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While pandering to trump like a poodle.
[b]@Northwind[/b] Spot on. The fact that she is throwing the election is part of a larger plan; Cameron was always anti EU and did a pathetic job of playing against his cohort Johnson. May's job is to take the flak in her own name (there has been precious little mention of the 'Conservative brand' in this election), lose and thereby allow the Labour party to deal with the flying cacky.
There's definitely a sense of this is the general election hot potato that no party really wants to win, for fear of being tainted as the party in government who ballsed up the Brexit deal, affecting their party's rating going forward.
insist that no deal is better than a bad deal,
Eh? You really think that a bad deal is better than no deal? Even if it leaves us worse off?
You don't have any BATNA at all?
This no deal/bad deal thing is bollocks.
A) What are the economic and social consequences of leaving the EU without an agreement in place?
B) What are the economic and social consequences of the 'bad' deal?
Which is worse A or B
Note: option A is still a 'deal'
What odds on a labour/SNP government?
Eh? You really think that a bad deal is better than no deal? Even if it leaves us worse off?
No, but that is not a plausible scenario.
@jonnyboi - zero
"No Deal" = WTO = same trade basis with the EU as US, China, Japan (?), Australia etc
In my very humble opinion all these press headlines about a "Corbyn surge" in the polls are just that, clickbait headlines.
We have done the trickle down / inequality thing many times.
In my very humble opinion all these press headlines about a "Corbyn surge" in the polls are just that, clickbait headlines.
Regardless of your opinion, the polls themselves are showing a consistent narrowing of the gap between labour and the conservatives. Even the conservatives themselves are revising their internal predictions
BBC breakfast news reporting that neither leader came off looking better or worse than the other in last night's Q&A / interview...
jonnyboi - Member
Regardless of your opinion, the polls themselves are showing a consistent narrowing of the gap between labour and the conservatives. Even the conservatives themselves are revising their internal predictions
Noticed that for the first time, the latest Tory PEB mentioned / warned of a possible hung parliament and Labour / SNP alliance.
The best deal for trade with the EU is as is, minimal barriers and involvement in writing the standards.
Anything else means less influence and more red tape.
As a huge proportion of our trade is with our geographic neighbours, it is going to be impossible to replace. Appealing to some mythical past isn't going to help. The UK was rich because it took raw materials from the empire processed them and sold them back to a captive market.
The UK is no powerhouse, it isn't the basket case it was in the '70s, but then that isn't difficult.
.Yeah, Martin McGuinness would not have been NI education secretary if it's wasn't for the violence.
I'm late but the last part of that sentence should read,
if it wasn't for education in prison.
MI5 were making serious inroads in the hierarchy in the late 80's and 90's. McGuiness saw which way the wind was blowing and changed tack. His de facto cease fire in Derry City from 1991 was proof of this.
I'm late catching up on the last week or so of the thread but my staunchly Unionist mother-in-law had some good words to say about the man much to my surprise a month ago.
/hijack
Regardless of your opinion, the polls themselves are showing a consistent narrowing of the gap between labour and the conservatives. Even the conservatives themselves are revising their internal predictions
2015:
[img]
2015:
So Labour majority then????
if it wasn't for education in prison.
A subtle but very important point,
Might even have relevance for the current UK threat
"No deal is better than a bad deal" - is this yet more nonsense peddled by Theresa May and her gang of incompetents? Like "Strong and Stable" ?
BBC breakfast news reporting that neither leader came off looking better or worse than the other in last night's Q&A / interview...
From which you conclude? Something about the interview? Or something about the BBC?
This no deal/bad deal thing is bollocks.A) What are the economic and social consequences of leaving the EU without an agreement in place?
B) What are the economic and social consequences of the 'bad' deal?
Which is worse A or B
Note: option A is still a 'deal'
Over what timescale? Surely we need to look medium to long term to really see whether Brexit has been successful?
On the current analysis, moving to WTO tariffs will add around £5-10Bn to costs for exporters. Sticking 2 fingers up to the EU in the "divorce" negotiations would save us time and £60-100Bn - enough to provide a complete offset on WTO tariffs for exporters for the first decade.
oldnpastit - Member
"No deal is better than a bad deal" - is this yet more nonsense peddled by Theresa May and her gang of incompetents? Like "Strong and Stable" ?
Increasingly sounds like expectation management to me. Regardless of how bad the deal is 'Look we got a deal. We said no deal better than a bad one, so this MUST be a good deal."
And once again the supporters will lap it up...
Aren't current polls adjusted to account for errors in the last election polling estimates?
Ref. the $2 a day and trickle down. Wealth has never been created by the richest. It is simply centralised by them. All the graph shows is that the poorest are creating more for themselves.
DrJ - Member
From which you conclude? Something about the interview? Or something about the BBC?
Assuming they were watching the same thing I was, it says way more about the BBC I reckon. Was hoping that was kind of implicit in my ellipsis.
enough to provide a complete offset on WTO tariffs for exporters for at least the first 5 years.
Are you suggesting that the government subsidises all imports and exports?
I'd imagine some fairly hefty bad feeling for not fulfilling the obligations to the EU - the UK's largest trading partner.
sense of proportion:
For Information: numbers USA (the producers of that vid) is an anti immigration organisation whose figures and facts have been questioned by the Southern Poverty Law Centre, and Factcheck, and is one of many organisations founded and run by John Tanton who is pro eugenics and deeply racist.
Have no doubt that as an organisation , it's primary concern is stopping brown people coming to the USA, not preventing or solving world poverty
1) A fenced hard border between Northern and Ireland, likely re-igniting the Troubles
2) 900,000 UK citizens resident in EU countries have to return back to live in UK
3) Tariffs on all UK goods exported to the EU, almost certainly triggering a major recession
4) Massive bureaucratic non-tariff barriers to British exports – sixty pages of forms for every consignment
4) No access to the Schengen database and other EU security and policing resources
5) British citizens need to apply for visas to visit EU countries and stand in two hour long queues at many EU airports
6) UK universities removed from World’s leading scientific and research programmes.
CRAIGMURRAY.ORG.UK Hmmm, I wonder if Theresa May is wrong on this one as well?
Agree totally with Craig Murray, I was just pointing out as much in the EU thread. ..
No deal is an idiotic stance to take
i have always been pretty scathing in my dislike of Corbyn since he turned up at the steel works in a scruffy jumper when there was the potential for thousands of job losses. However I thought he came across very well in the interview/puclic questioning last night.
I don't know why the press keep hounding him about stuff he said 35 years ago. I wouldn't want to be held to what i said 10 years ago let alone 35.
I also think the conservatives (and lib dems) are loosing out by over focus on brexit, I think people a getting bored, I also think that the other EU states will dictate what happens to us whoever we have in charge.
However I thought he came across very well in the interview/puclic questioning last night.
That comes from having a position and sticking to it, and having the confidence to defend it. Theresa May is the exact opposite. She has no detailed or thought-through position on pretty much anything outside of vacuous soundbites. She changes her views depending on how it plays with the focus groups and tabloids (how many u-turns?), and then can't defend them in any meaningful way, and completely fails to display any confidence or even interest in what she's saying.
The public can see all this. In the space of 4 weeks she's gone from being an invincible leader to a dithering wreck. It's Gordon Brown all over again, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends with the same result.
oldnpastit - that list is a joke but a perfect example of taking the very worst possible outcomes, no matter how unlikely and then presenting them as fact / something that will definitely happen.
* Tariffs on all UK goods exported to the EU won't "almost certainly trigger a major recession" - the typical tariff will add 3% to cost. For most exporters the drop in the pound easily offsets future tariffs and that's before any tariff related allowances granted by the Government,
* "Massive bureaucratic non-tariff barriers to British exports – sixty pages of forms for every consignment" reads very much like it's written by someone who has very little experience of export controls / customs brokerage. In reality most documentation is generated automatically and depending on fright routes will be cleared in advance as it moves across borders. The likes of DHL, Expeditors etc. already do this tens of thousands of times a day worldwide for their customers.
* No access to the Schengen database and other EU security and policing resources - would be entirely self defeating for the UK. Why would the EU's leaders want to make their own citizens less secure?
* British citizens don't need to apply for trip-specific visas or stand in two hour long queues at many non EU airports. As some of the largest recipients of Brit tourist spending do we seriously think Spain, Greece, Italy etc. would have no interest in speeding the flow of tourists through their airports?
* Many of the World’s leading scientific and research programmes already include institutions in China, Singapore, North America etc. Most of the world's leading research isn't exclusive to the EU so the impact is massively over exaggerated.
You realise that May has no intention of salvaging anything from it? Given the chance she's going to be bloody awkward, insist that no deal is better than a bad deal, and crash us out as hard and as ugly as she possibly can.
This. The farage tweet about Corbyn is very telling about what kind of brexit he thinks May is thinking of, and its not the one the chief instigators of brexit wanted.
One of the ladies in our shop has just done her postal vote.
She lives in a constituency that the libs could take back from the tories , she likes the lib policies and voted to remain.
So she voted Tory as she doesn't like corbyn.
She is an intelligent person, very practical and a steady hand. But for ****s sake.....aaaaargh.
Yip, hence why the tories are utterly terrified of saying bugger all to Trump. Over the Paris deal alone they should tell him to do one , but nope, utterly belligerent politics is the way forward in the hope that being trumps poodle will somehow be respected.ferrals - Member
I also think that the other EU states will dictate what happens to us whoever we have in charge.
A win for progressives all over... 😕
just5minutes - Member
oldnpastit - that list is a joke but a perfect example of taking the very worst possible outcome
by very worst possible outcomes, you mean..... No Deal..... 🙄
that aside the rest of your rebuttals are either just wishlist, wrong or missing the point entirely
@zippy no surprise and exactly what a number of us pointed out with Corbyn. The Lib Dems don't stand for anything and their/Clegg's behaviour in the Coalition put paid to me ever voting for them again - in my 54 years I have voted Lib Dem almost exclusively with one vote for Blair in 1997 (pointless as Labour could not possibly win in my constituency)
Guido Fawkes on Corbyn's Terrorist sympathies
ORDER-ORDER.COM Leaving with WTO tariffs is in my view the best outcome for the UK, the EU seem incapable of agreeing a sensible deal as they have tens of thousands of bureaucrats whose gravy train depends on it's preservation. There will be a deal but it will come after a period of WTO tariffs, it will be a deal like Canada's with ZERO budget contributions and no freedom of movement equivalents.
@seaso the Paris climate deal is a bad deal for the US as it doesn't include China or India (who are big users of coal generated electricity), it's almost pointless IMO. There is a good reason Obama never signed it until he was in full lame duck mode.
zippykona - Member - Block User - Quote
One of the ladies in our shop has just done her postal vote.
She lives in a constituency that the libs could take back from the tories , she likes the lib policies and voted to remain.
So she voted Tory as she doesn't like corbyn.
She is an intelligent person, very practical and a steady hand. But for **** sake.....aaaaargh.
Had a similar conversation with one of my wife's friends a few months back on the topic of Brexit. Very intelligent and articulate, but then also fessed up to have been googling the implications of Brexit the day after the vote, and being rather remorseful as a result. FFS.
Guido Fawkes on Corbyn's Terrorist sympathies
Guido Fawkes bashing a left-wing politician? Whatever next!
@seaso the Paris climate deal is a bad deal for the US as it doesn't include China or India (who are big users of coal generated electricity), it's almost pointless IMO
Jambafact #8712
yes it does China & India have to reduce their emissions by 2030, rather than 2020
but dont let pesky facts get in the way of your opinions
Even if so(I can't say I know the exact details there) but lead by example Jamba... A climate deal doesn't need to be multilateral to start it.jambalaya - Member
@seaso the Paris climate deal is a bad deal for the US as it doesn't include China or India (who are big users of coal generated electricity), it's almost pointless IMO. There is a good reason Obama never signed it until he was in full lame duck mode.
But lets not kid ourselves that's why trump et al don't want to sign it, it's cause they are fundamentally against it. (Hopefully the Americans will come back into the fold in 4 years time once the trump experiment has run it's course.)
The public can see all this. In the space of 4 weeks she's gone from being an invincible leader to a dithering wreck. It's Gordon Brown all over again, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends with the same result.
I agree up to the last bit, as I still think she'll win simply because Corbyn is totally unpalatable for many. People won't be voting for May, but against Corbyn.
The fact that the Tories are in this mess is fairly stunning, since anyone half decent would have walked it against Corbyn.
Although maybe this failure could work out okay, as a Tory majority of say ~20 might not be that bad a result for the UK. Enough to get stuff done, but not enough to be total idiots.
Although maybe this failure could work out okay, as a Tory majority of say ~20 might not be that bad a result for the UK. Enough to get stuff done, but not enough to be total idiots.
would have been a complete waste of the ~ £100million it cost the taxpayer to put on this election though
and a serious blow to her credibility, the Tories will discard her with their usual efficiency
Yes, and a slim majority might make Theresa's position untenable given the predicted landslide. The criticism she'll get for triggering the election will be unbearable.
Edit: I see kimbers ninja edited to make the same point
The fact that the Tories are in this mess is fairly stunning, since anyone half decent would have walked it against Corbyn.
I seem to recall the same attitude to Dave wiping the floor with the totally discredited and bungling disaster area that was Gordon Brown.
Didn't quite work out like that, did it?
But, yeah..... being in the present situation speaks volumes about May's (obviously very limited) political capabilities, judgement, and her arrogance and complacency.
May's attitude reminds me of a top premiership football team who are drawn against lower league opposition in the FA Cup, and think that all they have to do is turn up. And we all know what can happen there
Agree with those saying she'll be gone, she might win but she won't be the Prime Minister who completes the EU negotiations, just the one who wasted £100m, several months of time when she could of been working on a deal and made the UK government look incompetent
@ninfan. You can post a single newspaper article from 2015 if you want. But it doesn't change the fact that consistent polling data across a number of sources shows the lead narrowing.
Also, Corbyn won the paxoff last night. Comprehensively.