https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1679444687294275586?t=eBeAzN56wXFEsw90vKD3OQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1679445045718536192?t=cw59DcbaCi-v_Xom23fY7w&s=19
Not seen a poll for a short while.
Not sure what Sunak's done recently for a small uptick but there you are.
He hasn't done anything.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-9-july-2023/
He hasn’t done anything.
No change there then, that seems to be the position of most MPs these days.
All out of ideas and steam.
We need a huge reboot. This was always going to be the case post-pandemic.
I see growth is down/flat-lining again. The whole thing is so ridiculous - Reeves thinks they're going to generate this miraculous growth - from what?
It's total idiocy that the Tories have convinced Labour that the normal position is growth appearing from nothing.
It's primary school logic.
Again, without large scale government spending and/or a buoyant private sector (which follows) they will not get growth - so why do they keeping talking it up?
Someone needs to layout a plan now. There is an opportunity.
- Identify societal deficits
- Propose budget
- Explain how the money is found (Q/E if necessary.)
- Lower interest rates in steps
- Subsidise energy again
- Spend the cash in order of priority
- Bring energy / water into public control
- Large-scale green energy/infrastructure investment
- Tax the finance/banking sector
It's all broad strokes but much better than doing nothing.
What a thoroughly depressing display on Kuensberg this morning. Couldn’t bear to watch it. A slimy, slippery suit full of **** all. At best, a slightly less mendacious version of what we all ready have. No commitment to public spending, just nebulous promises of ‘reform’, something he couldn’t even detail when pressed 3 times.
Lord help us.
Yep, he gets worse and worse. All hope of him actually trying to improve anything are gone and the only positive is he probably won't do the nastier stuff the tories do. Hooray.
I feared that Labour would end up like this in the run-up to an election, nothing to differentiate them from the incumbents. I just hope they have a plan that will reveal itself when an election is announced as otherwise we are in tela danger of sleepwalking into another Tory government through apathy.
I'm really hoping they come forward with something inspiring before the GE. Relying on the Tories being shite is risky. The country needs hope as much as anything - any positive policy will annoy someone but the obsession with keeping quiet a noisy fringe minority of right wing social media grifters and hangers on is frustrating
Labour ran a pretty positive campaign going into 1997 but current lot seemed to have forgotten how that uplifting sense of hope gave them license to deliver policy and momentum into second term
Does starmer have a boss we can moan to?
I want THEM to know how ****ing useless he is.
someone needs to layout a plan now. There is an opportunity
But who?
IMO we need PR. The lib dems and green party should go hard after it- become almost single issue parties.
Labour need to get behind PR so that we don't have non stop Tory governments.
If only the party could vote on it and make it policy. (!)
I've totally lost interest in anything Starmer says. The labour party are now firmly in a 'don't spook moderate tory voters' mindset and the reality is that no one really knows what Starmer and Labour will do once in govt. If I were to guess they'll spend the first year implementing technocratic reforms in the NHS and public services and then after that gradually start the spending taps despite what they're saying now. All this talk of there being no money is nothing more than an exercise in saying what most of the voters (erroneously) think.
The Labour party membership backs PR by a large majority. But why would the party leaders go for it when they feel they are likely to get a significant majority in the next GE.
There is also an assumption that LD will always side with Labour - that is not at all a given. Another Cameron style socially liberal Tory party is not unattractive to LDs especially if Labour have been in power. Not always a great move as the lat coalition demonstrated, but LDs would be a much bigger influence under PR. So could end up with LD deciding who is in Govt each election from a minority position
Finally the Labour Party is a coalition of Social Democrats and Democratic Socialists - I think it would split under PR as per most other European countries.
None of this particularly worries me. I guess the real concern would be the rise of the hard right getting Parliamentary representation
None of this particularly worries me. I guess the real concern would be the rise of the hard right getting Parliamentary representation
Not under current conditions imo. How political parties do in local elections gives a fair indication of how well they would do in Westminster under PR. People feel that they can vote in local elections without worrying too much about the possible negative effects of their vote.
The LibDems do far better in local elections than they do in Westminster elections, PR would massively increase their Westminster representation. Reform UK currently only have 6 councillors in the whole of the UK,such is their low level of support, PR imo would make no difference to their Westminster representation, they just don't enjoy sufficient support. I don't think that the BNP has ever had more than about 50 councillors, it has been years since they have had even one single councillor, it isn't feasible to assume that they would have a single MP under PR.
There would obviously be less Tory MPs under PR, they currently very much benefit from first-past-the-post.
https://twitter.com/JamesEFoster/status/1680554363012497408?t=3KqLZRWrxjygUBORbdJGxw&s=19
Like someone sat on a vast piggy bank and watching the country fall apart.
This guy absolutely doesn't deserve votes. He's worked at nothing. He couldn't be more regressive if he tried.
And on top of all this he's doing a great job of demonstrating that politicians are all the same.
Can't wait until Labour come back around our street again. And if John Mann turns up canvassing he will get a robust argument.
I'm on holiday currently and daren't even watch the interview for fear of ruining my day.
That comment from Starmer being happy if people think he's a fiscal conservative is very revealing. He's the ultimate political weathervane, and happy to branded as anything as long as that's what he thinks wavering voters are thinking. Same thing about his article in the Observer saying you can't spend your way out of trouble. This is the sort of thing voters say when they get sick of what they perceive 'their' taxes being wasted.
I have no idea whether Starmer actually is a fiscal conservative or not as he's said things that support and contradict that position. The only thing I'm certain of is that he has no ideological driver and will say and believe whatever he thinks will get him in power. Time to switch off and wait til the election I think, and then we'll know what he's really about.
Historically more strikes occur under Labour governments. Given the recent levels of industrial action (including those that have never been on strike before) I can't imagine people sitting on their hands with Starmer's promises of fiscally conservative growth and jam tomorrow. People have been taking real-term pay cuts for decades and I sincerely hope they fight their corner when this duplicitous ratbag eventually occupies No 10. You can't even trust his hair.
You can’t even trust his hair.
🤣
I have no idea whether Starmer actually is a fiscal conservative or not as he’s said things that support and contradict that position
God knows. He doesn't come across that sharp to me either. Like he's reading someone else's words.
Even Angela is joining in with the late night party of neoliberalism fixes all.
(Let's go to speak with mortgage brokers to solve cost of living issues ... What about the BoE that we own -who sets the rates me duck?)
It doesn't matter that much what Starmer is, as Wes Streeting says, no hope is better than false hope.
Once Starmer becomes Prime Minister, whether he likes it or not (and he won't like it) he will be held accountable. By both the Tory press and Labour voters.
I can't imagine that his life will be very comfortable when it becomes obvious that he has no plan beyond securing for himself the highest office in the land.
Historically more strikes occur under Labour governments
would that have been when we had nationalised industries, thus the govt was the employer?
I think he does have a plan, a Tory plan, instead of the Tory 'no magic money tree' we get 'reforms (privatisation), difficult decisions (austerity), can't spend your way out of a crisis (neo-liberalism)'. Anyone spot the difference? Nah, me neither.
dazhFull Member
I’ve totally lost interest in anything Starmer says. The labour party are now firmly in a ‘don’t spook moderate tory voters’ mindset and the reality is that no one really knows what Starmer and Labour will do once in govt. If I were to guess they’ll spend the first year implementing technocratic reforms in the NHS and public services and then after that gradually start the spending taps despite what they’re saying now. All this talk of there being no money is nothing more than an exercise in saying what most of the voters (erroneously) think
I really, really hope this is true
I also hope/fantasise that, if it isn't true, the LDs go full-on shit or bust in the following election and promise either PR or (perhaps "and") some version of reversal of Brexit as absolute promises - in fact they could stand as "we'll deliver PR and then call another general election within 6 months"
Also - this constant bullshit 'tough-choices' that Starmer keeps saying.
It's the people that have to make the tough choices, not the MPs.
It’s the people that have to make the tough choices, not the MPs.
The people don't make the choices - the people have to live with the choices the MPs make which if wrong are tough.
True, but you make a micro choice where you live, what job you take - what you can afford to be with or without.
Still tough.
This is heartbreaking. Labour will win the next GE and they could do all the things I want: Renationalise power, water, railways and the Royal Mail. Scrap Trident, HS2 and move as close as possible to Europe. However, they won't do any of those things. Truss cost the country far more than that lot would cost. WTF is wrong with this country? Labour will never win over the 'Gammons', so why try? I really don't know who to vote for. Green? too airy fairy. LD? More Tory light. No even vaguely Socialist party. I really despair. I've been voting for 50 years and this is the worst period for working people. Worse than Thatcher's reign.
this is the worst period for working people. Worse than Thatcher’s reign.
No doubt they will be saying that in another 30 years time. Hyperbole is timeless.
I see that Starmer is maintaining his No Hope agenda
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/16/labour-keep-two-child-benefit-cap-says-keir-starmer
Although despite no hope being better than false hope, according to Wes Streeting, there is still a hint of jam tomorrow in the article:
"However, one party insider suggested Starmer could revisit the policy if the public finances improved."
Well they've lost me at the moment, not that ot really matters as I'll be voting LD to kick the tories out here.
But my god could Labour be anymore depressing, an opportunity to be positive and provide hope and they keep spaffing goodwill away. They don't have to mimic the tories, the country is crying out for change not slightly diluted shite that we have now.
The interesting thing is that despite Labour having a 20% lead over the Tories in the polls what Starmer is fundamentally saying is that the Tories have won the economic arguments.
In his latest announcement concerning the two-child benefits cap Starmer is very clearly saying that he agrees with the Tories that Britian can't afford not to have it, even if it is the cause of increasing levels of poverty.
He uses exactly the same arguments as the Tories, like the Tories Starmer understands the hardship these policies will cause, and he wishes that he could do things differently, but right now unfortunately that isn't possible. The Tories will say exactly the same thing. Both Labour and the Tories regret that for the time being social injustice will remain necessary.
Of course there is a reason why Labour has a 20% lead over the Tories, it is because the Tories economic policies have failed. If there was no cost of living crises, no housing crises, no high inflation, etc, the Labour lead would be significantly smaller.
Tinkering with failed Tory economic policies won't magically make them work, so Starmer will focus on blaming the Tories for his own failings. He is already preparing the ground by saying if people are disappointed that he can't offer more than they should blame the Tories for leaving the country in such a mess, despite ironically agreeing with all their spending targets.
So basically copying the pig shagger. Awesome.
It is the biggest lie in politics that Government finances restrict the cost of anything.
We must all be morons to have existed through a pandemic (with many industries not generating) and to not have noticed no taxes were raised, or extra 'borrowing' that wasn't immediately offset by Q/E, and yet money was spent to solve a desperate time in our history.
It's not even the precedent either.
If they're going on the false idea of extra money in the exchequer then they will not get what they wish for.
Remember virtually zero growth before the pandemic and we only got through because of new money creation.
One of the 'biggest' upticks recently in GDP was down to GP spending. And where did that come from?
Labour are going to inherit a mess and nurture a mess.
I think it's fair to say that it is difficult to be particularly enthused by the Labour leader, but there are still bigger fish to fry here - are we saying that, because Starmer isn't Corbyn, or the leader of The SWP, we may as well give Sunak and his Band of Breakers another Five Year Plan?
Again, and with feeling, Starmer isn't the beginning and the end of the Labour Party. Can we at least hold a truce until they have the chance to disappoint us?
He and Reeves have given much advance warning of No Hope and disappointments under their tutelage. People imagine politically parties to be built on a set of principles whereas politicians like Starmer see the party as simply a vehicle with which to get elected and any/all pledges and promises can be dropped at will in 'My' Labour Party. Like Johnson they want the power and privilege of being elected to govern but have no vision beyond maintaining the status quo.
Harris makes a similar point
Keir Starmer is threatening to leave our crises unchanged. So what social forces will he unleash? | John Harris | The Guardian
Can we at least hold a truce until they have the chance to disappoint us?
The flaw in this argument is they have already done so. They had a lot of support initially but have been steadily pissing it away.
The other problem is that he is stacking the candidates list with people chosen for loyalty to his way of thinking. Which means that he is effectively the beginning and end of the labour party.
are we saying that, because Starmer isn’t Corbyn, or the leader of The SWP, we may as well give Sunak and his Band of Breakers another Five Year Plan?
Well, if you vote Labour then you're really voting for No Change. If you want them to sit up, take notice, and maybe rethink their approach then perhaps it's time to stop thinking in 5-year election cycles and look at the longer term picture. I'm reminded that Winnie Ewing was first elected to Westminster in 1967, 33 years after the SNP was formed, and it would be another 31 years before devolution was implemented. I'm not suggesting that your desires should be put on hold for that long but you perhaps get my drift. 😉
are we saying that, because Starmer isn’t Corbyn, or the leader of The SWP, we may as well give Sunak and his Band of Breakers another Five Year Plan?
FFS no one has even mentioned Corbyn. All we're talking about is Starmer doing basic labour things which will benefit the most disadvantaged such as the scrapping the two child benefits policy and/or providing universal free school meals. But he won't even do that because 'we can't afford it'. 🙄
TBH on the two-child policy I fully expect he'll get rid of it, but for now it's an easy issue for him to demonstrate his supposed fiscal conservatism and willingness to make 'tough decisions'. With a possible autumn election on the horizon having a battle with the leftwing of his party is good for him.
Well, if you vote Labour then you’re really voting for No Change.
No doubt the labour leadership will argue that people voted for whatever it is they campaign on and use that as a defence of the status quo (that's exactly what Blair argued). But as Ernie has said more than a few times, the minute Starmer is in power he will have a fight on with the wider party to do stuff that will help working people. The only source of hope for change is that the labour party will be powerful enough to force through progressive policies that Starmer and Reeves can't resist.
Being PM is always going to be a tricky task. With a population of circa 68 million you have almost as many views on what the right thing to do is. People with similar political leanings will agree about a number of things but not everything, let alone those with polar opposite political leanings. I feel there are several areas of our UK infrastructure that need a comprehensive overhaul and transformation - but how many "ordinary" people will be willing to vote for a party that will start that process, knowing that it's likely to take years to accomplish. Then tax system, NHS and social services are all areas that are currently broken that we keep adding and pulling off sticky plasters in the hope that no-one notices how fundamentally broken they are. Then add in the housing market, utilities and local services and that starts adding up quite quickly to a mountain of change that needs to happen. Easier to just pretend that a few tweaks here and there will keep it all ticking along.
Like many other posters on this thread, I genuinely don't know where I will vote at the next GE. To be fair, the last few elections have not been flush with positive options - but this time it feels more desperate. 🙁
Which means that he is effectively the beginning and end of the labour party.
This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
The seeds were sown long ago by the likes of Mandelson and Blair. The writing has been on the wall for many years thay Labour were no longer the party of working people.
The Jeremy Corbyn leadership was but a temporary, albeit serious, blip, aberration, away from the hijacking of the Labour Party by conservatives. Even I was fooled for a sort while, after years of giving up on Labour, of believing that perhaps it could be saved and re-established as the party which puts the interests of ordinary people first.
But the establishment and conservative sympathizers regrouped, fought back, regained control - through deceit, and are now more powerful and more in control than ever.
I remain however totally optimistic. Never in my lifetime, or probably in my grandparents lifetime, have the Tories been as discredited in the eyes of the electorate as they are today, something which I find hugely positive.
I am very much looking forward to a Labour government with a huge majority because although I don't believe that they have anything credible to offer it is important that they too are discredited in the eyes of the electorate.
As long as people believe that only a change of management is needed nothing will ever change.
I support Labour like a rope supports a hanged man. The critical issue imo is what ultimately fills the vacuum left by discredited mainstream parties.
Edit: I managed to quote both Churchill and Lenin in the same post.....cool 😎
Teachers got a better deal through industrial action and I expect the doctors will too, with absolutely no support or actual opposition from the LP. It would be naive in the extreme to think that Starmer will deliver anything without a fight but many people are learning that lesson. The history of all hitherto existing societies is the history of class struggle.
"But, given the state of the public finances, we will not be left with the money to simply service failure: it is reform or bust."
This paragraph from Starmer's piece in the Observer is probably the most depressing contortion I've ever heard from a senior Labour MP.
He should be taken to task on this logic. It's a total fabrication of reality.</p>
Public services are not created with reform. They are created with new money every time, and they are desperately underfunded.
It's not reform or bust. There is no universe where that makes sense.
(I've no idea why I keep getting formatting code in my posts it's driving me crackers.)
I remain however totally optimistic. Never in my lifetime, or probably in my grandparents lifetime, have the Tories been as discredited in the eyes of the electorate as they are today, something which I find hugely positive.
I don't think this will stick in the public minds.
5 years of Starmer nothingness and it will be back to the Tories.
5 years of Starmer [s]nothingness[/s] saying the Tories were right and it will be back to the Tories.
FTFY
I'll vote for Starmer (if I'm still in the UK) as I don't want 5 more years of these right wing libertarians in power any longer. Who knows he may have a more radical agenda once he wins. Hopefully the red wall will also vote labour unlike 2019 which let BoJos mob in.
What's the alternative, realistically?