[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

Cos Corbyn has policies that they like.

I know, democracy is ridiculous, isn't it?

Tory stronghold for me too, a mere 61% of the vote with lib dems on 15%. Ouch. I struggle to see SNP, Labour and Lib Dems uniting enough behind shared causes to mitigate the damage that is coming or get enough votes for a hung parliament. Labour are still working out which one is the elbow...

ITYM people in general don't like the idea of nationalists in government.

Except British nationalists, they're fine.

Same as bodgy - East Cambridgeshire here, all farmers have Conservative signs in their fields [apart from a few ukip ones), no one votes labour, lib dems do ok

This should have been the offer from the get go, referendum then GE.

Let's see what the scum bags will offer us. They have bribed business with tax breaks, where are ours?

If the BBC ever needs to recruit another political correspondent they need look no further than this STW thread. Love it - this even beats the referendum thread - keep it going guys. 🙂

How depressing...The June election result will remind me yet again of the mindset of this country.

At least between elections i can kid myself there is a more empathetic mentality out there than the reality that the election results deliver. 😀

Labour has had a surge in membership. I presume that means the 6th formers are back in school....

[img] [/img]

The question is how many "Zach Goldsmith" constituencies exist? There are a lot of very unhappy Tory voters in remain areas. They are not comfortable with current proceedings around Brexit. I think Mrs May has rolled the dice due to a lack of confidence on her own backbench support come the Brexit sign off vote. Might be a bit early but I think the Tories could end up a few seats down - possibly a hung parliament? This is a Brexit vote not a GE.

Really is all up in the air. LD might not win any more seats but the anti-Brexit position might split the Tory vote. Or the Labour one for that matter. And how many of the UKIP voters who split the Labour vote last time will return?

*Except British nationalists, they're fine."

The SNP *is* British.

If you vote Tory and are unhappy who would you vote for? Unhappy Tory voters will still vote Tory.

This is a Brexit vote not a GE.

no it's not both main parties are now pro brexit, and lib dems will all over May like glen quagmire given half a sniff of a coalition and Europe can **** off.

Didn't vote in Zacs by election and yes I know he was independant.

I think much has changed and a lot of Tory voters see brexit as a negative impact on their well being.

I've never been one for tactical voting, but if ever there was a time...

0 to 8 pages whilst I've been doing actual work, impressive.

But nonetheless, the likelihood is currently low, even though Labour do need the SNP (and would therefore have to offer a 2nd referendum, and by doing so shoot themselves in the foot).

Bang on, this is very much the point - the only people that a Independence works for mathematically is the Tories.

Klunk what comes out of an MPs gob is rarely an indication of anything other than self preservation - I would suggest most labour mps and many Tories are remainers

Unfortunately, I live in a Tory stronghold. I'll be voting Lib Den based on their pro-EU stance and excellent campaigning on local issues. Labour are essentially non-existent in my part of the world.

We will be Tory here unless there's an outbreak of flu. UKIP took a reasonable second followed by a decent showing from the Green party at the last election; it'll be interesting to see how that changes. We'll be voting tactically, but I'm not sure who we'll tactically vote for at the mo...

[quote=oldmanmtb ]The question is how many "Zach Goldsmith" constituencies exist? There are a lot of very unhappy Tory voters in remain areas. They are not comfortable with current proceedings around Brexit. I think Mrs May has rolled the dice due to a lack of confidence on her own backbench support come the Brexit sign off vote. Might be a bit early but I think the Tories could end up a few seats down - possibly a hung parliament? This is a Brexit vote not a GE.

Sadly my constituency did vote for Brexit - though the local result matched the national result very closely, so who knows whether it might be different now? It's still a very safe Tory seat, so any influence from that is unlikely to make any difference - happy to state right now that I'll be voting Lib Dem for what difference it makes, just hoping they put up a credible candidate unlike the unprincipled git last time (who I found myself unable to vote for - I guess this time I'd cross my fingers whilst crossing the box). I suppose about the only hope of an upset here is UKIP splitting the Tory vote.

On the plus side this means May will be able to secure a softer brexshit,
If she doesn't do it now the weakness of our hand in the negotiations, and the inevitable concessions to the EU will make her look weak after 2019 , that's why it was worth breaking her no early election promise.
Better that than facing a GE directly after whatever bugger's muddle she cobbles together.

No TV debates for May either.

Running scared of Jezza?

I meant also to say +1 to this election being fought over Brexit, but in reality sealing the position for domestic politics.

Brexit is a given - and anyone in government will be doing their best to achieve an overall good outcome (though the details will vary).

Any time anyone mentions Brexit between now and 8th of June, ignore it and dig deeper into the proposed domestic policies of every party: it's there that you'll find their real truth.

And, because the Conservatives will win, it's those policies that should be most closely examined - whether or not you're a Conservative voter, we all need to know what we're signing up to....

The thing about this that annoys me most is that an early GE is a complete subversion of how democracy is supposed to work (generally I mean rather than in the UK specifically).
The Conservatives won a narrow GE in 2015 on a manifesto that included a referendum on EU membership. They went on to fulfil that promise and once again Brexit votes won a very narrow majority bringing us to where we are now.
Now PM May is declaring an early GE because the opposition are 'playing games trying to block and derail the Brexit process', but isn't that the system working as it should.? The current Parliament reflects the divided nature of the current political landscape in this country and therefore it SHOULD be difficult to get the Brexit process and whatever deal she manages to cobble together through Parliament because that is the political will of the people.!
To take advantage of an opposition in disarray and a completely neutered UKIP (fear of which was the reason the whole Brexit referendum was tacked onto the last GE manifesto in the first place), to increase her majority seems to me to be going completely against the political will of the people.
The Fixed-Term legislation was brought in(by a tory government no less) SPECIFICALLY to prevent this kind of self-interested political manoeuvring which is in no-one's interests but the incumbent ruling party.

Just read through the 8 pages, some real jems. This one below sums it up for me.

So 7 weeks of political comment in the media by the commentators who got it so wrong last year?
Joy.

May will stand on a "hard Brexit" manifesto including WTO if necessary. She will add a commitment to keep employment protections as they are (ie at the "EU" level), minimum wage/living wage commitments. Election / manifesto means Tory soft-Brexit rebels are neutered

Tories to win by 100+ seats and of course extend their term in Government to 2022. As noted earlier this gives them more time post Brexit to secure new trade deals outside the EU putting them in the best possible position in 2022.

Not what I would have done but I can see the logic, May is playing a blinder.

"I'll be voting Lib Den based on their pro-EU"

Are they pro-EU? There seemed to be some back tracking and I thought I heard they want out of the EU but want to be in the EEA.

Plus their last manifesto included a qualified in/out Referendum.

I can't help but wonder if they have the same problem as Labour that being pro EU is. vote loser in the North.

As far as I can tell from her rhetoric pretty much since she stepped into No.10, what PM May wants isn't a democracy it's more akin to an elected dictatorship whereby the people still get to elect a leader but once they are in power they should have absolute authority to do whatever they hell they like and no-one gets to say boo about it.

to increase her majority seems to me to be going completely against the political will of the people.

She will only increase her majority if it is the political will of the people.

And it is. [url= https://order-order.com/2017/04/18/icm-snap-poll-gives-tories-21-point-lead/ ]She has an unprecedented 21 point lead[/url].

Mandatory reselection ballots for sitting labour mps is going to be a bloodsport worth watching

Edit unfortunately, huffpo, that rigorous news collecting institution, is pulling back on their report of reselection. Claiming unite won't push for it. Mores the pity
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_58f638a7e4b0b9e9848ec795

I still maintain that the likes of moneybags sainsbury or similar missed his chance last year to create and fund a centre left party around Progress with a hardcore of moderate labour mps resigning from the party after the 2nd leadership election

Just put on bbc to check out details of the " may" failure to run the country, so cal an election, and nothing, must try the tory party sponsored bbc news channel not cbeebies.

Just 2 months before she announces she is standing down as an mp, if she still has a job, and gets a huge wage packet from some foreign bank or multi national along with a talking tour of the world.

.

May will stand on a "hard Brexit" manifesto

Yeah but we know she a liar, what it says in her manifesto will be as meaningless as her promise to not hold an early GE

being pro EU is [a] vote loser in the North.

Is it though? For the majority of voters the referendum was about immigration, let's face it, not complex international finance. Now that [s]people[/s] sheeple are starting to realise the effects of brexit (not to mention the staggering breadth of lies that they swallowed) I'm not sure that there is so much antagonism to the EU.

She will only increase her majority if it is the political will of the people.

And it is. She has an unprecedented 21 point lead.

Well that's not really true is it. The Conservative lead in the polls is less of their lead and more of the opposition being viewed us unelectable by a majority of the electorate. As I said before, the whole point of the fixed-term bill was to prevent incumbent parties from taking advantage of the system in this manner.
The rhetoric from PM May and her party post-brexit was that the referendum result is 'the will of the people and must be respected', well the will of the people was a parliament in it's current balance until 2020 and because she thinks it's current makeup is going to make her job harder she has decided to change the rules in order to tip things in her favour.
You can be absolutely certain that post GE, if she is re-elected then any opposition to anything she negotiates or doesn't negotiate with the EU will be shouted down as her having been given an 'absolute mandate'.
I find it infuriating that she seems to think it's ok for her to change the rules to suit herself but all the cry's of the 'remoaners' of the referendum being advisory, and it's not being legally binding, were undemocratic and an insult to the people of the UK and their faith in their elected officials to carry out their wishes.

(edited to correct the autocorrect!)

the whole point of the fixed-term bill was to prevent incumbent parties from taking advantage of the system in this manner

Spot on. They are having to vote to change the law to allow this illegal election. Cynical Tory post truth tactic.

[quote=H1ghland3r ]As I said before, the whole point of the fixed-term bill was to prevent incumbent parties from taking advantage of the system in this manner.

So Labour vote against a GE when it comes before parliament...

Interesting tangent, was trying to fact check a meme claiming that there are now 20 Tory MPs under investigation for electoral finance offences.

Didn't find anything solid but did find a month old article in the Guardian claiming 'up to'* 20 MPs under investigation, but also speculating that May might call a snap GE to draw a line under the expenses issue.

Wonder if anything juicy has come to light during the CPS investigation 8)

*so... any number between 0 and 20?

Latest odds - tory majority 1/6; no overall majority 5/1; labour majority 16/1.

H1ghland3r - good points and well made.
Tom Watson to replace jezza? Kier Starmer would be my pick.

So.. who are we supposed to vote for?
Tories.. Just NO
Labour.. But..But Corbyn
Lib Dem.. At least Farron has some kind of principles
Green.. I usually vote Green but Would do anything to get my Tory candidate out

None of the above.
The current political and Brexit position makes the UK feel a sinking ship with no lifeboats...

Lib Dem.. At least Farron has some kind of principles

Oh please they get into bed with the tories for a string of beads.

Return of the Farage

So Labour vote against a GE when it comes before parliament...

Ahh would that it were that simple.. My whole point about her taking advantage of the current political climate to her advantage covers this argument.
PM May isn't stupid, she is well aware that Corbyn's current fragile position would be made completely untenable by his voting against a GE, which would in essence be an admission by him that he doesn't think he can win it, at which point he would no-doubt be forced to step down which would throw the opposition into even more disarray and effectively achieve the same thing as PM May is hoping the result of a snap GE would. A stronger Conservative government with a weakened opposition.

She has manoeuvred the weakened opposition into what is likely to be a win-win situation for her unless there is a mass turnaround of opinion amongst the electorate that results in the Conservatives losing this GE.

Empty chair time https://www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/election-2017-no-tv-debates-this-time

What's the view of our Northern Irish contingent? It's always refreshing to hear another perspective

Surely people have had enough of voting and there could be a low turnout ?

who would this favor ?

PM May isn't stupid, she is well aware that Corbyn's current fragile position

Her position is also rather fragile.

She can't rely on her backbenches to support her Brexit plans at the moment so she doesn't have a safe working majority to see Brexit through.

Assuming she campaigns on the basis of a particular Brexit approach, this also gets rid of arguments that she has no mandate for whatever her approach is.

Just read through the 8 pages, some real jems. This one below sums it up for me.

So 7 weeks of political comment in the media by the commentators who got it so wrong last year?
Joy.

May will stand on a "hard Brexit" manifesto including WTO if necessary. She will add a commitment to keep employment protections as they are (ie at the "EU" level), minimum wage/living wage commitments. Election / manifesto means Tory soft-Brexit rebels are neutered

Tories to win by 100+ seats and of course extend their term in Government to 2022. As noted earlier this gives them more time post Brexit to secure new trade deals outside the EU putting them in the best possible position in 2022.

Not what I would have done but I can see the logic, May is playing a blinder.

I was referring to SKY and BBC pundits. The folk on here I just walk away from when it gets unpleasant.

I don't yet see it as clear cut as a Brexit vs Remain argument. It could potentially be between a hard, 'red white and blue', empty promises Brexit delivered by a bunch of liars vs a yes, we heard the will of the people and will deliver Brexit but one that is much more aligned to what people thought they were voting for, one with freedom of movement and cross border trade and such like; maybe even one that Parliament or even the people will have a say on in the coming two years.

Question is who could lead that counter; in the past I'd have thought it's the clear territory for the centre left but is there time for the moderate labour MPs and Lib Dems and a few others (Greens for example) to campaign on a coalition ticket to prevent May from getting the 'mandate' she craves.

If Parliament refused to permit the election then surely May would have to resign, given she's now admitted she can't lead the country through Brexit without a better mandate.

Then what happens? We are locked in to this bunch of filth for the next three years, probably with Boris at the helm.

Either way, it's a disaster for those of us that still believe that our health service, looking after the poor and vulnerable, the environment, proper provision for crime prevention and enforcement, equality of education matter.

This will all end with the Tories making the State so small that they will have to dissolve themselves and Theresa May ruling on her own out of a broom cupboard cackling like the ****in Wizard of Oz.

Empty chair time

Of course May wouldn't want to be publicly questioned.

She'd be nailed on Davis and her comments about not reducing immigration after Brexit, a major plank of of brexshit in the eyes of many.

Plus she'd be outed for her lies about not calling an early referendum, showing that we can't trust any promise she makes, eg protecting workers rights, grammar schools that actually help the poor etc etc

I remember her time as Home Secretary. She was utterly incompetent and well out of her depth. I don't for a second think she is the master strategist she thinks she is. This early election stinks of Tory infighting. The difference between the Tories and Labour are that the Tories do theirs in private though. I don't think the result will be as clear cut as the pundits are predicting (I think there'll be a hung parliament rather than a Labour win though).

Leave could never win; Trump could never be elected. If anyone sees this as clearcut nowadays, there's a long time between now and Jun 8th.

If Parliament refused to permit the election then surely May would have to resign, given she's now admitted she can't lead the country through Brexit without a better mandate.

Not really, option 2 is a vote of no confidence in her government which could be spun as needing a better mandate before condemning us to the WTO wilderness. Still results in a general election. She can't really lose.

H1ghland3r I don't old Corbs stepping down would weaken Labour further, there would be further instability for 6 months and then they actually have a chance of getting it together without him to take advantage of 2020 election and the Brexit apocalypse.In the GE scenario TM is sorted for the next five years regardless and has time to regroup after the divorce.

She'd be nailed on Davis and her comments about not reducing immigration after Brexit, a major plank of of brexshit in the eyes of many.

I think this is what makes the election interesting - Brexit is now known to have been based on numerous lies - the £350m, immigration going down, staying in the single market and so on. It just needs some strong voices to dig into it. The problem is that there are none.

Spot on. They are having to vote to change the law to allow this illegal election. Cynical Tory post truth tactic.

No they are not. Its always been the case you can call an election with a 2/3rds majority or Govt losing a vote of no-confidence

Debates are an absolute waste of time. I came to this conclusion watching them in the US in the late 80's / early 90's

interesting times

Essentially all this is an admission that Brexit will harm them so she thinks she has a better chance now than after her wonderful negotiation

I suspect that much is true. How the result ends up is hard to predict but labour will not be winning it that much she can be sure of and i cannot see the lib dems helping the tories do Brexit nor can I see them siding with corbyn either.

If i was the opposition I would not support this personally as she has admitted she fancies her chances more now than post Brexit and I agree with her.Lib dems will likely get more MPs and support it as will SNP and see ot as a referendum vote by "manifesto pledging" it so I think it will likely pass.

I imagine Corbyn is as stupid as accept as well and then get a shooing.

Debates are an absolute waste of time.

Those in front will always duck them so we need to legislate for this - personally I think a debate is a better choice than no debate but we need to remove choice from the leaders who will base it on a principle of self interest rather than democracy

curto80 - given that Corbyn has effectively said 'bring it on' I can't see any May failing to get the 2/3 she needs.
Labour will be in the wilderness for 10 years; they have been there before but didn't use their time to craft policies with long-term sustainability and broad appeal.

He's right (sort of)

The 2/3 clause was part of the fixed term act that came in as part of the alliance government, so she isn't changing the law to allow for the 2/3 vote.

She is still lying though, having ruled out an election sooner than 2020. She's also lying about why, with this mandate BS. She's gambling on everyone else being in such disarray that she gets 5 more years so she doesn't have to fight a GE a year after the Brexishamble pigeons have come home to roost.

don't old Corbs stepping down would weaken Labour further, there would be further instability for 6 months and then they actually have a chance of getting it together without him to take advantage of 2020 election and the Brexit apocalypse.In the GE scenario TM is sorted for the next five years regardless and has time to regroup after the divorce.

Thats a fair point, assuming that him stepping down and leaving a power vacuum were to actually get the Labour Party to decide what it stands for and find someone within their ranks to put that message forward effectively while still having enough political weight to hold a rampaging brexiting May to account in parliament.
I'm not confident that Labour wouldn't completely disintegrate if Corbyn stepped down as the divide between the members and the Parliamentary party seems to be possibly too massive to bridge. I don't think it's completely unrealistic to see the Labour Party splitting in two if Corbyn steps down or is forced out, at least if he is removed after losing a GE then the party is likely to rally around the idea that he wasn't the right man to get them elected.

Remind me..Do any of these people actually have a day job running our country?

I always said David Cameron wasn't that bad...now look who we have, and will continue to have for the next 5 years at least. The odious woman is thatcher reincarnated...and pretty much put into power by the same people who the tories hacve shat on for years.

I don't yet see it as clear cut as a Brexit vs Remain argument. It could potentially be between a hard, 'red white and blue', empty promises Brexit delivered by a bunch of liars vs a yes, we heard the will of the people and will deliver Brexit but one that is much more aligned to what people thought they were voting for, one with freedom of movement and cross border trade and such like; maybe even one that Parliament or even the people will have a say on in the coming two years.

If you recall, some of us were saying months ago that those opposed to Brexit needed to accept that they had lost, and move on from trying to battle against Brexit happening to discussing and debating what type of Brexit it should be

I reckon it's probably too late now....

Essentially all this is an admission that Brexit will harm them so she thinks she has a better chance now than after her wonderful negotiation

Yep, calling a general election is most definitely an indication of fear and weakness.

I like my election prediction me.

My prediction as follows:

Labour with Jeremy Corbyn remains as the leader.

Lib Dem shall have lesser seats than previously though.

SNP gets the message with reduce majority.

Green - same no change coz they are still partying in Brighton.

UKIP for the first time will see seats in Parliament.

Tories will gain ...

My crystal ball is the truth! 😆

Yep, calling a general election is most definitely an indication of fear and weakness.

Yawn.....

That's not what was said is it? What was said was that it's better to call an election now before it goes properly tits up.

If it was going to be the glorious success that you'd have us believe, why not wait, and then get elected on the back of that triumph and carried into the Palace on an ermine trimmed sedan chair.

Oh yes..... the mandate thing.

Yep, calling a general election is most definitely an indication of fear and weakness.

Agreed, she's on a horse with no reins and stirrups blunter than her wit.

.

My crystal ball is the truth!

Is that the one that predicted trump wouldn't hire any Goldman Sachs or drop big bombs? 😆

kimbers - Member

My crystal ball is the truth!

Is that the one that predicted trump wouldn't hire any Goldman Sachs or drop big bombs?

any bets on an SNP clean sweep in Scotland? Up- in the polls.

I thought politics was supposed to be about making good policies? I can't see this decision as anything but bad for her long term.

tjagain - Member
any bets on an SNP clean sweep in Scotland? Up- in the polls.

Crystal ball says no clean sweep but not sure about the bookies though.

Less majority coz they peaked at the wrong moment. 😆

The thing about this that annoys me most is that an early GE is a complete subversion of how democracy is supposed to work

The opposite.

She hasn't got a workable majority so she's forced to go to the country to try to get one. This is the system working exactly as intended.

If she had a Blair stylee 179 majority she wouldn't need to go to the country.

any bets on an SNP clean sweep in Scotland? Up- in the polls.

With the council elections coming first in May we might get an indication.

I thought politics was supposed to be about making good policies?

Politics stopped being about policies and people a long time ago. It's mostly about winning power at any cost and sustaining the media circus that depends on it.

dazh - Member

I thought politics was supposed to be about making good policies

Politics stopped being about policies and people a long time ago. It's mostly about winning power at any cost and sustaining the media circus that depends on it.

Coz the news media are giant trolls that continue to troll the people

HOW TO VOTE TO STOP THE TORIES...........

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_yf4RL133fBKscvSbID4eRKwztzY9KSI_2BMaI1bU8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0

Yes of course. All predicted by the crystal ball but just not revealed totally to the oppositions. Give them some surprises for fun

I doubt any of the "oppositions" were surprised when he went back on his word. Those poor sods who believed his lies on the other hand might be a tad upset when they found out what draining the swamp actually meant.

dissonance - Member

Yes of course. All predicted by the crystal ball but just not revealed totally to the oppositions. Give them some surprises for fun

I doubt any of the "oppositions" were surprised when he went back on his word. Those poor sods who believed his lies on the other hand might be a tad upset when they found out what draining the swamp actually meant.

any bets on an SNP clean sweep in Scotland? Up- in the polls.

I'll take the other side of that, no clean sweep. Also fwiw I predict reduced SNP share of the popular vote

Hope the media choose to go after TM because of the debate thing.

hmmmmm

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-cps-considering-charges-against-over-30-people-including-tory-mps-over-expenses