[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

[quote=chewkw ]As usual Corbyn's enemy is not Conservative but his own internal party members, they will over run him if he form a govt. They are more Tories than Tories with the exception that they sell the concept of helping the poor but in reality helping themselves. Now that you don't see coming but I do.

Careful chewy, you're slipping out of character here.

aracer - Member
Because it's Labour which set up the conditions which are likely to lead to Scottish independence and huge issues over an internal hard border in Ireland? I do remember that right don't I?

What internal hard border? If Labour comes into power it will be United Ireland and independent Scotland. 😛

(yes, yes I know JY, but he's almost making a point which it's possible to debate with here and occasionally I like to give him a chance to try and put a coherent defence together).

I mean it is so obvious and clear you really don't need anything else to explain ... it is as simple as. It's written all over the place clearly. 😆

cite

Wasting your time...
I assume may missed the debate as she decided to start packing early.

mikewsmith - Member
Wasting your time...
I assume may missed the debate as she decided to start packing early.

Rather pointless debate really as there is nothing new in their views ... it's like a repetitive broken record repeating themselves over and over and over again. 😆

A great summary of the Tory campaign, more of the same, as good as it gets, nothing to see here move along now...
Given how everyone says how commanding the PM is at PMQ's maybe she is just scared of the common people with their Rum and Coca Cola.

[quote=chewkw ]it's like a repetitive broken record repeating themselves over and over and over again.

Surprising May didn't turn up then - she's good at that.

mikewsmith - Member
A great summary of the Tory campaign, more of the same, as good as it gets, nothing to see here move along now...
Given how everyone says how commanding the PM is at PMQ's maybe she is just scared of the common people with their Rum and Coca Cola.

Scared of the common people? Nahh ... certainly not to play up to the TV news trolls put it this way. If the oppositions think they can do better in front of the repetitive debate so be it. They can win as much as they like and in fact they can have the entire debate to themselves. 😆

aracer - Member

chewkw » it's like a repetitive broken record repeating themselves over and over and over again.

Surprising May didn't turn up then - she's good at that.

I wanted to vote liberal democrat, after tonight I don't feel bad about my labour protest vote.

There is consistency and there is broken record repeating themselves. PM May is the former while the rest latter. 😛

One isn't meant to laugh at one's own jokes.

#StablyStrong

Conspiracy theories are starting to spin around my head on this election. Given May's arrogant approach to not attending the debates, the weak manifesto ... starting to think the Tories are deliberately throwing this election.

Even if we take the 'B' word out of the equation nobody can deny that the Tory election campaign has been rather lack luster. May just keeps saying 'you have to trust us ...' Labour are promising the world and the curious ones will no doubt be asking how they 'really' can fund it all.

The problem with the Vicar's Daughter is that she has a self-image of stability and strength. She really believes that's her character. She has sold this self-image to the party, who either bought it or cynically assumed the necessary majority of voters would buy it.

As the situation develops, her true character - inflexibility, lack of spontaneous reaction to change, uncomfortable without a script and so on, is proving a massive liability.

The situation is now so bad that Conservative sources are describing the campaign as a "total clusterf***. If we lose, we'll deserve it."

To quote MacMillan, when asked "What could possibly derail your government's programme, Prime Minister?" said...

"Events dear boy, events." 😕

I though the same (re. conspiricy theories), especially now various news outlets are reporting conservative HQ are planning on getting rid of May post election (unless she wins a landslide). very convenient brexit bullet dodging.

I think they were just complacent and arrogant

She was miles ahead and the RW press had spun him as useless so they did not put much effort into the campaign nor the manifesto and then the wheels feel of the bus and they were not able to change gear/tact/vehicle [ whichever mixed metaphor you prefer]
I also think she is another John Major in that dull, grey and not very competent and elected for who they were not rather than for who they were on any inherent talent.

Still likely to win but there will be nervous times ahead

Boris was just interviewed on Five Live. He dismissed any accusations of complacency and arrogance, then in the next sentence forgot Nichola Sturgeons name, referring to her as 'erm..... that Scottish Nats woman'

flanagaj - The Tories can't go into details as they would get drawn into details on Brexit which would be a guaranteed vote loser (not for the Brexit as a religion people, but the normal people who care about jobs, security etc).
Labour has more flexibility, particularly as cuts are now a dirtier word than taxes.

I also think she is another John Major in that dull, grey and not very competent and elected for who they were not rather than for who they were on any inherent talent.

Can't see Chairman May out on the street on a soapbox. (not unless it was very carefully staged managed)

[img] ?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=90cbe967a9ef4f236f01f4d86db03b1a[/img]

I'm not a fan of John but he's in a different league to the Maybot.

She was miles ahead and the RW press had spun him as useless so they did not put much effort into the campaign nor the manifesto and then the wheels feel of the bus and they were not able to change gear/tact/vehicle [ whichever mixed metaphor you prefer]

Or, tinfoil hat time, actually Jezza isn't doing that well, but the Tory controlled press need to big up the fear of Labour winning/crazy jezza getting in to power in order to encourage conservative voters to get out and vote, as if everyone thought it was an easy win, they wouldn't bother.

You know, like happened wit Miliband and all the "coalition with SNP" last time, even though it had already been ruled out.

Makes you think, eh?

I thought so. May's objection to the coalition of chaos is the coalition - after all you can have chaos just by voting Tory.

And yes the labour / SNP coalition stuff was a cynical ploy to play on little englander racism/xenophobia.

Agree with ninfan actually

im still certain that may will come back with a majority

so im just enjoying the tory wobbly till the next one comes along when they balls up brexit

Not sure I agree @ some media conspiracy
I think there's a pretty clear turning point in the polls when the labour manifesto was released.
It contains more police, more education, more NHS, better trains.
That's going to appeal to LOTS of voters, and he's going to pay for it with corporation tax, which is something most voters don't know much about and can't see any immediate disadvantage to.

I thought Rudd did pretty well - and was surprised to read this morning that her father died unexpectedly at the weekend. Taking the battering she got last night on top of losing a parent would certainly break me.

The "debate" was a joke though. Whilst the 6+ parties shouting at the current government undoubtedly gets the thumbs up from the media it just reduces political discourse to a new and entirely counter-productive "low" - and it's made worse by a baying, heckling audience. No matter what we think of the policies we should at least offer our elected MPs the courtesy of listening to them without hectoring - and that applies to all sides, government, the opposition - the whole lot.

Instead of a calm dispassionate analysis of the pros and cons of all the parties' manifestos we just get a shouting match. Talking to colleagues and friends I've yet to find anyone who has actually read the manifesto of the party they support and most seem quite surprised at some of the manifesto pledges when we've discussed them.

From Armando Iannuchi

So far, the only person Theresa May has debated on TV is her husband.

One thing that is a little different post debate is the comments on BBC articles. In the last while they've been the Brexit and Tory fanatics foaming at the mouth over EU and supporting dearest Theresa. After the debate those saying "how's she going to negotiate with the EU if she can't tackle Corbyn" seem to be the most popular.

Might be a different audience, but a noticeable change in the most popular viewpoint.

Or, tinfoil hat time, actually Jezza isn't doing that well, but the Tory controlled press need to big up the fear of Labour winning/crazy jezza getting in to power in order to encourage conservative voters to get out and vote, as if everyone thought it was an easy win, they wouldn't bother.

from the guardian blog, Boris said:
"If this means that people focus on the election, if it means that everybody turns out to vote, if it means that everybody realises how vital this election is then that for me is a fantastic thing ...

For me it is great that this is tightly fought. It is great that people think that this is a very hotly contested election, because it is. We are fighting for every vote, because the future of our country is at stake."

so you might be right that the tories are milking it. I think Fifeandy is correct though, I think that the labour manifesto is attractive and I think JC is appearing more statesman than activist recently which is improving his standings.

I saw somewhere that support for SNP is currently the lowest its been for a long time. If true, presumably a lot of those voters will switch to labour, so the results in Scotland could be critical.

Polls vary from 3 to 11 points lead for the Tories . huge difference .

but I think May will be gone , even if she wins .

but I think May will be gone, even if she wins.

I think she's probably already well aware she's a dead man walking. The knives are already out. And she's only herself to blame. making the campaign all about her, then totally failing to deliver on her two Strong and Stable buzzwords.

So we could end up in a situation where the (narrowly) winning party leader is immediately deposed for their sub-par performance, while the losing party leader stays on after doing far better than anyone expected.

Funny old world.....

I saw somewhere that support for SNP is currently the lowest its been for a long time. If true, presumably a lot of those voters will switch to labour, so the results in Scotland could be critical.

I think I'm one of those voters, I would typically have voted SNP, if only because they weren't the Tories. Now it feels like there's some momentum (excuse the pun) behind Labour, and if not workable policies then at least aspirations towards a better sort of politics or at least towards a better sort of politician.

If anything else, all the Corbyn/May coverage has exhausted my limited attention span so I've not really been taking in the SNP message this time round, and I'm definitely starting to suffer IndyRef2 fatigue so that takes the shine off the SNP also.

Unfortunately, depending on who you believe, Labour are still a distant third or even fourth in my constituency, so despite Northwind's persuasive post against tactical voting, I'm still inclined to vote for whoever is most likely to defeat the Tories and hope for some sort of 'progressive alliance'... 🙄

So we could end up in a situation where the (narrowly) winning party leader is immediately deposed for their sub-par performance, while the losing party leader stays on after doing far better than anyone expected.

And that would lead to another election as the new Tory Prime Minister would not have been elected (just as May wasn't). Hooray.

I think she might be gone too, but then the mess will continue. The mandate gone. Whoever becomes leader will have no chance of battling a broadly united coalition opposition with a new-found confidence.

I thought Rudd did pretty well - and was surprised to read this morning that her father died unexpectedly at the weekend.

If one of my team was grieving for her father, I wouldn't ask her to do an important piece of work I should've been doing anyway.

That is very true .

Just watched Boris on BBC Breakfast floundering or what!

If one of my team was grieving for her father, I wouldn't ask her to do an important piece of work I should've been doing anyway.

My thoughts exactly. But then it does rather reinforce the Tory stereotype of being cold-hearted, and totally devoid of empathy or compassion.

Who was it again who dubbed them the 'Nasty Party'? I can't remember, off the top of my head

So we could end up in a situation where the (narrowly) winning party leader is immediately deposed for their sub-par performance

I agree this is likely, but if it happens the tories will be finished. They'll have zero credibility on both their ability to run a stable government and choose a competent leader/PM to lead the brexit negotiations, and have absolutely no mandate (not that they did before) for doing so.

while the losing party leader stays on after doing far better than anyone expected.

Question is will the PLP now unite behind him? Whatever happens next is going to require a united front, either behind Corbyn or someone else, but the main lesson is that the policies are massively popular and shouldn't be abandoned.

Question is will the PLP now unite behind him? Whatever happens next is going to require a united front, either behind Corbyn or someone else, but the main lesson is that the policies are massively popular and shouldn't be abandoned.

Yes, whatever happens to Corbyn, he has now left a legacy: the popular manifesto you refer to is actually Labour Party policy.

Question is will the PLP now unite behind him?

I think that what this campaign is proving (with still a week to go) is how volatile and unpredictable modern politics and democracy is. It's absolutely all over the place. Who on earth would have seen some polls showing a mere 3 point lead, in this 'formality' of an election?

God knows what could happen? The Tory party has only held together post brexit vote because everything has been focussed on Labours divisions. Now that things aren't looking so cut and dried, that might not be the case for too much longer. If May is deposed (and I do think this is a very real possibility), then civil war could well erupt over the successor

There would be a beautiful irony to Brexit being put on hold while the pro and anti EU wings of the Tory party tore lumps out of each other (again!)

I can but dream, I suppose

Interestingly, Hilary Benn has been campaigning completely independently of Corbyn. He hasn't mentioned his name once in the last month on Twitter. Until Last night!

Theresa May's so-called strong and stable leadership looks pretty threadbare tonight after her refusal to debate with Jeremy Corbyn. #frit

seems to be a lot of old hands with their heads down on both side of the political divide at the moment.

[quote=13thfloormonk ]I saw somewhere that support for SNP is currently the lowest its been for a long time. If true, presumably a lot of those voters will switch to labour, so the results in Scotland could be critical.
I think I'm one of those voters, I would typically have voted SNP, if only because they weren't the Tories. Now it feels like there's some momentum (excuse the pun) behind Labour, and if not workable policies then at least aspirations towards a better sort of politics or at least towards a better sort of politician.
If anything else, all the Corbyn/May coverage has exhausted my limited attention span so I've not really been taking in the SNP message this time round, and I'm definitely starting to suffer IndyRef2 fatigue so that takes the shine off the SNP also.
Unfortunately, depending on who you believe, Labour are still a distant third or even fourth in my constituency, so despite Northwind's persuasive post against tactical voting, I'm still inclined to vote for whoever is most likely to defeat the Tories and hope for some sort of 'progressive alliance'...

Worth a look: https://www.tactical2017.com/

I'm in the same boat as you. I vote SNP cos I want a leftist government, which seems impossible as part of the UK but would be possible post-independence. I'd probably vote for the green party in independence land.

I'd love to see Corbyn in power. I like his policies and I actually like that he's a bit shit from a PR perspective, because he is a decent human being with consistency and is willing to say unpopular things - the polar opposite to a psychopath like George Osborne.

But, would that leftist government be a blip? Would we back to the conservatives in 5 or 10 years?

I'm in a seat with a huge SNP majority with labour far down the ranks so no point in voting for them.

But, would that leftist government be a blip? Would we back to the conservatives in 5 or 10 years?

History would suggest so. The swinging back and forth clearly doesn't help the long term plans for a country.

Who on earth would have seen some polls showing a mere 3 point lead, in this 'formality' of an election?

I agree with Ninfan on this.

The only poll showing that lead is the YouGov one. They did a very elaborate poll asking lots of people (50k IIRC) and doing all sorts of complicated mathematics on the results to make it truly reflective.

Which is another way of saying they had lots of scope to massage the numbers any way they want.

If I'm right, the actual election result will be nothing like as close.

I'm in a seat with a huge SNP majority with labour far down the ranks so no point in voting for them.

Depends on your view on tactical voting.

I'm in John Redwoods seat, odious shitbag that he is (apparently he was even visibly yawning and disinterested at a townhall meeting the other day).

I really want to vote Labour and I probably will, but a lot of people are thinking of voting Lib-Dem, not because of policy but because it might just slim his majority sufficiently (and be viewed as less of a lost cause than the leftist Labour vote) that it get's rid of him for a different Tory.

So even in a safe seat voting for the opposition keeps the incumbent honest.

I'm voting Labour so even though my vote is 'wasted' it'll boost Corbyn's overall nationwide figure even if that is a meaningless statistical footnote.

Not sure how much use the polls are - BBC article reporting multiple results in most recent ones showing Tories with anywhere between 3 and 11% lead.

Seems little point in looking at them given the potential election outcomes differ wildly on those results from likely no overall majority to significant conservative majority.