Scotland Indyref 2

😆

Possible and hypothetical are 2 very different words!

epicyclo - Member

seosamh77 - Member
...In fact i dare ye, go for it...

Who? Me? No way! I'm just looking at possible scenarios.
I'll let you know if I start sharpening my claymore.

What no sardonic sneering reply from STW's Ron Liddle? C'mon Ninfan,explain exactly when the Scottish Green party decided to support the Union.

chewkw - Member
It will be so foolish to go on that path ...

Indeed. But the lesson of history is that when independence is withheld, eventually someone will make the first move.

Ninfan - the scottish greens are a separate party with separate manifestos

Not like you to make a basic error like that but its the sort of error that far too many English unionist commentators on scottish politics make due to their lack of knowledge and understanding

dragon

FAKE NEWS alert!!

You are Donald Trump & I claim my 5 gallons of underage hooker piss

Plus have you ever looked at and indy crowd? Hardly the best pool for guerilla fighters!

That's what they want you to think, maskirovka at its most committed.

Indeed. But the lesson of history is that when independence is withheld, eventually someone will make the first move.

True, but as yet it's not really withheld. Just two blah blah once blah generation blah blah......

(Leaving aside the claymore sharpening)*

Once we have a clear, committed, overwhelming majority in support. Then things change, but I'm not yet seeing the evidence for that......yet.

Well see how those cards fall over the coming few years. I for one will withhold judgement on who is out manoeuvring who, both May and Nicola are playing to different audiences. And whatever you think of the short term impact amongst peers and media you frequent, it's how it impacts support at the critical moment that counts.

*please tell me you have an x men style outfit?

Well see how those cards fall over the coming few years. I for one will withhold judgement on who is out manoeuvring who, both May and Nicola are playing to different audiences. And whatever you think of the short term impact amongst peers and media you frequent, it's how it impacts support at the critical moment that counts.

I respect Sturgeon as a politician and a person but am no SNP supporter. I used to think May an intelligent politician but her mishandling of things over the last while has changed that very much and of course I detest the tories in general

But even allowing for that bias Sturgeon has played a blinder here with the cards she has. She has made the argument about the referendum become about "when" not "if" and appears reasonable and willing to compromise whereas May with her repeating of soundbites rather than answering questions has made herself look very weak indeed, as being blown about by events rather than controlling them and as being completely hypocritical with her continual calling out of democratic will but cherrypicking what she considers relevant.

Despite the overwhelmingly unionist press I am sure Sturgeon will come out of this with her reputation enhanced and May with hers diminished and that the movement in public opinion in Scotland is all one way - Sturgeons way. Remember how it appears to English voters is irrelevant.

One really sad part of all this is watching Davidson having to toe the london line. She has had to contradict herself because of this and say things she clearly does not believe and the slow journey to a scottish conservative party that resonates in Scotland has been halted and put into reverse which I see as a personal tragedy for Davidson.

One really sad part of all this is watching Davidson having to toe the london line. She has had to contradict herself because of this and say things she clearly does not believe and the slow journey to a scottish conservative party that resonates in Scotland has been halted and put into reverse which I see as a personal tragedy for Davidson.

Agreed. Party and policies aside, I think she is excellent. I hope she isn't lost to Westminster, Scottish politics would be worse off without her.

tjagain

One really sad part of all this is watching Davidson having to toe the london line. She has had to contradict herself because of this and say things she clearly does not believe and the slow journey to a scottish conservative party that resonates in Scotland has been halted and put into reverse which I see as a personal tragedy for Davidson.

How does the old adage go - lie with dogs, get fleas?

Ruth's been used as nothing more than the mouthpiece for a long time - just look at her face in this video, from the moment she starts talking you can almost feel the embarrassment - her face at 1:06 speaks volumes...

Unfortunately Frank I think this will be her political demise.

She has gone from appearing reasonable and truthful to appearing just another politician without conviction and has ruined her reputation

the hard thing to see is who will be the beneficiaries? Labour and the lib dems remain toxic in Scotland, Greens will hardly attract too many core tory votes. Neither will the SNP - I suspect more folk will simply disengage from politics especially on the unionist side.

Remember how it appears to English voters is irrelevant.

Honestly, this reminds me of indyref1. For my sins I'm loosely connected via social media with a couple of Scot Con councillors and it's interesting just how different segments of the Scottish electorate perceive this. And I'm not talking about what those councillors are saying, but those that support them.

And that's a point I tried to make last time. What you see and perceive may well not be an accurate assessment of the overall picture.

Holyrood was set up to be a consensual chamber and altho Labour wouldn't join in this leading to their demise because of the "Bain principle" the tories did act in a consensual and collaberative manner leading to Goldie having influence in previous Holyrood decisions ( while labour had none despite having more seats) but it now appears Davidson ( I believe under orders from London) has been pushed down the same road of automatically opposing anything from the SNP instead of arguing on the merits of each proposal and I think will suffer the same fate as labour - who are now down to 14% in the polls - losing votes and influence.

Agreed piemonster. Social media can be a terrible echo chamber.

Trouble for the tories in Scotland Davidson has moved away from appearing sensible and moderate and speaking to the centre / undecided voters to appealing to their core only.

Something London politicians have failed to grasp is that because of the complex PR systems involved in scottish elections and because of the huge political debate and engagement of the last independence referendum the scots electorate is more sophisticated and able to make nuanced decision more than in England.

Ninfan - the scottish greens are a separate party with separate manifestos

Not like you to make a basic error like that but its the sort of error that far too many English unionist commentators on scottish politics make due to their lack of knowledge and understanding

I linked to the Scottish Green manifesto for the 2015 general election, which did not support or commit to independence

As already pointed out, this is the only election that has any bearing on independence, since as you well know, it is a reserved issue.

Scottish National Party 54
Independent 2
Scottish Labour Party 1
Scottish Conservative Party 1
Scottish Liberal Democrats 1

Seems conclusive.

You also seem to have trouble understanding how these things come about. Yes it's reserved to Westminster, kinda, but the 3 referendums Scotland has had in relation to home rule/independence were not offered, they were agitated for. in 79, 97 & 14.

Westminster will never offer up constitutional change of it's own accord.

so yes it's reserved to westminster, but it always needs scottish agitation for it to become a reality.

This is simple politics.

Fair enough ninfan - I made the mistake of not reading your link 😳

However everyone interested in Scottish politics knows the scottish greens position on independence. To me that manifesto simply show their realism in that a vote for a scottish independence referendum cannot come from Westminster only Holyrood therefore putting independence in it would appear daft.

Just ducking back in now and again, it's incredible how much more civilized and decent the conversation is when 'certain individuals' haven't joined in for a while*....

*Apart from Chewkw, who thankfully, most people have the sense to ignore.

a vote for a scottish independence referendum cannot come from Westminster only Holyrood

But that's my point, it's simply not true - for it to have effect, the vote has to be subject to a S30 order approved by the Westminster parliament, just like last time.

It would be perfectly possible for Theresa May to agree to another referendum on the request of the Scottish parliament/government, and the Westminster parliament say no.

I agree it's possible(and indeed, the correct way to go about thing), politics makes it unlikely to be refused though.

nobeer - that is certainly true. One particular individual has been missing for a couple of weeks now. I wonder if he is hurt too much?

Posted missing from the whole site in fact. I wonder if Mark's hammer of righteous moderation has smote him.

seosamh77 - Member
I agree it's possible to be refused(and indeed going through Westminster is the correct way to go about things), but politics makes it unlikely to be refused though, especially when there is a legitimate mandate from the scottish parliament..

Btw even thatcher thought a pro-indy majority in westminster was legitimate cause. We're well past that.

Guess I should edit that to what I actually ment! 😆

piemonster - Member
...*please tell me you have an x men style outfit?

Nah, but I have a kilt. 🙂

Used to have the family claymore, but I passed it on to another family member in Oz before coming back here.

For all of the talk about mandates and the majorities that SNP almost achieved in Holyrood and what first past the post gave them in Westminster, theres no denying that the both the SNP and the Greens have blown it with a percentage of their voters (how many remains to be seen).

Both (SNP and Green) said strong words about the pressure for a referendum coming from the "people" rather than from "party".

That made it safe for people who like the SNP "all things to all men" politics, but don't want independence, to vote for them, and for the green inclined non-independence junkies to vote for them.

But now, after the elections when there is _no_ pressure for independence from the people in Scotland, they've decided that they know best anyway.

If you listen carefully Sturgeon has even started talking about the "will of the parliament" rather than the "will of the people" over the last few weeks, and that is possibly the most dangerous ground she could be on for the future of Scotland.

Its dangerous because Sturgeon and Harvie are wilfully fomenting enormous resentment from those who don't want independence.

I agree with tj that theres a lack of real alternatives when it comes to voting for many people in Scotland. The libdems, labour and conservatives all have baggage for certain groups.

But now that everyone knows that a vote for the SNP or Greens = vote for neverendum, things might change.

Sadly, the change that might come is the practice of people voting to keep one side out of power rather than in favour of the policies of another, because of a single overriding issue.

Thats exactly whats meant by the "ulsterisation" of politics. (N.B. not talking about the violence here but the tribalism).

So, (IMO) thats where we are headed in Scotland, because Sturgeon can't let it go in the face of the majority views of her own constituents.

And some people still think shes some sort of political genius?

tish and pishaw.

eat_the_pudding - Member
For all of the talk about mandates...
..tish and pishaw.

There is huge pressure on Sturgeon to hold another referendum - from the party, from the wider independence movement and from the public at large.

there is no doubt at all she would rather wait until the polls show a large majority for independence but events have robbed her of that option.

thing is, you are correct in that no all SNP or green support independence, but the converse is true, not all Labour/Tories/Lib Dems support the union. So it's difficult to quantify.

As for sturgeon, well we'll see how it plays out, simple fact is that another ref wasn't in the agenda. It is now.

There are more people wanting independence now than there was at the start of the last campaign. Going back to 2012 what percentage would have wanted a referendum? Now it appears to be 50/50.

rene59 - Member
There are more people wanting independence now than there was at the start of the last campaign.

Opinion or fact?

As far as I am concerned, my view is that there are much less people wanting an independence now because they are waiting to see what they can get out from Brexit. 😛

I'll go with opinion polls for a useable guide rather than rely on whatever the f is going on in your head thank you.

rene59 - Member
I'll go with opinion polls for a useable guide rather than rely on whatever the f is going on in your head thank you.

What goes in my head is mine ... 😆

chewkw - Member
...What goes in my head is mine ...

I used to think May an intelligent politician but her mishandling of things over the last while has changed that very much

I thought her intelligent and that her Brexit waffle was merely pre-negotiation posturing. And then Andrew Neil interviewed her last night. Car crash is an understatement.

There are more people wanting independence now than there was at the start of the last campaign.

Given most people had to make their mind up one way or the other during the last campaign, that is hardly surprising. Unless you subscribe to the theory that Leave gained 15% (or whatever) last time so they'll gain it again this time and so win with nearly 60% of the vote.

Both sides are really quite entrenched after 2014 and the pool of floating voters is quite small.

epicyclo - Member

chewkw - Member
...What goes in my head is mine ...

Which is why I recommended some DIY neurosurgery with a ?" drill

Am I mistaken in feeling that the 'independence side' are rather patronising?

seosamh77 - Member
You have way too much confidence in scotland actually being full of nationalists willing to die for the cause. It isn't. Thankfully.

Only takes a couple of people and things have a habit of getting out of hand, as said it really depends on how badly it gets handled. There wasn't a huge drive for Irish independence but Englands response to the uprising led to one.

Both sides are really quite entrenched after 2014 and the pool of floating voters is quite small.

one word, Brexit. If it goes badly it will swing people, if it goes well then the status quo will be maintained.

gauss1777 - Member

Am I mistaken in feeling that the 'independence side' are rather patronising?

Not compared to better together

I'd characterise it as patronising and condescending from the NO side but a bit shrill dogmatic and uncompromising from the YES side

Try this for patronising - from lasttime

Am I mistaken in feeling that the 'independence side' are rather patronising?

Note I am not referring to anyone here but on the wider social media

I suppose the opportunity for the independence side this time is to portray post brexit UK as a step into the unknown.

Thing is the independence side is a huge number of folk so you can find almost anything amongst them - I know I see them on social media whereas there is no mass movement on the NO side - its all top down.

Am broadly neutral on this one so don't post on it, but read it from time to time. Anyway I has question! Forgive me if I can distract you guys for a minute.

What happens if Sturgeon and Co. just say "**** you May, we're running a referendum anyway."? (As in, could it physically take place without the PM's permission? Does Scotland have enough devolved powers to run one? I'm assuming it physically can; after all, it runs its own elections.

[Forgive me if this has already been answered.]

Deadlydarcy, my take on this, May can't stop it. Same approach that the Catalans are currently pursuing.

How would May then respond? seize control of Scotland????

How would that escalate?

Best is to humour Sturgeon, and hope Brexit goes well. IMO