Scotland Indyref 2

mefty - Member
May approval rating higher than Sturgeon's in Scotland

😆

Who conducted that poll; Jamba? And where did he conduct it; at one of THM's dinner parties?

Who conducted that poll; Jamba?

Without bothering to check. I'm going to bet £1 that it's an online poll without any control over who votes. Which are about as reliable as a bag full of sloppy cat shite.

I'll chuck another 50 pence in if it's one of those where you can refresh and vote again.

I honestly believe that run of the mill online polls should be treated with the same comtemp as a Daily Express front page weather headline.

not every scot likes the EU only 2/3 of them

Not sure that is completely true. Wasn't it 1.5m who voted to remain? 😀

A question for the economists.

Is there a model you use for forecasting the economic strength of a newly independent country?

None of the predictions of doom* have happened for other colonies becoming independent, so was that because the model was wrong?

Or because of cultural bias in the economists?
.
.
*that I am aware of, but even if a few have failed, the majority haven't.

That QT chap got away with quoting about Victorian 'free trade' when in fact it was 'restricted'. We controlled the Empire and they bought/sold to our rules plus at the time we were at the forefront of industrialisation so consequently had a serious advantage (not for long though).

A genuine question because I don't know the answer; what currency options have other recently-independent countries chosen?

You know you'd think a Party setup to create an independent country would have done that research, weighed up the options and presented it's conclusion as part of a 2 year long Referendum campaign.

TJ the silence is deafening, not a single sentence as to any of those options or any others offered up. You'll fit right in at the SNP.

On the May vs Strugeon popularity the pecking order is Davidson, May, Sturgeon - so both Tories ahead of her. Sturgeon did manage to be more popular than Jeremy Corbyn.

[quote=epicyclo ]Is there a model you use for forecasting the economic strength of a newly independent country?
None of the predictions of doom* have happened for other colonies becoming independent, so was that because the model was wrong?

So exactly what predictions were made for ex colonies and were they based on things changing post independence for countries which were previously successful under British rule (ie not requiring subsidy from Britain)? Not something I know much about - presumably you do as you keep bringing it up?

*that's OK then, I'm sure Scotland wouldn't be one of the few

More Jamby facts.

Coming next "Scotland is not a country." "Despite any international law, the oilfields will be divided up by population size." "We may just annexe Faslane."

Make him stop!

World Happiness Report 2017

1. Norway - Population 5.1M - GDP per capita 1.616
2. Denmark - Population 5.6M - GDP per capita 1.482
3. Iceland - Population 0.3M - GDP per capita 1.481
4. Switzerland - Population 8.4M - GDP per capita 1.565
5. Finland - Population 5.4M - GDP per capita 1.444

Interesting that the top 5 is dominated by smaller European countries. From a quick google search they all run quite low deficits as well, except the times when they are in surplus. No reason at all why an independent Scotland couldn't be up there with them given the time and effort.

[quote=rene59 ]No reason at all why an independent Scotland couldn't be up there with them given the time and effort.

I keep hearing this, without any explanation (or really thought) being given as to how and why that might happen. Why wouldn't it be like Portugal?

May is almost universally hated.

Not that I see (indifference then yes), so I guess like everything it depends where you look. I know a lot of people who hate Sturgeon.

The one person guaranteed to bring out the groans though is Corbyn, who is a complete non-entity.

what I don't get is that if Scotland is such a drain on the UK, why do the MPs and the English audience actually care if Scotland leaves. Its a bit bizarre to have this discussion in England as well. The only thing I can think of is that WM needs what Scotland has for negotiations for leaving the EU.

Why wouldn't it be like Portugal?

Why wouldn't it be like those above? If you were setting up a newly independent government and were looking for proven policy ideas to implement who would you rather look to for guidance?

In my view it's time we all had a vote on ending the UK. Lots of people in England would support that and vote for Scotland to leave if "Scotland is such a drain". Those of us that want a free Yorkshire know that Scotland is a drain on our reet proper Yorkshire life, though England manages to Do a better job. Yorkshire can look after its self in the xenophobic petty nationalist stakes far better than an SNP/Tory. So let's all have a vote, freedom for Holmfirth.

🙂

[quote=rene59 ]Why wouldn't it be like those above? If you were setting up a newly independent government and were looking for proven policy ideas to implement who would you rather look to for guidance?

How about you explain why it would be like those other countries? If it's so easy, why haven't Portugal done it?

What you can do is look at the current economics and remove the part which is directly linked to rUK. Anything else is hand waving and wishful thinking.

[quote=poah ]what I don't get is that if Scotland is such a drain on the UK, why do the MPs and the English audience actually care if Scotland leaves. Its a bit bizarre to have this discussion in England as well. The only thing I can think of is that WM needs what Scotland has for negotiations for leaving the EU.

You know how EU membership is such a drain on the UK (£350 million a week), yet most intelligent people who've thought about it think it beneficial to be a member...

That's all very well Mt but will Holmfirth have a flaky border or a shortcrust one?

How about you explain why it would be like those other countries? If it's so easy, why haven't Portugal done it?

After you explain why it couldn't. Did I say it would be easy?

given the time and effort

No I didn't. I said no reason why we couldn't be up there with them. What are the reasons why you think we couldn't?

[quote=rene59 ]After you explain why it couldn't.

Aha - well you're the one saying "Scotland could be like these countries" - onus appears to be on you! I'm not the one waving my hands and thinking wishfully.

What are the reasons why you think we couldn't?

The same reasons that Portugal isn't.

I'm not the one waving my hands and thinking wishfully.

How condescending.

Well how else would you describe it when you're suggesting Scotland could be like some other country, the only basis for which you've provided so far is that it is a similar size? (and yes, I do know that referendums and elections are won with worse arguments)

...and natural resources, and education/qualified workers, and industry, and infrastructure, and GDP, and outlook (for a large portion anyway). Add in the fact that we as a population are as politically engaged as we have ever been and you have all the necessary ingredients for change in the right direction.

Rubbish away...

[quote=rene59 ]...and natural resources, and education/qualified workers, and industry, and infrastructure, and GDP, and outlook (for a large portion anyway).

You've done lots of research into how those things compare with the countries you'd like to be like? How do they compare with other countries - Portugal for instance?

I've done enough research yes. Close enough to the countries mentioned above. What about you? What has your research led you to conclude about our similarities with Portugal?

It is quite easy to Rubbish away becasue you aren't explaining how this would come about or why it hasn't already & then you are throw out words like 'industry' & infrastructure' without any reasoning as to why these things are in a state to bring about the state of Independent Utopia you so fervently wish for. It's this sort of starry eyed thinking that makes the Independence case lack credibility with the majority of the Scottish population.

Epic. Not really. Economic forecasting verges on politics. There are so many assumptions that the "model" part is almost irrelevant.

People keep seaking about natural rescources but thats a double edged sword for Scotland whose economic fortunes are/would be so closely tied to the price of oil.

Norway took the decision to keep taxes high and pit all its oil revenue into a SWF. That option is not practicable in Scotland as its not realistically possible to raise taxes enough. Switzerland stayed out of two WWs and has a heaviky financial services based economy. Iceland was bankrupt, saved by Norway eytc. Portugal is very poor, much poorer than Scotland. Denmark, maybe a model to copy very high taxes though. Finlnd, hum don't see too many countries trying to emulate them.

[quote=rene59 ]I've done enough research yes.

Let's have it then, such stuff would be quite useful on this thread...

My point was that they are all 'happy' countries. Scored by the perception of their own happiness. Now they may not be the richest countries, they may have much higher taxes and be burdened with the curse of having natural resources, they may not try to position themselves on the world stage as some sort of power, but it doesn't seem to bother them too much does it?

aracer - Member

rene59 » I've done enough research yes.

Let's have it then, such stuff would be quite useful on this thread...

Well the similarities are obvious if you go look for yourself. I really can't believe you would deny this. Seeing as I had a say the last referendum and will have in the next, you think I haven't considered this as much as someone who didn't/doesn't? Given your stance I would be wasting my time posting anything up as you would only rubbish it anyway. I note you decline to share your own.

Jamba - 'Natural resources' does not directly equate to oil and gas

As you can see above, the Nats don't really understand the economic situation, nor do they want to....its largely immaterial. The finer points of how their industries might fair, how their tax policies may affect their people are all mostly irrelevant. Its all about Scotland standing on its own and ridding themselves of their controlling English neighbours.

And yet...if that happened and by chance they managed to become a part of the European Union again, they would effectively be throwing that independence in the sea and relying on the control and governance of a much larger neighbour.

[quote=rene59 ]Well the similarities are obvious if you go look for yourself.

Why don't you elaborate then?

Given your stance I would be wasting my time posting anything up as you would only rubbish it anyway. I note you decline to share your own.

We already established who was making claims with no evidence and hence where the burden of proof lies. My stance is simply that making unsubstantiated claims proves nothing, a problem you could potentially solve by posting detailed evidence of how and why Scotland could become like the countries you admire. I'm simply rubbishing lack of evidence. This sort of unsubstantiated claim has been repeated so often by those in favour of independence when it is really nothing more than wishful thinking.

jambalaya - Member
Epic. Not really. Economic forecasting verges on politics. There are so many assumptions that the "model" part is almost irrelevant...

So is it safe to say any forecasts of doom (or utopia) are really reflecting a political bias?

aracer - Member
So exactly what predictions were made for ex colonies and were they based on things changing post independence for countries which were previously successful under British rule (ie not requiring subsidy from Britain)?...

epicyclo - Member
So is it safe to say any forecasts of doom (or utopia) are really reflecting a political bias?

if that happened and by chance they managed to become a part of the European Union again, they would effectively be throwing that independence in the sea and relying on the control and governance of a much larger neighbour.

the control and governance within the EU is nowhere close to being controlled by a Tory government out of Westminster and much more in keeping with what I would want if I lived in Scotland.

Getting out of a tory controlled country would be my sole aim as pretty much everything they stand for is the opposite of what I want.
And looking at the tory representation in Scotland would suggest the thinking is similar to mine.

We already established who was making claims with no evidence and hence where the burden of proof lies. My stance is simply that making unsubstantiated claims proves nothing, a problem you could potentially solve by posting detailed evidence of how and why Scotland could become like the countries you admire. I'm simply rubbishing lack of evidence. This sort of unsubstantiated claim has been repeated so often by those in favour of independence when it is really nothing more than wishful thinking.

You are being absolutely ridiculous here, arguing for the sake of arguing. The fact that there are countries of similar size, make up, wealth, economies, resources, industries and people all out there making a success of it and being happy doing so is the evidence. I say there is no reason why we could not join them. You fail to come up with evidence we couldn't. So why don't you post up a list of similar sized, wealthy, resource rich countries with similar types of industries and people as Scotland has who are independent but unhappy and struggling to make their way?

kerley - Member

the control and governance within the EU is nowhere close to being controlled by a Tory government out of Westminster and much more in keeping with what I would want if I lived in Scotland.

Getting out of a tory controlled country would be my sole aim as pretty much everything they stand for is the opposite of what I want.
And looking at the tory representation in Scotland would suggest the thinking is similar to mine.

I posted this in another thread:

He's (J-C Juncker) that indefensible morally corrupt bent bastard that stole taxes from the EU by letting big business pay peanuts to his own country, whilst promising to do the exact opposite and probably lining his own pockets at the same time.

He's a **** snake.

That's what you want for Scotland is it?
And all because the shyster isn't labelled a Tory.

[img] [/img]

That's what you want for Scotland is it?
And all because the shyster isn't labelled a Tory.

If I was Scottish yes. Again, because the EU influence on me would be nowhere near as bad as the UK tory government.

The fact that there are countries of similar size, make up, wealth, economies, resources, industries and people all out there making a success of it and being happy doing so is the evidence.

You've selected some countries the size of Scotland which are doing well

No, I selected countries of similar size, make up, wealth, economies, resources, industries and people which are doing well (at the very least by their own reckoning).

and ignored any similar sized countries which aren't doing quite so well

I've asked for examples of countries of similar size, make up, wealth, economies, resources, industries and people which aren't doing quite so well (at the very least by their own reckoning). I haven't ignored them, I just don't know any. Do you? Maybe you can share?

imnotverygood - Member
So... you haven't actually done any 'research' then? You've selected some countries the size of Scotland which are doing well, and ignored any similar sized countries which aren't doing quite so well & on that basis you think you have provided eniough 'evidence' that an Independent Scotland is sure to succeed. Count me convinced.

I presume you're still living with your mummy and daddy because when you thought about leaving home, you could come up with no guarantees you would survive.

Or did you think something along the lines of I have these qualifications and resources and other people who have similar have made the leap into the great unknown and are doing ok?

[quote=epicyclo ]Subsidy? I think you have missed the point of colonies - they were acquired for their wealth. Many of them had been civilised much longer than the UK.

I hadn't at all - I was just wondering whether you had. So what you're telling me is that none of the ex colonies which successfully made a go of independence had a deficit like Scotland?

Different spending priorities? So tell me which things you're going to spend less on.

How did you vote on Brexit epicyclo? Sounds pretty much how a Leave would argue. What you are arguing for is the right to leave & ignore making out a credible economic case for it. Sure, you can take a chance if you want freeeeedom but the majority of the Scottish population didn't seem to find that attractive.

Different spending priorities? So tell me which things you're going to spend less on.

Surely you realise trivial things like balancing the books don't worry the SNP.
They are going to spend more on health, education, transport as they are going to scrap trident and use the submarine hulls as floating islands on which to grow money trees.

I presume you're still living with your mummy and daddy because when you thought about leaving home, you could come up with no guarantees you would survive