Jeremy Corbyn

Miliband lost for one reason only: People were (Rightly or wrongly) scared of a Labour/SNP coalition.

I'll be in a minority of 1 on this but I agree with Blair that Brown could have won if he'd defended Labours record instead of pretty much accepting the narrative that Labour ****ed up. Both elections were close after all.

Its an interesting question though, what's the point in democracy if the only people whos votes matter are a few hundred thousand centrists in marginal seats.

I'll be in a minority of 1 on this but I agree with Blair that Brown could have won if he'd defended Labours record instead of pretty much accepting the narrative that Labour ****ed up.

Miliband lost for one reason only: People were (Rightly or wrongly) scared of a Labour/SNP coalition.

Really????????

Is this the narrative that elected Corbyn?

Really????????

All those question marks suggests that you are impatient for the answer. Let me help :

[url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/07/07/labour-snp-coalition-poll-general-election-2015_n_7741776.html ]Labour Lost 2015 General Election Over SNP Coalition Fear, Poll Finds][/url]

[i]"Conservative campaigns that warned of a Labour-SNP coalition in the aftermath of the May 2015 General Election were key to David Cameron remaining prime minister, new research has revealed."[/i]

I suspect that she has received new legal advice that the PLP will be able to exclude Corbyn from the ballot paper

Nail on head. It's the only possible explanation. She can't possibly think she can win against Corbyn, let alone succeed where Miliband failed in an election and where they expect Corbyn to fail. Presumably if they succeed in Corbyn being excluded then someone else will join the leadership ballot?

I really don't know where this will lead. The PLP had the option of splitting, but they don't have the balls to do that, so they think they can override the members, so now the ball's in the membership's court, and if Corbyn isn't on the ballot then god knows what will happen.

What I don't understand is why Corbyn didn't take the option of stepping aside in return for a guarantee that a leftwing candidate would be on the ballot. Seems like the politics are secondary to the personalities. Not like the left wing to become obsessed with personalities is it? They never bloody learn.

Nail on head.

Not quite. It's slightly more complicated than that. I suggested : [i]"the PLP will be able to exclude Corbyn from the ballot paper"[/i] but in fact it will be the NEC which decides how any leadership ballot is conducted.

Of course an individual in the PLP might be able to exclude Corbyn from the ballot paper by mounting a legal challenge to the NEC's decision.

This however might not be necessary as the New Labour/Blairites on the NEC still have very significant clout, so they might exclude him anyway.

Although the timing of the coup might be significant as the NEC is at present undergoing nominations/elections for representatives. Judging by the mood in the party towards the Blairite wing, not least with this week's publication of Chilcot's report, it is reasonable to assume that the NEC might next month take on a less New Labour character.

I reckon the plotters might have considered this and it contributed to the timing of their coup.

Just to add to my previous post it should be perhaps pointed out that although any challenger to the Leader requires the nominations of 20% of MPs, ie 51 nominations, the Leader only needs 15%, ie 38 nominations. So as 40 MPs voted to support Corbyn in the confidence vote it would suggest that he has the 38 required to be on the ballot paper.

However you have to assume that the plotters have done their homework, defeat will be very humiliating for them and will also simply leave Corbyn in a stronger position, so presumably they believe that under pressure from them at least 3 of the 40 won't nominate him.

probably best timing for all this for labour leadership in a selfish way for the labour party. Their opposition at the moment is against a prime minister on his way out who in all honesty cgaf. So you may as well get your own house in order whilst everyone slumps in their post eu hangover.

Problem is Angela Eagle is the best they have got to offer? I mean if your gonna rebel at least have a succession plan, wasn't that the problem with Blair and the right of labour in the Chilcott report? FFS learn. Its the blair era that lost the labour base vote.

I do think there is a few good potential future labour leaders keeping their nose clean in all this. I think Corbyn will put labour on the right path then a slightly more right of Corbyn leader will come in at the next labour crisis but still be no-where near current labour right.

Suspect you are true ernie and I supect some fo the 40 did it for loalty and can be leant on.

What I don't understand is why Corbyn didn't take the option of stepping aside in return for a guarantee that a leftwing candidate would be on the ballot. Seems like the politics are secondary to the personalities.

WTF should he stand down?

Its pretty hard for an elected leader to do the right thing and hand the party back to some folk he must, frankly, despise personally and now politically.They are making the problem here not him

The reality is Corbyn cannot lead the PLP but he is the parties choice
Personally I think the PLP need to adjust as they cannot just ignore the members. I see little chance of this happening and I am not sure why all the moral pressure is on Corbyn to do the right thing He is the rightful elected leader who will win again if allowed to stand That is hardly a weak position to be in. If the blairites win it just splits the party at grass roots. If corbyn wins it splits the party at the PLP level

Neither is a great option at all. I dont see a compromise choice personally.

Junkyard - lazarus
....Neither is a great option at all. I dont see a compromise choice personally.

The Blairites could simply cross the floor and join the party they really aspire to be.

"it should be perhaps pointed out that although any challenger to the Leader requires the nominations of 20% of MPs, ie 51 nominations, the Leader only needs 15%, ie 38 nominations"

How are JCs followers arguing he doesn't need nominations if it's written in the rules that he needs 15pc?

The reality is Corbyn cannot lead the PLP but he is the parties choice

Its been pointe out repeatedly that the party members are not representative of the electorate - by nature you end up with those with the strongest opinions and feelings, many of whom are, frankly, bonkers.

Look at it this another way, what type of person would actually [b]join[/b] the Conservative party? The Tories would have to be utterly crazy to let them dictate their policy or leadership (even giving them the current choice of Kang and Kodos is pretty foolish IMO)

The Blairites could simply cross the floor and join the party they really aspire to be.

Since it's become the latest Pavlovian 'slur du jour' against anyone who even cares to question Corbyn - how about you define 'blairite'?
What/who do you really mean? Are you really suggesting that, say, former postman, communist and communication workers union leader Alan Johnson is really secretly a closet Tory? Go and read his autobiography and maybe give your head a good shake to let the sawdust fall out.

ninfan - M...er
...Since it's become the latest Pavlovian 'slur du jour' against anyone who even cares to question Corbyn - how about you define 'blairite'?...

I would judge by actions not words, so start with anyone who supported the Iraq war, and did not actively vote against the austerity measures and other peasant/worker crushing agendas of the Tories, and not actively opposed to the reaming of the NHS. And a Blairite usually supports the weapons of Mass Murder (aka Trident).

I would actually prefer not to use the word Blairites, but calling them Tories is so confusing while they are still in the Labour Party.

Maybe I should use the Scottish term - Red Tories.

The last thing I want is for the Labour Party to appeal to people like you. If you don't mind me saying.

......and there you have it. In a nutshell. Why the Corbyn labour party is unelectable. Far more concerned with gobbing off about points of principle, which are worn like badges of honour, rather than even attempt to appeal to anyone who doesn't share their narrow, self-righteous worldview. Successful politicians - ones who win elections - are pragmatic and understand that most things involve compromise.

There are few things less appealing to most people in a centrist country like the UK, than some one insisting in the fact that their way is the 'One True Path' and telling people they are just wrong for not seeing that. Thats true for the militant lefties of Momentum, and if (as I suspect they're about to) the Tory's elect Leadsom, I suspect we'll soon see how unpalatable people find her extremely right-wing, Bill Cash style attitudes too. She'll be turfed out at the first opportunities.

Tony Blair was electable. As he proved repeatedly. No matter how much this winds the lefties up
David Cameron was electable. As he's jusyproved, before throwing it away.
Jeremy Corbyn is in no way electable. Too left wing by far for most people.
Andrea Leadsom is in no way electable. Too right wing by far for most people.

So given that UK elections are won on the centre ground. To go into the next general election with those two as party leaders would simply have to see both of them rejected, and the formation of a more centrist politics with refugees from both the less rabid, more moderate left and right.

Hello there Lib Dems. So recently seen as political toast. Now suddenly seeing their opportunity to be reborn and relevant once more

Modern politics, since the last GE is absolutely bonkers!

I would judge by actions not words, so start with anyone who supported the Iraq war, and did not actively vote against the austerity measures and other peasant/worker crushing agendas of the Tories, and not actively opposed to the reaming of the NHS. And a Blairite usually supports the weapons of Mass Murder (aka Trident).

So, essentially, everyone who supported Labour Party policy, as set out by the JPC 😯

Andrea Leadsom is in no way electable. Too right wing by far for most people.

Agreed 100%, and to be honest I think much the same about Theresa.

However you have to assume that the plotters have done their homework, defeat will be very humiliating for them and will also simply leave Corbyn in a stronger position

Captain of the Titanic?

However you have to assume that the plotters have done their homework, defeat will be very humiliating for them and will also simply leave Corbyn in a stronger position

He has barely enough MPs for a Shadow cabinet and some in prominent positions have virtually no experience. That doesn't make him stronger

......and there you have it. In a nutshell. Why the Corbyn labour party is unelectable. Far more concerned with gobbing off about points of principle, which are worn like badges of honour, rather than even attempt to appeal to anyone who doesn't share their narrow, self-righteous worldview. Successful politicians - ones who win elections - are pragmatic and understand that most things involve compromise.

There are few things less appealing to most people in a centrist country like the UK, than some one insisting in the fact that their way is the 'One True Path' and telling people they are just wrong for not seeing that. Thats true for the militant lefties of Momentum, and if (as I suspect they're about to) the Tory's elect Leadsom, I suspect we'll soon see how unpalatable people find her extremely right-wing, Bill Cash style attitudes too. She'll be turfed out at the first opportunities.

Tony Blair was electable. As he proved repeatedly. No matter how much this winds the lefties up
David Cameron was electable. As he's jusyproved, before throwing it away.
Jeremy Corbyn is in no way electable. Too left wing by far for most people.
Andrea Leadsom is in no way electable. Too right wing by far for most people.

So given that UK elections are won on the centre ground. To go into the next general election with those two as party leaders would simply have to see both of them rejected, and the formation of a more centrist politics with refugees from both the less rabid, more moderate left and right.

Hello there Lib Dems. So recently seen as political toast. Now suddenly seeing their opportunity to be reborn and relevant once more

Modern politics, since the last GE is absolutely bonkers!

That's pretty spot on.

I like Corbyn, but he's no leader, and certainly not one to unite a split country.

Similarly, I can't believe the Tories think May and Leadsome are in any way electable.

Similarly, I can't believe the Tories think May and Leadsome are in any way electable.

Joined Labour this weekend, go Jezza!

Similarly, I can't believe the Tories think May and Leadsome are in any way electable.

They don't need to be thanks to JC. Gove may have been a step too far though.

As binners said: Now is the time for the Lib Dems to step up.

As binners said: Now is the time for the Lib Dems to step up.

They are in disarray too, electoral losses hit them hard and they've had to cut infrastructure. I don't see too many seats the Lib Dems are going to take back or threaten Tories on. How are they going to get any airtime from Tories/Brexit and Labour in-fighting ? All a long way away anyway.

Simple - "we respect the referendum, but we don't agree. We are the only party at this GE who are standing 100% to remain in Europe."

A unique proposition that most (now) would support.

I don't see too many seats the Lib Dems are going to take back or threaten Tories on.

You're missing the point Jammers. The world has just changed. Things are most certainly not what they were a few weeks ago. The ground is shifting under the politicians feet.

You can't see the Lib Dems taking back seats? Hmmmmmmm.... surely that depends entirely on just how mental the Tories are about to get?

Given that Leadsom (who I reckon, given the present mood of the Tory's is a dead cert) is in the Bill Cash/IDS wing of the fully-paid-up barking mad, We-Hate-****ing-EVERYONE Nasty Party, how long are more moderate centrist voters going to find their actions any more palatable that the Bargain Basement Lenin at the other end of the political spectrum? I can't see many people other than the frankly insane hang 'em and flog 'em brigade of the Tory right finding them very appealing. Can you?

Actually... I'm probably asking the wrong person, aren't I? 😉

The voters have been offered this Uber-Daily Mail style Tory party twice before. Once under IDS himself, and once under Michael Howard. Both gifted labour landslides. Granted that was an electable labour party. A centrist, moderate, dare I say it.... 'Blairite' labour party 😯

how long are more moderate centrist voters going to find their actions any more palatable

"its the economy stupid"

In contrast, to what Jezza said this morning, unemployment is down, inflation is subdued, inequality has fallen, wages are increasing.

Plus we have a swivvel-eyed RW looney Austerity Chancellor (no really) who has just abandoned his fiscal targets to continue with a (relatively) loose fiscal stance.

Now, ok, Brexit puts a lot of this into question but I doubt whether any future Tory PM is going to want to jeopardise this - why would they?

Now, ok, Brexit puts a lot of this into question but I doubt whether any future Tory PM is going to want to jeopardise this - why would they?

Because I can see it happening already. People voted to leave Europe for a lot of different reasons. But you can see it in the eyes of the Tory Right that they think what this represents is a general lurch away from the centre ground, and to the right, on matters other than Europe. They think this is their moment.

Just as the lefties in labour have always had this bonkers belief that some day the majority will miraculously become socialists and vote them in, the Tory Right are just as misguided in believing a majority are going to suddenly be converted to their frankly insane worldview.

You're looking at things logically Hurty. You may not have noticed but thats the one thing thats in pretty short supply in Westminster at the moment

True

But, dont forget once the dust has settled, these are people who react to the events in front of them. They are not in control. And they crave one thing above all - POWER.

GO is a good example - his actions are completely different from the rhetoric that surrounds them. He is undertaking a combination of ultra-loose monetary policy with loose fiscal policy and indirectly a weaker currency policy. Which bit of the ultra RW manual does this come out of?

Actually... I'm probably asking the wrong person, aren't I?

🙂

My 2 cents is that we and much of Europe has moved to the right. This is due to a number of factors not least a degree of economic hardship which generally hardens attitudes.

Tory appeal to centre ground is strong, as we've seen with the whole UKIP debate over last 5+ years its actually strengthened the Tories and we now have a Brexit vote. Those here hoping that Teresa May is somehow going to deliver the left/centre ground an electoral gift are much mistaken imo. I'm sure we'll see a load of Thatcher comparisons which will appeal to the Corbynistas but imo that'll win nothing.

I don't believe GO is ultra right wing at all Hurty. Thats the point. George and Dave have been pretty centrist. Well ... compared to the loons who now look like getting their hands on the steering wheel. Osborne is finished. And so, I suspect, is his philosophy.

I can just imagine the loony tunes, free market slash and burn economic policies that IDS and Leadsom have in mind, given the present vacuum where the opposition is meant to be

Jeremy Corbyn is in no way electable. Too left wing by far for most people.

If you are swayed by the meeja who are worried that if JC does represent what people want then bang goes their ability to make Westminster jump and dance to their tune. (And PLP who mostly don't represent the views of their constituents and frankly treat them with ill-disguised contempt, Jess Phillips that would be you that would).

Its nothing to do with the meeja.

Its the fact that the UK population aren't going to elect someone to run the country who can't even fill all his shadow cabinet positions, because the vast majority of his own MP's think he's a frankly crap leader, and they don't want to be tainted by either his politics or his general air of ineptitude

It doesn't matter what my opinion is, what yours is, or what the editor of the Guardian or the Sun think of him. People aren't daft. Its a basic question of competence. Piss ups and breweries. That kind of thing. Whichever way you slice it, there is more chance of me becoming the next pope than JC becoming PM

Osborne is finished.

As a leadership candidate, for now at least. I think there is a good chance he is kept on for "stability"

We shall see - personally I think the likelihood of slash and burn policies are minimal. Anyway there is another Tory thread..back to Jezza, who wasn't that bad on Marr this morning.

I had forgotten about his "mandate" 😉 but he fortunately reminded me 10 times this morning. Phew, cant forget that then.

Eagle was mediocre at best but she was with that fool Peston on his comedy show.

It doesn't matter what my opinion is, what yours is, or what the editor of the Guardian or the Sun think of him. People aren't daft.

Fair point.

Is it because they're all racists? 😉

I can't help but agree with Binners on the imminent future within the Tory party

Anyone with half an ounce of sense knows that, both politically and economically, the 'Brexit strategy' needs to retain the single market at (almost) any cost. Both the current leadership candidates are (at least in public) openly discussing leaving the single market as their plan, even suggesting that rather than reassuring industry and investors that our national aim is 'Norway plus', is utterly bonkers. This 'lurch to the right' mentality will kill the Conservatives chances at the next election.

A centrist Labour party promoting 'Brexit light' has it all to play for at the moment. But as we saw on Marr this morning - Corbyn isn't interested in winning elections.

Binnera the media is everything. If they don't publish what you're up to then it hasn't happened for the average chap on the Clapham omnibus. If they are openly hostile then there isn't a prayer because the majority of the not overtly political people can't or won't think for themselves or do basic research. It is literally the Sun wot wins it.

I am certain that retaining the single market at any cost is a mistake. We should wait and let the EU stew a bit and ask some dififcult questions about Greece, lets see what happens in France and German GE's and Austria too. I susoect the Tories will do nothing rash, it will be a bit wait and see for a few months at least.

Media - I am amazed at the power people assign to the press, the press generally follow not lead opinion. IMO people aren't forming an opinion about Corbyn based on a few press reports, they look at the big picture events as seen on TV

Jamba - I did say almost.

and as i said, I think thats as much of a political reality (in light of the closeness of the vote even amongst supporters) as anything else

IMO people aren't forming an opinion about Corbyn based on a few press reports, they look at the big picture events as seen on TV

Umm, who makes the TV broadcasts? 😆

😀 yes I get that but bbc and itv are pretty straight imo, certainly more balanced/agenda free than written

the press generally follow not lead opinion

This. They have to or nobody would buy the papers.

Media - I am amazed at the power people assign to the press, the press generally follow not lead opinion. IMO people aren't forming an opinion about Corbyn based on a few press reports, they look at the big picture events as seen on TV

The media is a funny thing as it can manipulate AND be manipulated in equal measure. Yes, they have to follow opinion, but they choose which opinion to follow and twist anything and everything to fit their resultant agenda.

They are also susceptible to repeating whatever lies/spin they are being fed, and pick and choose which ones to "research" and/or repeat, depending on what political agenda they align themselves with.

As a result, they have the power to shape people's opinions, especially as lots of people like to be led.

Well Diane Abbot was on the Today programme defending Jezza. Diane is always who I look too for intelligent, measured impartial and informed analysis. To summarise...

blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate..... blah, blah, blah.... Jeremy has a democratic mandate.....

You get the picture...

Then it pointed out that Dianne is the shadow health minister. I wouldn't want Diane abbot running a raffle at the school fete. Never mind the health service. Thats how desperate things are. Diane Abbot is the shadow health minister. Says it all really