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John Curtice is apparently projecting 12 Tory seats in Scotland. Possible with sufficient tactical voting I guess - Yoons vs Nats.
jambalaya - Member
@kimbers we need more Spring B/H's like a hole in the head, as per Queen's Jubilee we need a few more in June and/or July
true
but as a way of helping britain re-integrate after the divisions of brexit, its a great idea
[quote=outofbreath ]Or to put it another way, "We have found out running the country requires unpopular decisions, so we don't want to do it because it will harm us electorally."
I'm not sure why you felt the need for the laughing smiley - just see TJ's thoughts after they made the mistake of engaging in pragmatic politics and doing the best thing they could in the circumstances, and he's far from alone in those thoughts. It appears that such past supporters are happy to cut off their noses - because they compromised and didn't deliver everything in their manifesto it seems a Tory majority is now preferable to another such coalition 🙄
Though as has already been pointed out on this thread, the situation is different to 2010, when it was felt a strong government was required. I'm sure they would be perfectly happy now to take the other path of voting with a minority government depending on the issues.
I'm happy to state right now I'll be voting Lib Dem (even if they put up another awful candidate like the last two I found myself unable to vote for) - they're the only party with a chance of getting close to the Tories in my constituency.
[quote=jambalaya ]The second round campaigning is going to be very ugly
The second round is pretty much a foregone conclusion - the president effectively gets elected tomorrow (and no, it won't be the person with the most votes tomorrow). It might be ugly but it won't change anything.
I'm not sure why you felt the need for the laughing smiley - just see TJ's thoughts after they made the mistake of engaging in pragmatic politics and doing the best thing they could in the circumstances, and he's far from alone in those thoughts. It appears that such past supporters are happy to cut off their noses - because they compromised and didn't deliver everything in their manifesto it seems a Tory majority is now preferable to another such coalition
This.
In the meantime, I think the official statement on coalition strongly implies they'd consider a coalition with Labour [i]if[/i] JC isn't leader, largely because his actions have been pro-Brexit.
I'm not so sure @aracer
If it's Le Pen vs Macron of Fillion then yes its expected than Le Pen loses to tactical voting. However if its Macron v Fillion or Le Pen vs Melenchon it's far from clear
Aracer - its not just the coalition with the Tories - its the support of the liar carmicheal and the bigoted views of ~Farron - plus the refusal to apologise for the tory enabling
Its not "cutting of my nose to spite my face" Its about not supporting the tories and not supporting liars
The lib dems made a huge mistake in going tinto coalition with the tories and discarded alltheir power as holders of the balance of power by doing so. If they had done a supply and confidence deal they would have had much more power and wouldn't have had to support such things as selling off the post office.
Their USP used to be they had principles. Now its clear they have none. I would actually rate them worse than the toris because of the dishonesty
No politicians ever go into to an election talking about coalition as you want every vote and seat you can get, talk of coalition harms your vote as people start thinking or for a = B etc.
Scotsroutes - curtis is usually not far off but 12 tories in Scotland? I would be very suprised
Interesting on the latest quote from Farron ruling out coalition with the tories - thats a major change in stance in a week
The best thing the lib dems could do is withdraw all their candidates and ask their supporters to vote labour - they have split the left vote for decades leading to majority tory governments.
The best thing the lib dems could do is withdraw all their candidates and ask their supporters to vote labour - they have split the left vote for decades leading to majority tory governments.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
A quick glance at the key targets for the libdems suggests otherwise. A good libdem performance mainly takes seats from the Tories ATM. 13 Tory seats in the top 20, vs 3 Labour and 4 SNP.
Very focused tactical voting will be the only way to restrict May's majority.
The best thing labour could do is withdraw.
That or vcome out strongly against brexit. That's clearly the single biggest most expensive catastrophe about to befall the UK, all other political problems pale beside it. Libdems give us a choice that the other two parties deny us.
The best thing the lib dems could do is withdraw all their candidates and ask their supporters to vote labour - they have split the left vote for decades leading to majority tory governments.
And then leaves a major void for people who are in the centre, who don't agree with all the labour policies and don't agree with the right agenda.
Get over the left and right part and you might see that, the length dems are not splitting the labour vote, labour doesn't appeal to a lot of voters.
May is clearly not being enough of a bastard for Paul Dacre, though.
(apols for link, naturally)
http://www.****/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half-tax-U-turn.html
Its a shame they are all so shortsighted. there is actually very little difference between the lib dems and labour on policy and a single election non aggression anti tory pact with a single pledge to introduce proper PR for Westminster would mean no more tory governments ever again - but they are so tribal and shortsighted they will not do it.
I despise the lib dems for their dishonesty. at least the tories are honest
So when did labour start supporting PR?
martinhutch - Member
May is clearly not being enough of a bastard for Paul Dacre, though.(apols for link, naturally)
That's interesting. The Sun and now the DM both having a go at May. And one of the first things May did when she became PM was have a meeting with Dacre, then all the Thatcher demi-god comparisons started.
I wonder if this is just a shot across the bows by Murdoch and Dacre to say "don't go soft on Brexit, we can crush you"?
No politicians ever go into to an election talking about coalition as you want every vote and seat you can get, talk of coalition harms your vote as people start thinking or for a = B etc.
Absolutely. It's a curtain call decision not something you politicise.
"the official statement on coalition strongly implies they'd consider a coalition with Labour if JC isn't leader"
Yeah, I missed the significance of that when I cracked my hilarious joke. It's actually a very shrewd statement for several reasons.
... at least the tories are honest
Say what, now?
They don't the captain - however its just an example of their short sighted tribalism
.. at least the tories are honestSay what, now?
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pondo - we all know the tory policies - they are open and transparent if utterly horrid. the lib dems say one thing and do another and the Carmichael episode shows how dishonest they are.
[Basil Fawlty voice] Don't mention the Bus! [/Basil Fawlty voice]
Anyone remember which PM promised no early election?
Which one went from alleged remain to full on hard brexit?
Honest in comparision to the lib dems. we know the basis of their policies. However the lib dems continue to support a man who has been found guuilty of lying by a court - and of cost the country over a million pounds with that lie
the lib dems also did numerous U turns onpolicy to enable the tories.
when you make honesty and principles your USP and then break multiple pledges then you lose all integrity.
So it's ok for tories to lie because they haven't said they won't...?
Tj's standpoint is a perfect example of why the left will always lose. Too busy infighting to see the bigger picture.
owever the lib dems continue to support a man who has been found guuilty of lying by a court - and of cost the country over a million pounds with that lie
Eh?
So it's ok for tories to lie because they haven't said they won't...?
It seems a bit like nobody blames the Croc that eats somebody, it was just hanging out doing it`s thing and then lunch jumped in the water past the warning signs. But if a rabbit ate somebody there would be an outcry.
With labour pushing left and the tories going full right/alt-right/american there is room for a centrist party in the UK.
In order for tactical vote switching to work, the voters need to be convinced one of the parties stands a better chance than the others. Roll out the "independent" analyst.....tjagain - Member
Scotsroutes - curtis is usually not far off but 12 tories in Scotland? I would be very suprised
+1 jam bo
Jambo - I agree. However for me the lib dems actions have put them in a position I will not vote for. The only way I would would be if they had a non agression pact with labour. Fortunatly its irrelevnt to me as there is zero chance of either lib dems or tories getting in in my seat but a vote for the lib dems only helps the tories
Muddy
Carmichael leaked a report he knew was false smearing Sturgeon, He denied it until after his election then admitted it. the investigation into the leak and the court case cost over a million pounds. He was re-elected with a wafer thin majority and no doubt at all if he had admitted the lie before the election he would not have got in. The Lib dems refused to do anything to censure him indeed continue to support him. He was branded a liar in court but was not disbarred because of a technicality. You can cal him a liar with no chance of a libel wriut because he admitted the lie under oath in court.
May is clearly not being enough of a bastard for Paul Dacre, though.
Dacre doesn't edit the Mail on Sunday, has very different editorial stance - supported remain for instance.
the bigoted views of ~Farron
Farron is a true liberal unlike those who criticize him for his views. [url= https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/07/tim-farrons-views-offer-reminder-actually-means-liberal/ ]Good expalantion here.[/url]
Farron is not a true liberal. He is an evangelical fundamentalist christian who believes gay sex is a sin and will not state that he does not believe this. He is no liberal. His appointment split the party and I know lib dem activists who have stopped campaigning because he is their leader and they cannot support a Bigot.
He has tried to wriggle out using weasel words but when pinned he will NOT repudiate his previous stance on the record that gay sex is a sin.
Mefty, it doesn't change the fact that Faron is a rampant homophobe though...
It's all pretty depressing really. I don't want Brexit, so I vote for a homophobic? That's the choice? It's like choosing which turd sandwich you'd rather eat. How did we get here?
We collectively didn't engage enough in politics is how
Whatever his personally held views are, do they make any difference to his professional life? As in, does he act on those views or put them aside?
Bigger picture indeed, you would think he was proposing mandatory pray yourself straight camps the morning after the election the way folk are going on.
TJ - the correct term is compromise. How can you work in a coalition if you don't compromise? They could have equally went in with Labour. Wonder how that would have worked out for them? Not much better I'm guessing. And stepping aside for Labour? You mean the Labour that's quite happy to go along with a Brexit that leaves us in exactly the same place but without any of the benefits we currently have? Smart move.
TJ - the correct term is compromise. How can you work in a coalition if you don't compromise? They could have equally went in with Labour.
Exactly, we seem to have too many people these days who are working in black and white. If you don't have enough MP's to carry a majority not enough people agree with you and you will have to compromise on some things. If you don't understand this I suggest you are living a sheltered life or in a bubble.
Nope - they had no need to go into coalition. By doing so and stating they would see out the full five years they gave away all power as they then could not vote against anything the tories put it
what they should have done is a supply and confidence deal to support a minority government. that would have allowed them to wield power far beyond their number of MPs and would have protected their reputation. For example selling off the post office would not have been something they would have had to vote for if they had done a supply and confidence deal so if they had had some guts and principles we would still have a publicly owned post office
However they sold their principles for a few ministerial cars and by doing so lost all ability to hold the tories to account. Gutless naive and unprincipled.
I wouldn't even mind so much if they would now acknowledge their mistake
squirrelking - MemberWhatever his personally held views are, do they make any difference to his professional life? As in, does he act on those views or put them aside?
He acts on those views. He can do no other as his responsibility in his mind is to his god not the public
Whatever his personally held views are, do they make any difference to his professional life? As in, does he act on those views or put them aside?
Precisely, but that would involve some thought, which seems to be too big an ask. Sadly, far too many people who espouse liberal values are intolerant of other people's views and are therefore remarkably illiberal.
Trying to balance this myself at the moment.
My current thinking is that while the LibDem leader [i]is[/i] an issue for me, it seems the [i]entire[/i] Labour leadership is such disarray that they are not presenting an effective opposition.
So I'll probably go LibDem on a "least f#*}$% up party" ballot. 🙁
Might even just give up completely and vote Green. Not like it makes any odds in my constituency (Hexham) anyway. Tories will walk it as usual.