[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

@molegrips it will mean a lot people will lose their jobs sadly. And a lot of people who need care in the home won't get a visit.

Give the lady some credit she has man balls in those designer handbags and Corbyn would like them back.
Abbot for NO11 😯

Indeed cougar, the PLP actually stand to be the biggest winners out of this.

I've never felt so disenfranchised.

+1

😥

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/theresa-may-announces-last-election-20170418126203

Not quite as ridiculous as it sounds.

Sure, we'll have elections, but the effective gerrymandering of the UK by allowing Scotland to be dominated by the SNP means that, unless there's a Labour-SNP alliance (over Nicola's dead body etc.) and no Scottish independence (over Nicola's....) then England and Wales could be moving neatly into the next phase of permanent Conservative governments.

And, for so long as Labour is in dissaray the Conservatives will be able to call elections whenever they wish and we'll continue to return Conservative governments.

Now, for many people this would be ideal (Conservative voters, generally). But for everyone else, unless there's either a fundamental reordering of English and Welsh election boundaries or a move to a lasting Lib-Lab (+ others maybe) pact, it will be a long difficult journey into an unchecked Conservative future.

So, if you aren't a Conservative voter, you may have to vote for Corbyn however much you hate him. Voting for minority parties will only dilute any opposition to May.

I think the last couple of decades of fluffiness will finally be thrown off - every one for themselves...!

@molegrips it will mean a lot people will lose their jobs sadly.

Hmm.. maybe, but maybe not. Not sure it's that clear cut. For example, care homes are funded by councils which get money from government, right? If the min wage goes up to £10ph then that would the in-work benefit bill, surely? so that money saved could pay for the care workers salary increase.

It might drive inflation up though.

I've never felt so disenfranchised.

So at what point do people start taking more direct action / setting off bombs? A genuine question given the apparent pending tory Dictatorship.

If the min wage goes up to £10ph then that would the in-work benefit bill, surely? so that money saved could pay for the care workers salary increase.

You assume that the savings to central government will be passed to local government. I would using all evidence, suggest, not a hope in hell. Yes Min wage will rise and care homes will then shut because they can't pay it, it will be put down to local government incompetence and inability to manage their budgets.

ourmaninthenorth - Member

unless there's a Labour-SNP alliance (over Nicola's dead body etc.)

Nicola'd be pretty happy with that but many English voters don't like the idea of Scottish people having influence in parliament so it's a vote-loser for Labour. According to some, it was the critical vote-loser in the last election. Though maybe largely because Ed Milliband made such an incredible arse of the issue- it was easy to spin it as "The SNP will be in charge" because it was obvious Ed wasn't in charge of his own lunch money by that point.

You assume that the savings to central government will be passed to local government

I think they would have to.

A policy like this has some big implications that need to be dealt with.

unless there's a Labour-SNP alliance (over Nicola's dead body etc.)

It was Labour who refused to consider a coalition with the SNP, not the other way around.

it's a vote-loser for Labour

+

It was Labour who refused to consider a coalition with the SNP, not the other way around.

You're both quite right. I meant it in the current context of Sturgeon striking out hard for independence - the SNP won;t want to risk their own dilution at home when pushing for national self determination.

But nonetheless, the likelihood is currently low, even though Labour do need the SNP (and would therefore have to offer a 2nd referendum, and by doing so shoot themselves in the foot).

Unfortunately, I live in a Tory stronghold. I'll be voting Lib Den based on their pro-EU stance and excellent campaigning on local issues. Labour are essentially non-existent in my part of the world.

it will mean a lot people will lose their jobs sadly.

"many English voters don't like the idea of Scottish people having influence in parliament"

ITYM people in general don't like the idea of nationalists in government.

it's a vote-loser for Labour

What the hell, just add it to the list of other vote losers for Labour

I still find it incredible that they persevere with Corbyn.

Cos Corbyn has policies that they like.

I know, democracy is ridiculous, isn't it?

Tory stronghold for me too, a mere 61% of the vote with lib dems on 15%. Ouch. I struggle to see SNP, Labour and Lib Dems uniting enough behind shared causes to mitigate the damage that is coming or get enough votes for a hung parliament. Labour are still working out which one is the elbow...

ITYM people in general don't like the idea of nationalists in government.

Except British nationalists, they're fine.

Same as bodgy - East Cambridgeshire here, all farmers have Conservative signs in their fields [apart from a few ukip ones), no one votes labour, lib dems do ok

This should have been the offer from the get go, referendum then GE.

Let's see what the scum bags will offer us. They have bribed business with tax breaks, where are ours?

If the BBC ever needs to recruit another political correspondent they need look no further than this STW thread. Love it - this even beats the referendum thread - keep it going guys. 🙂

How depressing...The June election result will remind me yet again of the mindset of this country.

At least between elections i can kid myself there is a more empathetic mentality out there than the reality that the election results deliver. 😀

Labour has had a surge in membership. I presume that means the 6th formers are back in school....

[img] [/img]

The question is how many "Zach Goldsmith" constituencies exist? There are a lot of very unhappy Tory voters in remain areas. They are not comfortable with current proceedings around Brexit. I think Mrs May has rolled the dice due to a lack of confidence on her own backbench support come the Brexit sign off vote. Might be a bit early but I think the Tories could end up a few seats down - possibly a hung parliament? This is a Brexit vote not a GE.

Really is all up in the air. LD might not win any more seats but the anti-Brexit position might split the Tory vote. Or the Labour one for that matter. And how many of the UKIP voters who split the Labour vote last time will return?

*Except British nationalists, they're fine."

The SNP *is* British.

If you vote Tory and are unhappy who would you vote for? Unhappy Tory voters will still vote Tory.

This is a Brexit vote not a GE.

no it's not both main parties are now pro brexit, and lib dems will all over May like glen quagmire given half a sniff of a coalition and Europe can **** off.

Didn't vote in Zacs by election and yes I know he was independant.

I think much has changed and a lot of Tory voters see brexit as a negative impact on their well being.

I've never been one for tactical voting, but if ever there was a time...

0 to 8 pages whilst I've been doing actual work, impressive.

But nonetheless, the likelihood is currently low, even though Labour do need the SNP (and would therefore have to offer a 2nd referendum, and by doing so shoot themselves in the foot).

Bang on, this is very much the point - the only people that a Independence works for mathematically is the Tories.

Klunk what comes out of an MPs gob is rarely an indication of anything other than self preservation - I would suggest most labour mps and many Tories are remainers

Unfortunately, I live in a Tory stronghold. I'll be voting Lib Den based on their pro-EU stance and excellent campaigning on local issues. Labour are essentially non-existent in my part of the world.

We will be Tory here unless there's an outbreak of flu. UKIP took a reasonable second followed by a decent showing from the Green party at the last election; it'll be interesting to see how that changes. We'll be voting tactically, but I'm not sure who we'll tactically vote for at the mo...

[quote=oldmanmtb ]The question is how many "Zach Goldsmith" constituencies exist? There are a lot of very unhappy Tory voters in remain areas. They are not comfortable with current proceedings around Brexit. I think Mrs May has rolled the dice due to a lack of confidence on her own backbench support come the Brexit sign off vote. Might be a bit early but I think the Tories could end up a few seats down - possibly a hung parliament? This is a Brexit vote not a GE.

Sadly my constituency did vote for Brexit - though the local result matched the national result very closely, so who knows whether it might be different now? It's still a very safe Tory seat, so any influence from that is unlikely to make any difference - happy to state right now that I'll be voting Lib Dem for what difference it makes, just hoping they put up a credible candidate unlike the unprincipled git last time (who I found myself unable to vote for - I guess this time I'd cross my fingers whilst crossing the box). I suppose about the only hope of an upset here is UKIP splitting the Tory vote.

On the plus side this means May will be able to secure a softer brexshit,
If she doesn't do it now the weakness of our hand in the negotiations, and the inevitable concessions to the EU will make her look weak after 2019 , that's why it was worth breaking her no early election promise.
Better that than facing a GE directly after whatever bugger's muddle she cobbles together.

No TV debates for May either.

Running scared of Jezza?

I meant also to say +1 to this election being fought over Brexit, but in reality sealing the position for domestic politics.

Brexit is a given - and anyone in government will be doing their best to achieve an overall good outcome (though the details will vary).

Any time anyone mentions Brexit between now and 8th of June, ignore it and dig deeper into the proposed domestic policies of every party: it's there that you'll find their real truth.

And, because the Conservatives will win, it's those policies that should be most closely examined - whether or not you're a Conservative voter, we all need to know what we're signing up to....

The thing about this that annoys me most is that an early GE is a complete subversion of how democracy is supposed to work (generally I mean rather than in the UK specifically).
The Conservatives won a narrow GE in 2015 on a manifesto that included a referendum on EU membership. They went on to fulfil that promise and once again Brexit votes won a very narrow majority bringing us to where we are now.
Now PM May is declaring an early GE because the opposition are 'playing games trying to block and derail the Brexit process', but isn't that the system working as it should.? The current Parliament reflects the divided nature of the current political landscape in this country and therefore it SHOULD be difficult to get the Brexit process and whatever deal she manages to cobble together through Parliament because that is the political will of the people.!
To take advantage of an opposition in disarray and a completely neutered UKIP (fear of which was the reason the whole Brexit referendum was tacked onto the last GE manifesto in the first place), to increase her majority seems to me to be going completely against the political will of the people.
The Fixed-Term legislation was brought in(by a tory government no less) SPECIFICALLY to prevent this kind of self-interested political manoeuvring which is in no-one's interests but the incumbent ruling party.

Just read through the 8 pages, some real jems. This one below sums it up for me.

So 7 weeks of political comment in the media by the commentators who got it so wrong last year?
Joy.

May will stand on a "hard Brexit" manifesto including WTO if necessary. She will add a commitment to keep employment protections as they are (ie at the "EU" level), minimum wage/living wage commitments. Election / manifesto means Tory soft-Brexit rebels are neutered

Tories to win by 100+ seats and of course extend their term in Government to 2022. As noted earlier this gives them more time post Brexit to secure new trade deals outside the EU putting them in the best possible position in 2022.

Not what I would have done but I can see the logic, May is playing a blinder.

"I'll be voting Lib Den based on their pro-EU"

Are they pro-EU? There seemed to be some back tracking and I thought I heard they want out of the EU but want to be in the EEA.

Plus their last manifesto included a qualified in/out Referendum.

I can't help but wonder if they have the same problem as Labour that being pro EU is. vote loser in the North.

As far as I can tell from her rhetoric pretty much since she stepped into No.10, what PM May wants isn't a democracy it's more akin to an elected dictatorship whereby the people still get to elect a leader but once they are in power they should have absolute authority to do whatever they hell they like and no-one gets to say boo about it.

to increase her majority seems to me to be going completely against the political will of the people.

She will only increase her majority if it is the political will of the people.

And it is. [url= https://order-order.com/2017/04/18/icm-snap-poll-gives-tories-21-point-lead/ ]She has an unprecedented 21 point lead[/url].

Mandatory reselection ballots for sitting labour mps is going to be a bloodsport worth watching

Edit unfortunately, huffpo, that rigorous news collecting institution, is pulling back on their report of reselection. Claiming unite won't push for it. Mores the pity
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_58f638a7e4b0b9e9848ec795

I still maintain that the likes of moneybags sainsbury or similar missed his chance last year to create and fund a centre left party around Progress with a hardcore of moderate labour mps resigning from the party after the 2nd leadership election

Just put on bbc to check out details of the " may" failure to run the country, so cal an election, and nothing, must try the tory party sponsored bbc news channel not cbeebies.

Just 2 months before she announces she is standing down as an mp, if she still has a job, and gets a huge wage packet from some foreign bank or multi national along with a talking tour of the world.