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kimbers
Full Memberif they sell off the land itll be virtually impossible for Labour to go ahead with northern legs
The downsized Euston development is also expansion-proof
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brush-teeth-schools-teachers-labour-dentist-b2424945.html
Surely childeren should arrive at first year toilet trained as a minimum.
A primary school teacher cannot change nappies and teach a class at the same time.
His big policy announcements consist of don't worry old people/majority of the electorate we won't change anything.
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To even further subsidise car purchases for people with off road parking?
Well meant as a general comment towards progressive policies.
Whereas neither party is doing **** all, and being trapped in a dead-lock over who dare spend any cash.
Let's face it we're not getting anywhere without the money.
You can say whatever you want about economic theories and accept there is no money or you can make a case against Starmer that there is money to do things because Reeves and he believe they can't do a thing without private sector growth.
Seriously.
I'd really like to know how you believe economic growth occurs. Feel free to offer an alternative *theory* (Reminder MMT Is the only theory that starts with the way Government's currently spend. There is no othery theory that does that. The main alternative monetarist view starts with the idea rich people are the source of the ££££. Which is demonstrable bollocks.)
As for car subsidies - yeah on a micro level we got our first EV 6 years ago and charger - with some state subsidy. It wouldn't have happened without it. But you very well know this is micro is not macro.
His big policy announcements consist of don’t worry old people/majority of the electorate we won’t change anything
He simply follows where the Tories go.
Time after time we keep seeing this and yet supporters find ways to hold their right wing hero in high regard whilst at the same time screaming at the Tories.
It's totally perplexing.
Outcomes keep getting worse, politics keep shifting rightwards and Centrists never stop to analyse their position in this process that they are being shifted ever rightwards.
This is all fine if you want things to constantly be on a downward trajectory.
I really hope Starmer is just faking it to be in power but I can't see it. That's my 10% hope.
The main problem with Starmer is that – being a reasonable, compromising, nerd –
There is no evidence in his leadership of the labour party that he is in any way compromising, in fact he has quite effectively eradicated alternative views. What I think you mistake for compromise is lack of any political ideals or philosophy, his aim is to be in power and he will tell an audience anything to achieve it. Which leads to making contradictory statements on different days, which isn't an an indication of compromise it is a display of dishonesty.
He has shown us who he is, it is time people started believing what his actions demonstrate rather than trying to pick up on just the bits in his speeches that they like and agree with. Because doing that is just the same as the maga crew and the boris fanboys.
Rutherglan byelection anyone?
Fine result for labour and a bigger margin than I expected - tories lost their deposit but they didn't really campaign or try - the labour / tory pact again?
Hmmm, a bit more significant than that TJ I think, despite the context of the election. I thought labour were absolutely gone up here - obviously took advantage of the SNPs issues and it is a ‘traditional’ labour seat, turnout was low, but still a shock.
Not a shock at all. A shock would have been the SNP holding the seat. Its a bigger margin than I expected but most of that is Tory voters voting labour as an anti SNP vote.
Its not the huge seismic shock that the Grauniad has it as
Surely childeren should arrive at first year toilet trained as a minimum.
Of course, but some don't. What do we do about that?
School starts before year one as well. And don’t forget in some areas breakfast club is about getting some food into children that would otherwise go hungry without schools intervening… it’s not just for the parents’ convenience. Or course no child should be going hungry… but welcome to the UK that many teachers see and most people never come into contact with. Adding tooth cleaning lessons to breakfast clubs make sense… but both should be staffed and paid for, not relying on existing teaching staff. Schools in less well off areas need more staff, and (officially) longer days.
Its not the huge seismic shock that the Grauniad has it as
Indeed, it's a blip ,poor old (Scottish) Labour will now try and milk it as their heroic/triumphant return.
I love how they think that folk up here have forgotten how much they were ignored/shafted by UK Labour.
People are utterly fed up with the total incompetence of the SNP. Hopefully this is the start of a revival of Labour in Scotland.
Or course “parenting” needs improving. In the meantime, kids need help and schools fill in the gaps. If they don’t, kids suffer.
[ remember… SURE START CENTRES !! ]
It's not so much the 20% swing for me as the 2023 Labour vote being double that of SNP and way more than the 2019 SNP majority on double the turnout
Rutherglen & Hamilton West does alternate tho
timba - A lot of that is Tory voters voting labour.
Rutherglen does have some interesting takeaways for Starmer I think. Its a good result no matter how anyone spins it. Its shows Labour will take significant Seats in Scotland in the GE, 10? 20? could they hope for more? "Two cheeks of the same arse" did not cut thru it was countered by the labour candidate repudiating bits of Starmers policy platform. So clearly some of those middle class lefties also went back to labour. Tories lost their deposit in a huge collapse and those votes went to labour. Unionist vote centering on labour? Starmers right wing shift making labour a safe home for disaffected tories? The Scottish labour / tory pact again?
Poor result for the SNP. they look out of steam and out of ideas with poor leadership. Plenty time for them to turn things around before the GE and byelections always exaggerate trends but it cannot be spun as anything other than fairly disastrous.
Its a bigger margin than I expected but most of that is Tory voters voting labour as an anti SNP vote.
Honestly, you just make stuff up sometimes. Labour share increased 24%. Tory share fell 11%. SNP share fell 16.7%. It is mathematically impossible for most of Labour's increased margin to have come from ex-Tory voters.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutherglen_and_Hamilton_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
What you have is ex-SNP voters voting Labour as an anti-SNP vote. The corruption at the head of the party and the shambles of Ferrier in particular was of the SNP's own making.
You have long said that Labour's position on the EU (no plans for re-entry) has cost it support outside the former Red Wall, especially in Scotland. Is there any part of the Rutherglen vote that makes you wonder about that?
It is also why we are in such a dismal mess pretending (lying) that the private sector must generate money for the state before we fix anything.
I see you've taken your pet economic theory from "the state should pay for stuff by borrowing" to "the state should pay for any old stuff by borrowing".
Poor result for the SNP. they look out of steam and out of ideas...
That's the issue, and yes, by-elections often show mid-term extremes
I don't know enough about the quality of their leadership, but is there plenty of time for them to turn things around before the GE if they are indeed poor?
People were voting Tory in Scotland because they were clearly anti indy not that they so much wanted a tory government. I know a few people who when casting their votes were not happy about it but they believed that Indy Scotland would be terrible for the country. They will be much happier if they can vote Labour in the knowledge that it is not just a wasted vote.
There is only so much failure people will put up with health/education/ferries/A9 fiasco etc. The appetite for Indy is dropping and the SNP incompetence is entirely to blame, they have totally failed to make the case that Indy would be successful. I could be persuaded to vote for Indy but the brexit style arguments of vote for Indy and everything will improve was not convincing.
nickc - yes.
Cultsdaves post shows it in a nutshell. On independence there area large number of folk who could be pursuaded and some of them are not.
The SNP government has been far better than your assessment IMO. However like most governments that have been in power more than a decadethey look like they have run out of steam. Next Holyrood election will be after the GE IIRC. The likely outcome of that is a labour / tory Scots government which will be a shambles even with a labour government in Westminster. SNP can go away for 4 years and regroup under a better leader as well has sort out the fight between the progressives and the centrists within the party.
You have long said that Labour’s position on the EU (no plans for re-entry) has cost it support outside the former Red Wall, especially in Scotland. Is there any part of the Rutherglen vote that makes you wonder about that?
What I thought would happen seems not to. I did allude to it in my post but yes - attacking Starmers policy positions including on EU ie the "two cheeks of the same arse" attack line did not cut thru at all. As you point out those leftie voters returned to labour.
Starmer will be well pleased and it puts labour in a place where they could and likely will take significant seats in Scotland. Starmer has said they need that.
there is also a wider UK point for Starmer which is that moving right has attracted Tory voters without repelling labour voters on the left. I'm suprised but its clear.
Scottish voters are seeing the Tories as the greater evil at the moment, that's it IMO.
The SNP government has been far better than your assessment IMO
The overall impression south of the border is a better one I think, but the points @cultsdave raises are still true enough, and the polling for Independence has been strongly no since what? Dec22/Jan 23? and all of that can be laid at the feet of the SNP I think.
As you point out those leftie voters returned to labour.
I don't think the election result shows that lefties are returning to Labour. If Tories, Lib Dems and SNP voters are defecting to Labour, maybe that shows SNP voters are not as liberal or social democratic as you (one) thinks.
The SNP is a centrist republican movement. But if it can't be competent (which is the boring pitch of centrists) or ride a wave of nationalism, then it faces a scenario where the headbanging nationalist SNP voters bleed out to Alba, the left go to SSP etc, and the soft left and hard right go to Lib Dem/Labour/Tories.
Rutherglen is not going to be representative of what happens in Scotland in the future. You had q year of terrible corruption and incompetence at party level, and a particularly awful outgoing MP. But the SNP should be really worried.
What you have is ex-SNP voters voting Labour as an anti-SNP vote
Honestly, you just make stuff up sometimes. Problem is the swing/percentages can distort what actually happened and lead to this sort of speculation.
If we take the actual numbers we can see the Labour vote actually dropped from 2019 by about a 1000 votes.
Which isnt unexpected given a byelection.
The swing was due to the SNP (plus tories) vote plummeting. Slightly less expected in a byelection but not unknown. Since people know it wont swing the government it works as an effective protest vote.
Without going and asking the voters its impossible to tell how many switched from SNP and tories to Labour.
In theory, although unlikely, it could have been none.
I would guess some of both plus a lot of labour voters feeling motivated to go and vote and a lot of snp/tory supporters not feeling the same.
The SNP is a centrist republican movement.
Thats what it used to be. Over the last 10 years its moved well to the left of Labour and that has caused tension in the ranks with the traditionalist part of the party trying to regain some control since Sturgeon went.
It does look like a fair bit of tactical anti snp or unionist tactical voting. There is a also a large body of voters who float between SNP and Labour.
Its not the "seismic shift" Sawwar and Starrmer are claiming - because the SNP vote did not desert them totally. The big majority is because labour have hoovered up pretty much everything but the core SNP vote.
@dissonance : That's all a fair point about that one sentence. Either way - a "Labour won mostly because Tories switched to them" narrative is untenable, and minimizes the role of the SNP's own underperformance and why people who voted for them last time are abandoning them - either for other parties or the couch.
Over the last 10 years its moved well to the left of Labour
Isn't the consensus view on here that Labour has moved well to the right in the last decade and are little better than Tories? I think one budding Alistair Campbell repeatedly described them as "two cheeks of the same arse"???
SNP opposes raising NI and VAT, favours low business taxes, wants to be in NATO, wants back into the Common Market, wants more "support" for the oil and gas sector, and doesn't favour renationalisation of privatised industries. It also has a bunch of incremental benefits for the poor and provides free tertiary healthcare etc. These are classic, left-right straddling centrist boring policies. With the exception of independence, this could also be the Lib Dem platform.
https://www.snp.org/policies/
There is a also a large body of voters who float between SNP and Labour.
This seat particularly just seems to go back and forth between SNP and Labour.
Labour really need to release the "policy handbrake" at the conference and go into full attack mode.
The Bad Ship Tory is fully breached, listing in icy waters, with the grubby ****ers clambering over women and children to get into the £10k a day "Consultancy Lifeboats" clutching their suitcases full of pilfered public money, all while Braverman and a load of blackface minstrels are on deck blasting out their last hate-filled song.
Over the last 10 years its [s]moved[/s] stayed well to the left of Labour
Might be more accurate?
Either way, this result isn't exactly the cataclysm that some are reporting. It's a seat that has changed hands at 5 elections now and prior to that was (boundary changes notwithstanding) solidly Labour.
Unfortunate really. The SNP leadership can look at the result and think "ah, who gives a damn" rather than look at the bigger picture. While I doubt we're going to see a SNP wipeout at the next GE, I predict large losses and a hit to their finances as a result. That will subsequently affect the next Holyrood election too.
Anyway, there should be a special thread for Scottish politics 😉
tjagain Full Member
The SNP is a centrist republican movement.
Thats what it used to be. Over the last 10 years its moved well to the left of Labour and that has caused tension in the ranks with the traditionalist part of the party trying to regain some control since Sturgeon went.
Given that Kate Forbes came pretty close to becoming leader of the SNP it feels like the party's leftism may not be as firmly entrenched as it is sometimes presented.
Over the last 10 years its moved well to the left of Labour
Including the period 2015-2019? Or didn't Labour election manifestos apply to Scotland?
Youve got to hand it to the Tories
theyve snookered Labour on this one
grim that theyve effectively blocked High Speed Rail from ever reaching the North to do it
https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1709998656462434426
That’s all a fair point about that one sentence. Either way – a “Labour won mostly because Tories switched to them” narrative is untenable
No it was about your entire claim. Especially the one about "It is mathematically impossible".
Whilst I would agree tjagains claim is unlikely to be accurate so was your equally wild claim.
Youve got to hand it to the Tories
theyve snookered Labour on this one
I tend towards the opposite. The tories have screwed up here.
Given all the claims about fiscal responsibility it would have put Labour in a difficult position to argue for HS2. On a pure cost benefit perspective its really unclear especially given prices will continue to spiral.
Now though they can just blame the tories for being unable to reinstate it. They can just argue the tories burn it down tactics have rendered it unfeasible.
Including the period 2015-2019? Or didn’t Labour election manifestos apply to Scotland?
I would say so. The second part of your question is rather more complex to answer. Sometimes depending is the answer 🙂 Rutherglen the candidate repudiated large parts of London labour positions. 🙂
The second part of your question is rather more complex to answer.
Is it? In the 2017 and 2019 general elections both the Labour Party and SNP had election manifestos, which party had the most left-wing election manifesto?
It's only as complicated as you want to make it.
Labour are, I suspect, very sadly, right not to promise to uncancel HS2.
But Labour has already "pledged" to build HS2 in full, whatever the current Tory government decided to do. No ifs or buts.
What totally unforeseeable circumstances have occurred which could not have been predicted?
However speaking after the Commons debate today, shadow Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds told the BBC's PM programme: "We will build HS2 in full and we will build Northern Powerhouse Rail in full.
"That's the clear pledge that we've given".
Including the period 2015-2019? Or didn’t Labour election manifestos apply to Scotland?
As per TJ it's rather nuanced. As long as it wasn't also an SNP policy then it applied, if it was then they would vote against it. See rail nationalisation for one such example.
Or didn’t Labour election manifestos apply to Scotland?
Is the second part of your question. I already answered the first. There was not a lot between then at the point you mention.
As for do labour manifestos apply? - well that depends 🙂 Mebbies aye an mebbies naw
this is not the thread for the minutiae of scots politics. I thought Rutherglen had some interesting takeaways for Starmer and the rest of us.