Random mortality po...
 

[Closed] Random mortality pondering

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If one million people were born on the same day in UK how many would live to be 1 year old, then to 2 years old and so on and how old would the last survivor live to?


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 6:41 pm
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Depends what day they were born. If it's a Thursday, all of them to 102.


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 6:49 pm
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With a touch of extrapolation, you should find the answer in [url= http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/index.html ]here[/url]
Just look for mortality rates


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 6:56 pm
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Rough, and not quite what you asked, but then I'm lazy ...
(taken from the ONS pages as linked by chubby up there, funnily enough)
During one week this year, if you died, these are the percentage chances of you being dead by thye time you'd reached a particular age band:

[url= http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2198/13110628045_cb4a18159d.jp g" target="_blank">http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2198/13110628045_cb4a18159d.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
[url= http://www.flickr.com/photos/23823661@N05/13110628045/ ]deaths[/url] by [url= http://www.flickr.com/people/23823661@N05/ ]scaredypants[/url], on Flickr


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 7:20 pm
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Soz, this is probably better. Chance of dying or being already dead on reaching each year of age (last 3 are 90-95, 96-100 and 100+)
UK, predicted for 2014

[url= http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7370/13111372144_f33d4679ca.jp g" target="_blank">http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7370/13111372144_f33d4679ca.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
[url= http://www.flickr.com/photos/23823661@N05/13111372144/ ]deaths2[/url] by [url= http://www.flickr.com/people/23823661@N05/ ]scaredypants[/url], on Flickr


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 7:41 pm
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sorry.. i dont believe that half of them will be alive at 86.. look around how many 86 year olds do you see..


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 8:12 pm
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from elsewhere on ONS:

Table 1: Average Life Spans in Years, 2010
England and Wales
Age in Years Males Females
Life expectancy at birth 79 83
Median age at death 82 85
Modal age at death 85 89


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 8:54 pm
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Funny you mention this. It hit me like a sledgehammer this morning that if I match my Dads life expectancy I have 15 years remaining. I'm 36 this year FFS. Better keep getting those miles in and clean up my diet!


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 9:17 pm
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[quote=totalshell ]sorry.. i dont believe that half of them will be alive at 86.. look around how many 86 year olds do you see..
How many 86 year olds will you see in 86 years time? 😆 These figures are only going one way unless we adopt a different belief system
[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 12/03/2014 9:19 pm