Scotland Indyref 2

Yes, we'll written piece (when it eventually downloads). Thx for the link Joe.

Tom Devine; be still my beating heart!

Yeah, nice one Jamba. I wonder if Portillo (as a 2nd generation immigrant) will get his marching orders post brexit!

That's a good analysis. though I think he underestimates the willingness of May and her cronies (and a substantial part of the public) to charge eagerly over the hard Brexit cliff.

Whether A50 is triggered when May says it will be is going to be the trigger.

So late 2018

hoping that the Brexit negotiations will be dragging out and all the fears of a hard brexit can be capitalised on?

Bring it on.

The biggest challenge
Will be the SNP convincing people that they can come up with a believable economic strategy post indy, would also require a lot of work with the EU.
Its a big ask!

In the SNPs favour
The government will be increasingly absorbed by Brexit (if Mays patronising speech was anything to go by that may or may not be a bad thing)
If we continue sucking up to Trump it will not do unionists any favours.
I predict that Corbyn will be as effective as he was during EU ref campaigning- Gordon Brown wont be there the way he was to save camerons bacon, and labour were burnt out in Scotland by the last indyref anyway.

They need to convince people that a vote for independence is not a vote for SNP, indeed if anything it will offer a labour 'type' party the opportunity to rise (but not RISE!) from the ashes of the current pit they find themselves in, and not a half arsed party who has to appeal to middle England.

The currency issue was the big one, alongside the 'not getting into Europe' tripe the last time. The latter is now a lot more straightforward, the former needs to be clarified.

There are still many questions from the last campaign that need answered, will be interesting to see if they actually come up something useful

Mostly though, I'm just looking forward to people being complete ****s to each other for a good year or so. Was great fun the last time round....

SNP will be praying my eurozone predictions are wrong. Still my view May/Westminster will not grant a binding Referendum in 2018, SNP will have to push on with a "unilateral" one.

UK out of EU by March 2019, Sep 2018 Referendum means a massive scramble required by SNP to come up with an EU plan plus a proper answer to the currency problem. Hard Brexit means WTO tariffs for Scotland's trade with rUK or certainky the very real threat of that from Westminster. Welsh lamb vs Scottish, no financial services cross sell (Edinburgh is totally reliable on financial services "exports" to rUK) ?

Nobeer explain how getting back into the EU will be more straighforward ?

I missed the bit when Indy5 timing was the unilateral responsibility of wee nippy

Still seems that she is still hedging her best and testing the wind.

Still ^2 exactly (not) what the Scottish economy and people need right now. Stability is an over-rated condition clearly.

Watch our for plenty of hard, cliff-edges.....

[quote=Nobeerinthefridge ]
the former needs to be clarified.

Yes, this was the big deal breaker for me. The petty "we'll use the pound" nonsense was very annoying.

Just say we'll use our own Scottish pound. No need for the Euro even as a "new" member of the EU, just a non-committal agreement to use the Euro at some point.

[url= https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10499/ipsos-mori-poll-half-scots-now-support-independence ]Modest increase in support for indy[/url]

Support for independence does seem to be growing slowly. Take your polls with care though.

It does look like autumn 18. In many ways the unionist campaign never stopped

[quote=gordimhor ]Modest increase in support for indy
Support for independence does seem to be growing slowly. Take your polls with care though.
It does look like autumn 18. In many ways the unionist campaign never stopped

I was a no voter. I'm now yes.

Every single no voter I've personally spoken to is now yes.

Nobeer explain how getting back into the EU will be more straighforward ?

Bad wording, I meant the threat of booting us out of the EU, by wheeling out dodgy Spaniards with vested interests, is now less of an issue.

When you step away from the ideas of the UK and EU and think

1. What form of union is in our interests and why, what features does that union need to have and not have and what are the costs and benefits

2. What from of independence is in our interests and why, what do we want to have full sovereignty over and what powers are better shared, what types of dependency do we want to avoid and why

Then, and only then, bring back the UK and the EU and then do a quick cross check against 1 and 2. The issues become crystal clear. Unfortunately the main agenda is to currently obscure that clarity and make it as opaque as possible to satisfy the very narrow interests of the narcissists.

It will be ugly to watch

[i]Support for independence does seem to be growing slowly.[/I]

It will do purely with demographics anyway I reckon, as the young will be out in force this time around.

We live in the Borders which was pro-stay (33/66) and pro-remain (41/59) - but only just over 100k population, so almost a rounding error.

Tbh THM, the issue isn't entirely financial for me, I'm quite happy to take a short term hit for long term gain.

It will be ugly, yes.

[quote=Nobeerinthefridge ]Tbh THM, the issue isn't entirely financial for me

I'm assuming it isn't for the vast majority of people who'd vote leave - the rest are just a bit daft.

Nobeer my view is its a long term hit in absolute terms, ie Scotland will be much poorer vs today. (Brexit worst case is/was UK will grow less but still grow). Plus the point TMH is driving at is as a smaller country applying to the EU even if successful influence will be close to zero

Bingo. We just need Ninfan to complete the Four horseman of the apocalypse, I'm sure he'll be along in a minute. 😆

It's not purely financial for me either.

[i]Tbh THM, the issue isn't entirely financial for me, I'm quite happy to take a short term hit for long term gain.[/I]

Pure Brexit which is why May is on dodgy ground having a pop at independence.

Boarding. Currency issue is more complicated. What Scotland will be asked for currency wise we don't know, my feeling is EU will not allow Scottish Pound and possibly not GBP either. EU will try and play Scotland off against UK as we leave, that could really squeeze Scotland in a very bad way. As any EU agreements must be ratified by 27 I simply don't see how that could be done on amy quick timetable post a 2018 Q4 Referendum

Nobeer Chapeau 🙂

BoardinBob - Member

I was a no voter. I'm now yes.

Every single no voter I've personally spoken to is now yes.

Allow me to be your exception then.

I'm certainly a 'softer' No than before, but they've still got to come up with some decent answers before I'd tick the other box

Support for independence does seem to be growing slowly.

Really? Are the Pro indy camp aware of the latest official forecasts for North Se oil tax revenues were cut again by more than a third? And that was from November, not following the oil price crash!

They are now saying the MOST oil and gas are likely to contribute to the public purse is £1billion. Slightly less than the SNP forecast for 2017/18 during the indyref campaign..... up to £11.8 billion.

Surely the Scottish people realise they have dodged a cannon ball?

We don't need oil to become independent, there is much more to life than how much money is in the public purse.

What do we need then?

[quote=km79 ]We don't need oil to become independent, there is much more to life than how much money is in the public purse.

Whilst I'm here - what do you reckon makes a real difference to your quality of life then? Whether you're governed from Westminster or Holyrood?

Really? Are the Pro indy camp aware of the latest official forecasts for North Se oil tax revenues were cut again by more than a third? And that was from November, not following the oil price crash!

They are now saying the MOST oil and gas are likely to contribute to the public purse is £1billion. Slightly less than the SNP forecast for 2017/18 during the indyref campaign..... up to £11.8 billion.

Surely the Scottish people realise they have dodged a cannon ball?

votes these days seem to be about restoring national pride, demonising foreign political elites, sovereignity and other such nonsense

economically and rationally brexit makes no sense but the 'will of the people' cannot be ignored

the question is are scots smarter than the british and american voters ?

Seeing how Brexit is shaping up, Scotland being fully in control of its own destiny seems the way forward, for better or worse. At least there's then only one set of government to blame/hold to account.
I think an iScotland should think hard about fully rejoining the EU though. The UK currently has vetos and special arrangements that would not be given to a new member such as iScotland. iScotland being in single market would be a must though.

I was a no last time and am still no fan of the SNP.

economically and rationally brexit makes no sense but the 'will of the people' cannot be ignored

the question is are scots smarter than the british and american voters ?

I'm not sure the "smart" choice is apparent yet, things might be a lot clearer come Autumn 2018.. or not

[quote=dmorts ]I think an iScotland should think hard about fully rejoining the EU though.
...
iScotland being in single market would be a must though.

Hmm

dmorts » I think an iScotland should think hard about fully rejoining the EU though.
...
iScotland being in single market would be a must though.

Hmm

[s]Insightful[/s]

To clarify by 'in', I mean have access at least.

THM

1. What form of union is in our interests and why, what features does that union need to have and not have and what are the costs and benefits

2. What from of independence is in our interests and why, what do we want to have full sovereignty over and what powers are better shared, what types of dependency do we want to avoid and why

[quote=dmorts ]To clarify by 'in', I mean have access at least.

You are TM and I claim my £5

You are TM and I claim my £5

Ha! I've just spat my tea out all over my tartan suit.... wait..oh

EDIT: really I don't know what should be done. One could write endless amounts on internet forums and its not going to change the fact you're not really in control. In an iScotland that's out of the EU at least there would only be one set of people in charge. It's almost a fatigue or wearing down that's brought me to think it's the best way forward

[quote=dmorts ]It's almost a fatigue or wearing down that's brought me to think it's the best way forward

By such means Donald Trump is elected...

One thing that people don't seem to be acknowledging is the size of the swing that the Brexit vote caused. The press are pushing the idea Brexit resulted in no change in support for independence whereas in actual fact 25% of the population changed their mind. It was just that they changed in both directions.

The main question then is whether voters can be convinced of the benefits of the single market (notice that I said the single market, not the EU). May seems to have kicked the idea of staying in the single market into touch.

I honestly believe that a lot of the resistance to the single market will disappear the more it is debated. Say what you like about the White Paper, it provided a framework for the debate where specifics could be challenged. The SNP needed 127 pages to set out it's plans, the brexiteers wrote theirs on the side of a bus. Looking forward to the debate.

If Denmark, Sweden, Finland can all be viable and rich countries Scotland with its wealth of natural resources can be as well. What do we need to make this happen? control of our economy

Whilst I'm here - what do you reckon makes a real difference to your quality of life then? Whether you're governed from Westminster or Holyrood?

How we spend the money we have and who we spend it on. How we treat the worst off in society and look after the vulnerable. How wealth is created and distributed. How we look after and manage our resources to the benefit of all. Foreign policy and defence, how we conduct ourselves when dealing with others.

2. What from of independence is in our interests and why, what do we want to have full sovereignty over and what powers are better shared, [b]what types of dependency do we want to avoid and why[/b]

Avoid: The Tories and/or sneering westminster types
Why: I'd get hit with the banhammer if I used the appropriate language

Being goverened from Holyrood would / does make a huge difference to us. Just not in ways the right winfgers like. A health service free of market idology that wastes >10% of funding in England. No more killing of brown folk in their own countries. Sensible energy policy, sensible land ownership and access policies. Social services to look after the poor nd needy not to penalise them.

A left of centre, green and international looking government. Yes it makes a huge difference and independence would make it better.

[quote=tjagain ]
A left of centre, green and international looking government. Yes it makes a huge difference and independence would make it better.

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