I would disagree Kimbers - for those in the middle - the undecided its very much about what you think is best.
A lot of very serious conversations about it last time and the lack of good answers about money did cost votes. I think you underestimate the scots electorate and the depth of the "big conversation" last time
As regards big and daft - he is simply being contrary, provocative and unpleasant. He has clearly been baiting me. Very much like THM. don't feed the troll
So hypothetically the snp call a referendum and all the no voters think 'nope, we've been through this before, the UK government don't agree to this so we won't participate'
If the snp hold their own vote they will obviously win by a landslide as everyone I know who is a firm 'no' sees the vote as illegitimate. I suspect many other no voters will do the same. If they think they may lose this time round, and I think they may, the easiest way to deligitimise the entire thing is to not bother to participate.
For what its worth I'm on fence. I'll probably vote no again if it's in next 12 month's. If however they wait 3 years and brexit has ruined us then ill be a much more likely yes.
I can't see the rush myself. If brexit is so sure to be a disaster then let's wait and find that out, then we'll all want to leave. The snps desire to get a vote when then uk is at its lowest ebb In many many years stikes me as pretty cynical. If they truely had the countries interests at stake rather than their own agenda they would wait amd see what happens in next 3 years. If it's as bad as we think it'll be they will win by a landslide. They are clearly worried that things may upturn and opinion will swing the other way.
but if its going to be done, for the good of scotland it needs to be done properly & those questions deserve answers
Tj is a firm yes to independence, he's told us that many a time. I however am undecided and this comment is 100% accurate. I'm not going to vote yes based on being told things will be fine 'don't worry', which is what happened last time.
Snp need to lay out a plan if they want to win over the undecided. That's where they failed spectacularly last time round. This time they seem to be relying soley on everyone thinking Westminster is useless, rather than selling why independence is such a great plan.
Edit, not arguing that Westminster isn't useless..so the plan may work!
Independence is going to happen.. It's just a matter of when.
The furlough debacle was a perfect indication of why Westminster is failing everyone but England.. There is no Union, its just England lording it over the other nations..
tp - I think yo will see a lot of good info. I hope so for sure. I was undecided right until I went into the booth last time partly because i thought the money stuff was weak. there was a huge detailed plan published before. It really wasn't "don't worry it will be fine"
Why the rush? the quicker we do it the easier getting back into the EU will be as divergence will be minimal is one reason and the other is that the fundamentalist fringe of the wider independence movement are very impatient.
Boycott of a referendum would make it useless for sure which is why Sturgeons wants a legal one 60 % yes on 40% turnout would not convey legitimacy
If however they wait 3 years and brexit has ruined us then ill be a much more likely yes.
I can’t see the rush myself. If brexit is so sure to be a disaster then let’s wait and find that out, then we’ll all want to leave.
Which is lovely if you're in a comfortable enough position to see out the three years (plus any campaign/referendum/negotiation/transition time) of that disaster. Meanwhile we have a Westminster Government trying to weaken the current devolution settlement and of driving us further away from EU standards and policies, making any future re-entry more difficult.
Tjagain:
As regards big and daft – he is simply being contrary, provocative and unpleasant. He has clearly been baiting me. Very much like THM. don’t feed the troll
This accusation seems unjustified to me. Just because not everybody agrees with your rosey-eyed view of how Scottish independence will unfold, does not make them a troll.
Since there are a large number of wavering voters to be persuaded, it might be worthwhile answering the questions as if they were genuine, even if you think they are an attempt to bait you.
Ps I pretty much sit in the same place as tpbiker.
Big and Daft I can appreciate that the comedy video appeals to some though not to me.
However Sìol Nan Gàidheal which is a horrible group and rightly is banned from the SNP displayed that banner at an AUOB march against the organisers wishes.
Then there is the stupid jibe about the drugs deaths. Drug policy is reserved to the UK government. That's why there are no safe consumption rooms etc. Odd that the "comedian didn't check that first.
Finally WOS supports independence but not the SNP
Which is lovely if you’re in a comfortable enough position to see out the three years (plus any campaign/referendum/negotiation/transition time) of that disaster. Meanwhile we have a Westminster Government trying to weaken the current devolution settlement and of driving us further away from EU standards and policies, making any future re-entry more difficult.
thats pretty key, levelling up is needed, across the UK, but weve already seen for fishing that brexit is going to be doing the very opposite of that
post covid & dealing with brexit every region across the UK will need a recovery plan (& i think things need to be much more decentralised fwiw I think a federal settlement is all thats needed but i dont get vote on indy) and planning for Indy scotland is an opportunity to do that, but it CANT be the empty nonsense of the brexies & Johnson
TPBiker I believe that the plan is for the SNP to ask for a section 30 again. If Johnson refuses they plan to take legal action to prove that the Scottish government can hold a legally binding referendum.
Since there are a large number of wavering voters to be persuaded, it might be worthwhile answering the questions as if they were genuine, even if you think they are an attempt to bait you.
Not particularly aimed at anyone here but I get a distinct sense of ‘we know best, you clearly don’t understand’ when I speak to die hard yes voters which isn’t the approach that wins over the undecided
PBiker I believe that the plan is for the SNP to ask for a section 30 again. If Johnson refuses they plan to take legal action to prove that the Scottish government can hold a legally binding referendum.
Well that may work I guess. Can’t see it myself but if it does fair play
p – I think yo will see a lot of good info
Hopefully because last time round the plan was completely non existent. I’ll vote for independence if there is a convincing argument however, as we’ll finally be rid of the tories . But I won’t do it at the expense of future generations just to stick it to the worst government of my lifetime
There is no Union, its just England lording it over the other nations
That strikes me as somewhat hyperbolic.
This accusation seems unjustified to me.
Read back his posts. I am perfectly prepared to debate with those who are civil and who want to debate. He has been calling me names, sneering, putting words in my mouth, being belittling and refusing to listen to anything anyone might put forward. he has contributed nothing to the debate. He is clearly trying to antagonise me. His modus operandi is exactly like THMs
answer him he invents something you clearly did not say then ridicules it, keeps on asking unanswwerable questions, refers to me as "englishman" compares me to gove, states things that are wrong as facts etc etc.
the very definition of a troll. a good troll looks superficially plausible
Hopefully because last time round the plan was completely non existent
This was the published plan before the 2014 ref. some of it will now be out of date and some of it you can pick holes in but its a clear detailed plan
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-future/
The Book of Dreams was nice enough but not based on anything concrete. That's the thing, until we vote to leave, a national unity government is formed and constitutional arrangements created and ratified you can't say for sure what it would look like. A lot of the extra stuff like defence, EU membership and so on are all political policies and only going to come about through government. At the moment the only thing you can do is aspire and be honest about that, sure you can have plan A and plan B regarding currency and both will have their advantages and drawbacks.
Pretending there is a simple solution and IS will look like X is just daft though.
To say there was no plan is also wrong. There it is in all its glory. I would expect something similar this time
Apologies if this has been covered somewhere already, but my lad asked this question last night - given that Scottish independence seems to assume a quick and easy re-entry to the EU, which really cannot be guaranteed as quick or easy, does Sturgeons relative popularity risk swaying the vote in the way that the cult of Boris helped bolster support for Brexit?
Could populism overcome pragmatism again? Because it hasn't ended well with Brexit.
Robbie Burns Day. This is appropriate. His poem on how Scotland was sold out by our aristocracy
Fareweel to a’ our Scottish fame,
Fareweel our ancient glory;
Fareweel ev’n to the Scottish name,
Sae fam’d in martial story.
Now Sark rins over Solway sands,
An’ Tweed rins to the ocean,
To mark where England’s province stands-Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
What force or guile could not subdue,
Thro’ many warlike ages,Is wrought now by a coward few,
For hireling traitor’s wages.
The English steel we could disdain,
Secure in valour’s station;
But English gold has been our bane –Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
O would, ere I had seen the day
That Treason thus could sell us,
My auld grey head had lien in clay,
Wi’ Bruce and loyal Wallace!
But pith and power, till my last hour,
I’ll mak this declaration;
We’re bought and sold for English gold-Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
It cannot be guaranteed no - but given the positive noises coming out of the EU and from some very senior and the fact there are no major difficulties its as likely as it can be without a formal guarantee.
Sturgeons popularity is certainly a bonus but to me its not a cult of personality nor is it populism because of the truthfulness.
Re-entry to the EU isn't a given. And it shouldn't be viewed as such nor something the Scots should immediately agree to. We're out of Europe now, whether we go back should be subject to debate and a decision will need to be made on it further down the line.
Tbh the EU shouldn't really be part of the discussion anymore. Circumstances have changed and a 2016 62% to remain is irrelevant.
Tbh I'm not 100% people will say aye to going back in in 3 4 or 5 years, I probably would but will need to consider circumstances. Simple fact is England is scotland's largest trading partner and whatever relationship they have with the EU in a few years time will be highly relevant to Scotland.
If re-entry to the EU is the defining factor in your support for independence. I'd suggest you should think about a bit more.
I don't think EU re-entry is a given at all, and not because the EU don't want us.
Plus an independent scotland will bring it's own questions to answer and the EU question will naturally disappear into the background noise of other issues.
Apologies if this has been covered somewhere already, but my lad asked this question last night – given that Scottish independence seems to assume a quick and easy re-entry to the EU, which really cannot be guaranteed as quick or easy, does Sturgeons relative popularity risk swaying the vote in the way that the cult of Boris helped bolster support for Brexit?
Could populism overcome pragmatism again? Because it hasn’t ended well with Brexit
The reasons for the shift in polls will have a lot more to do with Brexit and covid. Than the popularity of sturgeon I'd reckon.
Tbh the EU shouldn’t really be part of the discussion anymore. Circumstances have changed and a 2016 62% to remain is irrelevant.
Even if it's higher than that now as the polls tell us. The whole Uk figure is now similar to the Scottish result and the Scottish remain vote certainly hasn't diminished. Memebership of the EU wil be one of the key issues driving Scottish independance and to dismiss it naive.
The reasons for the shift in polls will have a lot more to do with Brexit and covid. Than the popularity of sturgeon I’d reckon.
Quite possibly, the view from down here in England is easily distorted. Certainly her handling of those two issues has been much better than the UK government, but my support for her for that - if I lived in Scotland - would not overcome my reluctance to vote for independence.
Maybe the way it's reported down here, but I'm sensing the kind of "easiest deal in history" false optimism might be a factor. Just so long as she doesn't write anything on the side if a bus! 🤣
Not particularly aimed at anyone here but I get a distinct sense of ‘we know best, you clearly don’t understand’ when I speak to die hard yes voters which isn’t the approach that wins over the undecided
This , very much this . I'm a previous no voter who is angry and Hates everything the Tories have done to the UK over the past 3 years but if brexit has shown us anything an SNP white paper on a post indy Scotland is only a starting point for post referendum negotiation . Whilst Boris and his cronies have certainly made me more inclined to vote yes brexit has shown the difficulty of ending political unions and I'd be very wary of any yes campaign promises that aren't concrete , I know it wouldn't happen but I'd like to see some sort of confirmatory vote post any negotiation .
Edukator
Free Member
Tbh the EU shouldn’t really be part of the discussion anymore. Circumstances have changed and a 2016 62% to remain is irrelevant.Even if it’s higher than that now as the polls tell us. The whole Uk figure is now similar to the Scottish result and the Scottish remain vote certainly hasn’t diminished. Memebership of the EU wil be one of the key issues driving Scottish independance and to dismiss it naive.
Maybe, the whole brexit shambles is no doubt a major motivator in shifting polls as is brexit.
Which to be honest as brexit more becomes the norm and as the covid crisis abates, we'll see a shift back, how much, who knows...
Tbh, I don't doubt the EU part will play a big part in the campaigning, it more than likely will. But that's pre-referendum, post referendum will see a new world and a whole new set of priorities appear, most notably london - edinburgh negotiations, which will dwarf everything else, rejoining the EU will be a priority down the road and the world will look different to scots depending on the outcome of those negotiations. After that we'll see a general election or 2 before we see re-join the EU I'd reckon, possibly even a few more referendum before that too, as we'll need to decide on questions like currency etc..
I'd suggest independence will be far from a short process, never mind rejoining the EU.
People like to say there's parallels to brexit and independence nah, no really, independence is a much bigger proposition! 😆
Everyone should go into it with their eyes open.
Economic pain can precipitate rapid change, and there's a mountain of pain on the horizon:
End of furlough redundancies, continued Covid constraints due to mutations and vaccin inefficacity.
Growing debt
Inflation that is the inevitible consequence of printing money through Covid.
Brexit pain becoming more apparent, it happened a month ago, the consequences are becoming apparent and there is more pain to come as the various transition periods come to an end.
And it'll all be Westminster's fault, because let's face it, it is. There's enough for a revolution there let alone a referendum.
There’s enough for a revolution there let alone a referendum.
I could possibly get behind a revolution rather than independence 😅
More cash;I have a list of lamp post ornaments. The SFA may need to rethink their list of assigned linesmen though.
I think that if people want a concrete plan on what is going to happen post independence then it's going to be wishful thinking. It's like asking a government what it's policies will be in ten years time. They can give you their philosophies and general thoughts but they cannot give you any guarantees because World events cause changes to plans all the time.
In the case of independence you want to know exactly what currency will be used, exactly what the relationship with the EU is going to be, exactly what defense policy is going to be, what's going to happen to the nukes, what's going to happen with the fish, etc.
Almost every aspect is going to impact at least one other aspect and often all other aspects. The SNP can give you an incredibly detailed breakdown of what IS is going to look like as they did in 2014. The problem with very detailed interrelated plans is that it only takes one or two things to go wrong and the plan starts to fall apart.
The SNP is going to publish a detailed plan which will be torn to shreds as the last one was. It was torn to shreds because it relied on the UK government and the EU agreeing to things and all they had to say was, 'No, we won't agree to that.' in the case of the UK government and 'We aren't going to answer that.' in the case of the EU and the plan was a mess.
Maybe it will be better this time if the plan is based on rUK not agreeing to anything and if the EU decides to provide some clarifications.
My point is that if you want a 23 point plan for life after independence in order to vote Yes then you're going to be disappointed. I would say it's more a question of general principles and philosophies.
Saying that, we should talk details (just try to ignore the trolls) about what IS will look like because the SNP is going to fracture the day after a YES vote and Scotland will have to have another election to decide what Independence is actually going to look like.
Ignore the trolls, obviously.
I rewrote that with a Brexit theme:
Fareweel to a' our British fame,
Fareweel our ancient glory;
Fareweel ev'n to the British name,
Sae fam'd in global story.
Now Frome rins over Solent sands,
An' Tweed rins to the ocean,
To mark where Brexit's province stands-
Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
What force or guile could not subdue,
Thro' many warlike ages,
Is wrought now by Johnson’s few,
For offshore traitor's wages.
Europe’s hand we did disdain,
In “Sovereignty’s” fixation;
For Tory lies have been our bane -
Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
Auld Scotland tak’s a hindward glance
And kens what is afore us
Oor “precious Union” has nae chance
We’ve had enough of Boris
But pith and power, till my last hour,
I'll mak this declaration;
Doomed to fail this Brexit tale-
Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
Re-entry to the EU isn’t a given. And it shouldn’t be viewed as such nor something the Scots should immediately agree to. We’re out of Europe now, whether we go back should be subject to debate and a decision will need to be made on it further down the line.
I'd agree with that. When it was so definite we were going to be in EU the rUK was in the EU. Now - not so clear, not that I'm suggesting Scotland would want to remain as far our as England, but there are many things which would need to be considered including the currency and need for physical borders with England which make it a less clear cut choice. But EFTA or EEA membership would seem to be either stopgap or long term solutions. But if we get to debate all these things - why are we keeping the monarchy?
why are we keeping the monarchy?
What's the shape of iS government? Who will be the head of state. When will there be elections? What's the parliamentary term? Is there a second chamber, how are they selected/elected?
In short where is the draft constitution?
It cannot be guaranteed no – but given the positive noises coming out of the EU and from some very senior and the fact there are no major difficulties its as likely as it can be without a formal guarantee.
Where does the mandate come from? Another referendum?
With what currency? (Transitional pound is allowed if you are going for comedy) and what is the transition plan for that? How many years of economic alignment? Should be easy to answer as there as there are "no major difficulties"
What's the impact of a EU single market border with England?
But EFTA or EEA membership
Both of which require a border unless you join the customs union, and freedom of movement with the rest of the EU, and Norway pays more per capita to the EU for the privilege than the the UK used to as a member.
It's a member without saying as much solution, may as well just join along with the Euro and not risk having arun on your currency. Scotland could have managed its oil wealth and revenues like Norway but that would have required a declaration of independence before 1980. Scotland has been raped and pilaged, and left without its most valuable industrial asset.
One advantage of the EFTA is it doesn't involve the Common Agricultural Policy or fisheries agreement. It's worth keeping in mind, not saying it's a deal breaker.
I would say that, overall, full EU membership would be better with EFTA membership being the fall back. But it's important to remember that there are advantages to the fall back solution if it comes to that.
In short where is the draft constitution?
This was the draft constitution bill from last ref
The Times has a good breakdown of how The government plan to counter growing indy support
Brown wants a federal system, personally I think that is what the UK needs & not just Scotland, but all regions
But I'll bet Tories won't go for it & indy is inevitable now
@kimbers - do you have an equivalent link to the current UK constitutuon? Just for comparisons sake.
Was that joke scotroutes?
I believe you can find the UK constitution by interpreting the governments repository of scrolls under parliament
The UK has no need of a constitution so long as everyone sticks to the unwritten rules and gentlemen's agreements...
@kimbers - it was a wry dig at the seemingly unending list of prerequisites that folk have before considering voting for Scottish independence. See also; EU membership (c2014), foreign aid budget, defence budget, etc etc etc.
My point is that if you want a 23 point plan for life after independence in order to vote Yes then you’re going to be disappointed. I would say it’s more a question of general principles and philosophies.
I'm very much sharing Bruce's opinion, you can argue over every little nuance of this, but even Cameron and Gideon admitted the last time that Scotland being financially viable wasn't a question. The status quo is not the norm worldwide, we're not stupid, there will be challenges, absolutely but I'm not exactly seeing the UK as being plain sailing at the moment.
Getting bogged down in every minute detail was a mistake the yes team made the last time, for me the 2 big issues were currency, and it will still be an issue this time, and us getting punted out of the EU. How's that last one went for y'all?.
Do all 27 EU members have to agree on Scotland's re-entry to the EU? I thought Spain said it would veto it because of the Andora situation.
I thought Spain said it would veto it because of the Andora situation.
You mean Catalonia, but please let's not replay this one. Nobody knows with any certainty of the exiting members would object. There have been various comments from Spanish officials to the effect that they're a lot less concerned about this than the Unionists make out.
I can't help feeling that it's all a bit (lot?) like:
'Brexit means brexit' but just: 'iS means iS'
As we've already discussed, the current Brexit arrangement isn't set in stone. There are scheduled negotiation points built in to the process and as a government cannot be held to the policies of its predecessor there would be nothing to stop the Labour Party adopting a much more pro-EU stance and putting that to the electorate. In theory, they could even opt to re-join. We have Brexit because that's what folk voted for.
