Scotland Indyref 2

big_n_daft - Member
'The reality is she is astoundingly unpopular.'
I think that Scottish politics is so polarised that the "antis" are noisy whoever is looked at

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Wonder how it would go if the Tories put a no to indeyref2 in their manifesto for June? With all the backtracking would that guarantee there being one next year?

Why put that in the manifesto @rene ? May said no Indy2 until Brexit done, also most likely ask SNP for an explicit commitment and win at next Holyrood election. Anyway the UK GE pushes the SNP agenda further off the front page. There simply is no time.

Jamba stuff like that ^^^^ is a great help please post more often

gordimhor - Member
Jamba stuff like that ^^^^ is a great help please post more often

Let's try something for everyone to think about.

Will Scotland establish the first EU dictatorship if SNP won all the seats? 😀

Will Scottish people want to be dictated by SNP if there is no opposition in the Scottish parliament? 😛

It's a GE Chewy - the MPs elected don't sit in the Scottish Parliament

Don't confuse him further.

I see the BBC has given up on trying to put a spin on stories and has now resorted to just flat out lying.

431 - 425 does not equal -7

STV

SNP: 431 (+7)
Scottish Conservatives: 276 (+164)
Scottish Labour: 262 (-133)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 67 (-3)
Scottish Greens: 19 (+5)
Independents: 172 (-26)

BBC

SNP: 431 (-7)
Scottish Conservatives: 276 (+164)
Scottish Labour: 262 (-133)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 67 (-3)
Scottish Greens: 19 (+5)
Independents: 172 (-26)

What a disgrace Labour have become. Embarrassing.

I see the BBC has given up on trying to put a spin on stories and has now resorted to just flat out lying.

431 - 425 does not equal -7

Boundary changes.

SNP have more councillors than last time, but if the two elections were with the same rules then the SNP would have lost seats.

It's hardly flat out lying when they clearly state this at the top of the table

Boundary changes have occurred in many councils in Scotland. Seat change is based on notional 2012 results, which estimate what the results would have been then if the new boundaries had been in place.

It's an odd way to do it, though - and the wildly different answers shows that making up a non-existent election to compare this election to is a fun exercise for statisticians but doesn't really tell you anything about reality.

Though for statistical optimism you really have to admire the Labour person who claimed that Labour did well in Glasgow because their percentage vote share was up on 2015 😀

With the media, though, it really does seem that they like the "resurgent Scottish Tories" story and are going to run with that, even when it's not reflected by reality.

Then there's the Herald's epic bit of spin here:

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There's a useful rule that any headline that has things in quotes is 'almost always bollocks'

Boundary changes.

SNP have more councillors than last time, but if the two elections were with the same rules then the SNP would have lost seats.

It's hardly flat out lying when they clearly state this at the top of the table

Yes and I'm very much looking forward to someone (anyone) explaining the methodology that meant these boundary changes resulted in a 14 seat swing against the SNP while every other party's totals remained the same.

Or is boundary changes just another word for magic wand?

Quote marks you say 😉

To be fair to Labour, their objective may well not be anything other than still existing. They know they're in for a rough time. The only time I saw a labour candidate was at the polling station. He looked well tanned, guess he's got a lot of time for gardening.

For the conservatives, they have done really well considering how many see them, and it's hard to not view it as a significant increase, you could almost call it a surge. Cant see them doing much better than this.

The sinking spin is standard issue spin (plenty on wings to compare with). Can't really see how any things changed as a result of the locals.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the total number of votes for the SNP is up as well as the number of seats won. I expected to see an overall SNP decline because they hardly campaigned at all, and did not put up a load of candidates in many regions where they could have had more of the vote.

The way the BBC is spinning it is lying, plain and simple.

There's no question or if or but or different boundaries etc, these are the seats that were campaigned for, not those of the previous boundaries.

The Tory gains have been made at the expense of Labour, and that probably represents the total hardcore Unionist support in Scotland. The good news is it's smaller than I thought it would be.

I don't know how Labour in Scotland are going to spin it, but if they want to survive in Scotland they are going to have to get behind independence or wither away to LibDem irrelevance.

I can't see them changing their ways though because they are really just a pseudo Scottish party controlled from London HQ.

They can prove me wrong in that by having a local leadership coup and coming out for independence. (They'll probably have the coup, but complete their death throes by going the other way)

I'm not sure how many more labour supporters will jump ship to the tories. I would imagine all the soft labour voters, lib dem voters, and voters who are so died in the wool unionist that they would be prepared to hold their noses and vote tory have already done so. In which case the GE is looking pretty safe for the SNP.

On the other hand there may actually be some momentum for the tories and there are more votes to be gathered. After all, their support is still below Thatcher's at its lowest, maybe there's more to come.

There's a useful rule that any headline that has things in quotes is 'almost always bollocks'

True. 😉

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15269006.___Clear__victory__for_SNP_as_party_sees_more_councillors_voted_into_office_than_2012/?ref=mr&lp=13

10/10 for SNP spin, even Robertson was talking up his local council "victory" where the SNP majority is now just 1. He is a definite loser come 8th June.

The story North of the border is all about the Tory resurgence following on from the Scottish elections, now local and the clear trend which is going to give the Tories more Westmister MPs North of the border. The SNP got a reduced majority at Holyrood and will have fewer Westminster MPs

IndyRef 2 was killed off by the EU Referendum really. The weak economic case is now dire.

On the other hand there may actually be some momentum for the tories and there are more votes to be gathered. After all, their support is still below Thatcher's at its lowest, maybe there's more to come.

This is something that worries me tbh. By becoming a legitimate opposition they may find further support.

I think I'm preferring to pretend to myself that's not possible for the moment.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the total number of votes for the SNP is up as well as the number of seats won. I expected to see an overall SNP decline because they hardly campaigned at all, and did not put up a load of candidates in many regions where they could have had more of the vote.

Has anyone got the final numbers for the popular vote in Scotland? They are oddly difficult to find.

what's the breakdown on actual numbers of people voting for each part, not seats. Can't find it anywhere.

Curious to see is labour seats going directly to the tories, is much the same in absolute numbers, and I want to see actual numbers voting SNP. And I would like to see percentage breakdowns?

Anyone came across that yet?

BruceWee - Member

Has anyone got the final numbers for the popular vote in Scotland? They are oddly difficult to find.

btw, let the tories spin this as a win for them all they like (rather than just the collapse of labour and unionists polarising behind the tories).

Hopefully encourage a backlash come the GE.

Biggest question for me in this, is since labours unionist vote is obviously deserting them, how much longer can they actually continue being a unionist party?

jambalaya - Member
The SNP got a reduced majority at Holyrood

www.renfrewshire.gov.uk/2017LocalGovResults

My council shows number of 1st preferential votes for each candidate. I suspect the data is out there for all councils. Why it's not reported on I can only guess it's because it doesn't fit with the agenda.

IndyRef 2 was killed off by the EU Referendum really.

The EU vote * is the ONLY reason we and the SNP are having this debate.
Anyone who says different has spectacularly failed to understand a rather simple point.

* especially as Scotland voted to stay

BBC Scotland News - So a victorious night for the Tories in the Scottish council elections. And now sport where Aberdeen are celebrating winning the Scottish league after finishing 30 points behind Celtic.

(stolen from facebook)

Just about sums it up.

I don't think you can easily actually get meaningful numbers because of the way the vote works. Remember you voted 1 to x in order of preference, but didn't have to use all numbers. So it isn't easy to count them all up and translate into direct support for one party or another.

My advice to 1st Minister Sturgeon is to increase her campaign for independence. She should keep talking about it at every opportunity and by using harsh comments towards PM May. Then she should hammer the Scottish people for independence as much as possible. 🙂

scoob67 - Member
BBC Scotland News - So a victorious night for the Tories in the Scottish council elections. And now sport where Aberdeen are celebrating winning the Scottish league after finishing 30 points behind Celtic.

dragon - Member
I don't think you can easily actually get meaningful numbers because of the way the vote works. Remember you voted 1 to x in order of preference, but didn't have to use all numbers. So it isn't easy to count them all up and translate into direct support for one party or another.

Chewk has arisen - puts kettle on.

Chewk is a slavering ****ing idiot

scoob67 - Member
Chewk has arisen - puts kettle on.

beinbhan - Member
Chewk is a slavering **** idiot

edit:

Then she should hammer the Scottish people for independence as much as possible.

Though for statistical optimism you really have to admire the Labour person who claimed that Labour did well in Glasgow because their percentage vote share was up on 2015

I heard Dianne Abbott claimed they won 20,000 seats in Scotland.

On the other hand there may actually be some momentum for the tories

Scotland has generally been conservative (little c) and votes only changed after Thatcher (whether she deserved the blame or not is another debate, which could last another 100 pages).

With Labour in disarray and the Conservatives not being as toxic as they once were, it isn't entirely surprising that the Tory vote is up. That it appears, on the face of it, to be Labour votes they are picking up is curious (unless Labour are going to the SNP and SNP voters are going to the Tories).

I've seen reports that first preference votes for the SNP are up 70k on 2012 but not seen the data.

[url= http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15270068.Orange_Order_elected_to_councils_as_Labour_and_Tory_members/ ]With friends like these...[/url]

In other news (or lack of it), I'm tempted to pull a sickie tomorrow and stay home and just add up the popular vote myself. I might even do a BBC and apply a secret algorithm to it.

Religious fanatics getting involved in a fight against independence - we know where that could go.

So now we have a new definition of "win" which means you have to increase your victory to be considered winning. I look forward to transferring this to other things- presumably if the next indyref is 46/54 that'll be a victory for Yes. And next time Scotland play England, if we lose by 3 goals or less that's a win too. OK so that one might be harder to deliver.

The Tories had a good day in the important battle for best loser though and I wouldn't like to take anything away from them there.

[url= http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15270046.Meet_the__extremist__Tories_elected_to_Scots_councils/ ]...and friends like these.[/url]

No vetting in the Tory party or are they just desperate enough to take in anyone?

There's a long standing Tory councillor called [url= http://www.dng24.co.uk/picture-focus-council-election-count-at-dumfries/ ]Graham Bell (link here)[/url] that's been re-elected to his N-W Dumfries seat, needless to say he's a very rich farmer, his father is a very-very rich ex farmer and like father like son they are both horrendously racist, incredibly homophobic and an utter prick of the highest order. Par for the Tory party then

BruceWee - Member

In other news (or lack of it), I'm tempted to pull a sickie tomorrow and stay home and just add up the popular vote myself. I might even do a BBC and apply a secret algorithm to it

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39846268

All parties have wrong-uns unfortunately, the SNP and Labour have had a few idiots as well over the years. Thankfully the majority from all the major parties are just trying to do a decent job as they see fit.