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Cameron really has played a blinder, Johnson* is fuct, maybe he will step up and handle the task ahead of him, maybe
What worries me is that Im not even sure 2 years is enough time to disentangle 43 years of shared, laws, trade, regulations, its going to take an army of lawyers, probably a whole new department of the civil service and suck up a huge amount of the governments attention,
ultimately will our settlement have to be voted through by parliament?
*(or May or shudder-Gove or wretch-Fox)
yup JY the EEA Norway model is the ultimate example of an EU democracy deficit, it'd be funny if it wasnt such a mess, actually it is very funny !!!
as i said before , the difference with norway is that they can afford it and they share their wealth with their citizens .
we can afford it and the market is so beneficial even UKIP dont want to give it up
BOJO wont be PM to many Tries hate him it will be someone who no one really loves or hates - I don't know who this generation of tories John Major is but they get the crown
Who ever gets it is in deep trouble though as the dreams of millions of olk - I mean the leave voters who were swayed- are about to be shattered by a very harsh reality and they are not going to be popular.
They also need to be a country unity figure as I assume the tories will try to drag senior labour figures into the fold - I fear that Blair may appear in this role!!! IMagine Tiny Blair as our emissary to Europe !
Leave or Remain, this is worth a read [url= http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/06/14/can-the-united-kingdom-government-legally-disregard-a-vote-for-brexit/ ]http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/06/14/can-the-united-kingdom-government-legally-disregard-a-vote-for-brexit/[/url]
Note it was written before the referendum vote.
Essentially the referendum result is the first step on a long road that [b]may[/b] end in Brexit....
Edit: it may explain why the financial markets and Sterling didn't completely tank. The day Article 50 is invoked may be far worse
Sounds like we have many years of uncertainty ahead of us. I hope at least someone knows what they're doing - cos I haven't a clue 🙂
[quote=Junkyard ]Who ever gets it is in deep trouble though
The Tory Nick Clegg - or indeed the next William Hague (I have to admit I thought "winning" the 2010 election was a poisoned chalice, and I'm not sure this denouement can be claimed as justifying that, so my judgement on this isn't perfect!)
I fear that Blair may appear in this role!!! IMagine Tiny Blair as our emissary to Europe !
I was thinking it couldn't get worse 😯 Though maybe what we need is Brown to provide us with 5 tests to be met before leaving the EU - we're definitely leaving just as soon as we meet those.
[quote=dmorts ]Leave or Remain, this is worth a read ...
Essentially the referendum is the first step on a long road that may end in Brexit....
Not the only one - this was also written before the vote:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/there-is-an-incredible-theory-that-a-brexit-wont-actually-happen-even-if-the-public-votes-for-it-a7093381.html
...for which the original sauce appears to be:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-interview-peter-catterall-on-eu-brexit-2016-6
Dubliners must be rubbing their hands with glee as the last English-speaking low-tax capital in Europe.
Yep, Dublin and possibly Edinburgh will be the new capitals of US investment in Europe
aultimately will our settlement have to be voted through by parliament?
Nope there is option 3, no agreement so revert to wto deals for everything. The EU has to agree the deal too, if they don't we get nothing.
poah - Member
Yep this : it's written into European law so 2 years after article 50 is implemented the door shuts whether or not we get what we want
that goes both ways though - given the amount the EU /inports/exports to the UK and back, they won't want to be paying import/export tax on goods.
You really did get the smoke blown up there, we have less to bargain with. Striding into negotiations to leave thinking you hold all the cards is madness
and the losers will lose again
By far the biggest losers are those yet to comprehend that they are indeed losers.
So, that's basically anyone living in this bizarre fantasy land where St George will roar and we have the EU and the rest of the world over a barrel. Oh, and also those expecting immigration to reduce, living standards to increase, and new hospitals to pop up every week - it seems those three promises have already been reneged upon.
The more I read about this, the more I understand why DC is calling it a day and why, before the vote, "50 MP's signed a letter to say they would not challenge him as PM"
No one wants the job. It's a thankless exercise.
And he hopes he's not seen as the one who took the UK out of the EU.
Except he is. He promised the referendum in the first place and he only promised it in an attempt to win the general election.
The problem with article 50, is that it was put in to the Lisbon Treaty as a token gesture. There are no rules or guides on how to leave the EU as no one thought anyone would be stupid enough to leave in the first place.
We are politically integrated in to the EU in such a way, that it would take more than a life time to unpick all the laws, directives etc. And the cost of it would be monumental, employing vast teams of experts to do all this. So we are going to get a situation where it is simply easier to keep most of the EU directives anyway.
Taking back control is a fallacy, in the long term it is going to mean we actually have less control.
Its going to be interesting times
+1. Fascinating stuff. It's a shame about the nasty stuff being by many but I suppose it follows the tone of the entire campaign.
Who will be the next tory party leader? Will Corbyn survive? If not, Benn or Jarvis? Jarvis is a man I could vote for I think.
He gave the people the chance to vote and they voted. Apparently 51% of the voting population believe (for reasons other people may or may not agree with) that the country would be better off out of the EU. I can't believe that the 51% is made up entirely of fools (or racists or selfish people etc) so many millions of people clearly have a vision of a successful future for Britain outside of the EU?
Of course if the majority of the 51% IS made up of fools, racists and selfish people then we have bigger problems on our plate than whether to be in the EU or not.
It wasn't 100% turnout
37%He gave the people the chance to vote and they voted. Apparently 51% of the voting population believe
I can't believe that the 51% is made up entirely of fools (or racists or selfish people etc) so many millions of people clearly have a vision of a successful future for Britain outside of the EU
37%
Of course if the majority of the 51% IS made up of fools, racists and selfish people then we have bigger problems on our plate than whether to be in the EU or not.
Don't know if you feel better about that or not. 28% couldn't give a ****.
And this is why such a close result is decisive. If it went remain UKIP could keep bitching away in the corner and we could carry on. This being a 1 way door is the problem
Where did I get the 51 percent from? I thought I saw that number on the news.
By far the biggest losers are those yet to comprehend that they are indeed losers
Indeed a lot of left wing working class types just voted for some very right Tories and some folk so right wing they cannot join the tories on a "manifesto" to cut red tape and make us more competitive [ we all know this means shit on the workers and pay them less/have less rights] as a panacea that will end the "unelected remote elite" governing us
Its beyond parody.
They also probably split the UK in the process as I doubt scotland will be staying
51.8 (I think) result or a 72% turnout
I'm loving the Merkel is one of the few not losing her head over this and promoting calm http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36630326
Ah ok. so 51.8% of "the people to whom the vote meant enough for them to express a preference" (as the ladies shampoo adverts say) preferred to leave the EU.
So, of those people, surely they can't possibly all be fools . . . Etc?
I believe (and I might be wrong here) that once article 50 is invoked we have [u]up to[/u] two Years to negotiate our exit, any extension would need approval by all the other member states (not too likely).
the rumblings are that the EU leaders would like to beat that two year timescale and get shot of us sooner if possible, can't blame them really can you...
The main reason the UK should want to drag our feet now is because no bugger actually had a plan for this next part, far from uniting the country it has widened our divisions and both of the country's major parties are destabilising, our prime minister is off in three months and his successor will have to negotiate our exit, most of those currently in the running backed the out campaign but are any of them really a safe pair of hands?
We need time, pushing up the deadlines isn't going to help a thing...
Still at least we have "Taken back control" eh?
Given by the theme of
"what it's not all true"
"oh you never said it would be painful "
" I only ticked leave as a protest I didn't think it mattered"
Enough to make a difference are
@dmorts yes absolutely it was an advisory referendum, its not legally binding. That is one very important area where the Scottish Referendum differed, had that been 50.0001% Out vs 49.9999% In it would still have lead to an independent Scotland.
I and pthers asked Chris Grayling what guarantees we could have that the result would be respected. His reply was based on the integrety of governement and how such a move would split the Tories and thus be "unthinkable" I am more of a cynic and think its very possible
I dont think parliament will disrespect this result[ as half your potential voters now hate you]- some may well try- I guess they could if it was unanimous across all parties but that is not happening.
However they might make there be another vote based on
1) what leave manage to negotiate - this will look **** all like what they claimed they would get
2) the economy will have tanked - unlike what they said would happen and those experts may have had a point and polemic optimist will have been found to be an empty hope.
3) they will have realised save the NHS , red tape, Ed immigration was all a load of empty Bollocks
I am not sure it will really help as we just swap sides to whoever is bitter and we run the claim of having vites till we get the result we want
Unless enough leave voters start vocalising that they feel conned the result has to be respected.
A vote was held a result was given it has to be adhered and we have to look at how to unite a country that is divided on basically every line imaginable, education, wealth, age,class, geography, divided parties etc. We need to sort the mess out rather to squabble for the next two years.
I have largely stayed out of STW "debates", the one thing that wont happen here is consensus
Interesting to see the Lib Dems come straight out and say they will reverse the referendum result. Alas, they have zero chance of ever getting in to power.
Interesting to see the Lib Dems come straight out and say they will reverse the referendum result. Alas, they have zero chance of ever getting in to power.
I was going to post - If only there was a party completely untainted by the whole thing.... mostly by all having booked their summer holidays early and not wanting to miss out.
I dont think parliament will...as half your potential voters now hate you...
On the other hand, the Remain half might hate you for respecting it when legally and technically you could have ignored it and, in their eyes, saved the situation. Rock and a hard place perhaps?
mikewsmith >> Your really did get the smoke blown up there, we have less to bargain with. Striding into negotiations to leave thinking you hold all the cards is madness
I disagree, we have quite a large card to play. The other EU members want Article 50 invoked ASAP to give stability, but it's up to the UK when this is done. Delaying the invocation may twist a few arms. This will have to be balanced with there also being unstability in the UK.
Before the referendum, Michael Gove said it would be at least 2 years before Article 50 was invoked.
Remind me what power the UK has? It can piss off the people who have to sign off on the divorce? It can shaft itself on trade? The EU knows that the pro leave MP's will have to take some stuff they don't like back. The EU can live with a grumpy UK, can the UK live with a resolute EU looking after itself? Read Danny's points on how long it takes to sort tread deals out 10+ years.
Before the referendum, Michael Gove said it would be at least 2 years before Article 50 was invoked.
So 2 years before we discuss what will happen, then 2 to do the negotiations = 4 years of uncertainty in the UK, how much investment will their be in that time? how much EU grant money coming out way (while still paying out full memebership)
jambalaya >> @dmorts yes absolutely it was an advisory referendum, its not legally binding. That is one very important area where the Scottish Referendum differed, had that been 50.0001% Out vs 49.9999% In it would still have lead to an independent Scotland.
Also remember the SNPs white paper on an independent Scotland? Quite a large document. Why has there not been similar from Leave?
Because no one knows what Leave would be.
The UK has nothing to negotiate with. The UK had power in the EU. It was until last week effectively one third of the EU (the other two being Germany and France). As a soveireign nation in the EU we made the rules. Now we're moving rapidly away from the tent. Hell soon we won't even be close enough for the proverbially leak, merely waving our willy like a perverted old drunk while the rest of the world crosses the road in shame and embarrassment!
mikewsmith >> Remind me what power the UK has? It can piss off the people who have to sign off on the divorce?
So what, it's not like they won't sign because they're pissed off
mikewsmith >> So 2 years before we discuss what will happen
No, not at all. Discussions with the 2yr clock ticking will not be favourable to the UK. We may see some discussions and a 2nd referendum on the outcome of those yet
Sure find me something the UK has a powerful position on?
I disagree, we have quite a large card to play.
no, we have one card... and it ain't a high card, and those holding the aces know we dont have a high card.
It's the 6th biggest economy in the world!
Until we "sign" article 50, we're still part of the EU, still pay our money, still receive funding in return, and still part of making the rules, decisions and vote on issues. The only thing that has changed on the EU side is attitudes of other countries in that they may be less likely to side with us on things.
The referendum only did one thing regarding the EU and that was indicate an attitude of the British public.
nedrapier - Member
It's the 6th biggest economy in the world!
5 of diamonds? Could be the 7th before the negotiation starts.
The only thing that has changed on the EU side is attitudes of other countries in that they may be less likely to side with us on things.
Not necessarily. Particularly with upcoming elections. You may find we're not short of supporters.
Why has there not been similar from Leave?
The SNP is a political party with a position of pwoer and the ability to form a government. As such they could prepare a manifesto.
What the Leave campaign was based upon was control. For the ability of whatever government we elect to run our country as we see fit. As I said its the Government in 2020 who will have the reigns to determine our future outside the EU
Except our government had control. A cursory look at the European and UK legislative process would show you that...
mikewsmith >> Sure find me something the UK has a powerful position on?
The speed of the exit.
At this point we should play poker...