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While that all may be the case, can you see the US having gained anything by the time this is nominally 'over'?
Their status is massively diminished, they're essentially now friendless, having burnt pretty much every bridge with former allies, the Iranian regime is still there and is emboldened in the knowledge that it can hold the world to ransom whenever it fancies and use safe passage as a cash cow.
The whole thing is one almighty self-defeating cluster-****!! Which is hardly surprising when you look at the morons responsible for organizing it.
The only real winner out of all this is still busy doing what he does best.... killing kids while bombing hospitals in Lebanon
I think China will try and get a ship through. They will call trumps bluff knowing that any us action against an unescorted ship will only increase pressure on trump
but lets not kid ourselves that the US isn't more destructive and powerful by orders of magnitude.
Nobody is kidding themselves. That's been patently true from the outset. The status quo is that it doesnt seem to matter. USA is not going to carpet bomb / nuke Tehran and all the other cites, they dont have the will to bear the political costs. Being able to take out all the miliary things doesnt matter when you can functionally close the straight to commerical traffic with $100 of gubbins from ali express and a hand grenade. The regime has nothing to lose, I dont see the incentive for them to tap out.
While that all may be the case, can you see the US having gained anything by the time this is nominally 'over'?
Nope they 'gained' absolutely zero. But now, Iran has more to loose
, I dont see the incentive for them to tap out.
because they are just a moderately important export partner to some states in south Asia, not a superpower, and that's the end of that. They were sort of a regional power at best, but not a very powerful one, and currently they're not even that, and they have plenty of neighbors who'd take advantage of that. They're not going to be allowed to hold the straights hostage, and they have a population that's barely under control, and because China; the biggest export market for the only thing they can sell (illegally under sanction) will tell them to.
Trump hasn't won anything, but Iran have lost more.
They're not going to be allowed to hold the straights hostage
They seem to have been doing more than a passable impression of it for the last few weeks fella.
They've proved they can do it easily. Simply the very threat of destroying a tanker and no tanker can then get insurance to sail, so they're going nowhere. Simple as that. Technically they haven't closed the straits, Lloyds of London have.
but Iran have lost more
The Iranian people may have done, the regime seems to be stronger than ever. Its goes without saying that the regime couldn't give a flying **** about the population
This ex-merchant Navy, now Merchant Navy Instructor has phoned into James O'Brien a couple of times and knows his onions. It's not Oil we should be worried about, it's the Helium.
https://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mjgs4txlnm2r
Hopefully the captain of the ship carrying the Helium will have a great big huff on it before declaring his intention to run the blockade.
Being able to take out all the miliary things doesnt matter when you can functionally close the straight to commerical traffic with $100 of gubbins from ali express and a hand grenade.
Having the 82nd Airborne and a Marine EU occupy your most strategically important island is going to be just a difficult for the Iranians to re-occupy as it is for the US to hold. See Ukraine and Russia experience in Donbas and Luhansk. Iran cannot have that happen under any circumstances, closed straights or no.
Having the 82nd Airborne and a Marine EU occupy your most strategically important island is going to be just a difficult for the Iranians to re-occupy as it is for the US to hold.
I don't doubt they'd prefer it not happen. But if it does they'll be able to harvest GI's with drones, wont play well at home. Looks like another bruise to punch to me. Iran lives there. They have time.
(hope you are right tho!)
The only real winner out of all this is still busy doing what he does best.... killing kids while bombing hospitals in Lebanon
The real winners are Russia and probably China.
Israel its definitely a tactical success but its unclear if it is going to be a long term one. They have burned through a lot of goodwill from various countries and even in the US public opinion is shifting heavily.
Technically they haven't closed the straits, Lloyds of London have.
Lloyds are happy to insure its just they have adjusted the premium accordingly. Although this might now have changed with the US blockade.
Trump hasn't won anything, but Iran have lost more.
The situation here though is that neither leader cares about the people they lead, or any of the other people in the world.
But if it does they'll be able to harvest GI's with drones
I don't doubt the ability of Iran to throw drones at it, I equally don't doubt the American's ability to hold it.
Israel its definitely a tactical success but its unclear if it is going to be a long term one.
Agreed, I think some regional authoritarian states will rebuild relationships pretty rapidly (Saudi and Egypt), but Italy have already binned a rolling military deal they had with Israel, won't be the last.
Well no, because that assumes they have 100% switched to drawing down reserves. They have domestic production and various other sources. They will be depleting reserves very slowly at this point.
Mr Google tells me that China produces 4.3 million barrels per day and consumes 16 million barrels per day. That's a deficit of 11.7 million barrels per day. So if they continue consuming at the same rate their 1.4 billion stocks will last approx 120 days.
Israel its definitely a tactical success but its unclear if it is going to be a long term one
Fertile ground from where the next generation of Lebanese and Palestinian terrorists will come from?
Well no, because that assumes they have 100% switched to drawing down reserves. They have domestic production and various other sources. They will be depleting reserves very slowly at this point.
Mr Google tells me that China produces 4.3 million barrels per day and consumes 16 million barrels per day. That's a deficit of 11.7 million barrels per day. So if they continue consuming at the same rate their 1.4 billion stocks will last approx 120 days.
But only about 40% is from the gulf, so more like 280 days, assuming they don't increase supply from elsewhere, reduce demand, or get access to some of the gulf fuel via the Red Sea. The COST of oil might be an issue but they do not have an overnight supply issue. The rest of Asia may be a lot less prepared.
Well no, because that assumes they have 100% switched to drawing down reserves. They have domestic production and various other sources. They will be depleting reserves very slowly at this point.
Mr Google tells me that China produces 4.3 million barrels per day and consumes 16 million barrels per day. That's a deficit of 11.7 million barrels per day. So if they continue consuming at the same rate their 1.4 billion stocks will last approx 120 days.
They won't have anything like that deficit as many of their other imports are still flowing. Still receiving oil from:
Saudi - Red Sea pipeline exports
Iran - Sanctioned tankers
UAE - Pipeline to Gulf of Oman coastline
Oman
Maybe down 20% or so of their normal imports, Should be able to hang on for a couple of years.
I'm sure Vlad can step up his shipments to fill the gap if needed in the longer term.
But only about 40% is from the gulf, so more like 280 days
OK.
this is something youd expect to see from a russian ship
I don't doubt the ability of Iran to throw drones at it, I equally don't doubt the American's ability to hold it.
But at what cost? All fine and dandy until US soldiers start going home wrapped in flags.
But at what cost? All fine and dandy until more US soldiers start going home wrapped in flags.
FTFY
That's not fair; it's well known that the Tangerine ****waffle has equal disdain for dead soldiers of all colours and creeds.
All fine and dandy until more US soldiers start going home wrapped in flags.
Have there been any figures about killed and injured? Last I heard was that 13 USA Staff had died in action, but what about those planes/choppers that went down a few weeks ago, a long way from where the lost Pilot was meant to be? Surely there must have been a few injuries then?
And, on that subject, something I read said there is no way that 'raid' was a rescue attempt, being too far away, and far too many involved. Heard anything else on it?
I heard he was found using some crazy tech that can detect human heartbeats called ghost murmur or something. Not sure if it’s true, it sounds like sci-fi.
Have there been any figures about killed and injured? Last I heard was that 13 USA Staff had died in action, but what about those planes/choppers that went down a few weeks ago, a long way from where the lost Pilot was meant to be? Surely there must have been a few injuries then?
And, on that subject, something I read said there is no way that 'raid' was a rescue attempt, being too far away, and far too many involved. Heard anything else on it?
There's a conspiracy theory that actually the 'rescue' was some kind of operation related to the nuclear program. We'll find out in a while when the people invovled start podcasts i guess!
I'd also include the people that resigned in the casualty list. Some very valuable people there. Had they been killed by a missile it would be considered the worst thing to have happened to the US military since WWII.
There's a conspiracy theory that actually the 'rescue' was some kind of operation related to the nuclear program. We'll find out in a while when the people invovled start podcasts i guess!
I saw something on YouTube the other week, either BBC or Sky, where they were talking to some expert speculating about exactly that. So presumably relatively credible people are wondering the same thing.
Re the downed planes and helicopters - deliberately destroyed on the ground by the Americans weren't they? Or so the story goes... etc etc.
Not sure if it’s true, it sounds like sci-fi.
The problem nowadays is that the USAs standing has really gone down. Since Trump 2025, and the constant lies and absurd exaggerations, most outside of MAGA are now very cynical of anything USA. The USAs aura has diminished to a toxic rotten orange nowadays.
A recent episode of the Rest Is Classified podcast covered the rescue mission in some detail and talked a little about this "heart beat detection" tech rumour.
In my eyes (ears?!?), the hosts have credibility and are well worth listening to, though whether all the tech rumours are true is obviously debatable!
The latest Iranian Lego propaganda, trolling Pete Hegseth, really is quite something. I can’t quite get my head around the fact that this is being churned out by a murderous authoritarian dictatorship, which I suppose is the whole point.
They’re running rings around the Americans, whose propaganda is as crass and stupid as this is slick and smart
What's not to like about that.....!?!
It seems that the US has finally achieved regime change
The widely reported attack by gunboats on a tanker in the SOH yesterday, closing the strait, indicates a takeover by the IRGC from political moderates
Someone pointed out this morning that the Iranians can now close the Strait of Homouz as and when they feel like it at virtually zero cost or risk to themselves. They simply attack a tanker and it’s shut, and there’s absolutely nothing that anybody can do about it, short of a full scale invasion
They were also saying that on the nuclear programme Trump is now prepared to accept a much worse deal than Obama’s (the worst deal ever!) just so that he can say he won. The trouble is that the new harder line Iranian regime are telling him where to stick it
So much winning! The biggliest win ever!
Trump is now prepared to accept a much worse deal than Obama’s (the worst deal ever!) just so that he can say he won.
Not sure how much truth is in the rumours/conspiracies .. but. Apparently the recent operation to save the 2nd airman shot down in Iran was a really a cover for some special ops related to the `nuclear dust` Trump often refers to. Again, the rumour is that up to 50 delta force operatives were captured and Trump is accepting the worse deal to cover it up to avoid further embarrassment.
As much as I dislike all parties involved Iran is winning the social media war hands down. Poking trumps ego and main line of communication with with a well aimed twitter dart. The Lego ones are a pr master class as is the new venom one.
This year can only get better eh
Apparently the recent operation to save the 2nd airman shot down in Iran was a really a cover for some special ops related to the `nuclear dust` Trump often refers to. Again, the rumour is that up to 50 delta force operatives were captured and Trump is accepting the worse deal to cover it up to avoid further embarrassment.
Source for all of this...???
Apparently the recent operation to save the 2nd airman shot down in Iran was a really a cover for some special ops related to the `nuclear dust` Trump often refers to. Again, the rumour is that up to 50 delta force operatives were captured and Trump is accepting the worse deal to cover it up to avoid further embarrassment.
Source for all of this...???
I was also sceptical about this, but then it dawned on me that following this incredible feat of heroism and survival, I've not seen any further reports regarding the rescused airmen, no photos, medical updates on the injured one, no photo ops with the war mongers. That just seems very odd. Maybe I've missed it. Maybe the original story was a smokescreen for something, though I'm not convinced by the nuclear theory either. The versions I've heard have made no reference to captured special forces, just a failed mission.
So why haven't the Iranians made capital out of it? Good manners? Sounds like a load of bollocks to me.
as usual there's absolutely zero evidence to suggest the conspiracy is real
is it possible? yes
is it likely? no
are there any reliable sources to back it up? no
anyway, USA looking like a liability to be involved with militarily:
https://bsky.app/profile/meidastouch.com/post/3mjuoigyldk2l
I've not seen any further reports regarding the rescused airmen, no photos, medical updates on the injured one, no photo ops with the war mongers. That just seems very odd.
I could think of a few reasons why their faces wouldn't be all over the media, returned to ops, very medically banged up and so on. It's not necessarily a conspiracy.
While everyone's looking at the ships in the Strait, Israel is happily carrying on doing what Israel does. From the Guardian this morning....
IDF demolishing homes in Lebanon, paying bulldozers based on how many building are destroyed, reports say
The IDF has continued to demolish homes and other buildings including educational institutions in villages in southern Lebanon, even after the ceasefire agreed between the countries last week.
The army has hired civilian contractors to destroy homes, with some operators paid a daily rate while others are paid based on the number of buildings they destroy, according to Haaretz. As many as 20 excavators are running operations in a single village, the Israeli newspaper reported based on conversations with army commanders.
Academics have described the operations as domicide, a strategy that is used to systematically destroy and damage civilian housing to render entire areas uninhabitable.
Buildings in villages, including educational institutions, homes and others are destroyed after receiving permission, in a policy the IDF refers to as the “money plow”, according to the newspaper.
it's going to be another 'temp buffer zone' that'll accidentally start accruing settlers isnt it
It's an occupation. We'll see the usual ethnic cleansing so beloved of Netanyahu and co. The population that have been drive north can't return to their homes if their homes are now just piles of rubble
it's going to be another 'temp buffer zone' that'll accidentally start accruing settlers isnt it
Clear as day. Not calling it out and condemning it at the highest level is a disgrace.