BillMC
Full MemberYep, ‘more money in your pocket’ now will still buy you less than it would 18 months ago.
Yup. It's ALWAYS about selectign the time period to put a positive spin on things. Look on this today and you can make it a good news story. Look at the year long trend and it's obviously bad and the trends are where we actually live, not just on a single day.
See also: "Everything is fine because we are not in a recession" and "our economy outgrew the eurozone"
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1692974722147840207
to paraphrase Dirty Harry "your culture war ain't makin' it"
Bumped into Jake Berry's replacement (I hope) today, was quite illumninating to get an insiders view of labour and the current mess the Torys have left us with. Suffice to say depsite me ought to be a dyed in the wool conservative he'll be getting my vote (caveat i knew him before he got the Labour nomination, hes a passionate guy whos in it for the right reasons and not for his own glory, complete opposite to Jake the Snake, hes also a cyclist). Anyway how long do we have to wait for the election?
Too long.
I expect we’ve got 14-15 months of rudderless drift, while shouting about small boats and trans people, before the inevitable electoral wipeout
Even those around Sunak in number 10 must be wondering what the hell the point is of limping cluelessly on until then
...because 14-15 months of being shit in power is much more fun and lucrative than being excellent in opposition for 5 years.
Even those around Sunak in number 10 must be wondering what the hell the point is of limping cluelessly on until then
Big pay-offs and gold plated pensions, isn't it?
They are not in it to make the country better, they are in it to become very rich. See: nadine Dorries.
Also Labour... So closely aligned to the conservatives it makes no odds, it suits Labour to be plan B to the tories as they never have to actually do anything.
much more fun and lucrative than being excellent in opposition for 5 years.
It seems most of the country thinks in binary, as do the Labour party... the labour party is pro brexit, and anti human rights, just like the conservatives.
Other political parties are available, but are consistently poo-pooed becaouse 'no one would vote for them because they will never win'.
Self fulfilling prophecy or what?
Other political parties are available, but are consistently poo-pooed becaouse ‘no one would vote for them because they will never win’.
Yep a shit situation that only PR would get anywhere close to starting to fix. The Green Party policies would be better for a LOT of people in UK yet they still sit there at 7% and when it comes to election will probably still get 1 MP.
I think that is largely because those same people are not really looking at what the parties have as polices and approaches and just go with what they think are tory and Labour. While they are rightly keen to see the back of the tories (for 5 years until they have forgotten why) they are in for a surprise if they think Labour will be doing anything noticeably different for them.
They are not in it to make the country better, they are in it to become very rich.
Other political parties are available, but are consistently poo-pooed becaouse ‘no one would vote for them because they will never win’.
But you back the Liberal Democrats, how did it turn out when they were given a chance?
Did Nick Clegg back austerity because it made "the country better"?
And how is he doing these days working for a tax-avoiding company?
https://www.cityam.com/clegg-banks-10m-bonus-following-meta-promotion/
"According to Bloomberg, the former deputy prime minister raked in a stock package worth $12.3m (£9.4m), which comes on top of his annual salary at Facebook’s parent company."
Yep a shit situation that only PR would get anywhere close to starting to fix
There was something in the last couple of weeks suggesting Lab are finally starting to realise electoral reform is a necessity.
Still, until I see this as an actual manifesto commitment I won’t believe it.
There was something in the last couple of weeks suggesting Lab are finally starting to realise electoral reform is a necessity.
What was that?
Presumably it wasn't the latest seat predictions which suggests a 272 majority for Labour:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Support for electoral reform is massive within the Labour Party and has been for years, now the big trade unions back it, as do the majority of Labour voters.
Last year delegates at the Labour Party Conference backed a motion supporting proportional representation.
However it is highly unlikely that as PM Keir Starmer would back PR. He has already claimed that reforming the UK's antiquated electoral system isn't a priority for him.
The problem for Starmer is that PR would give a leg up to any new party which might be formed. He knows full well that his redefining of the Labour Party as a tory-lite party risks creating the need for another left-wing party which will challenge the current Tory narrative.
Starmer wants his redefined Labour Party to be the only alternative to the Tories. For that he needs to maintain the current two party/first-past-the-post status quo.
It doesn't mean that Starmer can't be forced to accept electoral reform, especially if Labour has a huge parliamentry majority, but no one should expect it to be easy.
Besides, I don't expect Starmer to last a full term as PM.
Sunak (& William) getting stick for not going to the WC final.
Thank god for that. At least he spared us the toe-curling embarrassment of this…
Or ‘Dave’ Cameron forgetting which team it was he actually supported - as Villa and West Ham have similar kits, so how is anyone supposed to know, really? It’s a mistake we all make. 🙄
Like any of them has ever watched a game of football before. How frightful?! There’s actually a rare degree of honesty in Rishi being straight that he can’t even be arsed pretending he cares
Sunak (& William) getting stick for not going to the WC final.
It's unlike Sunak to pass up some all-expenses paid flights!
Liz Truss managed it just fine.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/27/labour-condemns-waste-of-liz-truss-taking-private-jet-to-australia
He has already claimed that reforming the UK’s antiquated electoral system isn’t a priority for him.
That's vague enough to allow it to still happen.
He knows full well that his redefining of the Labour Party as a tory-lite party risks creating the need for another left-wing party which will challenge the current Tory narrative.
Right, but a large centre ex-centre-left party would naturally form a coalition with a true left wing party. That's how this stuff works.
I don't think that theory carries much weight.
Firstly we see how SKS has led a war on "the left" within the labour party, the nu labour project constantly shows no appetite for doing deals with progressives, they are not moving to the right to make room for progressive policies to be championed by others, they are doing so to stifle those voices.
Then we have the case of the libdems, who arguably had a manifesto to the left of labour, but stepped over their "natural" coalition party to go in with the tories instead.
Why should Sunak be there? Isn’t that the kind of thing we have the Royals for?
Oh FFS, the Starmer thread again.
Yes thats right chaps - its needs to be said sometimes
I know many of you don't want Starmers moving labour to be a party of the right and don't want brexit mentioned - tough!
You cannot ignore it and you cannot deny it.
There are threads for both those things.
Everyone apart from the same 5 loons stays well away from them because… well… because of the same 5 loons, competitively agreeing with one another in the shoutiest manner possible
Off you pop…
And both those things are pertinent to other discussions
Ignoring it or pretending it has not happened does not change things you know.
Why not pop over to the football thread and start talking about rugby? Technically they’re both sports, so it’s all pertinent…
Apparently…
He has already claimed that reforming the UK’s antiquated electoral system isn’t a priority for him.
That’s vague enough to allow it to still happen.
Well he didn't really have much choice other than to be vague, voicing outright opposition to proportional representation wasn't really an option when the Labour Party Conference has voted in favour of it.
The best he can do was to suggest that it isn't a priority for him. I do however agree that PR could still come from a Labour government though.
It certainly will not come from a Tory government!! Eventually the UK's electoral system will be hauled into the 21st century, the only real question is when.
Oh Christ! At the risk of getting involved in the Starmer debate; the vociferous opposition within Labour to PR comes from the union dinosaurs, who for reasons only known to themselves are dead against it
And here we are… another thread derailed yet again with the same tedious lot rattling on about how much they hate SKS and how everything is his fault 🙄
Starmer is against PR.
UNite is in favour of electoral reform
so wrong on both counts
Then go and discuss that on the Starmer thread
This a thread about Rishi Sunak, allegedly, and I’ll tell you one thing for sure… every MP and member and probably every voter of the party he represents are absolutely opposed to PR
You’ll find the Starmer thread off to your left. Have fun with the other four, won’t you…
Eventually the UK’s electoral system will be hauled into the 21st century, the only real question is when.
22nd century
Why? Its on this thread where PR was being discussed and you made two false statements about it 🙂
Look - we get you cannot cope with the cognitive dissonance of supporting a right wing brexiteer party 🙂
opposition within Labour to PR comes from the union dinosaurs, who for reasons only known to themselves are dead against it
You need to keep up to date with current affairs a tad better binners. The reason the PR motion was carried at the last Labour Party Conference was because the majority of trade unions now support it.
Public opinion has shifted too. Previously public opinion was opposed to PR:
51% now favour reform to the voting system for elections to the House of Commons, up from 27% in 2011 and 43% in 2017.
For the first time, a majority of Labour supporters (61%) favour electing MPs using proportional representation, up from 27% in 2011 and 47% in 2017.
The "dinosaur" trade unions reflect the opinions of their members..... ordinary members of the public.
Public opinion, including that of Labour voters, has changed with regards to PR.
And yet another thread derailment by the same usual spirit-crushingly tedious suspects is complete 🙄
Unite and UNISON dropped their opposition to PR last year. Rishi Sunak was not reported as being involved.
My money is on PR for the second house replacement for the Lords (can’t keep stuffing it to rebalance it) coming in the next 10 years. Elections for the commons likely 5 years after that at the earliest. Rishi Sunak unlikely to be in parliament to vote against either.
What odds can you get on Sunak losing his own seat at the next general election? Worth a flutter?
And yet another thread derailment by the same usual spirit-crushingly tedious suspects is complete
How complete...... will you never be able to use this thread again to criticise Rishi Sunak?
Avoid posting nonsense about trade unions being opposed proportional representation if you want to focus purely on Rishi Sunak. It is Keir Starmer who is opposed to PR.
Incidentally the way you get into a rant if anyone dares to make a remark which you perceive to be critical of the Labour leader reminds me of the blind loyalty of a cult follower.
He is really quite special to you, isn't he? 🙂
Here’s a report on the actual vote on PR at the Labour conference. The real one, as opposed to the weird fictional version of it that appears to exist in your head…
Unions vote down local Labour parties’ call to axe first past the post
The motion, calling for the next Labour government to replace first past the post with a form of PR, was submitted by more than 150 constituency Labour parties (CLPs), and was the second most popular issue for the conference
After an inconclusive show of hands in the conference hall in Brighton, a card vote showed just under 80% of CLP votes backing the motion. But the votes from affiliates – almost entirely comprising unions – were 95% opposed. The eventual result was nearly 58% against
But hey ho… don’t let anything as inconvenient as facts get in the way of the unhinged anti-Starmer ramblings that must apparently take over every single politics thread. You lot do seem to inhabit some kind of alternative universe 🙄
Anyway, this Rishi Sunak bloke…? The one the thread is meant to be about? He’s the prime minister apparently, not Keir Starmer? Doing a good job then? Everything tickity boo if it wasn’t for those fascist bastards presently leading the Labour Party?
Clearly Sunak is not doing a good job but neither is the person who is supposedly in a position to oppose all the shit Sunak is doing and because of that he continues to do all the shit he is doing, pretty much backed up by the future leader.
Yes back to Starmer again, are you seeing why he gets mentioned in the same thread now?
Anyway, back to the actual thread topic and an interesting analysis of Sunak and his clear disappointment with us as an electorate for failing to appreciate his obvious genius:
Powerless in the face of Britain’s crises, Rishi Sunak has now entered his self-pitying era
On some level, Sunak’s pained parent doling out hard truths persona is familiar from Thatcherite ideology: a morality tale in which self-sacrifice pays out. But Sunak delivers it with condescending impatience rather than sobriety, revealing something deeper about himself. It is hard to avoid the impression that here is a man who has eschewed a peaceful private life making even more exorbitant sums of money in finance in order to publicly serve – and is now annoyed that it’s all a bit more of a pain than he frankly has the patience for. The British people are not shareholders who he can placate with a PowerPoint presentation spelling out the financial picture, but people who have pesky feelings about being able to eat and house themselves, who are rightly making demands about an economic system that has failed them.
Anyway, back to the actual thread topic
My comment was on topic, it was about Sunak and how he can continue on his merry way. You may not like it - maybe post a hilarious image for the 197th time to try and not have to deal with what is actually happening?
It is hard to avoid the impression that here is a man who has eschewed a peaceful private life making even more exorbitant sums of money in finance in order to publicly serve – and is now annoyed that it’s all a bit more of a pain than he frankly has the patience for.
Johnson was (sort of) the same. No interest in the difficult parts of actually leading/governing although at least when he was Mayor he delegated stuff to mostly decent people to do while he ran around getting "IT lessons", some Olympic poncing around and dreaming of garden bridges.
Once he became PM, he didn't even bother to do that, it was all just too much like hard work and details which he had neither the patience nor the talent for.
He could have quite happily sat around writing total bollocks for the Telegraph on £250,000 a year but oh no.
Sunak seems to be permanently irritated that he can't just toss off some old bollocks he read in a management consultancy textbook and everything will miraculously sort itself out.
So he's his inherent laziness in common with Johnson, but for the rest of it he's more Liz Truss. Why bother with any policy or anything as difficult as that when you can just ponce around in private jets, fleet of photographers in tow, for the latest banal and pointless, but beautifully shot social media update
'Both party leaders agree that people’s expectations must be tempered, horizons narrowed. It speaks volumes about the direction of British politics that, as a general election looms, their job is finding more ways to promise nothing.'
Both
Here’s a report on the actual vote on PR at the Labour conference. The real one, as opposed to the weird fictional version of it that appears to exist in your head…
The "weird fictional version" which you claim exists only in my head was last year's Labour Party Conference.
This year in 2023, the conference which you extensively quote from was in 2021. Last year's Labour Party Conference (2022) thanks to backing from trade unions, voted in favour of proportional representation.
As I said earlier, you need to keep up to date with current affairs a tad better binners, especially if you are going to launch self-righteous rants.
Public opinion on PR has shifted. For the first time now the majority of Labour voters support PR, as do now the majority of trade unions.
The only thing now stopping PR becoming Labour Party policy is the subject of your unhinged adulation - Keir Starmer.
Course he doesn't, he's instrumental in it getting out of control in the first place and all the other cost of living issues and it's not like prices are falling, they're still going up so people are still getting worse off.
Seems the Torygraph is less than enamored with the current regime their rank hypocrisy knows no bounds :/
I spoke too soon about Rishi not going for the toe-curlingly embarrassing 'someone get me an England shirt so I can pretend I know what football is' moment
I should have known better, I suppose
https://twitter.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/1693526190122782828?s=20
He's so clueless that he even left the tags on the England top. Even Priti Patel remembered to take hers tags off, even though it still had all the folded creases on where it'd just come out of the packaging
“For my daughters, and for every girl in this country, you have made football something for them; you have made them feel they belong on the pitch. So – in a way – you’ve already brought football home."
“All that remains is to bring the trophy home too – and the whole nation is rooting for you... But whatever the result, I want you to know that you have already secured a lasting legacy: that every girl in this country will have equal access to all school sports, including football.”
About that legacy... is that a policy re-announcement...?
It's a long way from that policy for funding for "select schools" and awards for the few schools that do offer equal access, to achieving that access for... "every girl in this country".
Sunak really needs to come up with something fast ..... barges for asylum seekers and falling inflation doesn't seem to be cutting it, as the next general election slowly but relentlessly gets closer with every new day.
The very latest opinion poll:
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1694025320628728128
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1694026331493740942
I was surprised just how unpopular the Tories became under Liz Truss, I continue to be surprised how badly they are still faring under Sunak. The slick presentation created by image makers charging fat fees doesn't seem to be fooling voters.
Sunak really needs to come up with something fast
I really do think he's given up. I mean, you would, wouldn't you? You've no idea what you are doing, you're already minted, everyone hates you anyway, so what's the point?
I continue to be surprised how badly they are still faring under Sunak.
Well, image and sentiment aren't rational values that respond in a linear manner to stimulus. Once people have given up on you that's pretty much it. People aren't looking at the Tories' output and evaluating it versus Labour, even subconsciously. The idea that Tories are shit has become accepted in popular culture, and it will take a long time (or dramatic circumstances) for that to change. Like with Skoda.
Most people don't give a toss about politics, mainly as the 'they're all the same anyway' attitude is now all-pervasive. They only notice when this stuff imposes itself on their real lives by force.
So the Tory's have done 2 things that they simply aren't ever going to come back from.
Too many people experienced genuine hardship during covid, and were rightly appalled by footage of Boris and chums partying and basically mocking them as they couldn't even go to funerals or visit dying relatives.
The main thing though was Mad Lizzie and Kamikwasi's insane mini-budget. I'm convinced that people are so apathetic in this country, in the main, that you can do pretty much what you like as a party of government, but woe betide you if your actions put huge sums of money onto the mortgage repayments of Mr and Mrs Middle England
And rightfully so
Rishi can do what he likes he an bang on about post-covid-recovery and Vladimir Putin and blah, blah, blah... whatever... but people just aren't buying it and never will.
They just look at their back statements, look how much less money they have than they did 18 months ago and all they see in their head is this....
Lil' Rishi can try and disassociate himself from that as much as he likes, but he's up to his neck in it, so is on a hiding to nothing. Mad Lizzie started the whole economic debacle, but the decline in peoples real incomes and living standards has continued on the same trajectory under his watch and shows no signs of abating.
The dead cats of barges and Rwanda just aren't going to cut it when Mr and Mrs suburban semi-detached can't go out for a meal on Friday night any more because their mortgage payment is now 900 quid a month more than it was this time last year
I was surprised just how unpopular the Tories became under Liz Truss
You are in a very small minority there (outside Tory party members).
Most people don’t give a toss about politics, mainly as the ‘they’re all the same anyway’ attitude is now all-pervasive.
Oh and I wonder why that is?
Because it is *practically* the same - there is no push back from the hit duo of Reeves and Starmer. The 90s shit show that is a lame Thatcherite cover version.
Mad Lizzie started the whole economic debacle, but the decline in peoples real incomes and living standards has continued on the same trajectory under his watch and shows no signs of abating.
No she didn't. The BoE were already raising rates. Do people even check the facts?
Economic decline has been about for a long long time. Only just recently stopped a few Centrist's Ski trips - so the likes of Carol Vorderman are now piping up.
For the record - the Tory party are now bullshitting down the national debt (national credit) again with a view to pushing the same type of tax cuts that Truss forced upon the rest of us.
Too many people experienced genuine hardship during covid, and were rightly appalled by footage of Boris and chums partying and basically mocking them as they couldn’t even go to funerals or visit dying relatives.
Good point - I think that affair was unprecedented, I'm not sure it has any parallels?
Mad Lizzie started the whole economic debacle
Kind of, but also kind of not. Don't forget, everyone knew she was shit, but the reason we got shit candidates was that no-one with any intelligence wanted the job, they are all staying away from the shit-show that started with Brexit.
Because it is *practically* the same – there is no push back from the hit duo of Reeves and Starmer. The 90s shit show that is a lame Thatcherite cover version.
That is because the public finances are in such a bad way that Starmer and Reeves cannot possibly do anything now. Shadow something or other minister was on C4 news last night trotting out same shit as a reason that Labour probably won't be able to make the lives and outcomes of kids in care just a bit better although they would love to, honest.
That is because the public finances are in such a bad way that Starmer and Reeves cannot possibly do anything now
I'm sorry that's simply not true at all in any way shape or form (although yeah they're not in power but they're talking up fiscal credibility NOW. Reading Reeves' tweets is a diabolical experience of fragmented 90's Wall Street chat)
Public finances are a matter of political will/choices. They don't use/need the money from the private sector in the first place.
The private sector moves money around that was spent into prior existience. Without that spending there will be no growth anyway. Any growth follows the prior spending of targetted government money which is exactly why we have next to no growth now. (Not that I'm an advocate of limitless growth.)
Think of it like this - currently the government is a net payer of interest to wealthy people - And yet the public finances are in bad health!
I had a cold call from 3rd party this morning on behalf of the BoE asking why business aren't borrowing money. Yep you can't make it up.
I was surprised just how unpopular the Tories became under Liz Truss
You are in a very small minority there (outside Tory party members).
So how come you didn't predict that the opinion polls would be showing 50% support for Labour, and half of that for the Tories, if it was that obvious to you, and apparently the vast majority, that the Tories would be that unpopular?
It is easy to say "I knew that would happen" after the event, but no one, no one, predicted just how unpopular the Tories would be under Liz Truss.
Including you.
There’s a whole thread about how shit she’d be as PM, bad for the country, self destructive for her party, and that she’d be sacked as leader in a few short months as support for her party would inevitably fall still further. Utterly unsuitable and completely out of her depth in the role. Lots of people pointing all that out, including me. She was a deluded joke from day one. Just a few voices telling us how we were underestimating her. No hindsight required, it was bloody obvious from the start to (nearly) everyone.
Oh ipredicted it which is why I wanted her as pm for longer
It was completely obvious what was going to happen with Truss
Yeah everyone knew that she would be a hopelessly bad PM, and it was obvious that she would be less popular than Boris Johnson.
But no one predicted just how unpopular the Tories would become under Liz Truss, including you Kelvin. Nowhere in that ^^ thread before Truss became PM do you suggest that support for Labour would rise to 50% or more, with the Tories on half of that.
No one predicted the disastrous "mini budget" before it happened. And no one foresaw the level of damage it would do the Tories. Despite your totally unfeasible claim that you, and everyone else, had predicted exactly what happened 😆
In fact as I recall the claim was repeatedly and widely made that it wouldn't matter, in terms of support for the Tories, if the they swung to the right, as apparently the mythical "red wall voters" love that sort of stuff. Unsurprisingly that turned out to be a load of bollox.
No one predicted the disastrous “mini budget” before it happened
True. Even those of us with the very lowest of expectations didn’t think she’d do anything that mental
She surpassed all expectations and then some
Sunaks efforts to try and distance himself from it, as if it was another party that he was nothing to do with, are completely doomed. All anyone has to do is look at their bank statements for a constant reminder
their mortgage payment is now 900 quid a month more than it was this time last year
Supposedly Kwarteng was overheard somewhere complaining that his mortgage payment has gone up…
It doesn’t surprise me. It’s up there with Brexit minister Dominic Raab being surprised to discover that the Dover Calais crossing is quite important to trade with the EU
How the **** did we end up with these clueless simpletons running the country?
Oh yeah…
Sunaks efforts to try and distance himself from it, as if it was another party that he was nothing to do with
Yup, Liz Truss has had a lasting toxic effect on the Tory brand. If they ever fully recover it will take years. I can see a real possibility of UK politics fragmenting.
You can go and find my posts if you want Ernie.
I knew she would be a disaster electorally and politically which is why I wanted her to be PM to eff the tories over good and proper and was disappointed she lasted such a little time - but it had the effect I hoped for and predicted anyway
It was a wee bit suprising how quickly and how deeply it happened but it was totally predictable that is was going to happen
I knew she would be a disaster electorally and politically which is why I wanted her to be PM to eff the tories over good and proper and was disappointed she lasted such a little time – but it had the effect I hoped for and predicted anyway
The slight problem with saying that TJ is that it appears that you were almost hoping for UK-wide financial ruin with the associated negative impacts on savings, mortgage payments, inflation etc.... It's not a great look to be honest.
Yes, she was a disaster but sort of gloating in it doesn't come across well.
IMHO.
I knew she would be a disaster electorally and politically which is why I wanted her to be PM to eff the tories over good and proper and was disappointed she lasted such a little time – but it had the effect I hoped for and predicted anyway
Er, yeah, no one is disputing that. I too said that she would be less popular than Johnson. But no one predicted just how unpopular the Tories would become under her premiership, nor the deep lasting effect it would have.
In fact I was told by some that red wall voters would love the Tories swinging to the right as apparently they are all right-wing racists, something which I have always strongly disputed.
So where did you predict that Labour would be on 50% and the Tories on half of that like in the latest opinion poll TJ? Which was my point when I said that I was surprised just how unpopular the Tories have remained.
I fact I thought you claimed that Keir Starmer's position on the EU was costing Labour support TJ? No?
Here's that poll again which I was initially referring to TJ:
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1694025320628728128
How do you explain 50% support for Labour, if according to you their stance on brexit is costing them votes?
Do you think it should be 60 or 70 percent?
Or are the pollsters completely wrong?
Do we really have to do this again?
the pools show a very unpopular ltory party - its not a positive vote for labour
the labour vote is very soft
yes its 100% true that Stamers absurd and pusillanimous stance on brexit is costing him votes. Polling and recent byelections show this clearly. Labourtr only gains significant votes where there is no pro europe alternative
I myself doubt he will get a working majority at the next GE. watch what happens in the Rutherglen byelection - thats going to be interesting because the local labour candidate is standing on a platform of repudiating several key english labour policies and labour are going to be forced to defend their pro austerity, pro privatization, anti democratic brexiteer stance.
Do we really have to do this again?
Well yes because your claim doesn't stack up. There is no evidence that Starmer's stance on brexit is costing Labour votes.
I myself doubt he will get a working majority at the next GE.
So unlike me you aren't just surprised by the huge unprecedented lead Labour currently has over the Tories, you don't actually believe it.
You reckon that if there was a general election tomorrow Labour would fail to win a majority because Tory support is much higher than it appears?
Or do you reckon the LibDems might end up with as many votes, or more, than the Tories?
there is plenty of data that shows Starmers brexit stance is costing votes. You just do not want to see it because of your huge blindspot over brexit.
the labour vote is very "soft" I do not believe for one moment that will be how it pans out in the election
Look at what its happening in Rutherglen where the local labour candidate has had to repudiate several key labour policies
It all looks very different when you have a pro EU, anti austerity, anti privatization party, pro democracy involved. Starmer is getting a free ride in England over this stuff but he will not be able to in the GE campaign.
You just do not want to see it because of your huge blindspot over brexit.
Blind spot?? You are completely ignoring a poll which shows Labour support on 50% because it doesn't suit your narrative! Talk about hypocrisy!
Whether I think Starmer's stance on brexit is correct or not is completely irrelevant to my opinion of how well Labour are doing in terms of support.
It is clear that I am not a huge fan of Keir Starmer but that doesn't blind me to the fact that Labour are currently riding very high in the polls.
Yes Labour support is soft, basically it reflects just how unpopular the Tories are rather than how popular Labour are. But so what.......does that prove that voters will switch back to the Tories in large numbers on general election day?
Where is the proof that will happen? And where is the proof that it will all be because of brexit, as you claim?
People aren't asked how soft their vote is when they turn up to vote on general election day. If they vote Labour it will be counted as a Labour vote, soft vote or not soft vote.
the pools show a very unpopular ltory party – its not a positive vote for labour
Does that matter at this point?
Does it matter if you lose a few middle class voters if you keep the majority inside?
If I were in Labour management I might well be saying keepmdoing what you're doing. And after you're in power start doing stuff. I mean it's not like a party never changed its mind during a term, is it?
In fact, the "Make Brexit Work" slogan is ideal for this. "Ah well we've done the research and it turns out that we do need to rejoin the CU after all to make Brexit work" etc, or "Now there has been a material change we need to.. " etc
Politics is all about being evasive and upsetting as few people as possible. This demands being as vague as you can be whilst hiding what you really want to do.
My bet is a lot of them will not vote labour but abstain or vote for othe rparties
Rutherglen is going to be really interesting - it needs a 5% swing to labour to take it with the SNP in disarray and a ex SNP MP in disgrace
They will be challenged from the left and from a pro EU position. their candidate has had to repudiate several key labour policies. anything less than a big labour win with a 15% plus swing will show that labour are not on course for a majority
Politics is all about being evasive and upsetting as few people as possible. This demands being as vague as you can be whilst hiding what you really want to do.
Not the view from here( Scotland). truthfullness and honour is widely regarded as positive. mealy mouthed weasel words do not go down well. Look at what is happening in the rutherglan byelection
My bet is a lot of them will not vote labour but abstain or vote for othe rparties
The latest seat prediction based on the current level of support for each party suggests a Labour 272 seat majority, what level of abstention are expecting for that not to happen....50%?
And what other party do you expect voters might support if they don't like Labour's stance on brexit?
Look at what is happening in the rutherglan byelection
I have no idea what is happening in the ruthergan by-election. Are the Tories doing really well? Because Tory support needs in increase very substantially between now and the next general election if they are to rob Labour of a majority.
Edit: I decided to Google Rutherglen by-election to find out what is happening, as suggested by you. This is what I found:
What am I suppose to conclude from that?
It might be informative for you to read up on it.
The local labour candidate has had to repudiate several key labour policies and labour are being pushed hard from the left. The candidate will not try to defend these labour policies. SNP had a 5% lead with the party in turmoil now and a ex SNP mp recalled for criminal behaviour
if labourt do not take it with a big majority it shows how vulnerable they are to attack from the left
if labourt do not take it with a big majority it shows how vulnerable they are to attack from the left
Rutherglen is a safe SNP seat and it would appear that Labour are expected to do well in the forthcoming by-election.
Why do you think this vindicates your claim that Labour are losing votes?
And you realise that the SNP don't stand in 90% of the seats in a general election don't you?
Where do you think this attack from the left might come from?
For Labour not to form the next majority government the Tories have to do reasonably well, where is the evidence to suggest that might happen?
I agree with your claim concerning shy Tories, and I have little doubt that the gap between Labour and the Tories will be much closer come the general election compared to what it is right now.
But the starting point is so huge that it is not feasible to believe the gap will close sufficiently for Labour to be unable to form a majority gov. Currently the gap between Labour and the Tories is actually widening.
I suspect that come the general election the Tories won't get less than 30% and Labour not a lot more than 40%. Although I am not predicting anything, it is just what I think is likely to happen.
Rutherglen is a safe SNP seat
No its not.
I suspect that come the general election the Tories won’t get less than 30% and Labour not a lot more than 40%.
thats firmly in hung parliament territory Labour need a 10% poll lead to be the largest party
the point about Rutherglen is that labour are going to have to defend their stance as brexiteers, anti democracy, pro privitisation pro austerity. all policies that do not go down well with the electorate UK wide. At the moment they are not challenged on this stuff at all. In the GE the neutrality rules will mean that pro EU anti austerity anti privitisation voices have to get a platform and thus labour will have to defend these policies. Rutherglan the local labour candidate has had to repudiate these policies already because he knows that they will cost him his chance
anyway - we will get a telling off from Binners shortly 🙂