We are not all getting poorer. We are not all in this together. Money continues to move to the very richest and they have been doing very well
I’m fairly sure he’s probably read the same MMT book as you.
And a few hundred more books on economics as well
Doubt it. Monetarists don't represent MMT accurately. The believe the private sector funds the state.
Solid debating skills BTW.
Crack on with your own suggestions on how to fix the economy.
The support kicking around here for a totally failed system is breathtakingly stupid.
Meanwhile... Jenrick is telling us that it's all the fault of asylum seekers. Of course. That's the next election campaign... it's not the government, it's foreigners... again. And will it work... again? I wouldn't bet against it.
“Excessive uncontrolled migration threatens to cannibalise the compassion that marks out the British people”
It is a measure of the complete lack of confidence in the Labour Party’s ability to improve on the current situation.
This is presumably because no opposition party declares any good ideas close to election time as their opponents would just pinch it. Thus we have no publicly expressed motion of how Labour would make things better. In the meantime, the govt can keep on digging the hole ever deeper for another year.
Thus we have no publicly expressed motion of how Labour would make things better.
But surely based on the fact of how unpopular the Tories are on here, and the fact that all Tory politicians are thick, Labour will make things much better by not being Tories?
Edit: To be more precise whatever policies Labour adopts they won't be Tory policies, so shouldn't that be the reason for huge optimism? Why all the doom and gloom about the future?
It suggests a stunning lack of confidence.
Solid debating skills BTW.
Apologies, you took it down to an adhomien level and beat me with experience.
However very few, if any, believe that getting rid of the Tories will make much difference.
It'll make a massive difference. Even by Tory standards the current crop in power are particularly bad.
However very few, if any, believe that getting rid of the Tories will make much difference.
Labour will have a mountain to climb. But, we can moan about their lack of speedy mountain levelling skills rather than the Tories piling on more shit if you want.
Basically the BoE have got it all back to front and looking for someone to blame.
Truth is inflation is a blend of factors. And the BoE have only one tool and need to protect their decisions.
This was primarily a supply side inflation problem. The remit of monetarism is to encourage unemployment by increasing interest rates. To slow the economy and hope for the best. Trouble is you pass income to asset holders which can stoke inflation and effectively tax people who borrow. No secret who it benefits.
Does this seem a fair and rational approach to the failure of policy?
The burden of lowering inflation is being passed to the poorest. Shafted by austerity or low wages.
Time for it to stop.
This… But…
You can’t really blame the BoE when they have essentially had their policy dictated to them for many years now by an incredibly right wing, self serving government with no interest in its population. It’s all well and good people moaning about interest rates rising now being like sticking the knife in and turning it… Interest rate rises NEEDED to happen a long while ago, you can’t live on borrowing money on the cheap forever! But our govt wanted it to go on as long as possible, cementing their “I’m alright Jack, f*** you” voter agenda and thus their continued position of power.
It’s only when the bubble bursts (and my God this Tory government has been world class in drawing out the inevitable!!!) that the masses will turn… Fortunately for those of us with some sense of social conscience, the hard right in the Tory party decided to go full nut job and elected Liz Truss leader, which opened everyones eyes outside of the party as to just how bad this Tory govt is, and even though she was gone in a month the damage was done, and even the most die hard of wilfully blind Tory voters over the last 7 years is now hyper critical of their self serving agenda!
@ernielynch from where I'm sitting the trouble is the Tories have taken us so far down this road that even with a Labour government with a thumping great majority things won't improve overnight, it could take two terms of government to change direction for the better for the worse off, and that's a long time when you're struggling.
Inflation was low for a bit because we exported it to China (along with our pollution, carbon output and jobs). That dodgy book keeping tactic is no longer available.
Corporate and banking executives deluded themselves they were titans of industry off the back of the temporary increase in profits, using that to justify massively boosting their incomes (and inequality) but are now being shown to be hopelessly out of their depth.
While the STW demographic sat at home through lockdowns being paid handsomely by future generations, some people were out demonstrating that they could work harder for a bit (the same people that are getting hammered the most by the current economic reality). Their reward? To be expected to work at that same level of intensity. For ever. Work in teaching, health, retail, delivery etc? Plenty of jobs for people that want them, right?
What is there to be optimistic about?
As for the other stuff, yes, Brexit has cost us dearly, as most of us knew it would, yet nobody held to account for the destruction caused by all those lies, same with the interest rates going up and up at the same time as BoE/Government/etc telling us it’s not like other inflationary crisis’, so why stick rates up, why when we were in a financial mess in the late 2000s were we able to magic up hundreds of billions, yet can’t come up with a couple of billion to give our teachers, doctors, nurses, etc a payrise in line with the inflation partially caused by UK PLC?
Because rates have needed to go up for a very long time! The timing will never be good, but arguably it would have been better if rates had gone up say 8yrs ago (pre-Brexit) where maybe a 2% interest rate rise phased in might have dealt with things before they got bad enough for the position we are in now (it would probably have also impacted on the Brexit vote too, and kept us in the EU, which obviously the money men didn’t want).
As for why they can’t find the money…? The answer is sadly very simple… It’s because they don’t want to! They will find it for anything they deem important enough… Sadly our NHS at crisis point actually plays into their personal agendas, hence they’re actively underfunding it and allowing it to rot…
However very few, if any, believe that getting rid of the Tories will make much difference.
*sigh*
Sometimes I get the impression that our resident revolutionaries are willing any incoming Labour government to fail so that they can elevate the saddles of their equines yet further and tell us they told us so
This is the worst government this country has ever had, by a country mile, who have given up even the slightest pretence that they give a shit about anyone other than the top 1%
I look at the Labour front bench and while admittedly it doesn’t look particularly inspiring, they also don’t look like they’re eyeing up the chance to completely **** me over at every available opportunity to further line the pockets of their mates
a Labour government with a thumping great majority things won’t improve overnight, it could take two terms of government to change direction
What?? Two terms, 10 years, to "change direction"??
I would expect the very first King's Speech to represent a change of direction.
But well done for attempting to lower people's expectations to rock bottom and placing the bar on the ground.
It suggests a stunning lack of confidence.
Have you heard Keir Starmer…?
The guy is the next worst option behind our current government! He doesn’t fill me, nor I suspect many other voters, with confidence…
The problem is once he’s PM, he’ll believe he’s there because of his popularity and his policies, where the opposite is true… He was simply just not quite as bad as a rampant right wing Tory option!
Labour would do well to get rid of him ASAP… Angela Rayner would be far more popular, and dare I suggest it, a more unifying leader!
Sometimes I get the impression that our resident revolutionaries are willing any incoming Labour government to fail so that they can elevate the saddles of their equines yet further and tell us they told us so
And yet you seem to have absolutely no confidence that things will get better in the future. You appear to be by far the worse doom monger on here.
I cannot recall you ever expressing a word of optimism.
But surely based on the fact of how unpopular the Tories are on here, and the fact that all Tory politicians are thick, Labour will make things much better by not being Tories?
All depends how much not Tory they are I suppose. They are certainly falling for the "we can't afford it", "where's the money coming from" BS so that is why my hopes are not very high.
I would hope we wouldn't see the outright appalling shit the tories have got up to with say immigration but as we know that is not actually affecting anyone in UK anyway so even having a bit of kindness towards immigrants will not make peoples lives in UK better. SO Labour should have kinder/fairer policies and approach but what radical stuff do you think Starmer's Labour will do that makes you so positive it will all be great for people?
But well done for attempting to lower people’s expectations to rock bottom and placing the bar on the ground.
Every post you make on this site does the same Ernie. That's one thing you absolutely can't point the finger about.
but what radical stuff do you think Starmer’s Labour will do that makes you so positive it will all be great for people?
Well, with that mountain to climb, and the tories just walking down hill in a rather haphazard and ramshackle manner, I am sure SKS will be able to organise the walk in the wrong direction much better.
...wonders off to reread the ascent of rum doodle.
But well done for attempting to lower people’s expectations to rock bottom and placing the bar on the ground.
Every post you make on this site does the same Ernie
Well you obviously don't read what I post, which is fair enough I guess.
However if you did you would know that I am a darn sight more optimistic than someone like binners.
I post at least once a week the latest opinion poll showing a huge Labour lead over the Tories, something which I very much welcome. The only way forward, in a real and sustained way, is by the catastrophic collapse of support for the Tory Party.
A huge Labour majority would obviously be a massive step forward. First of all it mean that credibility in the Tories as a party of government had collapsed, and secondly it would put massive expectations on a Labour government - ensuring that it was far more likely to deliver.
Lowering people's expectations of a Labour government will achieve nothing. In fact it will guarantee that nothing will fundamentally change.
I have no confidence in Starmer as Prime Minister, I consider him to be a self-serving careerist with no political convictions, but that doesn't matter. With the Tories discredited the alternative will not be veering back to them.
Admittedly it might create a political vacuum which might benefit a party such as Reform UK but I am sufficiently optimistic to consider that to be unlikely. (See my views on Nigel Farage which you presumably didn't read)
I believe that Starmer's inevitable failure is more likely to push the Labour Party to the left than to the right. What would be the point of apeing a discredited Tory Party?
I am far more optimistic about the political future than most people on here appear to be. I believe that we are about to see a very significant shift in the logjam that is British politics.
The only way things are likely to change is when people stop believing that the Tories are the problem.
They are. The reason Labour is where it is politically and is doing what it's doing is in response to the Tories. Tories have set the tone that Labour have to respond to. As we've said before the Tories' main skill is getting people to vote agains their own interests and yes I think that's the main problem here.
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benpinnick
If the cost of stuff sold was 95% salary costs then the theory might stack up, but its not, it can’t be over 10-20% max (in terms of the UK labour force contribution to goods on the shelves). Inflation is measured in terms of real goods, and so if you add 10% to the salary base, real goods prices should only go up by around 1-2%. If you then add another 2% to the salary base to compensate, then its 0.2% and so on.
Wage inflation has very little to do with the price of stuff on which inflation figures are based, and so trying to use one as a lever to fix the other is pointless.
Sort of but not the entire picture especially if you take a wider view to "being poor" than inflation alone.
Ultimately the difference is in the 60-70's we had a positive balance of trade ... and we weren't obsessed with GDP
To (over) simplify if your balance if trade is positive then a higher GDP is positive... if the balance of trade is negative then a higher GDP is negative to COL.
In the 60's-70's (whatever) most people couldn't afford a faberge egg <insert luxury item of choice>.. so in that nothing has changed. Back in the 60's-70's (or post 1932) it was free to walk over Kinder Scout (or wherever) and that's still true.
In the 60-70's mobile phones** cost nothing... today many people seem to think having the latest mobile phone is a fundamental human right so much so that they support forcing people who don't want a mobile phone to buy/rent one.
**mobile phones are just an example of expensive items that have become to all intents and purposes "non optional", made outside the UK so negatively affecting the balance of trade and need to be frequently replaced
The UK hasn't been able to feed itself since long before this so food is always subject to currency and in actuality has been artificially cheap for a decade. It's an eye opener to watch an old "Open All Hours" and see how expensive food was compared to many other items.
The main issue seems to be that as food has gone up many are stuck also paying for non-optional luxury items so they need more money each month.
The only way things are likely to change is when people stop believing that the Tories are the problem.
They are.
Well if the Tories are the problem why all the doom and gloom about the future? The last time there was an opinion poll giving the Tories a lead over Labour was in 2021.
Things can only get better - the Tories are the problem and they will be gone in a few months time. Happy days!
As we’ve said
I'm sorry, how many people are you speaking for?
What would make things better if people stopped thinking we live in a real democracy, that Labour are going to make a blind bit of difference and realise we live in a technocracy, and the current state of our finances is deliberate, not accidental.
Wholesale reform of the economic system is the only thing that can help, but we're not up for it because it's not bad enough for us to get fighty.
from where I’m sitting the trouble is the Tories have taken us so far down this road that even with a Labour government with a thumping great majority things won’t improve overnight,
Except is was Blair that started this... (unless you believe in magic money trees)
ATTEMPT AT IMAGE
Just imagine helicopters had existed in 1912, and they’d flown a decent, competent captain onto the titanic at 01:00 on the 14th April to sort it all out….
That is pretty much where this country is now. Thinking that anyone can miraculously sort this shit out is naieve and stupid.
Ah yes, it's just like Titanic and the lack of helicopters in 1912.
This proves that firstly there is very little that the next Labour government will be able to do, and secondly that apparently I am "naive and stupid" to think otherwise.
👏
chevychase
What would make things better if people stopped thinking we live in a real democracy, that Labour are going to make a blind bit of difference and realise we live in a technocracy, and the current state of our finances is deliberate, not accidental.
Wholesale reform of the economic system is the only thing that can help, but we’re not up for it because it’s not bad enough for us to get fighty.
The current state of the economy is excellent though. Money is flowing (or now gushing) from the poor to the rich exactly as people seem to want.
and realise we live in a technocracy
It's equally a post truth democracy.
People can vote for whatever unicorn or magic money tree's they like so long as they don't question if either exists.
Money is flowing (or now gushing) from the poor to the rich exactly as people seem to want.
Do they? Who are you hanging around with?
Have things changed that much since March 7?
https://pollingreport.uk/articles/labour-maintains-economy-lead-going-into-budget-week
To make matters worse for the Conservatives, 70% of the public don't think their policies will improve the economy in the long term as 71% think they've done a bad job handling the cost of living. Labour policies are also favoured over Conservative ones on taxation (34% - 21%), poverty/inequality (41% - 12%), reducing the cost of living (36% - 17%), unemployment (34% - 19%), and pensions (26% - 17%).
Do they? Who are you hanging around with?
People that believe in magic money tree's and government debt not being real money or needing to be repaid.
I don't if they have changed, all that matters is the next election and a lot of people with return to form and vote Tory. Hopefully not enough of them though.
I'll happily accept being poorer, it's one or two less weekends away each year for me.
It's the poor bastards for whom being poorer means "adequately fed" or "hungry" that need societies protection.
People that believe in magic money tree’s and government debt not being real money or needing to be repaid.
That's not what you said. You said that people seem to want money to flow from the poor to the rich.
Whatever people's misunderstanding of debt, thanks in no small way to the bollocks spouted by David Cameron, George Osborne, Vince Cable, and Danny Alexander, I have seen no evidence that people want money to flow from the poor to the rich.
Which is presumably why the Tories and the LibDems came out with this absurd nonsense "we're all in this together". They needed to convince voters that the wealthy would also be suffering.
People that believe in magic money tree’s and government debt not being real money or needing to be repaid.
How far we've come.
Always shows total lack of understanding of government finances with this sort of comment.
Following my previous post I reckon it's time for this quote:
We are not here in this world to find elegant solutions, pregnant with initiative, or to serve the ways and l modes of profitable progress. No, we are here to provide for all those who are weaker and hungrier, more battered and crippled than ourselves. That is our only certain good and great purpose on earth, and if you ask me about those insoluble economic problems that may arise if the top is deprived of their initiative, I would answer 'To hell with them.' The top is greedy and mean and will always find a way to take care of themselves. They always do.
Michael Foot
Apologies, you took it down to an adhomien level and beat me with experience.
I've provided plenty of info - you can challenge it if you want.
I believe that we are about to see a very significant shift in the logjam that is British politics.
Much as I would like to agree I see no real evidence that this is going to happen. The labour party under Starmer clearly isn't going to bring the change we need. Much like Sunak is doing now Starmer will run a steady ship, and benefit from a significant honeymoon as the likes of Binners et al bask in the misplaced relief of the tories not being in power, releasing Starmer from any expectations of actually doing anything different.
For a couple of years he'll have the easiest job in the country. Then when people realise he hasn't done anything they won't be looking to support more radical left-leaning voices in the labour party, they'll be switching back to the tories or Nigel Farage. We're basically just following the US down the route of impotent and cowardly centrist govt in the form of Obama/Biden and increasingly deranged culture war radicals on the right preventing any form of progressive change.
I seriously think the only thing that will bring any fundamental change is an economic collapse such as happened in Argentina, Iceland or Greece. It's going to take something on the scale of people losing their life savings and pensions to wake them up to the reality of the kleptocracy we live in.
Is that the royal ‘We’?
Folk that were already going to food banks and making the choice between heating and eating, I suppose they’re doing very well too are they?
What’s the comparison here, some industrial city in Siberia?
I’ve read some dumb shit on here recently but this is a whole other level.
I did say "collectively" - I don't think poverty started last Tuesday.
I will take from your use of expletives just because you may not agree that you're not interested in respecting basic plurality of opinions principles and don't want to engage in rational and respectful debate.
That’s not what you said. You said that people seem to want money to flow from the poor to the rich.
and they obviously do if they believe in magic money tree's. Unless you believe in unicorns its the same thing.
Either money is paid back sooner out of our present economy by the poorest to the richest or it's paid back later by the poorest' s children to the richest's children.
Anyone else list to PMQ's?
Seems now that it's to be celebrated (according to Sunak and his baying party) that 10's of millions of UK citizens need Govt handouts to be able to afford to live.
Funny old world...
government debt not being real money or needing to be repaid
It's almost like some people are wholly unaware of the concept of undated govt bonds which were never due to be repaid. Among other things.
(Though the govt has recently repaid some as a political stunt, at least they said they would a few years back, I wasn't really paying attention..)
it seems that way, wages aren't really going up, food and energy bills have gone up 15-25%
and stealth taxes seem to have been brushed under the carpet.
- Income TAX / Paye Thresholds static for the decade 2028
- Capital Gains allowances reductions from £12.3k pa to £6k this tax year to £3k pa in 2024/25
- Dividends Allowance reduction £2k to £1k to £500
even Interest allowances are down to £1k basic rate tax payer £500 HighRate
Either money is paid back sooner out of our present economy by the poorest to the richest or it’s paid back later by the poorest’ s children to the richest’s children.
This would be a functionally stupid thing to do. It's money that is circulating in the non-government sector that has yet to be taxed back. It would included NS&I, Bonds, savings etc - you want to contract the economy ? Your children won't pay it back and neither will their children.
Can you detail how often the national debt is repaid?
(clue hardly ever.)
The public is not on the hook for it.
Bonds are purchased with money previously spent into the economy by the government. It's simply how it works.
It’s almost like some people are wholly unaware of the concept of undated govt bonds which were never due to be repaid. Among other things.
Insofar as money is "real" explain who pays back these undated govt bonds or who buys them if they are never going to be repaid.
https://royalsociety.org/blog/2018/09/perpetual-motion/
The lure of perpetual motion, however, is such that designs continued to be submitted to the Royal Society, by individuals as diverse as reverends and shoemakers, even after it had been repeatedly debunked. There appears to have been a mistaken belief that the Society offered a prize for anyone who could solve the conundrum.
There is a very good fake in the Royal Soc... noone with any sense believes it's anything other than a fake/illusion.
Insofar as money is “real” explain who pays back these undated govt bonds or who buys them if they are never going to be repaid
Well the BoE owns £896Bn of them for a start. Are you concerned that the issuer of currency owns Bonds it purchased with new money creation?
Does that make you not sleep at night?
New bonds are issued all the time as old ones are expired. It's been happening for years.
Debt per se isnt the issue
Its the respective interest charge that goes alongside it
We're currently spend more on interest than Policing, and once the increased interest rates fully feed through, it will end up being greater than the amount we spend on Education.
For every £1 of tax someone pays, 7.6p of that goes out in interest.
Whos receiving that interest?
(its not the poor)
Its the respective interest charge that goes alongside it
Why is that a problem? Ever thought about where the money comes from to pay that interest (clue: it's not taxes!)? The interest paid on govt 'debts' is simply the result of the fiat money system being based on debt and a promise to pay. Without interest fiat money systems would collapse. It's essentially a big ponzi scheme, but the reason it doesn't collapse like other ponzi schemes is because the government can create new money in peretuity to keep it going.
For every £1 of tax someone pays, 7.6p of that goes out in interest.
See above. Interest paid on govt bonds is not funded from taxes. Where do you think the money to pay those taxes came from in the first place?
(its not the poor)
It's everyone. If your money is in a bank rather than hidden under the bed, then you're the recipient of interest which comes from the issuance of govt bonds. Assuming of course that we don't have negative interest rates.
Well the BoE owns £896Bn of them for a start. Are you concerned that the issuer of currency owns Bonds it purchased with new money creation?
I'm concerned that anyone would think this is new money creation?
If money is a promissory note for goods or services then goods and services being equal all this did is devalue the goods and services.
New bonds are issued all the time as old ones are expired. It’s been happening for years.
Seems like an endless transfer your debt with a free month bank/CC offer.
To give a local example ... my local council borrowed about £2Bn of public works money
This was distributed to some developers and contractors and we now have net assets <<£2Bn (in total not just where the money went) and total debt is £2.4Bn (per 100,000)
So either they do a s104 (equivalent of bankruptcy) or something else??? (increased CT/less services???) the interest alone is many times the total income of the council ... they made a loss on practically EVERY "investment"...
Either way the developers/contractors have been paid this money and it has been transferred to the rich already..
So however you look at this, the money has gone to the rich (it's been paid and in their accounts)... so where did it come from?
At the point it was paid or somewhere it became "real" (even if it started as some hypothetical self loan)... so it had to come from somewhere (inflation, low pay ??)
