The modelling suggests that keeping them off school has very little influence on the spread and deaths for covid19
Could you show your working out on that?
I don’t know why I chose that quote out of so many above, but I’d love to know the answer too! There are so many issues regarding restarting schools, that I truly cannot see what should be done. Until we have a fairly accurate idea how much Covid19 is in communities and the facility to test, track and isolate effectively, schools cannot imho be reopened safely.
There are a lot of comments above based upon, what I would consider a flakey interpretation of the science we’ve been hearing develop over recent weeks. Why anyone would bother saying “just teach a few classes in the local pubs, as they’re shut”, I do not know.
I only work part time, but I have been working hard to try and make this new arrangement work. Others I know (particularly those with young children) have been finding it much harder to juggle their work, with other commitments. I despair too of the quick Googling of any suitable resource that appears to tick a box - but I think this (to the extent that it is true, which may be relatively small) is in part due to: an urgency to get resources available, the vast workload, and to the huge changes and focus on matters other than actual teaching that have led in recent years to teachers having less and less time for quality preparation.
to;dr - listen to a_a his posts clearly show someone who has vast experience of what goes on in schools, and what is required to teach properly.
We are delivering the full normal timetable via teams. Private school so that is 0845-1730 Monday-Friday and Saturday mornings too. It blooming hard work reinventing the wheel overnight - I'm Suddenly a twin screen, webcam totting premiere pro ninja. Currently knocking out 23 hours of digital material a week whilst being pastoral lead to 100 students and their families. Kids are also getting a choice of 47 virtual activity clubs and two assemblies. From next week 'bridging' courses for yr11 into A level and yr13 into degree level begin. This weekend I'm self filming then editing a 20min virtual assembly for 600 kids and their families. As a fee paying school we (or the powers that be) are hugely concerned we will fold unless enough parents cough up for the term and those of us left not furloughed are all hands to the pump.
Got to confess I think I'm as busy as I've ever been in normal life, arguably busier. The time period I'm not looking forward to is trying to run a socially distanced school for a couple of year group that feels worth coming back for whilst giving a similar virtual experience to the one they are getting now for the year groups left at home. Not quite sure how that is going to be possible.
I have also no idea how a socially distanced half full school is meant to function. Classrooms are a tiny part of the problem. To my mind I'm not convinced it is worth even attempting it - just accept the year group you bring back and the the staff running the place are not socially distanced but only start opening when that can be considered ok from a science perspective and hospitals can handle the infection increase that will come with it.
We are delivering the full normal timetable via teams. Private school so that is 0845-1730 Monday-Friday and Saturday mornings too. It blooming hard work reinventing the wheel overnight – I’m Suddenly a twin screen, webcam totting premiere pro ninja.
And this is one of the major differences between private and state education.
We have going on for 35% of students with allegedly no access to a computer and/or internet at home (other than a phone, but that presents a whole other set of issues)
...plus parent IT literacy is really poor, and at this particular school students don't have a school email or access to office365. Makes it all quite tricky!
And this is one of the major differences between private and state education.
We have going on for 35% of students with allegedly no access to a computer and/or internet at home (other than a phone, but that presents a whole other set of issues)
Agreed - there is simply no way you could deliver what we are if the students were not privileged enough to have the ability to access it. This is going to stretch the social divide even further.
Ability AND appetite for it.
Parents who are paying for education are far more likely to ensure students engage in the work!
Problems arise when (as is the case in my school) more than one subject class is on at the same time. This would necessitate whole scale timetable changes, which then has knock-on effects elsewhere.
The problems would be huge. On top of this, several teachers have underlying health issues that I presume would mean they would not be safe to return. I have worked for long periods recently being a couple of members of the department down, the effects on teaching and added workload are huge.
Staggered days may be something of an idea, but I fear that the amount of productive teaching going on at these times will be sadly small.
Also, the 2m distance thing, has been talked about so often that people appear to think that there’s something magical about this distance. However, I struggle to believe that it applies to small, poorly ventilated rooms, in which people are spending their entire working day. The viral load in the room could be huge and who would know?
I am fairly confident that relatively few people value education more than I do. However, the distance learning will improve, hopefully to a point where it will be on a par to a partial return, if not better. And, it seems that children’s education is not the driving force to reopen schools, for those who seem to want it most urgently.
I supply teach early years in ‘inadequate’ schools. A socially distant classroom is hard to imagine, but so are these children’s home lives. It’s a tough circle to square.
As a parent of 2 kids that have been lifelong home educated (not home-schooled but that's perhaps a different argument), I've been watching this ongoing debate with interest.
It's becoming laid bare that school is as much about increasing GDP, by allowing two working parents, as it is about education.
Does it really take 11 years of compulsory education in school to obtain a maths GCSE? My son went from informal education to a GCSE in 4 months.
In the long term perhaps we'll take a good look at why it's suddenly necessary for kids to spend most of their formative years in an institution.
School, in my opinion, is all about micromanaging a child's learning experience when my experience is very much that learning is what children do naturally in the right environment. Perhaps in the future, we'll focus on establishing the right environment rather than the school process.
Of course, that'll mean the welfare of the population will take priority over the GDP so that'll never happen....
I think some people want to stay in lock down until the virus is eradicated, or a vaccine is found, but I don’t think it’s possible.
My understanding was that current "lockdown" measures were only ever intended to mitigate the pressure on services/infrastructure (such as NHS) in the short to medium term and that once we were past the Bow-wave of CV19 cases limited reopening of businesses and schools could start (not necessarily all at once though) under the assumption that there would be further cases.
Half the problem is that the various daily graphs are all starting to show a downwards trend, but no measure, number or percentage has ever been publicly stated for when current measures can be reduced or even what the projected sequence of events would be at that point.
The trouble being that people like "certainty" and easy to understand, hard & fast rules, in the absence of that though any downturn on a graph is taken as an early indication that we'll be back to business as usual inside a couple of weeks. It doesn't mean that at all though does it...
From my understanding of the modelling, opening schools only has a low impact if proper social distancing can take place in the schools. Does that sound about right to folk?
No idea, who actually said that?
Any modelling will obviously have to come with some assumptions about how such things are going to be done, and the national/regional models (if there are such things) will include some more assumptions about what proportion of schools become a focal point for a localised outbreak probably.
It's sort of inevitable that whenever you send kids back that will lead to at least some increase in localised CV19 outbreaks... It's almost funny, a week ago we were discussing Contact tracing apps, now people can't wait to reopen potential schools which to my mind are ready made contact focal points...
The truth might simply be that they've never modelled infection prevention, but looked more at staggering/controlling/managing infection spread. With a simpler goal of not overwhelming public services, and ideally allowing some economic activity to pick up again.
A resumption of schooling would logically be area by area, and might well be based on the knowledge that the return of kids to school carries an XX% chance of initiating a surge in CV19 cases amongst a given local community...
If you want to know when your kids are going back to school, maybe look at how your local NHS services are coping?
My own uninformed musings...
Agreed – there is simply no way you could deliver what we are if the students were not privileged enough to have the ability to access it. This is going to stretch the social divide even further.
Homework is well known to increase the attainment gap between rich and poor, this will be doing that with bells on!
It’s almost funny, a week ago we were discussing Contact tracing apps, now people can’t wait to reopen potential schools which to my mind are ready made contact focal points…
But if you can isolate the parents of those groups of children, the parents become the firebreak. All the kids have been at home for 5-6 weeks, so are free of the virus. Only a random element introduced to the mix, such as a parent who works in the NHS or on public transport or in an Amazon warehouse. Maintain the lockdown/work from home, but allow the schools to return. It should make little difference to the virus spread. Keep randomly testing the kids and as soon as more than one shows positive, close the school and send the kids home for 4 weeks to isolate with the parents.
All the kids have been at home for 5-6 weeks, so are free of the virus.
They’ve not, and they might not be! Kids have been socially distanced for 5+ weeks but not necessarily at home, they can exercise, some are going to schools/hubs, some are going to shops, they are mingling with parents and some are inevitably ignoring the rules. So the kids aren’t “sterile”, and neither are their teachers.
Only a random element introduced to the mix, such as a parent who works in the NHS or on public transport or in an Amazon warehouse.
or a supermarket, a police officer, prison officer, court official, social worker, refuse collector, manufacturing medical supplies, for phone or energy suppliers, delivery services etc. etc. there’s a massive number of pupils where at least one parent is going to be leaving the house regularly to keep the country running and so potentially exposing the child, and therefore all his classmates.
Given that we may never have a vaccine, what are folks alternative plans then?
How long do you think home schooling and parents unable to go to work can be sustained?
My max teaching load is 26 periods but I reckon to allow for some semblance of social distancing it would have to go to 44 periods of teaching. So half in half out and those out will need meaningful work. So each weeks normal teaching will take 2 weeks.
The question is what is meaningful. We have a high number 30+% in the most deprived 10% in Scotland. I have classes just now where 1/16 is engaging and of the parents 4/16 are signed up to notifications. I know one of these kids is the oldest of 8, he's 14, and mum has a habit and his dad is in the big hoose.
From the Lancet on 06th April.
School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review
In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2–4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.
There are so many issues with that Lancet piece, that imho it’s pretty worthless and should not be read out of context of the whole review, for fear of being very misleading (not that it is any area of expertise I have, but it raises a lot of questions about their assertions).
It’s becoming laid bare that school is as much about increasing GDP, by allowing two working parents, as it is about education.
Are you living in a bubble? Do you really think that all kids have parents capable of teaching them to GCSE level, and preparing them for life beyond school age, without professional assistance? This “right environment” you speak of, do all kids have access to that? And equipment? Books? Social contact? Actually, how sure are you that your kids do/did?
“Young children are not infected and do not transmit the virus,” he said. “They just don’t have the receptors to catch the disease
they do get infected and they do have the receptor. No idea where that bloke is getting his information but the ACE-II receptor is an important immune regulator. In older people it is down-regulated so they don't get the same control over inflammation.
Given that we may never have a vaccine, what are folks alternative plans then?
How long do you think home schooling and parents unable to go to work can be sustained?
I for one have no idea, not even a gut feeling really. I advocated being more proactive in closing schools in early February and now would be happier for them to stay closed until we know a few more things about the virus and the state of the pandemic in the country.
Before the schools reopen (this is off the top of my head so forgive me any obvious omissions) I would like to know:
How many people are currently infectious/infected?
More about the robustness of the 2m distancing and the effects of enclosed spaces
Are we equipped to test and trace?
How are children effected by the virus? the talk about toxic shock syndrome is slightly concerning, they said it was rare, but is that because it’s so new?
How children may be asymptomatic but able to spread the disease or not?
What PPE is appropriate
... so many more possible questions
Sorry, I guess what I’m thinking is I’d like to see a lot more accurate information. A lot more honest discussion of what we are trying to achieve. And a realistic plan of action, that people like a_a who’ve walked the walk can say with realistic optimism “ this might be achievable.
From the Lancet on 06th April.
School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review
Only read the bit you posted, but but comes across as complete bollocks. This virus is novel hence we have no data to use in a model.
FWIW in Spain the schools are basically going to stay closed until September, and we're a week or two ahead of you back in the UK (from a Covid19 curve point of view). They'll be opening up for disadvantaged kids to get school meals and access to IT, but all classes are online.
it will need a totally new timetable which always takes weeks of work by a few people and is then handed out to teachers to look for errors and then redone over and over
I always find this amusing / bewildering. My wife has the same problem every year at her school, and it's stupid. It's really not that complicated a problem to solve on a computer, you could calculate it quite simply in a nothing more than an Excel document, but every year it's the same story, hours and hours wasted drawing up a timetable. Having to give classes online has simply made it more obvious to the general public, but the sheer lack of basic IT knowledge in the educational sector is something that has needed to be addressed for years.
Lancet has form for poor science, which is different to medical reporting.
We, Scottish secondary, are due to change to new timetable 1stjune. I asked management if there was a plan if full new timetable couldn't be implemented under "old" normal conditions.
Answer was, "wash your hands more". I seriously think August is return date with a national statement on how it's to be done.
Although not from Swinney, he's suggesting that the holidays be cut to 4 weeks. Given that I'm in a hub on a rota through the holidays. He can shove that where the sun don't shine.
Can’t help but notice an increase of chatter in the Press about kids going back to school.
Ignore. They've got very little apart from CV19 to write/broadcast about. You'll get a better insight on here to be quite honest.
I always find this amusing / bewildering. My wife has the same problem every year at her school, and it’s stupid. It’s really not that complicated a problem to solve on a computer, you could calculate it quite simply in a nothing more than an Excel document
It is done on a computer using specific timetabling software, the problem is making sure the person/people doing it understand all the parameters, for example which mfl teachers can do a level french or german, which science teachers can teach triple chemistry or a level biology or whatever, which subjects need to be time tabled in a computer room, which teachers are part time and which days can they work etc. If you could do it as quick as a flash get in touch with some schools a lot of them out source time tabling and pay the people a lot of money to do it.
Spain the schools are basically going to stay closed until September,
Not sure if it applies to the whole of Spain, but when my nephews in Valencia were at school, by this time of year they were almost finished anyway- May/June were half days and I think they finished by the end of June.
the sheer lack of basic IT knowledge in the educational sector is something that has needed to be addressed for years
In order to address it you would need to actually invest in systems that worked in the first place. In order to set work from home my school were able to provide me with a memory stick before we shut down, I dont even have a work laptop.
But if you can isolate the parents of those groups of children, the parents become the firebreak.
The operative word in that sentence being 'if'...
The simple truth being "parents" are a very mixed bunch, some might be homeworking some will be front line NHS and the age range and health status is going to vary. you can't isolate the parents from their kids at home, you can't guarantee isolation between the kids in school.
If the kids are back in school it's certain a proportion of parents will relax their own isolation, so you're almost certainly opening up a route for CV19 to spread within a community.
My point was that this may actually be the intent behind any school reopening. The assumption being that the population affected will be primarily kids in the 5-18 year range and parents in the 22-45ish range, allegedly more resilient groups. Of course that assumes zero contact with more vulnerable people like grandparents or people with longer term conditions.
I don't believe those secondary contacts can be accurately modelled and the longer the time line gets the more those isolations will break down. Its not as simple as people think...
I see a couple of factors at play here.
1. At some point the schools have to go back and the workplace has to reopen. It might look a little different but it has to happen. And unless the virus has been eradicated (no), a vaccine has been developed and administered (also no) or we can keep very clear social distance (no again), then there will be a risk. The government, rightly IMO opinion, will be weighing up the number of extra cases against the economic risks, it will be 100% safe to get everyone back.
2. Is social issues. As already touched on, the majority of people on here have enough money for an internet connection, food on the table and a grand or 2 of bikes. I don't doubt there are exceptions but I'd be confident in saying that is true for a majority. I'd also suggest that the vast majority will be treating their kids well and trying to educate them as best they can. But, we are not everyone. There are a whole load of kids to whom school is a safe place that they don't have at home, and they need school back ASAP, they need the support it brings, the hot meals and the staff around them. They aren't getting educated at home. There are also parents who are struggling and having the kids at school for a few hours every day will hugely help them as well.
The current way of life can't and won't go on forever, and I see the schools going back as a priorty.
I always find this amusing / bewildering. My wife has the same problem every year at her school, and it’s stupid. It’s really not that complicated a problem to solve on a computer, you could calculate it quite simply in a nothing more than an Excel document, but every year it’s the same story, hours and hours wasted drawing up a timetable.
The naivety in this comment ensures that pretty much everything you say on the subject is worth ignoring.
Indeed!
The naivety in this comment ensures that pretty much everything you say on the subject is worth ignoring.
Really? It's a pretty simple problem, there aren't that many variables in it. a_a has pointed out some of them, what class needs what room, the distance between classes, etc. It's a machine learning problem, optimising resource allocation for a given set of constraints - and there's nothing particularly new about it.
BTW I'm not in any way blaming the teachers, it's a chronic lack of investment in training and IT support that's to blame here. My wife's also having to try and work from home, using an old laptop we have and the outdated Spanish LEA software. My point is that the sudden dependence on IT has made it obvious the problems we already had.
There are a whole load of kids to whom school is a safe place that they don’t have at home, and they need school back ASAP, they need the support it brings, the hot meals and the staff around them. They aren’t getting educated at home.
These kids are already going in.
This is not really an argument to re-open schools to the others.
From the Lancet on 06th April.
School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including...a_a replied:
Only read the bit you posted, but but comes across as complete bollocks. This virus is novel hence we have no data to use in a model.
I have to say A_A you have a much better way of getting across what you mean, than I can manage. That’s perhaps what I should have said.
loum
Member
There are a whole load of kids to whom school is a safe place that they don’t have at home, and they need school back ASAP, they need the support it brings, the hot meals and the staff around them. They aren’t getting educated at home.These kids are already going in.
This is not really an argument to re-open schools to the others.
They're not going in though, their parents can't be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can't fall under the radar.
I'm with Lunge on this. It has to happen, and it probably has to happen before many of us would like.
The need for proper testing/track and trace to enable it to happen sooner and more safely appears to have passed by our glorious leaders
I’m with Lunge on this. It has to happen, and it probably has to happen before many of us would like.
This clearly doesn’t ‘have’ to happen. Also, ’before many of us would like’ covers a big spectrum of options.
Five-year-old child among latest UK coronavirus deaths
However the child had underlying health conditions. I believe the youngest person without any underlying conditions to die in the UK was a 13 yr old boy, however it is still very unlikely to happen statistically.
They’re not going in though, their parents can’t be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can’t fall under the radar.
This. And when social services can't get access because they're "in quarantine" it just gets worse. The kids going to school are the ones who's parents give a crap, the others, unsurprisingly, aren't.
apologies, my iPad has suddenly become possessed.
2. Is social issues. As already touched on, the majority of people on here have enough money for an internet connection, food on the table and a grand or 2 of bikes. I don’t doubt there are exceptions but I’d be confident in saying that is true for a majority. I’d also suggest that the vast majority will be treating their kids well and trying to educate them as best they can. But, we are not everyone. There are a whole load of kids to whom school is a safe place that they don’t have at home, and they need school back ASAP, they need the support it brings, the hot meals and the staff around them. They aren’t getting educated at home. There are also parents who are struggling and having the kids at school for a few hours every day will hugely help them as well.
The current way of life can’t and won’t go on forever, and I see the schools going back as a priorty.
When this pandemic is over and we look to how we move forward as a country (yeah, right) perhaps we might look at greatly reducing social inequality. Because, the idea that we can have such huge inequalities and can ‘narrow the gap’ and protect the vulnerable with a few actions taken in schools is insulting to people’s intelligence. It truly grates to hear politicians in power and anyone who supports them arguing for an urgent reopening of schools to protect the disadvantaged!
They’re not going in though, their parents can’t be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can’t fall under the radar.
That's just bollox.
You can see from the thread that those who can't be arsed with lockdown any more are crying out for a return to free childcare. The best thing that can happen before getting that first can of Stella cracked is getting the kids out the way.
Our school is 5min walk from the main hospital.
The one's with places that aren't going in are the keyworkers kids , doing everything they can to rotate shifts and avoid that extra contamination risk. They're not all going back before September whatever Boris says.
However the child had underlying health conditions. I believe the youngest person without any underlying conditions to die in the UK was a 13 yr old boy, however it is still very unlikely to happen statistically
The point of my post was to show that kids can get it, as opposed to the swiss guy who said they cant. The fact that this child tragically died just made it easier to google a confirmed case in a child.
Really? It’s a pretty simple problem, there aren’t that many variables in it. a_a has pointed out some of them, what class needs what room, the distance between classes, etc. It’s a machine learning problem, optimising resource allocation for a given set of constraints – and there’s nothing particularly new about it.
The variables are enormous and frequently human.
For example - a tiny example from a myriad of simultaneous similar senarios.....
I am in a weekly meeting with 10 other pastoral staff. It happens once a week in a timetabled lesson slot. Of the 11 staff involved 10 are teachers, teaching in 8 different depts. We all need to be free at the same time. If you attend that meeting you are clearly unable to teach a lesson happening at that time. But if you can't teach at that time you also cant teach the remainder of the classes that class has at other times of the week. Some year groups have one double period per subject per week, some 2, some 3 and some 4 so the option group intertwine over the top of each other. Sometimes the person in that meeting is the only person with the skillset to teach a specific subject so the class has to move, sometimes not. To move a lesson so it does not clash with the meeting might mean that the lesson clashes with another subject that the student is doing. To reassign the class to someone who is free then might mean they are unable to teach another class. Or the person the class is reassigned to is part time and not contracted to teach when another lesson the class has at another point in the week. To move a class in some subjects means you are competing for finite resources like science labs and Design workshops. A finite size of dining hall means an eye needs to be kept on the total teaching happening so that enough students can be free to go to one of the lunch sessions.
A small school - 87 teaching staff, part and full time (PT with different contracted hours) as well as job shares and negotiated flexibility for those returning from mat leave as well as 26 teachers working in multiple departments. 500 students. 52 different combinations of A level subjects within the current cohorts, 67 combinations of different GCSE subjects currently being taken. There is always contract renegotiation with PT staff and difficult conversations with parents/students when subject combinations fail to be possible to get a best fit.
As A_A says there are software solutions to help (our timetabler does use excel, but also uses the telephone as a tool for the job) with this and as is manifest by the thousands and thousands of schools that successfully achieve it every year, it is clearly a riddle that can be solved but to dismiss it as a cinch is to fail to understand the nuance.
For context a colleague's husband is a 6 figure salary JIT factory planning specialist who is familiar enough with the brief that he does not dismiss it as a few minutes with an excel sheet. It is also worth bearing in mind that the member of staff given the role of sorting it will be doing so on top of a full timetable minus a couple of periods a week and an extra couple of £K.
What is the point of social distancing in a relatively enclosed area where children are to be present for 6-7 hours per day?
Isn’t social distancing mainly intended to be effective for periods of interaction <15 minutes?
They’re not going in though, their parents can’t be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can’t fall under the radar.
That’s just bollox.
It very much isnt, schools are currently open for key worker kids and vulnerables, many/majority of those vulnerables are not coming in.
To the poster who thinks time tabling will be easy, go for it you can earn good money doing it as many schools outsource.
