It's 9 minutes. Going out for a long walk after that to try and wipe its memory from your head is probably a good thing.
I'm struggling to think of a suitable analogy for my impression of the conference, but it's difficult. I kept thinking about porridge and how a bowl of that it is more passionate, believable and animated than she is, but that's unfair. Porridge is, after all, a useful item benefiting millions daily. Unlike Liz Truss.
I’m struggling to think of a suitable analogy for my impression of the conference, but it’s difficult.
Like watching paint dry, only to realise its not fresh paint and your bath is overflowing.
No, it’s not a “job”. Yet it still pays better than my job does. Or my other half’s job. Or my brother’s job. Or my next door neighbour’s job. Or the job of the neighbour on the other side of them. Or…
Are you all these idle Brits I keep hearing about - work harder 🙂
“Once they enter the workplace, the British are among the worst idlers in the world. We work among the lowest hours, we retire early and our productivity is poor. Whereas Indian children aspire to be doctors or businessmen, the British are more interested in football and pop music.”
Some of those insults are pretty good. Wierd, but good.
Given all the rumours circulating about Truss's shenanigans (going in dry 😳) that emerged over the summer
Do we think she's just said f-it and is going full 'last days of Rome' now
She may as well
Hunt is effectively PM she may as well just enjoy herself
Do we think she’s just said f-it and is going full ‘last days of Rome’ now
She may as well
Hunt is effectively PM she may as well just enjoy herself
That's what Boris did.
Got himself a flight in a Typhoon, had at least one holiday, did absolutely no PM work that anyone knows about.
Do we think she’s just said f-it and is going full ‘last days of Rome’ now
She may as well
Her willingness to go with the mini budget*, fire kwasi, appoint hunt, let him undo the mini budget has proved a few things:
She's clueless.
She's willing to put her name on anything.
Has no conviction in her beliefs.
Feels no real solidarity with her colleagues.
Has little feeling of remorse.
She can do as she's tols and it's actually quite good at it.
Most of those things are quite desirable to the party leader, in a senior politician, regardless of party,they're just in no way desirable in the party leader.
*I think few have much doubt she was told to do by amongst others, several rather right of centre organisations.
That’s what Boris did.
Got himself a flight in a Typhoon, had at least one holiday, did absolutely no [PM] work that anyone knows about.
Business as usual for his entire career then, except maybe the plane.
Mordaunt rumoured to step in for Truss to answer Starmers urgent question... Truss must be stuck in that fridge and she's not coming out until things have settled down outside...
To get to their normal place of work.
Well, then the options are either:
1) Only have lords (and MP's?) representing London
2) Pay travel expenses.
On balance I'd rather both houses of parliament included members from both John O'Groats and Greenwich, even if one has to claim for £700 in train tickets and 4 nights in a hotel each week and the other just has a TfL receipt.
I reckon she's gone.
Announcement later today.
Perhaps she's not in the fridge but has gone to visit the king... 'Oh dear, Oh dear not you again'...
It is, apparently, quite normal for a stand in to respond to an opposition urgent question.
On the other hand, the Guardian is reporting that sources in No10 aren't sure Truss will last the week.
"I reckon she’s gone.
Announcement later today"
Or tomorrow, she won't make it to pmq's.
Well, then the options are either:
1) Only have lords (and MP’s?) representing London
2) Pay travel expenses.
3) like just about every other job, expect people to pay it out of their net salary. (finding a third of your salary [based on the number given above] just to get to and from work sounds awfully onerous doesn't it, also sounds awfully like real life for a lot of people)
4) work from home
5) make sure they actually do some work in and for their constituency.
6) put the office somewhere easier for the majority to get to, maybe Sheffield, or Rochdale or something. (they don't seem keen on the suggestion of York)
Let's face it is not like the current system ensures your actual MP for John o'groats has ever actually been and members of the Lords don't, in theory, represent anywhere particularly.
I think @gobuchal is right.
If not today, then by the end of the week. What remains to be seen is what happens next - going to be very politically difficult for them to put someone else in and [b]not[/b] call a GE.
Why would they call a GE? There's no requirement to, and they're guaranteed to get hammered if they do. They can just ride out any "political" fallout.
I reckon she’s gone.
Penny Mordant standing in for her at Commons questions.
Truss has a sick note from her mum and can't do PE?
Why would they call a GE? There’s no requirement to, and they’re guaranteed to get hammered if they do. They can just ride out any “political” fallout.
Because, if they don't call a GE then they risk all that "protecting democracy" stuff they've peddled used against them... perhaps destroying the party completely. If they go through a few more PMs, ignoring that people in the country now overwhelmingly do not want them to be in office... they could find themselves not just losing an election, but becoming a runt of a party... SNP forming the official opposition... and the LibDems replacing them across a swath of seats in the South East and South West could even force them into "fourth party" status at Westminster. I don't think they can assume this is a low point that they can try to climb out of over the next 2 years... if they try they could be fighting against a backdrop of "why on earth are you still here?!?" from the public and media. Accepting becoming the official opposition within the next year could be the least bad outcome for them now.
SNP forming the official opposition…
With potentially 59 seats? Don't hold your breath will you.
Accepting becoming the official opposition within the next year could be the least bad outcome for them now
After stealing a few Labour policies under Truss (if they can find some) it would be the prudent move.
Force Labour to either strengthen tory policies or go against their own. in either case they're going to fall flat because unless a lot changes over the next few years globally there's not much chance anyone will fix it
With potentially 59 seats? Don’t hold your breath will you.
As things stand polling wise, the SNP could win more seats than the Tories. If Truss or her replacement try and hang on for two years, turning more people against the party, that level of polling could be turned into voting reality. The arrogance of holding on to power when the voters overwhelmingly want you gone could destroy the party for a generation. All that talk of "the will of the people" might come back to bite them on the arse.
As things stand polling wise, the SNP could win more seats than the Tories
They always could, now more than before, I don't think it's in anyway likely mind and nor do I think all those tories suddenly voting Labour would happen either.
If the tory Party collapse it'll be to the benefit of Labour sure, but it'll also bump a lot of very unpleasant bit part players into the limelight to form your official opposition under whichever right wing flag they coalesce about.
Everytime you think about the abandoned tory ship, think where all those "senile racists in Eastbourne" are going to put their vote, Tommy Robinson or Keir Starmer.
They've got to accept their dreams have failed or that Truss has failed, my bet is on them dreaming bigger.
Crying tears of laughter
Translating the polls into actual seats is always a bit of a black art - I'd be very surprised if the Tories aren't the opposition after any GE.
Why would they call a GE?
For precisely the same reason as Liz Truss will probably announce her resignation sometime this week - because despite it not being requirement not doing so is not be an option.
The ground is fertile for some right wing populist farage etc... To stir up the pot a bit
Tories becoming Blukip seems to have had a short shelf life
FWIW I think who is anointed will be a big clue as to what will happen.
It's all conjecture of course but, I reckon if they go for a moderate in mordant or Wallace, they plan to see out their term.
If they're going to war footing for a GE we'll end up with braverman or the like. The hard right line will ensure they don't haemorrhage their core vote, it'll get rid of a lot of swing voters but, by nature of being swing voters they can be counted on to swing back eventually anyhow. Where as if the true blue tories go they'll not come back.
Truss has a sick note from her mum and can’t do PE?
https://twitter.com/dasvee/status/1581987203609071617
Because, if they don’t call a GE then they risk all that “protecting democracy” stuff they’ve peddled used against them
Like most things the tories wrap themselves in, aside from fridges, they dont really believe in it. They just like to shout it out whilst doing the exact opposite. Hence their attempts to redo the electoral boundaries to help boost their support.
@dangeourbrain Braverman would be electoral suicide. She might keep the core vote loyal but virtually every swing voter will look at her and go 'no'.
Hunt getting snapped with his brief showing
Including the warning that these details must not be leaked...
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1582002416425127936?t=Khwqc5mD9X--oDbiq3k-wg&s=19
Farage shot himself in the foot by declaring the Mini Budget the best one he has ever seen on Twitter. He'll keep his head low until a GE is actually called.
Translating the polls into actual seats is always a bit of a black art – I’d be very surprised if the Tories aren’t the opposition after any GE.
The appalling polls will have awoken their core voters who will be out in force when the next election happens, they have always had a high voting percentage as they're mostly retired so have time to go and vote. I think someone once did an analysis of this group and found that even if only 75% of them voted then the Tories would still end up with 100+ seats by default. With the gerrymandering of boundaries I'm sure that number will be higher.
Briefing from no.10: "The new chancellor and PM are in lockstep"
Sounds familiar:
If Truss or her replacement try and hang on for two years, turning more people against the party, that level of polling could be turned into voting reality. The arrogance of holding on to power when the voters overwhelmingly want you gone could destroy the party for a generation. All that talk of “the will of the people” might come back to bite them on the arse.
Whist I'd agree that Tories holding onto power will only cement Labours election result when it comes, I don't believe for a second that the recent polls would translate into a GE result. The best I think we'd see is the 30% lead eroded into a ~50seat majority over the campaign.
For precisely the same reason as Liz Truss will probably announce her resignation sometime this week – because despite it not being requirement not doing so is not be an option.
The difference is, if they can stop the infighting, then they can govern effectively. They just need a PM that the parliamentary party can actually get behind. Truss can't be that person seemingly, doesn't mean Hunt, Javid, others, cant.
That the rest of the country won't like it is neither here nor there, if they can pass votes in the HoC, then they can just ignore the papers and the polls.
The big difference between now and 2008 is the internet and social media. The last time the country turned on a PM (Blair/Brown) you had to be a multimillionaire with a newspaper empire to put a witty cartoon out there. That I can see being an influence on how big the swings in politics are going forwards.
@dangerbrain Braverman would be electoral suicide. She might keep the core vote loyal but virtually every swing voter will look at her and go ‘no’.
Most of them already have. There's no illusion the tories will win the upcoming GE, it's not about surviving that one, it's about surviving 2027 or 2029.
A trouncing under braverman would give her no time in office because she lost masses of support. Didn't work, sorry too hard right. Quick switch for another leader and build a moderate for the subsequent GE.
A trounced moderate at the next GE would be very very bad.
The new chancellor and PM are in lockstep”
Sounds familiar:
Last days of Weimar? Its a good job Westminster isn't a huge fire risk.
The last time the country turned on a PM (Blair/Brown) you had to be a multimillionaire with a newspaper empire to put a witty cartoon out there. That I can see being an influence on how big the swings in politics are going forwards.
Now you just need to be in the right wing billionaires network, financing cambridge analytica et al to flood social media with lies and misleading representations to nudge people to vote against their best interests.
The game is still the same, even if the delivery medium has changes.
Briefing from no.10: “The new chancellor and PM are in lockstep”
Hands up anyone* who has ever heard of the word "lockstep"?
* - anyone who is not American
Lizzies excuse for ducking out of Parliament this afternoon is as ‘she’s been detained on important business’
It was greeted with the expected derisive laughter
Mordant is filling in and Starmer just greeted her with ‘I suppose in the modern Tory party, everyone gets to be PM for 15 minutes’
The difference is, if they can stop the infighting, then they can govern effectively.
I think it's plain for all to see that there isn't "a" conservative party any longer. There's an English Nationalist party, there's still a rump of Johnson supporters and there's a group forming around Sunak. I think about the only thing they agree on is that they all know that the gig is up, and most - I think, are going to be persuaded by the "It's going to be shit for the next 5 years, let's bow out now, and let Labour take the flak" argument. Otherwise they're all going to be kicked out and unemployable when they loose their seats, and that worries more of them than sitting on the opposition benches for a bit.
Hands up anyone* who has ever heard of the word “lockstep”?
It's a perfectly normal, cromulent word.
Imagine if she's gone to see Charlie boy in order to press the (political) nuclear button...
And comes out to say 'I've just been to see the King to call a new General Election'.
She knows she's ****ed and her souless shameless uncaring party too. Take some of her plotters out in the explosion.
I feel that if Labour isn't preparing a soundbite involving comparing democratic and the mini budget's economic deficit for when Truss resigns and the Tory party decides they can elect a new leader without a general election, then they should be.
I’d be very surprised if the Tories aren’t the opposition after any GE
If they call an election in the next six months, I agree. If they try to drag out their time in power to 2025, under a succession of unwanted Prime Ministers, while nearly everyone wants them just to get out of the way... I wouldn't bet against a near wipeout. Where as the SNP will get 35+, no matter what.
