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Sunak almost certainly keeping friends with the BoE in the timing of reduced interest rates for an election. I think that's why he needs the time.
Pivot soon on rates.
Perfect Tory bullshit festival.
Although as we know interest rates did little to lower inflation as inflation was on its way down.
(Got to giggle at Bell saying no one saw this coming. Plenty of non-classical economists pointed this out last year.)
Savings versus the lag on fixed mortgage rates helped this one along.
In fact higher interest rates were very good for some folk. I'm taking a guess that the the MPC realised getting to 6% rates would likely tip the balance away from interest earners to people with struggling debt, with all the mortgages about to expire
https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1743215764285317593?t=x_PgVgPcm62RfTu3U5p1dg&s=19
Interest rates in the USA have amounted to a 6% equivalent of deficit spending into the economy. So the US has been booming along on many metrics.
None of this is good for inequality though.
https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1743218094644908138?t=GfzKlvVMifb4YRyIkOPRvQ&s=19
Suddenly it will be we've cut interest rates - despite leaning heavily away from the BoE being independent when it suits them.
Anyway the Tories are quietly 'banking'on an interest rate turnaround. That's their magic bullet.
So to recap we paid a load of interest income to boomers (probably mostly Tory) and made it appear like we're tackling inflation - which helped offset their inflation.
Now we're about to lower rates and celebrate that as an achievement and probably pump the hose market again.
Monetarism really is a dire farce.
It might be just enough for the Tories to make a bit of ground and push small boats away for a bit
On top of this markets across the world have mostly ended on an apparently' unexpected' (big lol to anyone who didn't realise adding interest money to the economy goes into assets) high and the pound has rallied. Etc.
Capitalism doing its thing for a few very wealthy people. But I bet you don't feel wealthier?
*house market.
Hose market is doing just fine.
My hose shares just doublet.
None of this is good for inequality though.
Luckily we are on a Sunak thread so that doesn't matter.
Yougov showing a pretty consistent 20pt deficit for the Tories
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1744666246182813837
and Sunak at his lowest ever approval rating of 18%!
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1744656536759152651
His latest relaunch (is this about the 5th?), which seems to involve flying around the country in his helicopter delivering uninspiring messages to bored-looking Tory activists, really isn't going well, is it?
A nice summary by John Crace...
Rish! frets that Starmer will take us back to square one. But we’re at square minus four
rone
Free MemberAnyway the Tories are quietly ‘banking’on an interest rate turnaround.
Or, realistically, just enough of a fall in interest rates to convince stupid people that it's all fixed. That's been the messaging all along "we'll half inflation" OH ok but that's still quite high and does nothing to reverse the harm people have suffered from the high period, anything else "we'll half inflation, half is less"
Klunk is an empiricist social scientist, laughed like a drain.
possibly but I was quite drunk when I wrote that :D. Wellingborough had a bit of character 20 yrs ago, interesting market stalls and second hand book shops.... you know you've hit rock bottom when even mcdonalds gets out of Dodge.
Conspiracy Rishi there, not only failing completely to understand basic planning concepts but allowing it to be repeated across departments.
One of our riding gang was absolutely convinced about this not been able to drive more than 15 mins, we told him it was a good thing as it would keep our end of the valley only for local riders 🙂
Wellingborough had a bit of character 20 yrs ago, interesting market stalls and second hand book shops…. you know you’ve hit rock bottom when even mcdonalds gets out of Dodge.
But, but, the local MP has been leading the charge for regeneration and pride in the town!
Id not heard of the 15 minutes cities thing till a cashier in my local coop was very animated in telling a customer she obviously knew to look it up as he "wouldn't believe what they are going to do."
I'm guessing she's read it all on FB to be honest. It's amazing for make people get their entire news input from FB and the Luke these days. It explains a lot.
Id not heard of the 15 minutes cities thing till a cashier in my local coop was very animated in telling a customer she obviously knew to look it up as he “wouldn’t believe what they are going to do.”
I’m guessing she’s read it all on FB to be honest. It’s amazing for make people get their entire news input from FB and the Luke these days. It explains a lot.
These nutters appear quite regularly on local face book “spotted” groups. When you try to engage to point out their nonsense they accuse you of being a sheep. Oh the ironing 😂
Saw Lil Rishys TV ad earlier , boasting how he has reduced “the boats” by 36% . No Rishy , that’ll be the weather that’s done that love 🤦♂️
^^ Yeah, conspiracy types don't do irony. Lol
I got a campaign flyer through this afternoon from Labour. They are definitely preparing for a potential snap election in may, should it happen. It's entirely possible it might of course, so I'm glad to see they are gearing for the coming battle.
I suspect it's going to be a nasty decisive campaign from the Tories and they will be attempting to throw as much shit Starmer's way as possible.
They have nothing to lose.
It’s all going to end up being a bloody big mess isn’t it. A lot of people are either not going to bother to vote , or just close their eyes and pick one that is not the Tories .
All parties will all say we will do this , or do that , but when it comes down to it , they are all full of shit and rarely do what they promise.
revs1972
Free Member
It’s all going to end up being a bloody big mess isn’t it. A lot of people are either not going to bother to vote , or just close their eyes and pick one that is not the Tories .
All parties will all say we will do this , or do that , but when it comes down to it , they are all full of shit and rarely do what they promise.
I hear you but I'm a little more optimistic. I think there's never been a time when the difference between the two main parties is easier to see. The corruption, constant scandals, profiteering, and complete disdain the current government show for it's own populace. I never thought I'd live to see a government like the current Tory party. I see none of this in Labour/LibDems even if I don't agree with all their policies.
I've no doubt Labour is going to really struggle to turnthe UK around in a single term, even two. Everything is utterly broken.
When I wake up to see a Labour government after the GE though (I really hope, or LibDem/Green coalition would be fine!) I'll at least feel like we have a government that isn't actively trying to f**** over 99% of its population. That'll be a good enough start for me.
Saw Lil Rishys TV ad earlier , boasting how he has reduced “the boats” by 36% . No Rishy , that’ll be the weather that’s done that love
To be fair, the number of boats has probably reduced because of the deal we did to send Albanians back.
Which is nothing to do with the Rwanda plan.
I think there’s never been a time when the difference between the two main parties is easier to see
As far as I can tell Labour's pitch is, 'We're the Tories but competent.'
For people who liked the Tories back in 2014 it's great. For those of us who didn't, not so much.
I think there’s never been a time when the difference between the two main parties is easier to see
Strange comment as to me they have never been closer. Yes the tories are more corrupt, profiteering etc,. but they always have been it is just more blatant now. On policy and what difference they will make there is little difference.
They were a lot more different just 6 few years ago when that horrible Corbyn man was leading Labour with policies and beliefs that actually looked like Labour ones.
I've nothing against Corbyn, his Brexit stance not withstanding. I voted for him twice.
However the inconvenient reality is that he wasn't elected. I have no wish to see Labour in eternal opposition. It just ensures the Tories stay in power and I don't think the country can afford that luxury.
As far as the Tories and Labour being the same? It's a pretty extraordinary statement and one that I predict won't be shared by the majority of voters in a GE just as it hasn't been shared by voters in the by-elections of late.
If you wish to vote Tory as you see them as the same as Labour, that is for you and your conscience but it's not something I will be a part of.
As far as the Tories and Labour being the same? It’s a pretty extraordinary statement and one that I predict won’t be shared by the majority of voters in a GE just as it hasn’t been shared by voters in the by-elections of late.
OK, can you give any examples of Labour policies that aren't basically the same as the Tories?
It seems pretty much every time Labour find they have a policy that is different to the Tories they change it to whatever the Tories are doing and say, 'We'll do the same thing but not shit'.
This article is 7 months old and the policies of the two parties have converged even more since then.
Like I said, if you were a 2015 Tory supporter (or even a 2015 UKIP supporter) then this Labour government is pretty much a perfect fit for you. Not for the rest of us, unfortunately.
If you wish to vote Tory as you see them as the same as Labour, that is for you and your conscience but it’s not something I will be a part of.
I haven't seen anyone on here say they are planning on voting Tory in a long time. Unless you are one of those people who consider any vote that is not for Labour a vote for the Tories?
Like I said, if you were a 2015 Tory supporter (or even a 2015 UKIP supporter) then this Labour government is pretty much a perfect fit for you.
Sorry Bruce but if you believe my stance to be supportive of UKIP and Labour to be a surrogate for their policies then there isn't much to be productively discussed here.
I appreciate the discussion but it's not something I wish to be mired in as it's obvious that we are miles apart on this.
I fully understand that you also want better for the country and it's people but our preferred way of achieving that are contradictory I'm afraid.
If you wish to vote Tory as you see them as the same as Labour, that is for you and your conscience but it’s not something I will be a part of.
I vote Green. I did vote Labour in Corbyn years and did have some hope for Starmer on day one but he is just turning into a tory more each day. If you think there will be any noticeable difference to peoples lives under a Starmer Labour then I think you will be disappointed but we can check that out in a few years time.
From my perspective there is a considerable difference between the conservatives and Labour. Labour get branded as having the same policies but quite a few on here, but it misses the fundamental message starmer and co are making, which is we need to cost up what we are planning to do and fund what's realistic [rone - I know all the arguments before you chip in]. Whether or not you agree with that, they are taking a rational approach. The big picture stuff; new houses, investment in the NHS, green economy, etc. Is a differentiator to the Tories and is progressive
We haven't had policy details yet because why show your hand to this unscrupulous set of bastards.
Who wants a wager that as soon as lil rish calls the election a whacking manifesto from labour gets published?
I reckon there's a whole raft of policies that will get saved back for after the spring budget so the Tories can't counter them before an election
To me it feels like labour are playing poker and rishi is playing snap
I appreciate the discussion but it’s not something I wish to be mired in as it’s obvious that we are miles apart on this.
Asking how Labour policies are significantly different from Tory policies always goes the same way:
Followed by:
I can't possibly discuss this with you as we are simply too far apart. Good day, sir!
'Labour are just the same' will be a classic attack line from Tory shills and client media over the next six months. And if you can't tell any difference between them and the weird Alan B'stard tribute acts currently running the shop, you need to give your head a wobble.
We haven’t had policy details
Yeah we have. The problem is they keep abandoning the policies that aren't the same as the Tory ones.
And if you can’t tell any difference between them and the weird Alan B’stard tribute acts currently running the shop, you need to give your head a wobble.
For the third time of asking then, what are the policy differences?
I can’t possibly discuss this with you as we are simply too far apart. Good day, sir!
I won't change your opinion and you won't change mine and I've no inclination to be involved in the perma arguments in the political threads. It's nothing more than that I'm afraid. If you wish to take it as validation of your position I don't mind that at all.
what are the policy differences?
Pick a policy area? Oil, gas, health, education, water, housing, taxation?
Pick any, and I for one would be happy to discuss it in the Starmer thread.
https://labourlist.org/2023/05/labour-manifesto-2024-election-what-policies-npf-party/
Most of this draft stuff is likely to be in the manifesto... although when we actually get that is down to Sunak announcing he’s ready for the election that voters overwhelmingly want now not later…
I won’t change your opinion
Not trying to change anyone's opinion, just trying to establish the differences in policy between Labour and Tories.
Labour are going to build 1.5 million new homes. The Tories are going to build 300k per year.
Labour are 'committed' to the Green transition. The Tories are apparently also 'committed'.
If you want to say you think the Tories are lying then I'd 100% agree with that. Doesn't change the fact they are saying they are going to do the same things. Labour even admit that, saying they are going to do the same things but less shit.
In the short term the country would almost certainly be better off under a Labour government. In the long term, it is going to make not one bit of difference. People's lives are not going to improve in any noticeable way and in six years time the country is going to elect a raving right wing fantasist government after the hopes people had for improvement under Labour are dashed.
It's not 1997 and a 10 year long debt fueled party that everyone is invited to is not on the cards.
Sticking with the status quo is a very dangerous tactic.
although when we actually get that is down to Sunak announcing he’s ready for the election that voters overwhelmingly want now not later…
I was down at my Mum's in London last week and answered the door (Mum was in the bathroom) to the local Labour Councillors who were out doing some canvassing. It's a Labour Council where she lives, pretty much always has been and they significantly increased their majority in the last round of council elections so it's a very safe seat but they're clearly upping their presence and being out and about, they said to me they expect a GE to be in May.
Most of this draft stuff is likely to be in the manifesto…
Does that include the stuff they've already rolled back on?
https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/labour-cuts-back-28bn-green-investment-pledge-again/
I sometimes think we're better off just waiting for Sunak's latest brainfart to find out what Labour next policy is going to be.
It's too easy to lose sight of the bottom line in all this - we need rid of the person this thread is about in as convincing a manner as possible, and we need rid of the bottom-feeders around him wherever possible too.
The polls will tighten, and the outcome (or the scale of it) is by no means certain. Perhaps with a thumping majority, and the prospect of two or three terms in power, Labour will be a bit bolder, and we'll get more of the stuff on our wishlist.
If our apathy gives the Tories a chance to rebuild quickly, then we have only ourselves to blame for substituting a Labour government that is not socialist enough for a Tory one whose culture wars have taken them even further rightwards.
@crazy-legs - I've been out delivering labour party leaflets this morning, which were sent out by central office to every constituency in the country this week.
Absolutely nobody is buying Rishi's Autumn election nonsense and are instead working on the certainty that the General Election will be at the same time as the local elections in May. From here on in its election mode.
Labour cuts back £28bn green investment pledge again
Already discussed in the Starmer thread. All the targets remain the same. Suank has increased the baseline, by announcing £8 billion of his own. Amount to be invested by Labour is still the same as originally announced. 2030 deadline still in place.
Let's not copy and paste that whole discussion here... or this'll become another circular thread for all but the same five people to avoid opening. But here's Starmer being questioned on this recently...
Asked about the 2030 commitment, he told Wilfred Frost on Sky News: "I'm not prepared to move that date. People keep saying to me, are you moving back on your goal? No, we're not - clean power by 2030.
"But look, it's absolutely clear to me that the Tories are trying to weaponise this issue, the £28bn, etc.
"It's a fight I want to have, if we can have a fight going into the election between an incoming Labour government that wants to invest in the future long-term strategy that will lower our bills and give us energy independence, versus stagnation, more of the same under this government.
"If they want that fight on borrow to invest, I'm absolutely up for that."
As good a thread as any to post this.
The government has confirmed by-elections will take place next month in two Conservative-held constituencies.
The by-elections must take place within 27 days of the writ, and are expected to be held on 15 February.
I'm sad enough to say I'll be having a late night to see the results come in!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67943546
It’s too easy to lose sight of the bottom line in all this – we need rid of the person this thread is about in as convincing a manner as possible
Actually, I believe the bottom line is to finally start shifting the country away from the right wing populist fever dream it seems to have found itself in.
Getting rid of the Tories does no good if it ensures a disappointing Labour government ends up delivering a Braverman or Badenoch led borderline fascist government in 6 years time.
Not holding Labour and Starmer to account for their repeated U-turns is not helping that goal.
just trying to establish the differences in policy between Labour and Tories.
Sunak used to be a hedge fund manager and made millions in the stock market crash of 2008; and Starmer used to be a human rights lawyer.
Sunak used to be a hedge fund manager and made millions in the stock market crash of 2008; and Starmer used to be a human rights lawyer.
That in no way shape or form tells us anything about Labour or Starmer's direction. In fact no one knows anything about Starmer's direction. Not even Starmer - it appears.
(I've no love of hedge funders either.)
The main economic model going forward looks to be unchanged to me.
Already discussed in the Starmer thread. All the targets remain the same. Suank has increased the baseline, by announcing £8 billion of his own. Amount to be invested by Labour is still the same as originally announced. 2030 deadline still in place.
It might be discussed but it's not resolved other than fiscal rules.
Besides 28Bn won't touch the sides.
Sunak used to be a hedge fund manager and made millions in the stock market crash of 2008; and Starmer used to be a human rights lawyer.
I have no doubt he is a perfectly good chap.
Sunak used to be a hedge fund manager and made millions in the stock market crash of 2008; and Starmer used to be a human rights lawyer.
As Sunak would be able to quote previous performance is no indication of future performance.
Liz Truss used to be a libdem and a firm republican yet when she took office she immediately went off to see the queen and...ahhh.