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Looks like Iran has seen Trumps threats and raised him, so now it's a pissing competition. Brilliant!
From the Guardian this morning....
Iran says coastal attack will lead to full Gulf closure and mine-laying
Iran’s defence council threatened to lay sea mines to block the entire Gulf if Iran’s coasts or islands are attacked, according to the Fars news agency.
“Any attempt by the enemy to attack Iranian coasts or islands will naturally, and in accordance with common military practice, cause all access routes and communication lines in the Persian Gulf and the coasts to be mined with various types of naval mines, including floating mines that can be released from the coasts,” the statement read.
“In that case, the entire Persian Gulf will practically find a situation similar to the strait of Hormuz for a long time. This time, along with the strait of Hormuz, the entire Persian Gulf will be practically blocked, and the responsibility for it will lie with the threatening party.”
he could install ......a Christian Nationalist theocracy, it wouldn't matter.
Is that not what a lot of MAGA types think and hope Trump is doing?
That's certainly how Crusader Pete sees it
No doubt that utter ****-wit is going to go ahead and start hitting Irans power plants then all hell is going to break loose all over the region.
Its the water infrastructure that it crucial. I don't think many people realise just how reliant the Gulf region is on desalination. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE get more than 90% of their potable water via desalination, and they all have populations that have grown significantly in the last 20 years making water resources even more stretched.
Eastern Yemen is about the only place on the Arabian peninsula that gets any significant rainfall, Saudi Arabia is the largest country in the world without a permanent river. If Iran goes after desalination plants across the Gulf in a big way it will have a massive impact on the local populations.
Looks like it could be all over soon as the BBC is reporting "Donald Trump says the US and Iran have held talks on the complete and total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East". That's ok then, nothing to look at here.
And you need power (quite a lot of it) to run desalination plants.No doubt that utter ****-wit is going to go ahead and start hitting Irans power plants then all hell is going to break loose all over the region.
Its the water infrastructure that it crucial. I don't think many people realise just how reliant the Gulf region is on desalination. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE get more than 90% of their potable water via desalination, and they all have populations that have grown significantly in the last 20 years making water resources even more stretched.
Eastern Yemen is about the only place on the Arabian peninsula that gets any significant rainfall, Saudi Arabia is the largest country in the world without a permanent river. If Iran goes after desalination plants across the Gulf in a big way it will have a massive impact on the local populations.
TACO
For now.
Give it an hour or two and we might have another Truth Social post saying he's changed his mind and is now going to wipe Iran off the face of the earth.
The whole worlds energy infrastructure now appears to be based on the whims of some senile and unhinged old giffer in Washington who can't remember what he said this time yesterday.
I still can''t believe to what extent this has exposed the idea of democracy in America as a total sham. They effectively have an emperor, not a president, who rules by decree issued via social media. The rest of the alleged democratic system in the US seems to be largely irrelevant and completely pointless
Stock market is hilarious today. Some of the stocks I hold have gone down to -15% then back to +8% in 3 hours. This whole war is just one massive market manipulation and insider dealing scam isn’t it?
Is that not what a lot of MAGA types think and hope Trump is doing?
I think that's what many talking heads in the 'alternative media' (who are in turn financially supported by some of the mega-evangelical churches) were hoping and expecting in return for their donations. I think it's apparent to all but the very dimmest that Trump is, and only ever has been interested in himself. They lost sight of the one of the few abiding truths about the man - He never pays his creditors.
Stock market is hilarious today. Some of the stocks I hold have gone down to -15% then back to +8% in 3 hours. This whole war is just one massive market manipulation and insider dealing scam isn’t it?
Markets are completely irrational, this whole episode just shows how deep that goes. The bull market mentality is completely underpricing the downside of this situation and reacting in a disproportionately positive manner to the utterances of this f#ckwit.
This whole war is just one massive market manipulation and insider dealing scam isn’t it?
The whole Trump presidency is and behind most of what he does.
Just listened to R4's The World This Weekend, 30 minutes of depressing analysis of the current situation. Worse was that none of the thoughtful and knowledgeable contributors can see where this is going. The last lady to speak (apologies I cannot recall her name or position) warning that we should not underestimate Iran's appetite for drawing out the current conflict well beyond anything the current US regime is prepared for.
Having travelled through Israel and Iran in the mid 80's, it certainly chimed with my experience that the sheer grit in the face of adversity of both those nations should not be underestimated.
How this plays out and who helps to broker some sort of peace? An opportunity for China?
It isn't only "Iran's appetite for drawing out the current conflict well beyond anything the current US regime is prepared for". Through a supreme masterstroke, this war is three-sided and they all have very different objectives (or no objectives at all).
China will benefit if for no other reason than the US firing its stocks of rare earth minerals atop missiles all over the middle-east
Trump is even at the stage now where his lies don`t even make sense. Its another full TACO - his usual "2 weeks" deadline may have enabled enough empty headed MAGA to forget .. but his 48 hour deadline was a bit too short.
Its gonna be interesting to see how this ends. Iran are taking a pounding for sure, but they don`t appear in panic mode.
Iran are taking a pounding for sure, but they don`t appear in panic mode.
Far from it. It's almost as if they've been preparing for this for ages and have effectively planned its reactions accordingly
I keep seeing Trump, Netanyahu and Hegseth bragging about how much bombing they've done and I just keep thinking of Vietnam.
They dropped millions and millions and millions of tonnes of heavy ordinance on that country (and its neighbours) and where exactly did it get them? Desperately scrambling to get on the last chopper out of Saigon.
I wonder what percentage of these American munitions have ended up just making big craters in the desert?
I’ve seen Mark Rutte quoted as saying that since Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, Trump was right to attack them, and NATO need to help. If those quotes are accurate it does more to support the Green view of NATO than Zack Polanski could ever have dreamed of.
Edit to add link
That isn't what he says. It's political double-speak that Mark Rutte is very good at and that President Trump will take as support, but that NATO actions don't support.
It's more about Mark Rutte's opinion than that of NATO. Israel, parts of Europe and the world are nothing to do with NATO, unless they're NATO members.
He doesn't attribute blame for the war, but now that it's kicked off,
"...it is the more evidence that what the President is doing here, taking out the ballistic missile capability, taking out the nuclear capability from Iran, is crucial."
"If Iran would have the nuclear capability, including, together with the missile capability, it will be a direct threat, a existential threat, to Israel, to the region, to Europe, to the stability in the world."
He doesn't mention NATO as an organisation, just countries that happen to be NATO members,
"...since Thursday, 22 countries, most of them NATO, but also Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Bahrain, the UAE..."
In contrast to Trump,
"DONALD TRUMP: I think NATO is making a very foolish mistake. And I've long said that, you know, I wonder whether or not NATO would ever be there for us. So this is a this was a great test, because we don't need them, but they should have been there."
As @kimbers
some sympathy for Rutte,
Hmmm, I suppose I might have been a bit harsh. I'm not a fan of his though I don't need to let it colour my analysis so much.
Trump is even at the stage now where his lies don`t even make sense. Its another full TACO - his usual "2 weeks" deadline may have enabled enough empty headed MAGA to forget .. but his 48 hour deadline was a bit too short.
Its gonna be interesting to see how this ends. Iran are taking a pounding for sure, but they don`t appear in panic mode.
Militarily the US and Israel are fighting the war at a good level, as you'd expect.
It's the waging of that war that isn't going their way. How can you be bombing a country on the one hand, while letting them trade O&G normally and against sanctions?
The waging of war is the political side of the deal; I'll leave you to judge that one over the duration
Releasing national oil stock reserves reassures the markets and so reduces the strain on economies.
International Energy Agency member countries are required to ensure oil stock levels equivalent to no less than 90 days of net imports. The majority of IEA members are above this, however, latest figures (Dec 2025) show that Australia holds 49 days and NZ 88
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/oil-stocks-of-iea-countries
in a move that was more predictable than Iran bllocking Hormuz
Trump is gearing up throw hegseth under the bus...
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhqjrzxqeh2s
Anyone else noticed that when the markets are closed Trump threatens fire and fury, and when they open he backs down...
Makes you think
I was trying to find some data on the volume of oil futures being traded over say, the last six months, but can't find anything. Looking for volumes rather than prices, I bet there would have been a spike prior to the war. Anyone got anything?
Nobody else other than Grandpa Simpson seems to know anything about these supposed talks with Iran, least of all the Iranians
Voices in his head. Time to invoke the 25th. But Vance...
Anyone got anything?
It was well reported that Barron Trump bought a significant amount of oil before the strikes on Iran started
Yes the secret is out
They murdered almost the entire family of the Ayatollah in a sneaky attack.
They then bombed 150 to 160 school children.
Now, they want to get out of the war? They should just send the paratroopers to capture the oil field on the island at Strait of Hormuz. Or send the 5000 to 6000 ground troops in to see what will happen.
The world remembers their actions and one day they will have to pay for their actions.
It was well reported that Barron Trump bought a significant amount of oil before the strikes on Iran started
The inner circles all profited from this war. Easiest money to make.
Hmmm, I suppose I might have been a bit harsh
Not really. Just read his words. Ask who he means when he says “we are planning”. Ask why he is saying he hopes Americans support Trump. Read what he says about Ukraine and Trump’s pressure on Zelensky to do a deal with Putin. At some point a leader really needs principles.
I re read it.
He's a weasel. Thanks for reminding me.
Leader needs principles, let's see em. Say no to illegal aggression.
They murdered almost the entire family of the Ayatollah in a sneaky attack.
They then bombed 150 to 160 school children.
With the same people in Iran still in charge, it is hard to imagine them just saying "OK .. lets just forget all about the last couple months".
Iran has apparently stated around 1500 civilians have died since USA and Israel bombed them during negations. Something like 15% of those civilians have been children .. and of course the countries Supreme leader.
They murdered almost the entire family of the Ayatollah in a sneaky attack.
They then bombed 150 to 160 school children.
With the same people in Iran still in charge, it is hard to imagine them just saying "OK .. lets just forget all about the last couple months".
Iran has apparently stated around 1500 civilians have died since USA and Israel bombed them during negations. Something like 15% of those civilians have been children .. and of course the countries Supreme leader.
Iran has apparently stated around 1500 civilians have died since USA and Israel bombed them during negations.
Not sure the Iranian authorities are overly fussed about Iranian civilian deaths. Unless they are upset about being denied the ability to kill them themselves.
and of course the countries Supreme leader.
That, plus the rest, is rather more significant for them.
An obvious problem for any peace talks is last year whilst talks were ongoing Israel/USA launched an attack and Iran did nothing in return. This year during talks Israel/USA launched their special military operation.
I am not sure I would be trusting Israel/USA to be negotiating fairly and not lining up for third time lucky.
I am not sure I would be trusting Israel/USA to be negotiating fairly and not lining up for third time lucky.
Between The fundamentalist nutters in Tehran, the loons in the Trump administration and the genocidal bastards in Tel Aviv, I can't see any negotiations getting off the ground at all, never mind achieving anything. Could you think of 3 less trustworthy parties? Maybe throw Putin into the mix too, just so you've got a full house?
It now seems 100% definite that Trumps claim of talks was a complete spoof, just to try and get oil prices down for a bit. No doubt for both political and personal financial (market manipulation) reasons
It now seems 100% definite that Trumps claim of talks was a complete spoof, just to try and get oil prices down for a bit. No doubt for both political and personal financial (market manipulation) reasons
You see with Trump I don't think anything is 100% definite:
- might have been a discussion with someone who purported to be the defacto leader - the problem being when you destroy the leadership you've no idea who that is!
- might have been a random person who called him up, like the journalist at the FT seemingly did a few weeks ago, and Trump just assumed was "a good guy" from Iran
- might have been an intermediary who was actually acting for Iran, with their consent
- might have been an intermediary who Iran don't know about, but who might actually help broker a settlement
Just because Trump doesn't know who he spoke to, or what authority they had doesn't mean he didn't speak to someone! But its right out of his Art of Deal playbook - his problem is he doesn't understand what the otherside wants because he can't imagine wanting anything but money.
Didn't he just spend the whole weekend playing golf at Mar-a-Lago though?
Any negotiations that did (allegedly) take place can't have eaten into his valuable golfing time much
It's all about priorities
Just because Trump doesn't know who he spoke to, or what authority they had doesn't mean he didn't speak to someone!
Nah, just completely made up.
And one by one the governments of the other countries in the region are letting it be known they weren't facilitating such talks, because they didn't happen.
But its right out of his Art of Deal playbook
Remember... all those products out there with the "Trump" name on them are someone else's work, including that book.
With the same people in Iran still in charge, it is hard to imagine them just saying "OK .. lets just forget all about the last couple months".
I've not heard that the Iranians have issued any direct threats against Trump and his family in retaliation for Khamenei. Has this just been lost in all the other news that's been going on?
Unlikely to be successful with all the security around Trump and his clan unless an future president degrades his protection like Trump tried with Biden and Obama IIRC.