Sir! Keir! Starmer!

this is how its done – make the image of the tories as both cruel and incompetnet and keep on hammering that line until it becomes a part of their public image.

But carry on with the fundamental mistruth that undermines almost everything else? The publc instinctively know they're being lied to. They may not understand the mechanics but they can clearly see that when it's required, the govt can always find the money to do whatever it wants, and that reducing UC, or not supporting people through lockdowns are political choices, not economic ones. This is why they have such a low opinion of politicians, and Starmer is doing very little to change that.

The publc instinctively know they’re being lied to.

Thanks for the laugh!

I agree with much of your post, but the idea that the voters have natural bullshit detectors is completely at odds with experience since the 2008 crash.

I was just going to say the same thing TJ.

Today the labour party is doing exactly what the labour party should be doing. It is forcing a vote on reductions in UC.

The Tory's are being 3 line whipped to abstain on it, because they know already what a bunch of heartless ****s they look like with all the coverage of free school meals. They've put out some press release about Labour 'playing politics', but I doubt that's going to wash with many people

https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1351075346683211777?s=20

Lecturing people on economics can probably wait for another day

The publc instinctively know they’re being lied to

Erm...

Stop it Binners, you’re reminding me of an alternative reality where Lammy is preparing to speak from no10. Utterly impossible… but that’s the UK I wish we had… or at least were heading towards.

Today the labour party is doing exactly what the labour party should be doing. It is forcing a vote on reductions in UC.

I agree: much more of this, please.

Note though that the vote is non-binding.

Note though that the vote is non-binding.

Yes... because Labour is in opposition.

Thanks for the laugh!

I'm serious. You think the public don't know that the money can always be found when it's needed, but that politicians simply choose not to do it? Do you ever hear people asking where the money comes from for wars, or more topically for covid? They barely batted an eyelid when they handed over the best part of a trillion quid to the banks. Yet when the issue of finding money for public services, benefits etc is raised, the politicians, including labour ones who are supposed to be on the public's side, repeat the lie that there's no money to pay for it. The result is that all politicians are seen as dishonest, self-serving and uninterested in changing anything. Starmer will get nowhere until he changes this view, and he's not going to do that by telling voters there's not enough money to do what is required, because they know deep down that it's a lie.

Yes… because Labour is in opposition.

Some types of motion are binding, so you're not quite right.

Anyway, that wasn't my point, which is that assuming Labour wins the vote, we should keep an eye on what the Tories do in response.

You think the public don’t know that the money can always be found when it’s needed, but that politicians simply choose not to do it?

The public think that, over a period of time, there are restrictions on creating money. They think that money spent now must be paid by the public at some point. It is an oversimplification that is, in my opinion, as good as a lie. If you don't... for want of a better word... "pander" to that concept, and bend it rather than totally dismiss it, while in opposition, you'll stay in opposition. So... talk of "responsible spending", although economic nonsense, has to be part of your language if you want to be elected.

Anyway, that wasn’t my point, which is that assuming Labour wins the vote, we should keep an eye on what the Tories do in response.

The Tories are being 3-line whipped to abstain. Johnson is going with the line that this is labour 'playing politics' as opposed to trying to ensure people have enough money to live on

Johnson is clearly worried that some Tory MPs (most likely the new 'Red Wall' lot) will vote with labour, hence the 3 line whip.

Given where we are at the moment, the Tory's favourite narrative - that those on benefits are all ****less layabouts - is becomign a harder and harder sell. This is now impacting on a much larger part of society as unemployment rockets, and thats before furlough ends and it goes through the roof

which is that assuming Labour wins the vote

They won't win the vote. It is all about pinning the "heartless tories" tag on North of England MPs ready for future elections.

They won’t win the vote. It is all about pinning the “heartless tories” tag on North of England MPs ready for future elections.

Why won't they win the vote? As Binners notes, the Tories are being whipped to abstain.

The Tories are being 3-line whipped to abstain

Wise. The government are likely to be pushed into doing something for low pay voters this year, it might be continuing the small UC bump, or they might find another way... but they don't want the "voted to reduce UC during the pandemic" tag pinned on some key MPs in seats that Labour need to win back.

As Binners notes, the Tories are being whipped to abstain.

I didn't know that when I wrote my post.

Blimey! Me and Daz agree on something

I can guarantee we agree on almost everything, the only difference is how to get there.

In a largely depressing thread, a good reminder that disagreement is mainly about how not what.

I didn’t know that when I wrote my post.

Binners had already mentioned it further up the page.

Meanwhile in the state that SKS strongly supports, the one you aren't allowed to criticise or you're a racist:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/18/middleeast/israelis-palestinians-vaccination-intl/index.html

Johnson is clearly worried that some Tory MPs (most likely the new ‘Red Wall’ lot) will vote with labour, hence the 3 line whip.

I get that - my point was that the Tories may, for example, choose to wait for the media interest to wane and do nothing.

my point was that the Tories may, for example, choose to wait for the media interest to wane and do nothing.

I think that'll probably be the plan. But this is all mounting up, isn't it? Marcus Rashford is already on the hi-profile warpath about the next school holidays where we're likely to see a repeat of the last two:

The government saying free school meals won't be provided, right up until the point that a 23 year old footballer shames them into a U-turn. Again.

Whats different at the moment, and will be more so shortly, is that people who never imagined themselves on benefits, now are. And a hell of a lot more are about to be. So the Torys usual line about undeserving scroungers just isn't going to wash any more.

A lot of these new benefit claimants will be natural Tory voters who are about to find out the yawning chasm between a cushy life on benefits as depicted by Tory Central Office and the Daily Mail and the subsistance level of poverty and foodbanks that are the reality

I think that’ll probably be the plan. But this is all mounting up, isn’t it? Marcus Rashford is already on the hi-profile warpath about the next school holidays where we’re likely to see a repeat of the last two:

The government saying free school meals won’t be provided, right up until the point that a 23 year old footballer shames them into a U-turn. Again.

Whats different at the moment, and will be more so shortly, is that people who never imagined themselves on benefits, now are. So the Torys usual line about undeserving scroungers just isn’t going to wash any more

I think that Rashford has, no pun intended, presented Starmer with an open goal.

I think that with the public now paying a bit more attention to this area, Labour has a huge opportunity to show the Tory narrative about benefits for the lie that it is.

Today is a good sign that they intend to do just that

Binners had already mentioned it further up the page.

I don't read every word Binners types... I tend to look at the pictures more.

So the Torys usual line about undeserving scroungers just isn’t going to wash any more

Let's hope so.

It's absolutely where Labour should be pushing... that they would run the country for all... that many of us are one pandemic or shift in global demand away from needing the government to run the benefit system, like the rest of the state, correctly, efficiently, and for the good of us all, not just those already being helped. They shouldn't be talking about Israel right now, obviously.

Today is a good sign that they intend to do just that

I've been bitterly disappointed with Starmer so far, so I really hope that this is a sign of things to come.

I don’t read every word Binners types… I tend to look at the pictures more.

Fine, but it would perhaps be better if you didn't post with such certainty if you're not going to do any basic fact-checking.

Father Jack makes a more coherent argument than you.

My case reclines upon the divan.

Looks like theres a good few Tory MP's planning to ignore the 3 line whip and vote for the labour party motion tonight.

So whats Johnson going to do? In the past that'd be an immediate removal of the whip affair. Thats going to be a great look. Removing the whip from MP's who vote against forcing another 500,000+ people into poverty

The BBC is also leading its news broadcasts with this today and Starmer was on ITV this morning and said:

If [Zahawi] is going to call it a stunt, he should probably come with me to a food distribution centre to see these families this morning and explain to them what is a lifeline to them is a ‘stunt’, because it certainly isn’t from their point of view.

I think in their heart of hearts they [Tory MPs] would actually vote with us today if they had the option to do so.

Labour lost the last 4 elections on the public not trusting them with the economy. This is where they need to change public opinion.

Tories are presenting them with all the ammo they need at the mo. They should go harder after the dodgy deals - no holds barred.

Tories are presenting them with all the ammo they need at the mo. They should go harder after the dodgy deals – no holds barred.

And point out that Tory dithering on restrictions had caused the economic damage of the pandemic to become far worse than it needed to be.

They should go harder after the dodgy deals – no holds barred.

Absolutely. But instead of saying 'the tories are printing money to give to their millionaire mates, and instead we'll give it to the NHS', they're saying 'we won't give money to anyone because we'll impose abitrary limits on spending because you the public don't understand economics'. There is an open goal there waiting for Starmer and Dodds to kick the ball into it, but they're arguing with the referee about the rules and listening to the opposing fans telling them not to do it. Madness!

Have you thought about making a short public information film where you get some cuddly children's TV characters to explain in words of less than two syllables your new economics model to the electorate?

You could call it something catchy like 'just read the book you bunch of ****ing thicko's!'

...making a short public information film where you get some cuddly children’s TV characters to explain...

I'd be well up for doing this for Universal Basic Income. I'll have a go at some three word slogans as well...

"None go hungry"
"Freedom to learn"
"Everyone made secure"
"Employees not slaves"
"Needs before wants"

Okay.. I'm clearly not the one to do this!

“None go hungry”

What, not even scoungers? No way!

“Freedom to learn”

Students?!!!!?!

“Everyone made secure”

Security breeds complacency! Keep the plebs hungry for it!!!

“Employees not slaves”

Don't start with your BLM shite now!!!

“Needs before wants”

Everyone needs a new X4 every other year!

Moron!!!

Secure is a good word

"Secure for life"

Have you thought about making a short public information film where you get some cuddly children’s TV characters

I don't need to, plenty of people have already explained it in simple language. Here's one..

Here's another..

Powerful stuff in this. If only we had an equivalent to Sanders in UK politics. Starmer shoud pay close attention.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/20/joe-biden-action-bernie-sanders

The latest polling is showing a 4 point labour lead

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1354742161804324873?s=20

You know that will trigger someone to watch new polling results obsessively until they find one with labour behind don't you?

Obviously.

Anyway, let’s hope this is a tortoise and the hare situation, not a little blip. Fingers crossed…

You know that will trigger someone to watch new polling results obsessively until they find one with labour behind don’t you?

On the contrary, Binbins has managed to find the only recent poll with Labour in the lead. There's a summary here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

Polling results now are like being 3 points ahead in rugby after 10 minutes - it's the last 10 minutes that are interesting and the final score that counts. I appreciate I've come a little late to this thread as the 3,408th post, but all Sir Keir needs to do for now is keep showing himself to be competent and reasoned, and carry on asking awkward question to BJ. Then in three and a half years' time start rolling out 'greatest hits compilation' clips of Brexit lies vs actual consequences, and Covid cock-ups - if that doesn't sway the swing voters the UK (or what's left of it) is doomed to become a one-party state.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/sir-keir-starmer-tells-lbc-he-supports-pms-perfectly-legitimate-scotland-trip/

Sir Keir told Nick Ferrari: "I understand he's going to see a vaccine centre, going to talk to the NHS and I'd expect the Prime Minister to do that.

Does Starmer even know that the NHS in Scotland has nothing to do with the PM? I rather think he supports BJ on this because he'd do the same Union-flag flying thing himself.

Sir Keir needs to do for now is keep showing himself to be competent and reasoned, and carry on asking awkward question to BJ.

I think we can all agree that he is competent and reasoned, yet doesn't seem to be landing many blows on a PM who has presided over 100,000 deaths. What he hasn't yet done is give us any idea of what his Labour party is for, seemingly preferring to leave it to a 23 year-old footballer. If he thinks winning at PMQs is going to make an iota of difference to his party's fortunes, he's going to be sorely disappointed.

On the contrary, Binbins has managed to find the only recent poll with Labour in the lead. There’s a summary here:

I don't actually go looking. It just popped up in my Twitter feed so I thought I'd share it.

With predictable results.

Do you need reminding that this time last year, at the fag end of Magic Grandads calamitous tenure, Labour had just handed the Tory's a whopping great majority and were 26 points behind them in the polls?

I don’t actually go looking. It just popped up in my Twitter feed so I thought I’d share it.

With predictable results.

Predictable that I might be interested in whether the poll represents a trend or is an outlier? Why yes, guilty as charged. But you feel free to hold your telescope to your blind eye.

Do you need reminding that this time last year, at the fag end of Magic Grandads calamitous tenure, Labour had just handed the Tory’s a whopping great majority and were 26 points behind them in the polls?

It's interesting that you feel the need to defend Starmer by comparing him with his predecessor.

I'm not 'defending' him as he doesn't need defending. I'm pointing out that he's shifted the poll ratings by 30 points in less than twelve months

I think we can all agree that restoring the potential electability of the Labour party from the political basket case it had become under the last regime is a good thing, yes?

Being a student protest group instead of an effective opposition and serious alternative government hasn't really worked out well for anyone other than Boris and chums, has it?

What he hasn’t yet done is give us any idea of what his Labour party is for

He can't because there are at least two descreete factions in labour, bluntly put, the corbynites and new labour under Starmer.

Until the party splits into at least 2 different logical parties or they unify themselves, it will still make them unelectable.

At the moment, Labour are at war with themselves, they have been for a long time, and that divde will cost them enough votes to never see the PM's office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Some things strike me from this page,

1) Starmer / Johnson broadly seem equally popular.

that's where we're at, UK.

There's more...

2) Unbelievably, people approved of Johnson all through lockdown #1, as if he was bravely doing his very very bestymost that he possibly could... but this isn't the case any more.
3) Starmer has been universally approved of since aappointment to labours top job
4) nobody approves of Farage, Davey, or the Greens.
5) Sturgeon is universally approved, no doubt aided by turning up regularly and not being shit at telling everyone how covid is being handled
6) nobody liked Jeremy, ever.

all that aside

7) universally, Johnson + Sunak is preferred above Starmer + Dodds.

Taking (1) and (3) into account, I think Starmer may need another chancellor.

Maybe he needs a "colourful character".

boris vs keir, trend since mid 2020

I think Starmer may need another chancellor.

He absolutely does. Contrast her appearances with that of Miliband. But I don’t see any reshuffle happening unless it is forced. Labour need to keep looking like a steady ship if possible, and avoid anything that allows the papers to portray them as an ongoing series of mutinies.

When I've seen Anneliese Dodds interviewed she actually talks a lot of sense, but she doesn't seem to have any 'presence' at all.

Unfortunately the age we live in requires someone with more impact. Say what you like about Rishi Sunak, he knows about self-promotion and managing how he's perceived by the electorate

yet doesn’t seem to be landing many blows on a PM

Its odd as Boris seems to have somehow survived every blow since campaigning for the 2019 GE began! I think the only blows that he wont survive are a vote of no confidence, (fingers crossed) another GE or he decides hes done and walks. Things that he and his party have been caught doing would have been resignations before

I agree with every word of that Binners.

I’m not ‘defending’ him as he doesn’t need defending. I’m pointing out that he’s shifted the poll ratings by 30 points in less than twelve months

They were losing by a lot, and now they're losing by a little. I guess you're easily satisfied.

There’s no election to lose right now. I’m hoping when the next election has come and gone, that we will have more Labour MPs than we have now. Many more. Enough to be in government would be ideal, but I still fear unlikely.

That's the issue; ‘presence’ shouldn't register in politics, but it does.

A bad business manager can go very far on bluster and bullshit if he says the right things to the right people.

There’s no election to lose right now.

In which case the opinion polls from the end of Corbyn's tenure, and the recent one Binners spaffed himself over, are essentially meaningless.

They were losing by a lot, and now they’re losing by a little. I guess you’re easily satisfied.

Clearly not as easily satisfied as you. Like a lot of you those on the left, you seem an awful lot happier with a Tory government with a massive majority, the Labour party as popular with the electorate as a fart in a lift, but with your precious idealogical purity intact.

Anyway... that poll shows a 4 point lead, so your statement is factually inaccurate anyway

What he hasn’t yet done is give us any idea of what his Labour party is for

The only thing I and many others have heard is 'we support the government'. That'll be his political epitaph I fear.

In which case the opinion polls from the end of Corbyn’s tenure, and the recent one Binners spaffed himself over, are essentially meaningless.

The one opinion poll that really mattered at the end of Corbyns tenure - the one where you express your opinion in the voting booth - delivered an 80 seat Tory majority. Hardly meaningless.

We are all paying the price for the abject failure of the Corbynite 'project'.

The party under Starmer seems to be successfully distancing itself from it, which is making them more likely to form a government. They've moved a long way in the last 9 months with regard to recovering some much-needed credibility and establishing an air of competence and fitness for office, that is so clearly missing from the shower presently in charge.

For some truly bizarre reason, that seems to really, really piss off those on the left, who clearly prefer a life of impotent placard-waving and petition signing, while endlessly retweeting #Jeremywasright into their 6th form echo chambers

I fear the next two years are going to be turgid, completely dominated by the negative effects of Brexit and the approbrium will be piled on Boris and his acolytes.

I wonder how eager many Tories are to boot out Boris right Now? Better to let him stew in his own cauldron of shit for a year or two, wait till the country hits absolute rock bottom and then stage an internal coup, reinventing themselves just in time for the next election.

The Tories are experts at this sort of thing. It's something the Republcans in the US would love to be able to do but can't. The cult of Boris is a lot more fragile than that of the orange one. I'm not knocking Starmer but my gut tells me Sunak will be the next PM and will fight and win the next election.

I think you're bang on.

They're going to leave Boris to stew. He's clearly hating all this. This isn't what he signed up for. He signed up for a big jolly, swanning around the globe, shaking hands and kissing babies (not his own, obviously). I think he saw himself more as a king rather than a politician who actually has to make tough decisions.

Theres going to be a hell of a reckoning when this is all done. A public inquiry into the whole shambles, PPE, corrupt contracts, the test and trace fiasco, appalling decision making. Boris and co are going to be in the dock and are going to have to carry the can for the lot as well as the mess of Brexit as it all unravels and the sunlit uplands fail to materialise to even the dimmest of Brexiteers

Whoever Starmer ends up going up against at the next general election, it certainly won't be Boris. And I doubt many more of the collection of dimwits that make up the present cabinet will be there either

I’m not ‘defending’ him as he doesn’t need defending. I’m pointing out that he’s shifted the poll ratings by 30 points in less than twelve months

Correlation does not mean cause. I reckon its mostly Boris doing the hard yards himself.

Clearly not as easily satisfied as you. Like a lot of you those on the left, you seem an awful lot happier with a Tory government with a massive majority, the Labour party as popular with the electorate as a fart in a lift, but with your precious idealogical purity intact.

A purity so intense that Starmer was my second preference for leader, and I never voted for Corbyn. But I wouldn't expect you to start admitting facts into your arguments, given your history. Much easier to parcel people you disagree with into neat little packages, ready to be abused.

Anyway… that poll shows a 4 point lead, so your statement is factually inaccurate anyway

It's great that you're able to disregard all of the evidence that contradicts your view, and cling on to the one titbit in your favour.

"If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through."

This just popped up in my twitter feed:

Vaccine bounce, I suspect tory lead will only get bigger as vaccine rollout hits target in Feb & EU having shot themselves in foot
Electorates memories are short, even with UKs death toll

I agree. The same poll also showed Johnson as more popular than Starmer.

Electorates memories are short, even with UKs death toll

I refer you to comments I made some time ago about how the tories would ultimately benefit from covid. I never for a second thought they'd they'd get a massive helping hand from the EU though. Also news this morning that Boris and Sunak are planning a massive public spending splurge post-covid to turbocharge the recovery. Seems Starmer is destined to spend the next few years saying 'I agree with Boris'. He's screwed. Boris will increase his majority and Starmer will go down as one of the least effective labour leaders in history.

But he won a poll last week

Also news this morning that Boris and Sunak are planning a massive public spending splurge post-covid to turbocharge the recovery.

It's been happening for a while: I can assure you that there's never been a better time to apply for government grant funding.

It’s been happening for a while

Yup. I'm convinced Boris is a secret MMTer. He's discovered that there's a magic money tree and like all good populists is going to use it for maximum advantage. It's going to be interesting to see what Starmer does. We could well have the odd scenario of a labour leader opposing tory largesse. Starmer is going to have to come up with something very imaginitive because right now he feels like a complete irrelevance.

He’s discovered that there’s a magic money tree and like all good populists is going to use it for maximum advantage. It’s going to be interesting to see what Starmer does.

Yeah. Boris knows which buttons to push that will be popular, even if he never delivers.

In a year or so after Covid has hopefully passed, the Tory's can focus on divisive attacks on Labour, probably based on social issues.

Starmer and co. Need to start forming a solid economic and social stance which they can back up and really get behind to push back on the inevitable attacks that are coming.

At the moment Starmer does still seem a bit reactionary which has been ok for a while but that time is now slowly coming to an end.

Tory’s can focus on divisive attacks on Labour, probably based on social issues.

They won't need to attack. All they'll do is dismiss labour as an irrelevance, and they're right. They'll say they beat covid with the vaccine programme, and are supporting the economic recovery with massive spending, and all Starmer can do is snipe from the sidelines. Starmer will be forced to continue his 'we support the government, but..' line and that's all the tories need to win the next election and extend their majority.

That's pretty much the way I see it too dazh, by the next election the Tories will likely appear to have moved towards the centre, probably with Sunak (Mr money tree) at the helm.

It will be interesting to see how the social issues thing will play out over the next couple of years but the Tories will pull back from the culture war (As they put it) thing. By the time of the next election the Tories will likely purge many of the hard-core right wingers and ERG nuts from the front bench. A Sunak cabinet will be made up of talents (thin pickings I know) rather than allegiance to Brexit and the dear leader. Gove will likely be the only survivor as he's a complete political chameleon whilst the others are just lizards.

I've never seen Boris so nervous as when I saw his first TV interview after Biden's inauguration, the Tories had banked on a Trump win and the false promise (as it always was) of a US trade deal. They had also gotten too comfortable with the lazy, socially divisive and racist rhetoric that had worked so well for them in getting a leave vote and had continued to suit their purposes whilst a raging fascist was in control at the White House.

The Tories will be much more cautious with the new administration,. The UK is desperate for a trade deal so won't want to piss the Americans off. For the US at bilateral trade deal with the UK is somewhere near the bottom of the in tray as it is. Those Tories that have cheered for Trump these last four years will now be grovelling to Biden and Harris.

https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1355625995064246275?s=20

I laughed

😂

Ok, that’s pretty funny.

Tim Farron is my local MP, he's actually great. Shame he's a weird Christian but his voting record is good regardless.