Forecasts are that miles driven will increase with a largescale move to EVs. The marginal cost of each mile driven with EVs and current tax arrangements mean you'd be daft to own an EV and not use it for every journey. Without radical change to taxation the current EV boom is leading us to a place with more congestion and road miles.
Anyone believing that a move away from fossil fuels will lead to a society with less congested roads, cleaner air, safer streets and more active travel needs to be campaigning for aggressive taxation of EVs alongside a decrease in ICE use.
I was surprised to hear on R4 this morning that pre-panic the average petrol station visit was to buy £28 or thereabouts of petrol, and that people shouldn’t fill up. Which squares with the £30 maximum spend I’ve seen at a few stations. News to me as I only ever fill up – tend to go from empty and on the fill up now light to full, to minimise trips to the petrol station. Why would anyone do otherwise?
I do that sometimes. If I’m going to visit family and know I’ll do (say) 300 miles this weekend, and I don’t have 300 miles worth in the tank, I’ll fill up first to save me having to do it over the weekend. If I remember.
Until this week I have never filled up without either the light being on, or on the start of a long journey where I know I wont have enough to complete said journey.
Always filled to the brim. As mentioned above - even in my first job after uni, I had an old inefficient car and a long commute, was filling up nearly every week - pointless avoiding paying when you know you will need to pay again before the next payday.
Will this crisis make people question their life choices in being wholly and slavishly dependent on fossil fuels and internal combustion for their entire basic mobility needs?
Most definitely not. Nobody learns anything from these events. They just go back to exactly how they were before.
Here in Europe we could well soon expect a shortage of popcorn if this shitshow continues.
Back from the hunt!
Of the 5 petrol stations within a 1 mile radius of me in Cardiff only 1 has fuel so it has a queue blocking off Newport Road. It's the most expensive one too, the dodgy Texaco*. Tesco, Morrisons, Sainsbury's and Shell are all bone dry and have been since yesterday. The Texaco is limiting everyone to £35 which was fine for me (£40 brims the tank) but there were a few people arguing with the marshall on the forecourt about it. I did notice that I was the only one who turned their engine off while stationary for the 2-3 minutes it takes each car to fill up and leave the pump, even the taxis weren't doing it.
Should be fine for fuel for a week at least now.
* one of the staff got done for skimming cards a few years ago and there has been issues with the prices displayed on the main sign, the pumps and what you get charged not tallying up too. It's usually a ghost town there with just taxis and fuel card people using it.
Well that's me on fumes now. 6 garages visited this morning, no fuel. I was on a site visit and tried every garage on the way home. Those included Shell, BP, and Texaco.
Looks like I wont be going anywhere for the next few days.
Forecasts are that miles driven will increase with a largescale move to EVs. The marginal cost of each mile driven with EVs and current tax arrangements mean you’d be daft to own an EV and not use it for every journey.
Whose forecasts? Sounds like bobbins to me.
or just cars in general... they're a huge source of problems notwithstanding this current crisis (which is hopefully not going to become a regular occurrence, but you never know!)... pollution, time wasted in traffic jams, obesity etc. One of my FB friends must post at least 3 times a week how he's stuck in a massive jam (normally M25) but seems to just accept it as inevitable with no possible solution!Will this crisis make people question their life choices in being wholly and slavishly dependent on fossil fuels and internal combustion for their entire basic mobility needs?
Someone else on the local FB page has very hesitantly mooted the idea of a lift-sharing scheme of some kind... whether that will be seen through or just forgotten about when the current crisis is resolved, who knows.
There were people on the BBC news this morning being interviewed, incandescent with rage, some even in tears... we're (mainly) a very densely population island, it's only going to get worse, why are most people so in thrall to the motor car, and unwilling to do anything about it? Nothing about it is sustainable or healthy (physically or mentally!)
Blaming the media is just lazy
All the rest of your points were perfectly valid, but the media isn't interested in telling the true story - what they want is 'OMG there's a crisis' - consume our content.
Forecasts are that miles driven will increase with a largescale move to EVs. The marginal cost of each mile driven with EVs and current tax arrangements mean you’d be daft to own an EV and not use it for every journey.
Whose forecasts? Sounds like bobbins to me.
Well, road use is still steadily increasing every year, so seems reasonable that if EVs make it even cheaper than the alternatives this trend will continue. Although the tax hole from fuel duty will have to be filled somehow in any case, so doubt EVs will remain cheaper per mile in the long term.
Long-term impact of COVID remains to be seen.... possibly more Teams rather than in-person meetings. But countering that people less happy to travel on crowded public transport?
https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/summary
pre-panic the average petrol station visit was to buy £28 or thereabouts of petrol,
I was utterly gobsmacked by this. I didn't think anyone had put less than £40 worth in their car since last century.
Quite sobering to think that loads of people are buying £10 or £15 at a time.
🤔
Will this crisis make people question their life choices in being wholly and slavishly dependent on fossil fuels and internal combustion for their entire basic mobility needs?
I think we all know the answer to that
This place is actually unusual as being cyclists and walkers we're probably not as car dependent as a lot of people.
I know plenty of people who would view walking a quarter of a mile to the shop in the same way as trecking across Nepal. They're the ones sat queueing outside petrol stations. Theres millions of them and they've effectively lost the use of their lower limbs
Amazing how this stuff escalates from a fairly low key observation of industrial adversity into a full scale crisis. As soon as the public senses that they are relying on the common-sense of others the system fails. And absolutely no faith in the Govt to be able to sort it out. No trust, no resilience.
Like the 2000 crisis, the petrol companies are laughing. They've made a weeks money in 36 hours. Better the fuel is stored in cars than their tanks, and the money in their account!
clown****s
I like that, must use it at some point.
Worthless anecdote... I'm a semi-rural location, just drove to the dentist and shops and back. On the way back, I drove straight onto a forecourt, and filled up. As noted earlier in thread, it is not a crisis everywhere.
Quite sobering to think that loads of people are buying £10 or £15 at a time.
My Mum does that. Rarely more than £10 at a time. She doesn't do much long-distance driving though so the planning-ahead aspect doesn't matter to her. She's got a bunch of places within a 40-min drive that she visits fairly routinely and there are so many petrol stations that it's easy to stop and just put £10 in. Also, she's in a hybrid so it does actually go further than it initially sounds.
I'm the opposite, if I'm going to stand at a petrol pump I'm going to use the bloody thing to its full potential and it means I don't have to think about fuel again for a month at least!
Very few people who have to drive anywhere are that rich. Plenty that want to are though.
It would certainly make you ask yourself – can I wait till prices drop next week? or can I avoid making this journey? or do I need to fill the tank to the brim and both these 5L cans
And small companies struggling to recover from Covid? Fuel is one of our biggest expenses.
A tank full might last two or 3 days. There isn't at present a suitable electric alternative for our vehicles.
Forecasts are that miles driven will increase with a largescale move to EVs. The marginal cost of each mile driven with EVs and current tax arrangements mean you’d be daft to own an EV and not use it for every journey.
Makes no sense to me. As far as I can see 90%+ of people make no direct correlation between the stuff they put in the tank and the miles they drive. I can't remember any time since I was a student someone saying "I'm not going to take the car to save £". People commented during lockdown on how much they were saving but seem to have happily jumped back behind the wheel, cost really isn't restricting car use in the vast majority of people so EV's aren't going to change that.
Petrol / Diesel is a huge expense for lots of people, I think we spend about £350 a month on it at home.
And therein is actually the much deeper underlying issue. People are burning £350 a month without really noticing... I'll be we could all reduce that just by being a bit more frugal/sensible (I won't drive to the shop, I'll walk; I won't drive to the shop today and tomorrow, I'll get enough to last me two days; I won't drive to the gym - I'll go for a run; I won't sit at 75, I'll sit at 65; I won't leave the roof bars on all the time; I won't leave my toolbox in the car; I won't "just pop down to me parents with this leftover food"...)
There were people on the BBC news this morning being interviewed, incandescent with rage, some even in tears… we’re (mainly) a very densely population island, it’s only going to get worse, why are most people so in thrall to the motor car, and unwilling to do anything about it? Nothing about it is sustainable or healthy (physically or mentally!)
I can't understand it either. I'm a lifelong petrolhead, love a few hours with the spanners when required, have a weekend fun car and watch motorsport. Yet for the last decade have tried to cycle to work or into town whenever I can as it's better for me, my wallet, the environment and more often than not faster. My daily cycle commute is something I miss dearly and want to get back to as soon as I can! Sitting in a queue in a car is bonkers to me yet hundreds of thousands of us do it every day and never question why.
Forecasts are that miles driven will increase with a largescale move to EVs. The marginal cost of each mile driven with EVs and current tax arrangements mean you’d be daft to own an EV and not use it for every journey.
Whose forecasts? Sounds like bobbins to me.
Of the 5 friends I know who have bought EV's only one doesn't use it more than they did when they had an ICE and that's only because they have an old original Leaf as a city car with a max range of 50 miles. The others all have long range new cars (Tesla, Kia and Hyundai) and use them for every journey, even ones they used to walk before. The one with the Hyundai has had their annual mileage go up quite a bit as they now travel further afield for their walks and other leisure activities due to the cost of fuelling the journey being so insignificant, enough that they have had to increase the mileage limit on their lease. So I can see how the terminally lazy will use their electric cars more than the ICE ones.
Emphasised it was a result of a lack of drivers, not supply etc.
Semantics. Think of Turkeys... if we have thousands of them running around, but don't have enough of the people that form the supply chain to get one to your fridge, you have no Turkey to cook. If there's plenty of petrol/diesel, but we don't have enough of the people that form the supply chain to the forecourt, then you can't fill up.
Sit tight, hold out on refuelling as long as you can, things will be fine soon enough. There will be more supply issues again in future, but people should be calmer next time, when they come as less of a surprise, and people are reassured that they will be temporary. We just have to get used to the reality of Brexit Britain. It would be easier if people weren't still being told everything is going to improve, when the reality is that we need to be more resilient consumers, now that our supply chains are less reliable and we have less flexibility to make adjustments to keep them flowing.
Sitting in a queue in a car is bonkers to me yet hundreds of thousands of us do it every day and never question why.
Because we've all been drip fed adverts and magazines and newspapers and all that shizzle in which the almighty motor car has been promoted right left and centre as the single shiny object to show off your success with.
Arriving without your status penis is simply not going to occur to anyone who has spent the entire rest of their lives consuming a diet of four wheel fashion.
We nearly got caught out in the camper this weekend, coming home form holiday. We were only an hour from home and had managed to steer clear of the news all week, so were unaware of what was going on. Happened to overhear a conversation in the pub, and realised we re low enough not to get home so would need fuel.
We left where we were on Friday and literally queued for an hour in a traffic jam because of people waiting for a petrol station 🤦♂️
Ended up taking the cross country route home, found a station (5th we had tried), filled up and went home. Everywhere locally all weekend was out, but thankfully we are Tesla w*nkers so not an issue now.
Quite sobering to think that loads of people are buying £10 or £15 at a time.
🤔
Plenty of people don't have £40 cash at any one time
I’m been wondering if it’s all the fault of the media, and I really don’t know.
A bit from column A a bit from column B I think.
Perhaps it's best to think of fuel distribution before last week being 'adequate' for normal demands, but thanks to Brexit having little resilience, which was essentially what was reported on (perhaps rather sensationally), but then spun into a potential "supply crisis", which in turn became a self fulfilled prophecy because people don't read beyond a headline.
So what should "the media" do?
Not report the fact that fuel supply was essentially in a delicate balance due in no small part to a diminished pool of skilled labour, traceable (at least in part) back to Brexit?
Or keep schtum for fear of exposing our once great nation's weakened state?
It's an editorial decision, but once one outlet has chosen to run such a story, everyone else will follow suit and the panic buying is triggered.
Last time I filled the van, it cut off at £99...
Quite sobering to think that loads of people are buying £10 or £15 at a time.
🤔
Plenty of people don't have £40 cash at any one time
At what point do you think the government will ever be able to instigate the post brexit import checks they keep deferring?
First drive into work for me, in ages (I've only been into the office twice since April 2020).
Apart from the HGVs and a few other 'fuddy duddys' I was the slowest vehicle on the road sitting at 60mph.
I even got overtaken by a pick-up truck towing a caravan.
Maybe if people slowed down a bit, they wouldn't have to queue to brim their tanks.....
66.6mpg, in case you were wondering 😉
I am supposed to be back in the office on Thursday, although if I can't fill up this evening it will be touch & go whether I'll be able to. Might have to drive halfway & cycle the rest, which is quite pleasant but takes up a chunk of time.
The others all have long range new cars (Tesla, Kia and Hyundai) and use them for every journey, even ones they used to walk before.
In London, there are a lot of people trading in / selling their ICE cars for EVs in advance of the ULEZ expanding out to the North & South Circulars in October for this very reason - to keep on driving.
Clearly the money isn't an issue if you can afford a new EV (even on a lease deal), it's just seen a s away to "beat" the ULEZ charge. Media as usual have been doing their standard thing about "the hard-working motorist seen as a cash cow" to stoke things up a bit.
Because we’ve all been drip fed adverts and magazines and newspapers and all that shizzle in which the almighty motor car has been promoted right left and centre as the single shiny object to show off your success with.
I think this is a deliberately cynical interpretation of how people operate.
People use cars all the time because they have cars, and then they get cars because they use them all the time. It's easier than walking, cycling or getting the bus. It's that simple.
And small companies struggling to recover from Covid? Fuel is one of our biggest expenses.A tank full might last two or 3 days. There isn’t at present a suitable electric alternative for our vehicles.
So sounds like you "need" the fuel, and would still buy it at double today's prices, and have to suck that up for a week. Is that really that much worse than the chaos of not knowing if you can get the fuel you need or driving around for 2 hrs and sitting in a queue for hours.
I guess what surprised me though is that the prices have gone up a few pence rather than profiteering on desperation / managing supply (I don't believe the garages are doing this because they are worried about a carer affording the fuel to visit old Elsie or your business' post covid viability) - I must be missing something.
“ So what should “the media” do?
Not report the fact that fuel supply was essentially in a delicate balance due in no small part to a diminished pool of skilled labour, traceable (at least in part) back to Brexit?”
I think that would have been the responsible thing to do.
There are c8,300 petrol stations and the supply constraint is reported to have impacted the low tens of those / 0.3%.
On any given day some petrol stations are closed for refurbishment, tank inspections, new pumps being installed etc etc - the number is probably the same.
If we take another sector, is it national news if 0.3% of schools, GP surgeries or corner shops are running at reduced capacity or at worst, shut for a day or two?
When you have a situation where the public has no confidence in the ability of government/private industry to maintain essential supply chains, then this kind of behaviour is inevitable. People have noted earlier fuel/bog roll shortages, they understand that, in the short term, things will be scarce, and are determined not to be caught on the wrong side of that scarcity.
Next time around it will be worse, because people have run out of fuel, or spent Sunday searching for it, and don't want to be in that position again.
Labelling it as entirely 'panic buying' is a misunderstanding. Sensible people now understand the pattern, and take steps to make sure they have what they need.
Likewise, blaming the media is, for the most part, another get-out clause for politicians who have been repeatedly warned of problems in a key industry over the past few years, and failed to act.
Pieface
Free MemberOne thing (for me) that this highlights was that a successful Brexit required a major overhaul of our national infrastructure and skills base, after decades of underinvestment.
Yup. But since the only way to win the referendum was to lie and pretend that brexit would be easy and straightforward, that was never going to happen. And then the general election was won with "oven ready brexit" and doubled down on that.
Even if this government had the foresight to see what was needed and the competence to deliver it, they would never lift a finger to do anything about it.
People use cars all the time because they have cars, and then they get cars because they use them all the time. It’s easier than walking, cycling or getting the bus. It’s that simple.
We've also designed infrastructure to benefit the motorist and penalise other users such as cyclists, even if 'all things being equal' your average punter would prefer a car.
I guess what surprised me though is that the prices have gone up a few pence rather than profiteering on desperation / managing supply (I don’t believe the garages are doing this because they are worried about a carer affording the fuel to visit old Elsie or your business’ post covid viability) – I must be missing something.
What you're missing (and I suspect, the only reason it hasn't been done) is that price gouging (ie, whacking the prices up at a time of short supply / high demand) is illegal.
Yep, cars are great which is why they are so popular. Public transport would have to be unbelievably good to even start to compete with personal transport.
Just like bog rolls. No-one shat any more as a consequence of having 3 months worth of bog rolls in the cupboard.
True. But if you have a spare room full of the finest kitten soft arse paper, then you might treat yourself to an extra wipe or two, just to be on the safe side.
If you win power by eroding the public's confidence in authority (elites, experts etc) then you cannot be surprised when they don't trust you in a crisis. See lockdown breakers, antivaxers and panic buyers.
There is a special place in hell for these fraudsters who have done this.
As kelvin noted above, this is the reality of Brexit Britain. The only real question is how much are people willing to put up with before they'll face this reality? Brexit was a terrible idea, is now, and always will be.
The trouble is that 'resilience' comes in many forms - some of which are counterproductive. You'd be daft to let your fuel gauge drop below half now, so there will be behavioural changes as people adopt the approach of topping up rather than running down and refilling.
Debate the smaller individual vs societal conundrums all you like, but there is one salient point:
It doesn't have to be this way.
Should instigate a minimum purchase of £50. See how many drivers really want to pay an effective price of £5-10 for a litre of fuel. Lower values for two wheels of course - who obviously can't be part of the problem.
Just like bog rolls. No-one shat any more as a consequence of having 3 months worth of bog rolls in the cupboard.
No, but there were loads of blokes " working from home" 😉
Just saying like....
Labelling it as entirely ‘panic buying’ is a misunderstanding. Sensible people now understand the pattern, and take steps to make sure they have what they need.
Indeed. What's barmy for a population is sensible for individuals. And the lesson is: if you're going to 'panic' make sure you beat everyone else to it.
There will be more supply issues again in future, but people should be calmer next time,
That's hopeful!
But if you have a spare room full of the finest kitten soft arse paper, then you might treat yourself to an extra wipe or two, just to be on the safe side.
Boris promised me unicorns, blue passports, sunlit uplands, and no risk of poke-through because I'm skimping on bog roll.
I think this is a deliberately cynical interpretation of how people operate.
Fairly straightforward interpretation of how corporations operate. Remember they do so with knowledge of all the psychologic tricks, the market research, the budget to get propaganda to you. Most people operate with only their "common sense" and probably half aware at best, i.e. are basically open goals when it comes to this stuff.
Once you've got everyone hooked on heroin driving, their jobs are serviced by driving, their towns designed for driving, their lives essentially are different because of driving.
I do get that they are useful. So is heroin (well, derivatives thereof, in a medical sense). That doesn't stop either being addictive.
There will be more supply issues again in future, and people will panic exactly as much as this time.
FTFY?
People panic buying, well that has been happening since people.
Last ice age, there was a run on mammoth, lucky for me my ancestors got in first and beat the rush, they got to live.
