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It's getting interesting - the PCS union is reported to be backing independence according to the Herald, and the STUC seems to be leaning that way too according to the Scotsman. I wonder how much longer Scottish Labour will stay on the No side.
@ben an independent Scotland hurts UK labour so Scottish labour has to stay "no" publically. Not surprising the unions are in favour on the basis they believe an independent Scotland will be run by a left wing government.
rene59 - Member
Konnabunny the quote states that these other people will be able to apply for citizenship, it doesn't say anywhere that they will be guaranteed. I am sure there will be other additional qualification criteria.
POSTED 2 HOURS AGO # REPORT-POST
It would be absurd to say "these types of people could apply for citizenship" if the characteristics identified weren't going to be the criteria by which citizenship was awarded. They might as well have said "people who own Siamese cats could apply for citizenship".
I think this is a case where we just have to assume they mean what they say.
Talk about how much scotland puts in/comparisons with Germany etc are a moot point anyway. The oil is going to run out and then we will have to rely on the rest of Europe buying our golfs,Audi's and BMW's...aw scheect!
Otley vets? That was a low blow dwarf,it really was.
It's getting interesting - the PCS union is reported to be backing independence according to the Herald, and the STUC seems to be leaning that way too according to the Scotsman.
Yep, I saw this and thought "good"
Gotta ask yourself, who has your best interest closest. Trade Unions, or Tescos.
Ummmmm.......
Can anyone explain why Scotland cannot create her own central bank & therefore not need currency union?
Can anyone explain why Scotland cannot create her own central bank & therefore not need currency union?
No particular reason, it's just with the huge level of cross-border trade sharing a currency makes sense. That's why other currency unions exist, usually.
comparisons with Germany etc are a moot point anyway. The oil is going to run out and then we will have to rely on the rest of Europe buying our golfs,Audi's and BMW's...aw scheect!
Yeah, I think it was East Germany they were thinking of 😀
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Not surprising the unions are in favour on the basis they believe an independent Scotland will be run by a left wing government.
If that's the case they should be careful what the wish for, most of the evidence so far with both Trump and Grangemouth points to the exact opposite, the Scottish government favours big business. There are also rumours going around that the Oil company execs are already looking forward to an iScotland so they can turn the screw for less tax and more profits. I'd expect that other big Scottish industry companies like Diageo are looking to do the same.
muddydwarf - Member
Can anyone explain why Scotland cannot create her own central bank & therefore not need currency union?
If Armenia and the Comoros can then so can Scotland. But it's a crap idea.
No reason at all muddy. It's one of the options available and has been analysed by the Fiscal Committe and others at length. For some reason (!!) they conclude that the independece that this would give Scoltand is less beneficial than the interdepence required by a currency union - shock horror, yS advisers give full case to vote NO.
But it's a crap idea.
We were talking over the options at Christmas and my brother-in-law thought it was the best idea on the table. His job does involve currency speculation and he fancies a beach house in Miami though!
In another massive blow for the Yes campaign, according to the Scottish Daily Express, our queen could look like this:
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Lots more gems from Project Fear here:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/reasons-to-be-fearful/
In simple terms then, why is a Scots currency & central bank a bad idea for Scotland?
MD, all currency options are essentially measured against four criteria
1. Transactions costs
2. Monetary policy
3. Fiscal policy
4. Financial stability
No option gives you ticks across all four by definition and design. [b]There will always be some compromise between the objectives.[/b]
A Scottish pound could be a fixed, semi-fixed or floating exchange rate. The main benefit comes in terms of the highest degree of freedom in terms of monetary and fiscal policy (the points stressed in the BoD wish list). The main downside comes in higher transaction costs and the least assistance in terms of financial stability. An additional benefit would be a S£ would make later adoption of the € easier.
In contrast a currency union gives you lower transaction (and arguably transition costs) and the greatest level of financial stability offset by the lack of flexibility in terms of monetary and fiscal policy.
Hence, when backed against the wall, wee eck tries to pretend that transactions costs are a tax (George Tax) which is complete and obvious BS. He is correct thought, that they are a downside. But that is always true when trading with countries with different FX rates.
In the opinion of the Fiscal Commision, the best interests of Scotland are served by a CU ie give up independence of monetary and fiscal policy in return for lower transaction costs and greater financial stability.
So far so good. But the HM Treasury raise two issues:
1: Scotland's perspective: an independent state would find it more difficult to adjust to macro shocks (and they argue that Scotland is more exposed) if part of a CU
2: rUK perspective: rUK would be more and [b]unilaterally [/b]exposed to much higher levels of fiscal and financial risk from and independent Scotland. [b]The assymetry in this position makes the idea a non-starter [/b]in their opinion. Hence they would not recommend support for a CU.
Cue [s]plan a (€)[/s], [s]plan b (£) [/s]...plan C (tbc)
The central bank issue is actually quite a bit more complicated. IMO, the best and simplest analysis is found on pp6-9 in the NIESR report below
The business case (CBI and IoD) is to recognise both the challenges outlined by HMT for rUK and the downside of higher transactions costs outlined (albeit incorrectly labelled) by wee eck but to conclude
The leaders of the Confederation of British Industry and the Institute of Directors both warned that a currency union would be "unstable"......In a direct challenge to the Scottish first minister, Salmond was told that his warnings of increased transaction charges for businesses on both sides of the border were outweighed by the disadvantages of creating a currency union outside a full political union.
Well done THM
Amid a lot of unsubstantiated crap on this thread, along with the usual trolling, that post is both clear and largely unbiased
Thanks for that THM. Someone mentioned currency speculation, would a Scots currency be at particular risk from such?
On balance yes, but not straightforward. The reason why a CU makes sense at all is that Scotland and the rUK share similarities in terms of level of economic intergration, the convergence of business cycles and productivity levels and the high degree of labour mobility. For these reasons one would expect the two currencies to follow similar trends. However, there are a number of reasons why the S£ is likely to be more volatile including most clearly
It's a new currency
Need time to demonstrated monetary and fiscal competency
More exposed to rel volatile energy and finance sectors
Lose backing of being part of bigger risk pool (UK)
Thanks again THM - i admit to being completely thick where monetary policy stuff is concerned.
On balance then,i really cant see why Mr Salmond & Co haven't stated they will set up a Scottish Central bank using the new Scottish pound, its not as if they don't have the facilities to print them now is it?
Politically, it does seem as though the SNP have been blindsided by the whole CU affair & that doesn't tally with the popular conception that he is the most able political operator in the UK at the moment, something doesn't fit for me. Surely he would have been (politically) better off saying that Scotland would take her share of the BoE assets & would set up a new Scottish currency & bank - or am i missing something obvious here?
It's getting interesting - the PCS union is reported to be backing independence according to the Herald, and the STUC seems to be leaning that way too according to the Scotsman.
If you read the article .. 'some' bits of the PCS union have voted to support the Yes campaign (but then some have probably voted to support No and some have definitely voted to support PCS Neutrality), but the main vote by delegates representing their local areas has not been taken.
As such the herald report is just speculation, but I'm not surprised to see that some people on STW have decided that that means its a fact.
Gotta ask yourself, who has your best interest closest. Trade Unions, or Tescos.
Personally as a member I'll be leaving if they decide to campaign for either Yes or No.
However, whatever the decision it will not be based on special knowledge about how independence will affect members, but just on the views of the members themselves (who know exactly as much as anyone else about the true costs and risks of independence.)
2: rUK perspective: rUK would be more and unilaterally exposed to much higher levels of fiscal and financial risk from and independent Scotland
What are these risks?
It's not obvious to me, how a much smaller country can destabilise a much larger one just by sharing the same currency.
The crux is not the risks themselves (even though they are real) it is the lack of balance between the positions of rUK and Scotland under the yS proposal. It's a great result for Scotland but a poor one for rUK. Hence the recommendation from HMT, that they would not support the idea. All three major political parties in the UK have accepted this conclusion. IMO, they are correct to do so.
It's not obvious to me, how a much smaller country can destabilise a much larger one just by sharing the same currency.
Greece and the Eurozone crisis: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13798000
Greece and the Eurozone crisis
Good analogy, but a lot of the rot set in when Greece was allowed to join with the Drachma over valued and the debts hidden. In the case of Scotland we know the books backwards as they're ours already....
as THM later saidOn balance then,i really cant see why Mr Salmond & Co haven't stated they will set up a Scottish Central bank using the new Scottish pound
It's [ currencncy union] a great result for Scotland but a poor one for rUK.
ie its better for scotland to have a union than not as all those negatives, of a new currency, disappear - the issue is that [ arguably] they transfer to rUK [ some clearly do]
Surely he would have been (politically) better off saying that Scotland would take her share of the BoE assets & would set up a new Scottish currency & bank - or am i missing something obvious here?
he wants to get them to vote yes and insist little will change [ I assume to attract floating voters] so politically its a good strategy even if it is [ still not convinced it will definitely NOT Happen but it is unlikely] complete and utter BS.
The deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives has agreed it would be "rational and sensible" for an independent Scotland to keep the pound.
Jackson Carlaw also said he would argue for Scotland to be automatically admitted to the EU in the event of a "Yes" vote in the referendum.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26296632
Scottish Conservatives - so that's 3 rangers fans in the back room of the pub?
[quote=Junkyard ]he wants to get them to vote yes and insist little will change [ I assume to attract floating voters] so politically its a good strategy even if it is [ still not convinced it will definitely NOT Happen but it is unlikely] complete and utter BS.
Can we stop the thread now?
If the Yes vote wins maybe we can all give ourselves a pat on the back that a group of people can secede without a single shot being fired.
Events around the world seem to suggest this is a rarity.
I had a look at that House of Stuart Express report. I saw it as I am sure most reasonably minded people would. A slightly quirky and interesting article with an unbelievable and sensationalist headline to try to attract readers. If the yes camp reckon no voters are fearing the return of a Joan Rivers lookalike to the Scottish crown, they are much mistaken.
I see that very article is highlighted on the propaganda site that is Wings Over Scotland. An information service where nationalists can receive regular hits of "reality". Takes clearly reliable sensationalist headlines mainly from the gutter press, and twists them with an unpleasant tone, so the yes camp can take it's rantings as stating the view of the no camp verbatim.
That BBC Scotland link also has the Scottish Tory making the point that, in the event of a yes vote the momentum swings to the UK.
The UK doesn't have a voice in the independence referendum, but then an iScotland wont have a voice in the ensuing general election - and that's where the mandate for CU needs to come from.
Muddy dwarf If Scotland votes yes Scottish mps would still be returned to Westminster for the period from the UK general election until the formal date of independence..You're right though Scottish mps should not have a say on rUK issues such as a potential currency union in that situation. IMO the correct thing to do would be to take no part in the debate and show CMD what not involved really means.
Given that the main party leaders, business leaders, HM Treasury all say they don't support the idea, the BoE says CU won't work without Political Union & the electorate appear to be increasingly against the idea then how likely is it that iScotland will be able to swing a deal that is so obviously against the interests of the UK?
I can't see that happening somehow.
You're right again, I personally would be happy without any currency union or pegging but I do believe Mr Salmond is right to stick to his current position till proper negotiations begin . I also believe that Mr Osborne will negotiate without going as far as currency union.
I think the only sensible option is for Scotland to create a central bank and separate currency & go on from there. Best for Scotland & best for the UK.
Someone mentioned currency speculation, would a Scots currency be at particular risk from such?
Only if iScotland pegged its exchange rate - Sorostastic!
THM's post ignores the easiest options: unilaterally adopt the pound or the euro without being in currency union.
On balance then,i really cant see why Mr Salmond & Co haven't stated they will set up a Scottish Central bank using the new Scottish pound, its not as if they don't have the facilities to print them now is it?
Because central banking is expensive, because the world doesn't need another poxy little currency, because buggering around transitioning software/stationery/systems is an unnecessary cost, because the public are morons who are still confused by buying bananas in kilos and petrol in litres.
THM's post ignores the easiest options: unilaterally adopt the pound or the euro without being in currency union.
If you mean the so-called panama solution, well all sides have ruled that out as a non-starter and so would I. Totally inappropriate for Scotland (unless you are from the Adam Smith Inst, and that's for very different reasons)
I think the only sensible option is for Scotland to create a central bank and separate currency & go on from there. Best for Scotland & best for the UK.
Could just adopt the Euro. Would also quash all that [s]fud[/s]talk about Scotland not being allowed into the EU.
Scotland would have to be prepared to help bail out failing countries, but the worst seems to be over now and they could perhaps negotiate some kind of cap.
Once they'd switched to the Euro, the next logical step would seem to be to switch to driving on the right....
EDIT: of course Scotland would have to give up a lot of fiscal independence to the EU, but it's [b]never[/b] been about money, it's always been about being free of the English yoke. Even an EU yoke is preferable.
[quote=gordimhor ]You're right though Scottish mps should not have a say on rUK issues such as a potential currency union in that situation.
That goes a step beyond the West Lothian question!
[quote=oldnpastit ]Could just adopt the Euro. Would also quash all that fudtalk about Scotland not being allowed into the EU.
Scotland would have to be prepared to help bail out failing countries, but the worst seems to be over now and they could perhaps negotiate some kind of cap.
😆
Turns out the scottish government did ask westminster to make a joint approach to the European Commission, the Scottish seccretary refused
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21162488 ]Joint approach refused[/url]
Wonder how the PCS vote is going
Yes: 5775 votes
Neutral: 18025 votes
No: 0 votes
Good grief, just had a nosey at one of these online polls.
You can vote again as many times as you like by hitting the refresh button.
gordimhor - Member
Turns out the scottish government did ask westminster to make a joint approach to the European Commission, the Scottish seccretary refused
Joint approach refused[
It would be interesting to ask 100 people to read that old news item and summarise in one sentance. I reckon there would be (quite a lot of) different conclusions!
well all sides have ruled that out as a non-starter and so would I. Totally inappropriate for Scotland (unless you are from the Adam Smith Inst, and that's for very different reasons)
When you say "all sides"...
It's not a politically glamorous solution for Salmond or the rUK politicians.