Forum menu
Is the cost of fuel...
 

Is the cost of fuel/energy actually going to come down?

Posts: 6
Free Member
 

Petrol £1.44 Jet near Nantwich this afternoon


 
Posted : 06/12/2022 6:46 pm
Posts: 10634
Full Member
 

Accessing renewables is fast becoming the preserve of top 5%ers. Just another thing to measure the wealth gap without actually managing to close it.
Those with enough hoarded wealth to throw £15-20k at bonus insulation, a solar array and sufficient battery storage will be able to buy themself some extra “energy security” and lower their bills in the long term, but the rest of us remain stuck with whatever energy infrastructure is commercially available, it’s not individual choice it’s Hobson’s choice.

This is twaddle. IF solar and renewables can BUY energy security then anyone with access to some form of finance can take advantage of it, thus fixing* their outgoings at the repayment price of the loan.

*It’s not a true fix as winter will still need some support.

The same economics were true for the early days of EVs.


 
Posted : 06/12/2022 8:02 pm
Posts: 41848
Free Member
 

This is twaddle. IF solar and renewables can BUY energy security then anyone with access to some form of finance can take advantage of it, thus fixing* their outgoings at the repayment price of the loan.

So we're back to the idea that it's only accessible to people that can get a ~£20k loan. I.e. the point you were supposedly arguing against.

It's also inefficient. Better to put a levy on bills and build national infrastructure that can do it in bulk far more effectively. But people* complained as it was a £150** "tax".

* let's be honest, people probably didn't even know about it, they were told they hated it by think tanks and the press.
** average


 
Posted : 06/12/2022 8:32 pm
Posts: 3497
Free Member
Topic starter
 

This is twaddle. IF solar and renewables can BUY energy security then anyone with access to some form of finance can take advantage of it, thus fixing* their outgoings at the repayment price of the loan.

I would challenge you to show me the calculations that suggest this is not going to work out more expensive. And in any case  why would/should anyone risk having to borrow money - no doubt at an interest rate -  in order to fund this? It’s an additional worry that most could do without.

Government backed incentive - yes. Borrowing off the bank - it’s a no from me.


 
Posted : 06/12/2022 8:39 pm
Posts: 13594
Free Member
 

Those with enough hoarded wealth to throw £15-20k at bonus insulation, a solar array and sufficient battery storage will be able to buy themself some extra “energy security” and lower their bills in the long term, but the rest of us remain stuck with whatever energy infrastructure is commercially available, it’s not individual choice it’s Hobson’s choice.

Well we managed 1.2 kWh of solar power today! Bugger all over the WE at it was too cloudy. You'd need a lot of roof space for enough panels to be self sufficient in solar on a murky December day.....


 
Posted : 06/12/2022 8:55 pm
 wbo
Posts: 1771
Free Member
 

'from Russia unless it’s less than $60. Russia won’t sell at that price ' Most Russian oil is selling about 52, 53 dollars so the cap is symbolic rather than effective. It's pretty cheap as transporting it is a big hassle/cost to the buyer


 
Posted : 06/12/2022 9:21 pm
Posts: 3497
Free Member
Topic starter
 

Most Russian oil is selling about 52, 53 dollars so the cap is symbolic rather than effective.

🙄 except we can’t buy it at that price as we’re an OPEC  country - great! It’s as if there are some people in charge making billions out of every one else’s misery. Surely not?


 
Posted : 06/12/2022 9:30 pm
Posts: 4809
Full Member
 

So we’re back to the idea that it’s only accessible to people that can get a ~£20k loan

On one level, it’s a good idea. It’s a, say, ten year fix on the bulk of your energy costs. And after that loan is repayed, very cheap energy.
Interest rates are another kettle of fish but it seems like a fairly simple calculation to loan someone money with repayments equivalent to the utility bill they would subsequently not be paying, knowing the anticipated output of the installed renewable energy.

But really, it’s something available to home owners (or rather house owners) and not to anyone else.
How much extra would a landlord want to charge for a solar powered home?
How does a block of flats divvy up their roof space and power usage?


 
Posted : 06/12/2022 10:12 pm
 wbo
Posts: 1771
Free Member
 

'except we can’t buy it at that price as we’re an OPEC country ' The UK isn't in OPEC or OPEC+- . The UK buys and sells on the open market. OPEC doesn't directly control cost anyway, it's notches supply up and down, indirectly mucking around with the price. We could buy at 60 IF it was worth 60, and anyway Russia say they won't sell to countries who've signed ot the cap.

Oil isn't all one price. A nice barrel of N Sea light crude is worth a lot more than a barrel of sticky junk in the middle of Siberia with no pipeline and only rattly trains to transport it. Transport costs tend to be the buyers problem


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 9:23 am
Posts: 9618
Full Member
 

If the rates don't drop, then there is going to be a hell of a lot of folk in debt/trouble come each winter. It's 'all right' for us lot with our fancy bikes etc to say we've had it (energy) too cheap - many people can't afford it - what do we do about that ?


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 9:42 am
Posts: 3497
Free Member
Topic starter
 

The UK isn’t in OPEC or OPEC+

Well you learn something new every day - I'm guessing we signed up to the cap though - just so we can still be charged huge amounts for energy.

many people can’t afford it – what do we do about that ?

Indeed - I've got no idea but it can't go on for years surely... can it...?


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 9:46 am
 irc
Posts: 5332
Free Member
 

I can't see the numbers adding up for solar battery.

A quick quote for a £20k loan over 10 yea.rs gave me just under £30k payback over 10 year.

At current high prices our electricity is around £1000 a year.

I don't think it would cover all my usage from Nov to Jan

So payback in excess of 30 years. More if it needs any maintenance or repairs in that time.

If prices go back down pay ack time goes up


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 11:11 am
Posts: 91165
Free Member
 

Yes, and you can't move house during that period.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 11:15 am
Posts: 4477
Full Member
 

many people can’t afford it – what do we do about that ?

this worries me greatly. I have a job etc. Im worrying about getting through winter. How the hell are people on lower incomes / more outgoing etc going to afford this. Its generally scary / worrying.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 11:19 am
Posts: 8469
Full Member
 

Indeed. We are both working professionals. We are feeling it, but are adjusting/coping. I can only imagine. My mum lives by herself in a small modern 2 bed terrace in my village. It has a Hive system fitted by the previous owner, so I've helped her tweak it to cut costs.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 11:25 am
 poly
Posts: 9130
Free Member
 

[cynic/] Shareholders are the main priority for the energy companies, whilst they’re getting bumper payouts they’re happy. [/cynic]

of course, we shouldn't forget that most of us are indirectly shareholders through our pensions.  It's a bit convoluted but knee jerk ideas like just nationalising stuff that seems to be profitable aren't necessarily the best way to look after today's pensioners or those trying to grow a pension fund to retire on in the future.

A lot of people are hungry – but far more are cold, going by my Facebook feed. People who were managing ok – with two civil service incomes in the household – are hardly heating their houses at all, sitting around in 12C or less.

Molgrips - I am sure that there are people who are really struggling.  I'm sure that there are people who will die as a fairly direct result of the cost of energy this year (either through hypothermia, illness caught in cold damp houses or mental health issues aggravated by money).  I would however say that from those I encounter complaining most vocally about the cost of heating / electricity - lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun to get away from the cold in the UK and our ridiculous prices.

Whilst I think we do need price caps, and regulation to protect the most vulnerable* - what we have now is a situation where people are starting to think about energy use and where power (political and energy) comes from - so actually I'd be open to discussions about how you wean people off price caps, and pay them more in the first place if necessary.  I've noticed lots of places are not talking about % rises but fixed increases for everyone - lifting up the lowest paid.   Proper competition in the market at the true cost of production should encourage alternative energy sources but also innovative pricing like the EV tariffs that discount at night (hardly a new idea people have had different meters/bills for different times as long as I've been alive - but smart meters and the right tech allow this to be managed much more granularly), but also potentially stuff like district heating etc.

*our energy pricing has never been structured to do that.  We charge you more if you are on a prepayment meter than if you are a good financial risk, and we give discounts to people who have bank accounts and can afford to spread cost equally each month.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 11:54 am
Posts: 91165
Free Member
 

many people can’t afford it – what do we do about that ?

Pretty easy for the government to sort it out, I'd have thought. They just haven't got much idea how to do it and they don't care to find out. All they are doing is just handing money directly to energy companies who are already rich.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 12:05 pm
Posts: 91165
Free Member
 

I would however say that from those I encounter complaining most vocally about the cost of heating / electricity – lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun to get away from the cold in the UK and our ridiculous prices.

Hmm, this does rather sound like poor people aren't allowed inexpensive comforts. And let's face it - driving a mile to the shops costs virtually nothing when you need to own a car to get from the place you can afford to live to the place where you work. A takeaway a month could cost £15 for two, which is a different proposition to £400 of gas in a badly insulated damp old house that's all you can afford to rent.

You are right in that it is forcing people to think about energy usage, which is good, but it's affecting the poor far more than the affluent. If you want to reduce CO2 emissions from domestic fuel usage this is one of the worst ways to go about it.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 12:15 pm
Posts: 41848
Free Member
 

I would however say that from those I encounter complaining most vocally about the cost of heating / electricity – lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun to get away from the cold in the UK and our ridiculous prices.

Self selecting sample, they can't complain on your facebook feed unless they've got broadband and/or a phone contract.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 12:22 pm
Posts: 4809
Full Member
 

lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun

non HD netflix is £6.99 apparently
my phone contract is £12. Try existing in the modern world without one - see stevextc's recent tribulations regarding giving it up (for non financial reasons)
the car that I already own, tax, insure to enable me to work costs ~12p/mile to fuel. and I'll be buying more than I can carry.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 12:42 pm
Posts: 3497
Free Member
Topic starter
 

I would however say that from those I encounter complaining most vocally about the cost of heating / electricity – lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun to get away from the cold in the UK and our ridiculous prices.

I'm not sure what your point is - are you saying if have Netflix/phone/car then you aren't allowed to complain about energy costs. Why not? People can complain about anything that annoys them surely..🤷‍♂️


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 1:02 pm
 irc
Posts: 5332
Free Member
 

The price cap could easily be tweaked. For example I have read (can't find the link now) that the govt is considering limiting the price cap to a certain amount of energy. So use average or less you pay price cap rates. Use more you pay market price on anyting over the limit.

This would cut the cost of the scheme while still supporting average and lower users and encouraging higher users to cut back.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 1:25 pm
Posts: 91165
Free Member
 

A phone is the cheapest way to stay connected with the modern world - a lot of people I know only have a phone, they can't afford computers, broadband or a landline.

And Netflix at a tenner a month or whatever it is is by far the cheapest entertainment around. Staying in with a beer and a snack from the supermarket is about as cheap as it gets and costs far less than any night out. It's also cheaper than buying books to read all evening - a paperback a week for two people costs much more. So all these complaints about people paying for Netflix are really just criticising people for being extremely economical. Unless you think entertainment is unimportant, or poor people aren't entitled to it?


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 1:26 pm
Posts: 7097
Free Member
 

a paperback a week for two people costs much more.

a) there's these things called libraries...
b) there's these things called kindles...
c) there's this app called "kindle"...

its all whizzing in the wind though, compared to some number of hundreds of pounds to avoid black mould and hypothermia.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 3:52 pm
Posts: 41848
Free Member
 

b) there’s these things called kindles…
c) there’s this app called “kindle”…

None of which would work without phone/broadband/contract.

Although as pointed out, at what level of poverty do you judge someone to be not-frivalous?

Can't heat your house? Still eating beans on toast? Should be eating gruel, vegan protein powder* and vitamin pills to save those last few pence.

Agree with your conclusion though, it's a drop in the ocean compared to the issue.

*Whey's cheaper and more disgusting cousin.


 
Posted : 07/12/2022 4:29 pm
Posts: 33967
Full Member
 

Back to car fuel for a mo. My nearest is Asda, 182.7 diesel 158.7 petrol. Costco (20 miles away) has diesel 169.9, petrol 145.9.

Average petrol around me is about 157.9, maybe a bit cheaper, perhaps 156.9, but I fill up In Melksham at Sainsbury’s, and last time I filled up about a week and a half ago petrol was 147.9. I don’t make a special effort, I drive past Melksham for work, so I usually fill up on my way home, or if I’m on my off-work shift, I fill up on my way into Melksham when I go to the pub.

I think OPEC are aiming for 90$ a barrel so petrol/ diesel will not drop.

Pretty sure crude has been around that price plenty of times in the past, but petrol and diesel have been significantly cheaper than they are now. Happy to be proven wrong, but I’m sure it has.


 
Posted : 09/12/2022 1:44 am
Posts: 26890
Full Member
 

we shouldn’t forget that most of us are indirectly shareholders through our pensions.

I would imagine most who can't pay for gas and electricity are not paying into a penaion


 
Posted : 09/12/2022 7:21 am
Posts: 3497
Free Member
Topic starter
 

Pretty sure crude has been around that price plenty of times in the past, but petrol and diesel have been significantly cheaper than they are now. Happy to be proven wrong, but I’m sure it has.

I think you’re right and that’s my worry - now they know people will pay current prices they won’t put the price down for any energy, petrol, diesel, gas, whatever. It’s outrageous really.


 
Posted : 09/12/2022 9:21 am
Posts: 96
Free Member
 

I last ordered heating oil in September 2021 and paod 41p/l. At that time Brent crude was approx 73$/barrel.
Today, Brent is 'down' at $76, yet they are quoting 79p/l for heating oil.
I don't know how long the lag is between oil price changing and that filtering through to heating oil prices, however the price of crude has been dropping slowly for a month now.

Last sept, £1 was $1.37, today it is $1.22. A 10% difference. In no way does that account for the price difference for heating oil (or petrol/diesel).

Big business is taking the piss out of us. It is disgusting.


 
Posted : 09/12/2022 10:04 am
Posts: 10634
Full Member
 

@guest1 - You've still got the lingering effects of the Pandemic in that September 2021 pricing, also, energy prices are higher, which means refining is 3-4 times more expensive than it was in Sept21, finally the £>$ is around 15% less than it was in Sept21. It's not really an apples to apples comparison.


 
Posted : 09/12/2022 10:22 am
Posts: 9010
Free Member
 

Going for the obvious:

Renewables will take over eventually once they have figured out how to massively profit from them.cost effective and efficient batteries to store surplus power to smooth out the inevitable fluctuations with renewables.

Hmm, this does rather sound like poor people aren’t allowed inexpensive comforts.

Maybe. I read it more as these aren't the first people we should be worrying about. I'm not the amongst the poorest in society. I can keep going with a take away or two a month, prime, mobile (giff gaff £6!), fttp. Except.. the holiday bit, and the second car to get me to work (I've cycle commuted for 10+ years). But overall I can still afford a few niceties.


 
Posted : 09/12/2022 11:25 am
Posts: 6683
Free Member
 

There's a bottleneck for shipping leaving the Black Sea currently
Turkiye wants to ensure that each load is insured to protect them against the costs of an oil spillage on their territory
The insurers can only insure Russian oil cargoes that are priced under the G7 cap, so they won't release insurance details just in case they're not (if we don't admit that we've insured it then we can't be sanctioned later)
Other cargoes, including oil from other countries, are stuck in the queue

As someone commented ^^ Russian oil is cheaper anyway and currently sells below the G7 cap, which some countries wanted to set much lower. The lower cap was argued against because Russia might refuse to sell and oil would become scarcer and so more expensive


 
Posted : 10/12/2022 7:39 am
Page 2 / 2