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@futon No. It's not sufficiently in the UKs interest to agree to one, there is too much potential downside. IMO UK knows that if it doesn't agree to a currency union Scotland with either use GBP anyway, a Scottish pound pegged to the GBP or the euro. All of these are fine from a trade perspective and cost to the UK is very low/zero. Scotland is the one who really needs a CU as they haven't budgeted/planned for a central bank, they have a large number of businesses (like financial services) which are GBP based and not having the GBP means the euro is certain.
Scotland will take it's share of the debt, the no debt position is political posturing and playing the crowd.
100bn bribe isn't big enough then? What other levers have they got?
I want to hear what the YESSERS think, and 'I don't care, we'll be ok' doesn't cut it! Will Salmond be able to secure CU with his mandate?
you do like to imply that the referendum is the be and end of of independence though. Obfuscating the fact that we will indeed be voting for governments there after. Never mind you carry on propagating the salmond the dictator line. People believe that. 😆konabunny - Memberapparently you don't, champ. a referendum isn't representative democracy, it's direct democracy.
Oh and the Darien scheme an empire? That must make my garden at least a county.
Don't forget you lost Nova Scotia as well 😀
The rats are preparing to desert the sinking ship. 😆 i thought it was one of the funniest parts in the debate the other night when salmond offered darling the same. He looking like a wee puppy begging for a stick! Not a good look for the no camp! 😆
@seosamh - surely any politician will look to remain employed after either a no or a yes vote ?
@futon the £100bn isn't a "bribe", its nonsensical for Scotland to say they won't take the debt so that has no leverage as it has no credibility. I know your question isn't addressed to me (as a non voter) but it doesn't matter what mandate AS claims to have or will get to try and negotiate a CU, the fact he claims to have such a mandate from a population who have decided to leave the UK will make no difference to Westminster. Scotland has no leverage in this CU/debt discussion. See my post above, those are the likely outcomes.
pretty poor politicking to let it be known before the vote though.jambalaya - Member
@seosamh - surely any politician will look to remain employed after either a no or a yes vote ?
pretty poor politicking to let it be known before the vote though.
Possibly yes, but from my personal perspective it's not news. AS and the rest of the SNP aren't going to retire if its a no vote are they, we know that we don't need him to announce it ? Its easy that some of the no campaigners would be very valuable in the negotiations, not least as they are better connected to Westminster.
No I know it is desirable to have as many crossparty people involved form all sides post vote.jambalaya - Member
pretty poor politicking to let it be known before the vote though.Possibly yes, but from my personal perspective it's not news. AS and the rest of the SNP aren't going to retire if its a no vote are they, we know that we don't need him to announce it ? Its easy that some of the no campaigners would be very valuable in the negotiations, not least as they are better connected to Westminster.
Just saying it doesn't look good as a campaigning tactic, lacks confidence.
ninfan - MemberDon't forget you lost Nova Scotia as well
Well,if a random Scottish Lord living somewhere for three years makes something a colony,then that puts the frequent bleating about the Shetlands to bed.
@jambalaya - I'm aware of the UK perspective, and some of the economic context. I'm rather more interested in the iScottish perspective. They must surely have some kind of expectation of what Salmond can achieve? It al seems to be rather 'fingers crossed' at the moment! Come on, do you expect your man to come back from Westminster with CU in his pocket, or not?
Come on, do you expect your man to come back from Westminster with CU in his pocket, or not?
I don't see any point in trying to predict the result of 18-month negotiations which we haven't started.
Oh, and he's not "my man".
Come on, do you expect your man to come back from Westminster with CU in his pocket, or not?
There's already been at least 2 reply's (3 if you include Ben). It seems as though most of us think it could go either way and reckon things will work out themselves out either way.
Oh, and he's not "my man".
maybe, but he thinks [b]your[/b] Yes vote gives [b]him[/b] his mandate for the BoD and CU
maybe, but he thinks your Yes vote gives him his mandate for the BoD and CU
My Yes vote gives him and the whole negotiating team a mandate to negotiate what's best for Scotland.
My Yes vote gives him and the whole negotiating team a mandate to negotiate what's best for Scotland.
Ah, thats funny, I thought that The Scottish Governments commitment in light of a Yes vote was to work constructively[i] in the best interests of the people of Scotland and of the rest of the United Kingdom. [/i]?
No?
And, as I've asked before, what if the deal available isn't any good? Will he carry on regardless?a mandate to negotiate what's best for Scotland
What if:
EU says membership is contingent on an economic plan to bring Scotland in line with European economic cycles and the Euro and following that plan damages the other White Paper commitments?
NATO says that nukes have to stay here to gain membership?
Ah, thats funny, I thought that The Scottish Governments commitment in light of a Yes vote was to work constructively in the best interests of the people of Scotland and of the rest of the United Kingdom. ?
The two are not mutually exclusive - it's in the best interests of the rUK for the split to be quick and amicable, leaving us as friends.
But thats not what you said.
A good example being Currency Union, its clearly in the best interest of Scotland, however its far more questionable whether its in the best interest of the rUK... If it is shown not to be then your 'mandate' falls flat at the first hurdle!
My Yes vote gives him and the whole negotiating team a mandate to negotiate what's best for Scotland.
if I'd known you were the only voter I might have tried harder to convince you one way or the other.
"Should Scotland be an independent country" infers that the mandate is to make Scotland independent.ninfan - Member
But thats not what you said.A good example being Currency Union, its clearly in the best interest of Scotland, however its far more questionable whether its in the best interest of the rUK... If it is shown not to be then your 'mandate' falls flat at the first hurdle!
In relation to the currency this means that AS will go for a CU as that's what he has campaigned on as the best option(I don't agree) but if the CU can't be obtained then the mandate they have is to put in place the next best option. (The pound before you ask)
The negotiating period only goes so far though before we have an election and the mandate falls to someone else to build a new Scotland.
Just posted my vote in!
if I'd known you were the only voter I might have tried harder to convince you one way or the other.
😀
My name appears alongside a bunch of millionaires and billionaires in a letter supporting independence today. Well, I say alongside - it's in the same list. Though they spelled my company name wrong...
oldbloke - Member
What if:
EU says membership is contingent on an economic plan to bring Scotland in line with European economic cycles and the Euro and following that plan damages the other White Paper commitments?
NATO says that nukes have to stay here to gain membership?
We can survive without either.
It would be convenient to have membership of both, but it's not an essential, just an extension of the period of adjustment to being independent.
This is pretty deep:
At the shallower end:
it's in the best interests of the rUK for the split to be quick and amicable, leaving us as friends.
I don't see anything in AS which suggests the split would be quick or amicable. I don't see why a quick separation is in the UK's interests necessarily, keep iS tax revenues coming in and delay any capital spending projects 😛 In any case the March 2016 date is hugely optimistic IMO
@vintagewino, congratulations !
This is pretty deep
Is it a bad sign that I think Craig Murray is a pretty good guy?
In any case the March 2016 date is hugely optimistic IMO
Czechoslovakia split in 12 months. There isn't a country in the world with more experience of this sort of thing than the UK, with all the countries becoming independent from the Empire.
Tempers fraying for some
@piemonster, look at the abuse J K Rowling got on social media. You wonder how people can get so wound up by a children's author? I think the referendum has the potential to be very divisive, whichever side wins. It its a Yes and things are worse the no voters are going to be very vocal and AS is going to do a Robert Mugabe and just keep blaming everything on the colonial English thus doing nothing for cross border relations. If it's a No the Yes camp are going to complain long into the future about an opportunity lost. This is going to be particularly virile if the vote is close?
There isn't a country in the world with more experience of this sort of thing than the UK,
Agreed, In fact when you think about it, we can make it take as long as we like to ensure we get an acceptable negotiated outcome... rUK is under no pressure or commitment to suit Scotland's timescale!
The 2015 general election pretty much scuppers any hope of a 18 month timeframe
You know something. I think we might just get a majority of people voting Yes. This week has seen a surge towards Yes following the debate on Monday night.
Dream on lads. A successful referendum followed by delay by rUK will simply lead to a UDI.
But it's most unlikely to come to that. Westminster is more pragmatic than that.
[url= http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/no-vote-celebration-event-cancelled.1409218635 ]BTW it looks like they've thrown in the towel already.[/url]
I think the tories would be happy with a Yes vote to be honest - they had 1 MP north of the border last time I looked...
Personally I despise Salmond and Cameron equally and I'll be gutted if Scotland votes for independence but IME think that is true for those of us that live near the border. Without CU it'll be a hell of a mess for friends who live in Scotland but work in England and vice-versa.
I fail the Scottishness test of most of the posters on here though - despite being a proud Douglas - I was born in England...
AD - Member
...Without CU it'll be a hell of a mess for friends who live in Scotland but work in England and vice-versa.
I think the most likely scenario is us using the £ outwith a CU, so it will be the same £ you are using.
you are what you think you are. I wouldn't let anyone tell you different.AD - Member
I fail the Scottishness test of most of the posters on here though - despite being a proud Douglas - I was born in England...
Personally I don't identify with scottishness or any particular nationality. I know what my roots are but they don't define me.
Without CU it'll be a hell of a mess for friends who live in Scotland but work in England and vice-versa.
Doesn't seem to be a big problem for people in NI who work in Ireland and vice versa.
I fail the Scottishness test of most of the posters on here though - despite being a proud Douglas - I was born in England...
Doesn't matter where you were born, just where you live.
Doesn't matter where you were born
It does to some yes supporters here. Another thread was started the other day to that effect.
do you normally define yourself by the lowest common denominator?athgray - Member
Doesn't matter where you were born
It does to some yes supporters here. Another thread was started the other day to that effect.
Three people I know of have switched to Yes this week, first two were undecided. One of them I am not surprised they decided Yes as it always looked likely. The other one though was swaying to No. It wasn't until after watching the debate and Darling admitting we can use the pound that she changed her mind.
The third person was from the start a No voter, right up until he was filling in his postal vote. Said gut instinct kicked in and he felt sick, he sat for an hour with a drink thinking it through and couldn't in the end allow himself to vote No. So Yes it was.
I think it is going to be so close.
LOL - my 'Scottishness' comments were tongue in cheek - I should have added a smiley.
To be honest I think of myself as British which is probably why the whole independence vote just makes me sad. I work for a global manufacturing company founded by a Scot but now based in England. My comments echo genuine concerns of my workmates/friends who live just north of the border - from their perspective and mine nothing is clear. Not one of them is voting for independence by the way.
I will admit that I don't know anyone who lives in NI and works in Ireland so will bow to Ben's clearly greater experience of it not being a problem in any way.
I have a suspicion that Cumbria (and large parts of the North of England) probably has a lot more in common with Scotland than the South of England anyway:)
I will admit that I don't know anyone who lives in NI and works in Ireland so will bow to Ben's clearly greater experience of it not being a problem in any way.
I live a few miles from the Dutch Belgian border and work with lots of Belgians – for them it’s a bit of a hastle. From simple things like mobile phone roaming to more important things like healthcare and variations in tax structure. Different taxation can mean that grocery shopping is cheaper in Holland (still a minimum of 6% on all foods), but petrol’s cheaper in Belgium. So as the Scottish and UK administrations move apart there will be winners and losers both sides of the border.
Both charge 21% on childrens clothes though so not such a bright future for childrens clothes shops in Gretna.
I have a suspicion that Cumbria (and large parts of the North of England) probably has a lot more in common with Scotland than the South of England
Well as most of my English colleagues keep insisting that Hadrian's Wall will need to be rebuilt, a fair chunk may be forced to join us! 🙂
I have a suspicion that Cumbria (and large parts of the North of England) probably has a lot more in common with Scotland than the South of England anyway:)
I would have thought that also AD, however we are finding out that many fellow Scots don't give two hoots about Cumbria.
Is there a sliding scale by distance of how much I should care about people? Care a lot about people in Cumbria, a bit less in Manchester, don't give a **** about people in Dover? What does proximity to Scotland have to do with how much I care about people?
I care about people everywhere, but I don't see why staying part of the UK has anything to do with that. We can't save Cumbria from the Tories, except perhaps by example.