[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

zokes - the costs dwarf most other things

500 000 people in residential care costing at least 30 000 pa and often 60 000 and thats for care that frankly is poor in general

1.2 million receiving home care. Average cost probably ( I am guessingish) averaging out at £20 000+ pa per person - and that care is frankly grossly inadequate

My NHS unit that provides good care for people with multiple complex needs ie cannot be managed in care homes costs probably at least £100 000 pa per person

Numbers of people requiring care is due to increase massively

Where is the money to come from to pay for good care for all?

Where is the money to come from to pay for good care for all?

This was presumably a question posed when both universal healthcare and universal education were mooted. Needless to say, the money was found and those services came into existence.

There are a hundred and one ways of finding the money that include cracking down on tax evasion, increase in taxes and / or NI, not spending money on silly things like Trident, and not pissing tens of billions up the wall over Brexit and resultant economic impacts. I'm quite happy for inheritance tax to be ramped up in some way to pay for this also, but I think taking the family home is just a step too far for an awful lot of people.

Where is the money to come from to pay for good care for all?

Im so far assuming the poor will receive inadequate care and everyone else will go private. I'm not seeing this as a means to ensure quality care for all.

What safeguards can you put in place to protect those that need care but don't seek it? Are there estimates for any increased economic losses accrued due to people dropping out of work to care for family members? (Genuine questions)

Are there estimates for any increased economic losses accrued due to people dropping out of work to care for family members? (Genuine questions)

Remember how Northwind pointed out that Student loans were probably going to be mostly written off hence the government picks up the tab.

The police intent may be good but I really don't think the implimentation will be anything close.

What should be of concearn to May is the fact this is still running today, it's overshadowed her Manifesto on everything else
[img] [/img]
Politically it's a significant mistake.

Remember how Northwind pointed out that Student loans were probably going to be mostly written off hence the government picks up the tab.

That's because they're designed as a graduate tax in all but name.

That's because they're designed as a graduate tax in all but name.

Where as this is an inheritance tax based on the value of an asset 10-20 years in the future.

A quick skim of the literature suggests (admittedly in Auckland, but I can't imagine the UK is dissimilar) that the median survival on admission to long-term care is 2y

Yebbut part of the point of the changes is that the charges start on home care which presumably is usually further ahead of death.

That's because they're designed as a graduate tax in all but name

Its not a tax its a loan. It may have similarities to a tax [ but my auntie is very similar to my uncle] but when i pay the loan off i stop paying the "graduate tax" - what tax operates like this ?

Its not a tax its a loan. It may have similarities to a tax [ but my auntie is very similar to my uncle] but when i pay the loan off i stop paying the "graduate tax" - what tax operates like this ?

also contrasting with the Labour policy of scrapping tuition fee's today
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-39994886
Which could help a lot of people longer term, especially if things like the cash set aside for repaying fee's was used for house deposits or increased pension contributions. Being able to divert a little more cash into a pension in your 20's would seriously help a lot of people in their 80's

Its not a tax its a loan. It may have similarities to a tax [ but my auntie is very similar to my uncle] but when i pay the loan off i stop paying the "graduate tax" - what tax operates like this ?

What MWS said - it's designed so the overwhelming majority never pay it off.

I'd call that a tax for some people.

I accept they designed it to be as much like a graduate tax as possible and in may respects it is very similar in operation but it is still not one as its a loan and you can be told how much to repay to never have to pay "tax" ever again.

You can call it a graduate tax if you like and I can call my my aunt my uncle but neither of these are accurate descriptions.
Not doing this again its just not a graduate tax.

Dementia tax u-turn!

This is un bee lieevable!

[img] [/img]

Dementia tax u-turn!

Strong and stable 😆

[img] [/img]

thatcher would be turning in her grave.

[quote=molgrips ]Dementia tax u-turn!
This is un bee lieevable!

"A promise to consult" apparently

And then ignore what anyone says and do whatever she wants

Dementia tax u-turn!

What she has said, is that no one will lose their family home and that the conservatives will make sure savings of less than 100k get passed on.

What she probably means is that you won't lose the family home whilst one parent is still alive.

I love how that she is using "fake news" at every possible moment, as though she has decided to take a leaf from Donald Trumps playbook.

May says nothing has changed. She says she has offered a sustainable solution to the problem of social care.

😆

She's trying to be Vladislav Serkov now , war is peace freedom is slavery ignorance is strength etc etc

Strong and stable.....

Do political campains experience a kind of momentum (with a small M)? How likely is it that the Tories can reverse Labour's poll increase?

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-35-18-19-/

Only 9 points now.

Buowhahahah.

Do political campains experience a kind of momentum (with a small M)? How likely is it that the Tories can reverse Labour's poll increase?

What can the conservatives say now, that hasn't already been said? He's taken so much abuse through the campaign, that I think people have been numbed to it (the same as what happened with Trump). It's the conservatives that are going to get hit with scandals now, hopefully Dianne Abbot et al now STFU and don't let themselves get cornered on TV.

I know it's not particularly likely still and even 9 points is a lot, but I would just love to experience a political bombshell of that magnitude if he won!

What can the conservatives say now, that hasn't already been said?

I saw a political add on my Facebook sidebar that said (not in so many words) Corbyn was going to raise taxes for everyday families. That's US levels of political advertising disingenuousness, that is.

How likely is it that the Tories can reverse Labour's poll increase?

Still predict they'll win, but may find the majority isn't any bigger than they already have, which will be something of a wasted exercise.

It would be ****ing epic wouldn't it.

Especially if the Russians helped him get in.

Oh how I would bathe in the tears of Tories.

[quote=Junkyard ]you are aracer and i decline to have this conversation

😆

But then you did anyway 😉

It may not be a graduate tax, but as pointed out, it's very much like one for all but those who earn the most - just as your auntie is much like your uncle. It's certainly not a normal debt - the banks don't treat it like one when assessing for mortgages etc. If you are below the repayment threshold then it's pretty much indistinguishable from a tax (sure there are things you can do to make it not like one, but most people don't do those things).

Especially if the Russians helped him get in.

The Russians would be favouring May I would think. They want leaders who are going to **** their own country up so they can take more opportunities more easily.

Still predict they'll win, but may find the majority isn't any bigger than they already have, which will be something of a wasted exercise.

not to mention £170 wasted

the tories just love to spend, spend spend, now wonder theyve doubled the national debt

The Russians would be favouring May I would think. They want leaders who are going to **** their own country up so they can take more opportunities more easily.

I reckon they'd like to see Trident scrapped. 😀

The horse has bolted from the strong and stable.

If only the media would just go hard on May for this U- Turn (for sport) it would be bloody excellent!

whats the estimate >1bn Russian money laundered through british banks?

as long as that stays the same I dont think the russians will mind too much

they were quite blatant in their support for Brexit on RT, farage galloway and brexiter tories like Peter Bone appearing regularly

I think that its achieved its aim brilliantly for them, Johnsosns push for more sanctions ignored by other EU countries and the fallout from brexit (this election included) have hobbled us economically and politically for the next few years

(its why the Tories think everyone is desperate for Strong & Stable leadership after Cameron threw us all to the dogs)

Playing with the yougov swingometer, it really isn't far off a hung parliament now!

According to Matthew d'Ancona in today's Guardian, a lot of Tory MP's, and I suspect a lot of tribal tory voters regard the following manifesto statement....

[i]We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We abhor social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality. We see rigid dogma and ideology not just as needless but dangerous.[/i]

as nothing short of heresy. Rejecting as it does the words cast in stone from... you know... HER.

The party is holding it together for the time being, what, with an election in weeks. But if she is re-elected, and actually tries to follow through on any of that, then the Tory's could pretty soon be looking about as united in a common cause as those sat on the benches opposite have done for the last 12 months.

A graduate tax is an interesting comparison - particularly given that those who benefit most from university are predominantly from reasonably well to do backgrounds who have been afforded the opportunities to get them there - there is a strong argument that using low paid workers taxes to pay for middle class kids to go to university is unfair. Personally I would be all for an extra -x- pence on income tax rates for graduates rather than a complicated loan system.

Similarily, TJ has accurately laid out the dilemma of it being unfair both ways, poor people subsidising middle class inheritances, versus people who have scrimped and saved having to pay while their spendthrift neighbour gets it free.

There's no easy solution... well, unless we legalise the Swiss option, and pensioners start doing what's best for both their family and society in general.

The party is holding it together for the time being, what, with an election in weeks. But if she is re-elected, and actually tries to follow through on any of that,

she wont follow through on a bit of it, immighration cuts, dementia tax, itll join the 'workers on boards' gimmick as a nice idea that shed never have got her MPs to vote thru in any meannigful way

as nothing short of heresy. Rejecting as it does the words cast in stone from... you know... HER.

I think that's nonsense - as portillo rightly pointed out on this week, Thatcher would never have countenanced some of the more recent privatisations

Ninfan - you are not allowed to agree with me - have you read the rules? 😉

The horse has bolted from the strong and stable.

So first they piss off their core support by threatening to take their kids inheritance away from them, then in classic style they do a massive u-turn even though the manifesto is printed and two senior ministers were on the prime political news telly show only 24 hours ago defending it, and have now completely destroyed the central slogan which they've been drilling into everyone's heads for the past month. Strong and stable? Dithering and incompetent more like. I can only imagine the scene in tory HQ right now 😀

A graduate tax is an interesting comparison - particularly given that those who benefit most from university are predominantly from reasonably well to do backgrounds who have been afforded the opportunities to get them there - there is a strong argument that using low paid workers taxes to pay for middle class kids to go to university is unfair. Personally I would be all for an extra -x- pence on income tax rates for graduates rather than a complicated loan system.

Similarily, TJ has accurately laid out the dilemma of it being unfair both ways, poor people subsidising middle class inheritances, versus people who have scrimped and saved having to pay while their spendthrift neighbour gets it free.

Ninfan - you're giving far too much thought to other peoples opinions - for a politics thread.

Did someone hit you over the head with a cricket bat? 😀

This threads making for interesting/informative reading, unlike the EU thread. Keep it up guys.

The impending diabetes / obesity epidemic is likely to prove useful. People probably won't even make it to retirement.. Never mind dementia to look forward to

I can only imagine the scene in tory HQ right now

Boris will be hoovering up disgruntled back benchers like a deranged Labrador, ready for the election after this one. The pug in the middle is Theresa May right now, notice that quick glimpse of despair as the pug realises how quickly the lab has gobbled his food down and what is coming next - that moment was Theresa Mays interview today.

[img] [/img]

The impending diabetes / obesity epidemic is likely to prove useful. People probably won't even make it to retirement.. Never mind dementia to look forward to

I've already pointed out that that problem is solved post Brexit - when we have to reintroduce ration books

Here we go....

[b]U-TURN AHOOOOOOOOY!!!!!![/b]

Who'd have thunk it eh?

If Paul Dacre told her to paint herself purple and run naked down the Mall, she would.

I think ninfan has a point - albeit possibly not the one he thought he had.

The Tory policies smack of a government scared witless of the impending Brexit debacle, and trying to jettison any commitments they can to free up wiggle room for the impending economic slowdown.
Remember Fallon at the weekend saying that they didn't quite know just how bad the impact of low immigration would be in the economy (read jobs, wages)? That's the gun barrel they're staring down.

They probably aren't even that worried if Corbyn wins. He's committed to Brexit and whomever is in power at the point of Brexit is probably going to make themselves unelectable for a generation.

So are they going to print a new version of the manifesto?

Maybot is proving as shambolic at this as she was as Home Sec

shes will still win tho! 😯

I would expect the diabetes rise to lead to more folk needing care not less - as the complications of diabetes lead to disability before death

I can't quite tell if Ninfan is being serious or not.

I guess though that post-Brexit, given this country hasn't been able to feed itself since the 19th Century, then the reliability of our food supply comes down to the competence of David Davis. So Ninfan may well be right.

If only the media would just go hard on May for this U- Turn

BTW has anyone given any clarification regarded jointly-owned houses? If partner A requires care and then dies, what happens to partner B who is still living in the house? Evicted to pay off the debt, or is the debt carried over indefinitely?

If only the media would just go hard on May for this U- Turn

i saw the front page of the daily mail on friday i think. even that was muted in its criticism of the policy.

tomorrow will be presenting the u-turn as a glorious success.

thecaptain - Member

BTW has anyone given any clarification regarded jointly-owned houses? If partner A requires care and then dies, what happens to partner B who is still living in the house? Evicted to pay off the debt, or is the debt carried over indefinitely?

There would be a charge on the property so when it is sold or person B dies the government gets their slice. No sale could be forced tho

Some craic over the Sturgeon vs Nurse incident in last night's Scottish TV debate

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/this-nurse-told-nicola-sturgeon-about-having-to-feed-her?utm_term=.okjpwp0ry1#.tjV8K8gYbZ

A nurse who claimed last night she has to use foodbanks because her salary isn't enough to survive on.

So far the internet detectives have revealed

- She claimed to be a Grade 6 Nurse, yet also claimed she earned significantly less than the salary for that particular grade

- Her daughter goes to an £11k a year private school

- She spent new year in New York and claims her friends paid for it

- She lives in Stockbridge (average house price £380k)

- Drives a nice convertible Mini

- Eats out in fancy restaurants a lot

- She was on Question Time but didn't get to ask her question so the BBC invited her back to the Scottish debate so she could ask...

Nothing dodgy there. Nope. All above board and honest...

Maybot is proving as shambolic at this as she was as Home Sec

shes will still win tho!

I'm not so sure. She's completely pissed off her core support, completely destroyed her 'strong and stable' pitch, made her ministers look like idiots on the telly, and most importantly of all, taken the public for fools. I can't see her recovering from this. I wouldn't be surprised if we now see Boris et al starting to distance themselves from her, and George Osborne is sure to put the boot in.

And meanwhile Corbyn looks more authoritative every day. I know he doesn't do personal abuse, but if I were him I'd have the labour party graphic designers at work pasting her head onto a turnip and plastering it all over the internet.

She works for BUPA hence the lower salary perhaps - and BUPA do not use NHS grades. Still a tory plant tho and a liar

[quote=tjagain ]She works for BUPA hence the lower salary perhaps - and BUPA do not use NHS grades. Still a tory plant tho and a liar

Ah, interesting.

Agreed she's definitely a liar and a plant

Osborne turning out to be Corbyn's strongest backer?

[img] [/img]

The Strong & Stable mantra was always risky

[b]Weak & Wobbly[/b] is edging it out

[img] [/img]

What was it I was saying? 😀

This is not going to go away.

(Bugger beaten to it!)

What's happening to the 'don't knows'?

BoardinBob - Member

tjagain » She works for BUPA hence the lower salary perhaps - and BUPA do not use NHS grades. Still a tory plant tho and a liar

Ah, interesting.

Agreed she's definitely a liar and a plant

Its only what I have read in t'internet

However what she is quoting is the starting salery for a band 5 nurse without any increments. IE someone in their first year of nursing. I am a top band five ( 10 years service) last year with unsocial hours payments I made £32 000. Now you can argue all you like about whether thats sufficient reward or not - but it certainly does not put you on the breadline needing foodbanks.

However what she is quoting is the starting salery for a band 5 nurse without any increments. IE someone in their first year of nursing. I am a top band five ( 10 years service) last year with unsocial hours payments I made £32 000. Now you can argue all you like about whether thats sufficient reward or not - but it certainly does not put you on the breadline needing foodbanks.

But it's not exactly enough for a decent standard of living for a professional of 10 years living in the south. If you were single and living in the London area, that'd pay for a shitty studio, your food, the underground and couple of meals out a month - with maybe a few hundred left over a month for savings. Fine when you are 21, bollocks if you are 31 - whats the pay like for the same position in London?

Still, she won't be on the breadline - so likely a Tory plant.

Crazy thing is the dementia tax isnt a bad idea

with caps set relative to local earnings/housing price etc it could be a great way of helping to fix the housing crisis (along with a huge new housebuilding scheme) and help redistribute wealth

would also require that social care be ringfenced or the councils already cut to the bone would still be unable to deliver it properly

unfortunately weak & wobbly Maybots 100% uncosted manifesto is so badly put together that it would just cause chaos

Just like her time at the Home Office she is running things very badly

Barnier & the gang are going to run rings around May & her team of incompetents

First election leaflet here - Lib Dems win. I'm relieved to find it's somebody I can vote for without having to cross my fingers or hold my nose, unlike the last couple of Lib Dem candidates here (I already knew that, he was selected a week or so ago - but it's nice to see the election leaflet doesn't have anything offputting either this time).

[quote=kimbers ]Crazy thing is the dementia tax isnt a bad idea

It's not at all - but you'd think the political parties would have worked out by now that it's not the merits of the ideas which matter. As I wrote earlier I can only assume they thought they had this election stitched up already.

But it's not exactly enough for a decent standard of living......If you were single and living in the London area, that'd pay for a shitty studio, your food, the underground and couple of meals out a month - with maybe a few hundred left over a month for savings.

So, enough to pay for housing, food, travel, occasional luxuries [i]and [/i] have some left over for some savings* all whilst living in one of the most expensive cities in the country?

I'll agree it might not be the height of middle class living but I'd hardly class that as not being a 'decent standard', it's above average and if you're in a partnership or married and that's only half your income I'd say its pretty good**, and as you say not on the breadline, and definitely waaaay above the many who struggle to both house and feed themselves, walk/cycle everywhere and can't put any money into savings.

* a few hundred a month into savings is a lot more than most people manage!

** although still not enough for what the job entails IMO, but that's more to do with the requirements of the job rather than the requirements of a decent standard of living, ie: I think the job deserves more rather than more being necessary for living.

[quote=amedias ]But it's not exactly enough for a decent standard of living......If you were single and living in the London area, that'd pay for a shitty studio, your food, the underground and couple of meals out a month - with maybe a few hundred left over a month for savings.
So, enough to pay for housing, food, travel, occasional luxuries and have some left over for some savings* all whilst living in one of the most expensive cities in the country?
I'll agree it might not be the height of middle class living but I'd hardly class that as not being a 'decent standard', it's above average and if you're in a partnership or married and that's only half your income I'd say its pretty good**, and as you say not on the breadline, and definitely waaaay above the many who struggle to both house and feed themselves, walk/cycle everywhere and can't put any money into savings.
* a few hundred a month into savings is a lot more than most people manage!
** although still not enough for what the job entails IMO, but that's more to do with the requirements of the job rather than the requirements of a decent standard of living, ie: I think the job deserves more rather than more being necessary for living.

If she is genuinely using foodbanks while leading the life that her twitter and facebook suggest, then she's abusing the service a foodbank provides and depriving someone else of the benefit. And that makes her a complete clownshoe.

If she's not using foodbanks, then she's a liar and plant by the tories or BBC.

Those savings would quickly evaporate because of the long hours on the job, so you'd be eating out a lot - and by travelling - you mean commuting to work. Yeah! ****in awesome!

And by a studio, I mean a 13 m2 room, with a shower and a kitchen stuffed into it. That's not even working class by the standards of further up north. Granted it's better than being unemployed up North, but I'd wager you'd feel better off on 18k in Sheffield.

Support for the Labour party in Wales has surged in the last two weeks, while the Conservative momentum in Wales appears to have gone into reverse.

http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/05/22/the-new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-5/

If she is genuinely using foodbanks while leading the life that her twitter and facebook suggest, then she's abusing the service a foodbank provides and depriving someone else of the benefit. And that makes her a complete clownshoe.

If she's not using foodbanks, then she's a liar and plant by the tories or BBC.

Totally with you on that, I'm just surprised at Toms description of someone (not her) who, while single, can live in London, meet all their bills and save a couple of hundred a month as not being a 'decent standard of living'.

That's an aspiration for a very large number of people, and I totally understand the point about the standard of accommodation outside London (for the same money) being better, but that doesn't change the fact that that's actually a pretty decent position to be in.

Many many people scrape by month to month, in crappy acoomodation. only just covering their bills (or not) and not being able to save a single penny.

Don't get me wrong, I wish it were better for everyone (me included) but don't forget just how good we/most people on STW have it, and that one mans 'barely a decent standard' is another's 'decadent luxury that they'll never achieve'.

I don't know really what my point is other than 'keep some perspective'

As they say you don't win an election, the incumbent losses it. Well right now the Tories are really trying hard to do the latter. If May doesn't buck her ideas up, then rather than come out of the GE stronger, she could be severely weakened both with the electorate and her own party.

However, there are still nearly 3 weeks to go, but that's a long time when seemingly you have no clear message.

Was talking to a customer last week, an investment manager for a fairly big company in Wakefield. He made a very off hand comment that "we're all set for when Labour win". I pulled him up on it, basically saying I thought The Tories were all set to walk it, not according to him they're not. He's a Tory voter but is absolutely adamant that Labour will win, said that all the investment firms in the area and people in his network think the same, reckons the London bias of the media has vastly underestimated how well Labour are doing at the moment.

It was an interesting take.

A shitty studio in London is just big enough to get out of a single bed and put clothes on. 13m2 would be a bijou open plan apartment.

The Tory policies smack of a government scared witless of the impending Brexit debacle, and trying to jettison any commitments they can to free up wiggle room for the impending economic slowdown.

That said they really must be regretting using strong and stable as a slogan as whatever we wish to describe this as it is not that.
Personally I did not actually think it was that bad an idea as 100k is still a fair chunk of cash for most folk.

Tom_W1987

London weighting

Inner London 20% of basic salary, subject to a minimum payment of £4,200 and a maximum payment of £6,469
Outer London 15% of basic salary, subject to a minimum payment of £3,553 and a maximum payment of £4,528
Fringe 5% of basic salary, subject to a minimum payment of £971 and a maximum payment of £1,682

Band 6 starting point is 26 500 + unsocial hours premium worth to most a couple of grand a year

[url= http://www.cornwalllive.com/watch-boris-johnson-and-derek-thomas-confronted-by-angry-heckler-in-st-ives-over-brexit-promises/story-30347045-detail/story.html ]Meanwhile Boris does a runner[/url]

Personally I did not actually think it was that bad an idea as 100k is still a fair chunk of cash for most folk.

Indeed, now shes proposing a cap
so if you are unlucky enough to get a high care cost illness- like dementia that can go on for decades- and your assets are below the cap that she's setting then you loose everything.
If you are wealthy then all your assets above the cap are protected.

May has turned a reasonable idea into a punishment for the poorest while protecting the wealthiest !

That said they really must be regretting using strong and stable as a slogan as whatever we wish to describe this as it is not that.

Strong and stable refers to the smell of horse manure as the hunt heads off for the fox. 😉

Speaking of fox, has anyone seen Liam. Are we sure that May coming out in favour of fox hunting referred to quadrupeds and not dodgy doctors?

Kimbers its a cap on the amount spent on care - so everyone gets a minimum of £100 000 left and there will be a maximum you can pay say £250000. so have a house worth 500 000 you get 250 000 left

Fox is happy,
shutting down the serious fraud office means he's busy drawing up arms contracts and bribes for some of the world's dodgiest regimes

Fox is happy,

Even in the Tory party, I imagine there are a fair number of people who think Fox is a total roaster.