses that they see as too stupid to be allowed to think.
Apparently people like statues of the right sort of people, but not the wrong sort of actual living, breathing people who they’re happy to see drown in the channel
Eh voilà
And the lower down the social class the more thick and stupid they are
Given that we live in the opposite of a meritocracy I find the opposite of that is usually the case.
Just look at the present cabinet. The most privileged backgrounds imaginable and the most expensive education money can buy and just look at them
Thick as mince
I don’t really see how the English private education system could possibly survive purely in the strength of the learning provided, as opposed to who slammed your Dick in drawer, beat you in a game of soggy biscuit then asked you 8 years later if you fancied a job in a think tank.
I have lost count how many times I seen on here people commenting how half the population is below average intelligence.
Yep, that's right; the other half are above average intelligence.
and just look at them
Yeah they're laughing at you whilst filling their pockets.
rone
Free MemberThey’ve got to get out of this mindset and start learning how the economy works.
It's not so much that, it's the lasting, incompetent politicking. When Labour left government, they were absolutely running scared on the financial questions, they capitulated completely and just decided to try and fight the economic arguments entirely on Tory turf. And that carried on all the way through Osborne's wet dream of austerity (which cost money) and hatchet job privatisations (which cost money), Labour didn't lose the argument, they just absolutely refused to have it. And because they didn't have the argument, they still kept on getting battered with it and over again and just accepted it.
When Sunak started really shaking the magic money tree in 2020, it was absolutely the right thing to do... But the Tories must have worried about how they were going to play that. It not only disproved their main electoral mantra for the entire last decade, it also showed that austerity was bullshit and that all the terrible harm it had caused was avoidable, and of course it opened the doors for Labour to retake that ground and say "the tories did this, it worked, in fact it's the only time they've been right on the economy this century- we're going to do the same". Especially with the USA doing the same.
Instead, **** me, we've got a Tory chancellor who loves the magic money tree and a Labour party that wants to deny it exists. And Starmer's replacement will be absolutely saddled with it.
The Tory Party of David Cameron did that though. That party doesn’t exist any more. It died in 2016. Its been replaced by UKIP
Time to boringly point out the Brexit referendum was also Labour and Lib Dem policy and in the respective manifesto
I disagree on the conservatives turning into UKIP, the conservatives have a lot of MP's now who aren't in the shape of Bill Cash etc, a lot of them working hard to keep their surprise new job. The traditional Tory MP exists but is an aging and declining animal, some still do well like Jenrick but there are some interesting contrasts in the conservative front bench
I disagree on the conservatives turning into UKIP
+1
If anything they're more like new labour. Profligate spenders led by a narcissist with a talent for managing his public image and the media, with an almost cult-like following with his parliamentary party and the public. All this horror about fascism etc is basically just remainers still pissed off that we're no longer in the EU.
Time to boringly point out the Brexit referendum was also Labour and Lib Dem policy and in the respective manifesto
And since when did governments start honouring manifesto commitments?
Blair promised a referendum on the EU too (or as he referred to it: 'popular plebiscites of the Rothermere press'). He clearly never had any intention of delivering it. He was way too smart for that as he knew which way it would go.
David Cameron on the other hand...
All this horror about fascism etc is basically just remainers still pissed off that we’re no longer in the EU.
or people genuinely concerned about the undermining of democracy due to the casual contempt for it displayed by those presently in government, depending on your point of view.
I have lost count how many times I seen on here people commenting how half the population is below average intelligence.
Average intelligence is irrelevant, it is that 80% of the people voting not be very intelligent that matters. But that's democracy, everyone has a say no matter whether they have a clue about what they are voting for or not.
or people genuinely concerned about the undermining of democracy due to the casual contempt for it displayed by those presently in government, depending on your point of view.
Labour are just as responsible for undermining democracy as the tories. By not offering an alternative people have nothing to vote for, which results in the same policies with different personalities. Democracy only works if there are a range of options to vote for.
And dare I mention a certain example in 2003 where the government of the day massively undermined democracy by fabricating evidence and ignoring public opinion to implement a certain policy that absolutely no one agreed with?
Labour are just as responsible for undermining democracy as the tories.
In some sort of alternative universe, possibly. Remind me again when a labour PM illegally prorogued parliament so that it could push through its legislation without scrutiny?
And dare I mention a certain example in 2003 where the government of the day massively undermined democracy by fabricating evidence and ignoring public opinion to implement a certain policy that absolutely no one agreed with?
You seem to be getting confused about what democracy is, mate. The parliamentary vote on the war on Iraq was won by 412 votes to 149, so it may be a lot of things, but it was democratic
push through its legislation without scrutiny?
The brexit legislation had more votes, more amendments and more parliamentary time than any in history, so you can hardly claim it wasn't scrutinised. From the other side of the argument you can easily make the case that MPs were obstructing democracy by not implementing a decision clearly expressed in a referendum. It's swings and roundaboouts, both sides can claim the other are undemocratic. The reality is that it's just politics, so it's a little risible to accuse the other side of fascism just because you don't like what they're doing.
What they were doing was deemed illegal by the Supreme Court
Thats the difference.
You know... the law
The proposals, said to be under ministerial discussion, are supposedly aimed at curtailing the court’s ability to become involved in constitutional issues such as last year’s parliamentary prorogation case, which ended in a resounding defeat for Boris Johnson.
You know… the law
So you think a tiny number of judges deciding consitutional issues is more democratic than parliament doing so? Labour created the supreme court in 2009. Were they undemocratic then for creating a body which can overule parliament?
So you think a tiny number of judges deciding consitutional issues is more democratic than parliament doing so?
I think there needs to be clear separation between those making the laws and those enforcing them, yes. Particularly as this country has no written constitution which leaves it wide open to 'interpretation' or abuse. So therefore I believe in an independent and impartial judiciary, yes.
If you don't then you're either an idiot or a fascist, but then we established some time ago that you're actually worse than Hitler 😉
If Johnson had got away with proroguing parliament then, I don't doubt he'd be doing it every other time he fancied avoiding parliamentary scrutiny. We'd probably end up with MP's sitting about 2 days a year and government by dictats from Carrie Antionette
The fascism tag relates to increasing control over the state broadcaster, imposing rules on universities over 'freedom of speech' (while suggesting critical race theory might be illegal), calling judges and lawyers 'traitors', scapegoating foreigners, making displays of patriotism mandatory, illegally bypassing democratic oversight, curtailing of the right to protest, etc etc etc.
The Tories haven’t become UKIP? Really?
Anyway, some local news…
So you think a tiny number of judges deciding consitutional issues is more democratic than parliament doing so?
Abso-bloodylootly… if parliament aren’t happy with our laws, they can change them. Ministers and any arm of government need to return to parliment if they want to change how things are done, not pressurise judges into letting them make it up as they go along. Democracy isn’t just about occasionally choosing your MP, and then allowing the government and the bodies it instructs just to do anything they want when they want.
We're getting off topic. My simple point is that it's a bit daft to accuse the other side of fascism just because you don't like them. If you look at the broad direction of policy and actions of Boris's government they're neither UKIP or fascists, and look more like a centrist tory government or new labour. In fact the things they've done during covid are pretty much the most leftwing socialist policies to have been implemented since 1945, so by all means call them UKIP or fascists, but accept that the vast majority of people will disagree with you and will carry on voting for them.
I'm always amused at how quickly people on the left reach for the fascist label and/or support authoritarian style government when stuff happens that they don't like. Who oversees the judges?
Are you suggesting fascism means lower public spending? If so, why?
Why are people seeing this in simple binary terms? The Tories are economically left/centrist and on social/immigration/'culture war' issues they are hard right.
Which, sadly, seems to be broadly what people want.
I believe the BNP used to have some remarkably left sounding economic policies too.
My simple point is that it’s a bit daft to accuse the other side of fascism just because you don’t like them
I'm not accusing them of fascism because I don't like them. I'm accusing them of fascism because they increasingly behave like fascists. I've just given you an example of their blatant constitutional illegality and general contempt for democracy. Grum has just listed a number of things they're presently involved in that are democratically pretty bloody dubious.
I've just linked to an article detailing how they intend to remove the authority of the supreme court because it had the temerity to enforce the law and deemed their behavior illegal.
That sounds pretty like the behaviour of fascists to me
Just because they're presently chucking money around like a pissed sailor on shore leave doesn't mean their intentions aren't malign
calling judges and lawyers ‘traitors’, scapegoating foreigners, making displays of patriotism mandatory, illegally bypassing democratic oversight, curtailing of the right to protest, etc etc
I don't disagree, but labour have been guilty of many of these too. Both parties, to a greater or lesser extent, are guilty of doing what they hell they like, avoiding oversight and acting like tinpot dictators. The solution of course is for labour to prove they're not like the tories and propose some policies which address these problems, but I'm not seeing any evidence that they want to do that, so where does that leave 'democracy'?
I was just about to add that you'd think that the former Director of Public prosecutions might be quite vocally opposed to this assault on the rule of law.
We can live in hope, eh?
I don’t disagree, but labour have been guilty of many of these too. Both parties, to a greater or lesser extent, are guilty of doing what they hell they like, avoiding oversight and acting like tinpot dictators.
I think this will always remain the case as long we have FPTP.
I was just about to add that you’d think that the former Director of Public prosecutions
The same DPP who was (allegedly) involved in covering up the actions of police officers which led to the wrongful convictions of environmental activists and then declined to give evidence to the enquiry investigating these events? Yes of course, Keir Starmer is whiter than white on the subject of upholding the law and allowing proper scrutiny of the actions of public servants. 🙄
I think this will always remain the case as long we have FPTP.
Of course it will, so are labour planning on changing to a more democratic system? Are they ****!
Will be interesting to see what happens after Bately & Spen, polls have been pretty accurate lately and Galloway looks set to hand the seat to Tories (and I reckon Galloway will outperform polls, he's canny.)
His very nasty & dishonest campaign will be the focus so I don't think Starmer will get too much stick (Rayner leadership challenge just looked like the Times mischief making)
Fair play to Tories announcing Nissan plant as well today, they know how to ger a headline that skirts purdah rules!
Starmer will have the summer to sort his shit out, hopefully he will have a plan by then. but we're still 3 years from another election.
but we’re still 3 years from another election.
You think Boris will wait that long? There's almost no chance. It'll be autumn next year or spring '23 at the latest.
You think Boris will wait that long? There’s almost no chance. It’ll be autumn next year or spring ’23 at the latest
Why?
I can't think of a single reason
I can’t think of a single reason
Banking another term before his popularity wanes, brexit unravels and the covid enquiry gets going. He'll want to go when the post-covid economic recovery peaks. Incumbent governments who are not under siege from the opposition and media never go the full term without calling an election.
So 'A local champion with a plan to win' is not the favourite? Obviously comes from the same stables as the 'future going to be different from the past' and that was a non-starter.
Banking another term before his popularity wanes, brexit unravels and the covid enquiry gets going.
Yep, if I were him I would be going for an early election for exactly that reason.
As a natural opportunist, he'll be unable to resist the temptation to go early when the polls are like they are.
He knows what awaits further down the road, as listed above
Then you'd be making a mistake
He has an 80 seat majority, there's 0 benefit for him in changinga that
Wherever the polls are an election is a risk
Tories are vulnerable in blue wall and many ex-red wall seats are held by small margins
If Tories were polling well above 50% maybe, but otherwise itd be a huge mustake
His MPs wouldn't be happy either huge disruption and they've barely enacted a single election policy
Plus Johnson is lazy, why put himself through it, especially as he's a 1 term PM
As Cummings pointed out he hates having to work & wants to get back to earnielots of £££, his child maintenence payments alone must be eye-watering
Hell sit out his term, get a bridge named after himself & then fk off
I think it's fair to say with elections/results/popularity always expect the unexpected.
I'm out on predictions of central government; however things can and do change fast. Who could've predicted Cummings or the Hancock debacle a year ago?
Tories popularity won't stretch a full term I don't think - things wax and wane, and I'm not totally sure it will ever be down to Brexit. It will be something we can't see coming.
As for Labour - equally messed up. Next 24hrs will be interesting.
Then you’d be making a mistake
He has an 80 seat majority, there’s 0 benefit for him in changing that
He would lose even more seats in 4 years time than in 1 years time so just a case of resetting the clock at the best time.
I believe Starmer has only visited B&S once (June 10th). Doesn't seem much fight in him?
Wonder if he just wants to watch football.
Think Labour have given up because apparently you can't do anything against the government's vaccine bounce... unless you have the popular might of the Liberal Democrats obviously.
I read somewhere they are reckoned to have a 5% chance of victory
Haven't read it yet but this is on my shelf and lined up next... seemed vaguely relevant re a few posts above.
https://lwbooks.co.uk/product/on-burnley-road-class-race-and-politics-in-a-northern-english-town
Starmers mistake was letting brabin leave in the first place
As I was saying every election is a gamble, b&s was a tory seat up until blair
Galloway has run a great campaign on his own terms, able to portray himself as a socialist, using homophobia and antisemitism, and get Lawrence fox there to appeal to the anti blm crowd
"My simple point is that it’s a bit daft to accuse the other side of fascism just because you don’t like them"
It's the other way round, we don't like them because they are fascist. We want to like people, we really do. Ultimately, Its not a question of what we 'call' people, fascist is as fascist does.
Have a read of Umberto Eco's 14 common features of fascism and see how many boxes the current government are ticking.
As I was saying every election is a gamble, b&s was a tory seat up until blair
Speaking of which, I've just had a look at the present odds for B&S by-election
Conservative 1.1/1
Labour 4.5/1
Fedora hatted bell-end: 17/1
I just noticed they're taking bets on the next labour leader too
Andy Burnham 3/1
Angela Raynor 5.5/1
Lisa Nandy 7/1
Sadiq Khan 9/1
.Starmers mistake was letting brabin leave in the first place
I think you will find he had no choice Brabin is trying to build her own empire around herself. Mayors have budgets, MP's don't. That's why the locals don't like her
As I was saying every election is a gamble, b&s was a tory seat up until blair
Including the last two elections under Corbyn. Which wouldn't seem to be a ringing endorsement of the present leadership.
https://www.ft.com/content/8b94017d-e2e3-498e-bc7c-87831c42382b
"New health secretary Sajid Javid is to form a powerful alliance with chancellor Rishi Sunak to insist that major reform of England’s creaking social care system must be funded through higher taxes."
I wonder what alternative Starmer will be offering...... tax cuts and austerity?
Or maybe he'll just keep quiet.
Speaking of which, I’ve just had a look at the present odds for B&S by-election
Conservative 1.1/1
Labour 4.5/1
I hope you had a few quid on Labour.
Labour clung on to hold the Westminster seat of Batley and Spen in West Yorkshire by just 323 votes in a by-election held Thursday.
Good news. Hope somebody took advantage of those odds. Bookies are not always right & nor are the polls.
I still think Keir can have a decent run at it. NB not by anything he's shown so far - he will have to up his game.
If he fails at the election, kick him out, but not before.
I disagree ctk, I still think he’s the wrong person to lead Labour into a General Election. But crucially, trying to replace him so soon without an actual plan about who should step in and exactly what they should do differently could well wreck Labour for a generation. In terms of a leadership change, it’s still all about the timing of the next election though, and that’s in Johnson’s hands, so hard for Labour to get right.
Interesting poor showing by the Tory candidate, if all of Galloway votes came from Labour
Pollsters and bookies seriously underestimated Galloway there.
Depressing that he ran such a bigoted campaign and did so well
Although the Labour party is celebrating this morning, that is largely a function of how expectations were shaped ahead of the result. As Prof Michael Thrasher, a leading psephologist, explains in an analysis for Sky News, the fundamentals for the party remain bleak, and it is stuck in “crisis management mode”.
Here’s an extract.
A Labour majority of 3,525 votes has been reduced ten-fold. Labour’s vote share fell to 35.3%, a drop of seven percentage points from the last general election and a 20 point decline since the 2017 election.
The Conservative vote too fell but only by 1.6 points. The swing was 2.9% from Labour to Conservative.
Labour’s vote share has fallen in the last 12 parliamentary by-elections. There may not be a challenge to Sir Keir’s leadership but Labour remains in crisis management mode.