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"Poland has rejected a US request to transfer Patriot air defense systems to the Middle East, Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Tuesday, March 31."
"“Our Patriot batteries and their equipment serve to protect Polish skies and NATO’s eastern flank. Nothing changes in this regard, and we are not planning to move them anywhere,” he wrote on X."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72958
Trump is apparently now saying Iran have asked for a ceasefire. aye right!
Panic buying of petrol round us - FB posts of garages running out and I drove past queues at another today
Trump is apparently now saying Iran have asked for a ceasefire. aye right!
How many times have they "asked" so far?
they've been 'begging for a deal' for days apparently!
Panic buying of petrol round us - FB posts of garages running out and I drove past queues at another today
My partner had to try 3 garages before she got petrol yesterday, and had to buy super unleaded in the end.
Panic buying of petrol round us - FB posts of garages running out and I drove past queues at another today
That'll be because half the country is going away for Easter!
Panic buying of petrol round us - FB posts of garages running out and I drove past queues at another today
Aye, usual number of Tentboxes to be seen on cars though…
My partner had to try 3 garages before she got petrol yesterday, and had to buy super unleaded in the end.
Think how much faster she'll be now though 🙂
My partner had to try 3 garages before she got petrol yesterday, and had to buy super unleaded in the end.
Think how much faster she'll be now though 🙂
And running much cleaner as well....
Depends on her compression ratio. Is she prone to premature detonation?
"“Our Patriot batteries and their equipment serve to protect Polish skies and NATO’s eastern flank. Nothing changes in this regard, and we are not planning to move them anywhere,” he wrote on X."
This may well be covered elsewhere on the thread already, but it seems that the effectiveness of the Patriot system has pretty much been blown by this conflict. Early on in the war More or Less did an item on the number of missiles that had been launched into Irans neighbouring countries on the first couple of day of the conflict - more than 100 into each and how almost all of them had been intercepted by at least 2 patriots.
Two, possibly 3 being launched on each occasion because if the first fails to intercept there isn't time to launch the second.
So 100 odd $20,000 drones into 5 neighbouring countries effectively destroyed over 1000 Patriot missiles. Four billion dollars worth. It gives Iran's cheapo missiles and drones a 200% success rate - they destroy two patriots for every drone they launch - better than 200% in some cases because now and then the patriots will fail to intercept and an Iranian missile will knock out 2 patriots and a target on the ground. They literally can not miss.
Those neighbour countries now need to replenish their stocks but 1000 missiles will take over a year for the US to produce - the US can manufacture two patriots a day - but thats 2 years after the US has managed to replenish its own stocks which are now more than 60% spent.
Iran seeing the US begging for stocks back from other countries will be a signal to just fling anything into the air to keep running down those stocks - I bet we'll see Putin buzz Poland a bit too, and any other holders of US tech, just a few incursions into airspace - enough to keep them nervy.
FFS, how do I insert Bsky posts?
you can see the answer in your own post - "This author has chosen to make their posts visible only to people who are signed in."
Keva
they've been 'begging for a deal' for days apparently!
Trump is such a peace tease.
going back to these comments from a few days ago, it feels most likely now that Trump will just declare a spurious victory and "job done" and bugger off home to start ranting about still not having a peace prize. What then?I can well see Trump simply declaring victory, (again!) and ordering the whole force home leaving the region to sort it out between themselves.
Well, you know never know what he'll actually do but...as long as Iran keeps Hormuz shut, the Americans (and everyone else for that matter) will stay involved. This is over when the Iranians say it is.
Feels like Iran is left with the freedom to charge whatever it likes to each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage. That could be a nice little earner, and I don't see what other country would have the means and motivation to stop it. Would that be the new stable state of the world? Or will Iran keep firing off missiles/drones? Especially into Israel?
you can see the answer in your own post - "This author has chosen to make their posts visible only to people who are signed in."
Ohhh! DOH!
Isn't it weird to want the "baddies" (based on generations of being told who are the goodies are) to win this war?
Feels like Iran is left with the freedom to charge whatever it likes to each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage.
And that's exactly the reason this hasn't been tried before, apparently. If you don't succeed in deposing the Iranian regime, you just make it stronger.
Isn't it weird to want the "baddies" (based on generations of being told who are the goodies are) to win this war?
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
Feels like Iran is left with the freedom to charge whatever it likes to each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage. That could be a nice little earner, and I don't see what other country would have the means and motivation to stop it. Would that be the new stable state of the world?
Actually, that might not be such a bad thing, thinking about it. Price of oil goes up and stays up, the world becomes that little bit less dependent on the expensive byproducts, there's less incentive to Drill, baby, drill. One smack in the gob for the Orange manbaby. Winner, winner.
Am I just grasping at straws?
Unfortunately I think you are. Higher oil price means more incentive to drill baby drill. And the extra 'revenue' from the increased price is all going to the Iranian regime, which, as noted above, are not nice people.Actually, that might not be such a bad thing, thinking about it. Price of oil goes up and stays up, the world becomes that little bit less dependent on the expensive byproducts, there's less incentive to Drill, baby, drill. One smack in the gob for the Orange manbaby. Winner, winner.
Am I just grasping at straws?
Isn't it weird to want the "baddies" (based on generations of being told who are the goodies are) to win this war?
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
Nobody is going to 'win' this war. But the Iranian regime remaining is a disaster for the gulf states, a genuine existential threat. UAE, Bahrain, Qatar are tiny countries - total population if you exclude expatriates around 2 million. They might have lots of money but they are only viable against a fully hostile Iran as part of a protectorate in some form. Terrible situation for them.
This may well be covered elsewhere on the thread already, but it seems that the effectiveness of the Patriot system has pretty much been blown by this conflict
Not really. They are good for the job they are designed for hence why Ukraine kept asking for more (I assume they have given up now) and why Poland is keeping its vs sending them to the US. I think they have outperformed in some ways eg destroying some ballistic missiles.
For a time it was effectively an arms race with the attacker coming up with faster and more powerful missiles which cost a fortune and hence resulted in a limited supply and the defenders doing the same.
Now its switched so the attacker has those but there are also a load of cheaper, slower and simpler weapons as well. So the defender needs new, cheaper and more plentiful weapons to protect themselves. Lasers are one attempt at this and then you have counter drones and cheaper missiles. The US for example expanded a project which turned their unguided 70mm rockets into laser guided ones for use against drones.
tl:dr they need to part of an air defence system vs the entire system.
This may well be covered elsewhere on the thread already, but it seems that the effectiveness of the Patriot system has pretty much been blown by this conflict.
I know what you mean, but Ukraine has received fewer Patriot missiles in more than 4 years of war than have been used recently in the middle-east.
US European Command General Christopher Cavoli said last week,
"And in fact, we learned from some of their employment techniques right now," https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-received-fewer-patriot-missiles-in-1773044166.html
Isn't it weird to want the "baddies" (based on generations of being told who are the goodies are) to win this war?
Maybe ask ordinary Iranians for their opinion?
Feels like Iran is left with the freedom to charge whatever it likes to each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage. That could be a nice little earner, and I don't see what other country would have the means and motivation to stop it. Would that be the new stable state of the world?
Actually, that might not be such a bad thing, thinking about it. Price of oil goes up and stays up, the world becomes that little bit less dependent on the expensive byproducts, there's less incentive to Drill, baby, drill. One smack in the gob for the Orange manbaby. Winner, winner.
Am I just grasping at straws?
Iran doesn't own the Strait, any such agreement grants them de facto ownership.
honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
In the grand scheme of things it might be better for humanity if Iran "wins" as it would mean that fertiliser and fuel gets through to where it's needed.
The United Nations World Food Programme is saying that an additional 45 million people will be pushed into hunger and potential starvation due to rising food and fuel costs
In India people are fighting over has bottles.
Much of Asia is having to ration their fuel supplies.
Australia has enough supply for38 days of gas and 30 days of diesel.
My cousin in Sydney said that the shelves in the supermarket are empty.
The UK has a shipment of aviation fuel arriving soon. It'll be the last shipment as none has left the Straits since this kicked off. It takes at least two weeks for the shipments to arrive.
Here in Europe we're looking at this from quite a privileged position. Currently most of us can take the 25-40% hit at the pump, but we will soon be hit by supply problems and increased prices as goods can't get here.
Maybe ask ordinary Iranians for their opinion?
My GF is half Iranian.
Her old man hates the regime, but at the same time hates what the US (and the UK) has done to his country over the last century.
He just wants to see a change. Every time there's an uprising he gets his hopes up thinking "this is it, this time it's going to happen!" only to have his hopes crushed.
The United Nations World Food Programme is saying that an additional 45 million people will be pushed into hunger and potential starvation due to rising food and fuel costs
It's almost as if war is a bad thing.
A one positive thing that may come from this war is that the UK finally starts moving back towards Europe. I hope this will happen with every crisis but Govt actually making noises on this now
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62l6w03lwzo
The United Nations World Food Programme is saying that an additional 45 million people will be pushed into hunger and potential starvation due to rising food and fuel costs
There are also going to be the heat casualties when air conditioning becomes too expensive to use in parts of Asia.
Unless its resolved fast, unfortunately I have my doubts, this war is likely to have a lot of civilian casualties thousands of miles away from where the bombs and drones can be heard.
but we will soon be hit by supply problems
Did a tour of a few supermarkets and garages to get diesel at lunchtime, all dry. Luckily had enough for my evening drive to my mum’s… motorway signs were all warning there was no HGV fuel at the services. Hopefully a very localised problem, but we’ll be seeing more of this.
On, “choosing sides”… I don’t know anyone who is on “Iran’s side”, but everyone seems to agree that all this shit is on Trump. He’s the one that’s bombing from afar (including targeting religious sites and killing possible moderate politicians who would otherwise could been useful in bringing positive change in Iran). Even if Trump calls time on this “special military operation” and leaves it to “the paper tiger” of other NATO nations (both expressions used by Putin, uncoincidentally) to clean up the mess, this war and the way it has been carried out is going to **** things up across most of the world for years (apart from perhaps in Russia, uncoincidentally).
Kramer
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
I can only speak for myself here but of the 3 belligerents involved I don't want any of them to 'win', they are all rogue states to one degree or another.
I *do* want it to stop though, the problem is that all 3 states, with vastly different ambitions have to want it to stop too.
Anyway, in summary I think:
1 The US is overdue it's own Suez Crisis, the fact Trump and his America First mandate brought it about isn't even that surprising but the loss of life is desperately sad.
2 The Israeli state has guaranteed another generation or 2 of young men will grow up hating it and will want to extract revenge and Iran will be even more determined to develop nukes.
3 Iran will see no regime change anytime soon.
All 3 of the above results are saddening, including Americas 'excursion' and the resulting deaths.
There's no winners here, including the rest of the world.
He’s the one that’s bombing from afar
Well, for now. Trumps actions and their consequences will drive already angry people to extremes. The War on terror is getting a recharge.
Also, good luck to Trump trying to run away from globally traded commodities, especially fertilizer.
And i've just realised the bill introduced to prevent Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO was co sponsored by Rubio.
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
What were looking at is three horrible ***** having a knife fight in a crowded room.
In an ideal future UK will become more eurocentric and will work with other countries and iran to a more moderate stance which excludes the two war mongering countries who will retreat within their own borders and eventually they will send a sensible grown up to negotiate with the rest of the world.
I had a dream.
And i've just realised the bill introduced to prevent Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO was co sponsored by Rubio
There’s been an increasing amount of the Republican establishment standing up to Trump, I think because they’re going take a mighty kicking at the midterms because of his unpopularity and they’re worried they’ll be taken down with him.
I note McConnell, who is far from a bipartisan consensus builder, is also in on the NATO bill
And i've just realised the bill introduced to prevent Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO was co sponsored by Rubio
There’s been an increasing amount of the Republican establishment standing up to Trump, I think because they’re going take a mighty kicking at the midterms because of his unpopularity and they’re worried they’ll be taken down with him.
I note McConnell, who is far from a bipartisan consensus builder, is also in on the NATO bill
Pretty sure Rubio has totally disowned the bill since going full MAGA and said within the last 24 hours that leaving NATO would be a good thing. Not sure how he squared that in his head but then he's a Trump supported so isn't the sharpest tool in the toolbox.
In an ideal future UK will become more eurocentric and will work with other countries and iran to a more moderate stance
Have you noticed the EU reaction to Israel's endless atrocities?
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
What were looking at is three horrible ***** having a knife fight in a crowded room.
Agreed. And it would have been by far the best if the knife fight hadn't been started. However now that it has, if Iran "wins", we'll be going through inflation shocks every few years when it closes the strait, plus it'll likely embolden Russia.
I wouldn't be holding your breath on that
And i've just realised the bill introduced to prevent Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO was co sponsored by Rubio.
Although nobody wants to admit it, it was triggered following Trump v1.0.
Having said that it's right that the power is with Congress, representing the US population, and not a sole occupant of the WH acting on a personal whim.
Withdrawal from NATO is only part of the deal and I don't think that Trump will go even that far.
There's also intel sharing and international US bases to consider. The world is quite literally a US aircraft carrier and early warning system for attacks on the US and US interests. It also allows a first, early response to attack.
There are almost as many US servicemen and women in the UK as there are UK personnel (if you ignore reservists). That's a tremendous deterrent in itself, ignoring NATO.
The self-destructive counter position to the US leaving NATO would be for the US to leave European bases, Diego Garcia, etc.
There are almost as many US servicemen and women in the UK as there are UK personnel (if you ignore reservists).
Do you have numbers for that, I understood there to be around 11,000 US personnel in the UK
However now that it has, if Iran "wins"
Trump and Netanyahu guaranteed that Iran would 'win' when they dropped the first bombs. Now he's threatening to piss off and leave everyone else to clean up the mess. There is no military solution to this cluster****, and no political/diplomatic solution as long as Trump and Netanyahu are in power.
I know Machiavelli gets a bad rap these days but if you read his excellent book The Prince there's a very useful section on exactly how to make sure your invasion turns into a neverending disaster.
It's almost as if the USA have made this the basis of their strategy in every conflict of the last 50 years.
Vietnam, Afghanistan, Cuba, Iraq and now Iran.
There are almost as many US servicemen and women in the UK as there are UK personnel (if you ignore reservists).
Do you have numbers for that, I understood there to be around 11,000 US personnel in the UK
My error. Only out by a factor of 10!
I really shouldn't rely on memory and added a digit 🤔
Point remains, it's a deterrent in itself, thanks for spotting it
now that it has, if Iran "wins", we'll be going through inflation shocks every few years when it closes the strait,
Iran has always had that capability. For some reason they didn’t use it until now.
There’s been an increasing amount of the Republican establishment standing up to Trump,
There's a number of commentators who've expressed the opinion that we've reached (and past) peak Trump. The mid-terms are unlikely to be favourable, and perhaps more importantly the GOP are going to have to choose someone else to stand as their next POTUS candidate, and the focus will invariably shift away from Trump (if he's still alive) He'll hate that obviously, but I think even the most ardent Trumpist must be aware that they've just 6 months before it all comes to a screeching halt. The Alt-right media space is already openly bickering about it. The only blot on the horizon of no more Trump is that I think it's highly likely that Tucker Carlson will throw his hat into the ring, and I reckon he'll be very popular with MAGAs looking for their next cult leader to tell them what to think.
Sorry, I feel the Trump threads and this are becoming the same thing.
now that it has, if Iran "wins", we'll be going through inflation shocks every few years when it closes the strait,
Iran has always had that capability. For some reason they didn’t use it until now.
Do you think that they're likely to stop now that they've started?
Trump and Netanyahu guaranteed that Iran would 'win' when they dropped the first bombs. Now he's threatening to piss off and leave everyone else to clean up the mess. There is no military solution to this cluster****,
I think the difference here is that Netanyahu had a alternative outcome if the regime didn't collapse which was removing their ability to be a regional power. Which they've (to some extent at least) achieved. In that respect; it has been militarily successful. I think also we need to include the dead hand of MBS into the asshole category next to Trump and Netahyahu, while he's not directly involved, he's been cheering it on from the sidelines, and is fully behind the efforts to reduce Iran's influence and the raise the price of oil is a nice side-outcome*, and close the straights, all of which are clearly strategic gains for SA
* despite sitting on millions of barrels of oil, SA needs the price to be about $99 for it to balance it's books,currently it's going broke at an alarming pace.
However now that it has, if Iran "wins", we'll be going through inflation shocks every few years when it closes the strait, plus it'll likely embolden Russia.
And what happens if the other side wins? Goodbye Cuba / Goodbye Palestine / Goodbye Southern Syria / Goodbye Northern Egypt / Goodbye Greenland / Goodbye Canada.
Another day with no diesel at the petrol stations. Different area to yesterday. Perhaps the “don’t call them shortages” are following me around, and everywhere else supply is just fine?
The shameless hypocrisy of this woman knows no bounds !!
Do you want her to welcome attacks on a shipping lane?
Do you want her to welcome attacks on a shipping lane?
No, I want her to acknowledge that the attacks on a shipping lane did not occur in a vacuum, and that the Iranians are not the only "reckless" actors, or even the most reckless actors. The way to re-open the SoH is pretty obvious, so it's entirely disingenuous to convene a meeting about it without recognising why it's closed in the first place.
Surely the meeting is in line with everything said by everyone else in NATO (beyond the USA)... once the ****wits have stopped bombing Iran, after there is a cease in the war more generally, the chances are the SoH will remain closed unless there are international efforts to change that... so start planning now. Personally I think a mix of India/****stan/China will end up with a bigger role in opening it up than Europe/Canada/Australia and/or any states in the region (other than Iran and Israel).
Start planning. That’s not the same as yapping about “recklessness” while aiding and abetting the war.
Ah, we’re at the “don’t criticise Iran” stage of this are we? It’s clear to everyone that the USA shouldn’t be attacking Iran. Let’s not pretend the Iran regime are not also a problem, especially now Trump’s give them a grand excuse to shut down a shipping lane long term.
was iran a problem before the unprovoked aatack? were shipping routes open?
it is the obvious retaliation for the illegal unprovoked attack.
don't forget this is all to distract from epstein
was iran a problem before the unprovoked aatack?
Remind us how many people the regime has murdered?
Ah, we’re at the “don’t criticise Iran” stage of this are we?
I’m not sure where you’ve dug that up from. But trying to solve a problem while ignoring its origin does not seem likely to succeed.
Remind us how many people the regime has murdered?
The Israeli regime? 70,000 is an often quoted figure, though the true number is many times that.
I'm unsure why you're referring to the Israeli regime when I was responding to a comment about the Iranian regime. Unless you're trying to defend it through whataboutery.
and? is that a reason to bomb indiscriminately killing many thousand civilians including a school where the us killed 150 children how many us citizens killedby their government? how many Palestinians killed by isreal? why didn't the us attack Israel?
ongoing killings allover the world
that is no justification for bombing a country.
I'm unsure why you're referring to the Israeli regime when I was responding to a comment about the Iranian regime. Unless you're trying to defend it through whataboutery.
I’m unsure why you brought up the subject of Iran’s oppression of its citizens. Unless you’re trying to deflect from the origins of this war.
was iran a problem before the unprovoked aatack?
Remind us how many people the regime has murdered?
Are you trying to imply that Netanyahu and Trump started this war because the Iranian regime killed its own citizens?
Are you trying to imply that Netanyahu and Trump started this war because the Iranian regime killed its own citizens?
I implied that Iran was a problem before the attack. Any other inference is your own.
I'm unsure why you're referring to the Israeli regime when I was responding to a comment about the Iranian regime. Unless you're trying to defend it through whataboutery.
I’m unsure why you brought up the subject of Iran’s oppression of its citizens. Unless you’re trying to deflect from the origins of this war.
It seems entirely obvious why I brought it up. If it genuinely passes you by then I can't help any further.
and? is that a reason to bomb indiscriminately killing many thousand civilians including a school where the us killed 150 children how many us citizens killedby their government? how many Palestinians killed by isreal? why didn't the us attack Israel?
The whataboutery in your post does you no credit. It is very obvious that Iran, contrary to what you said, was a problem prior to the attack.
There are no good guys here.
the whataboutery is claiming Irans conduct towards its population gives a green light to murder Irans citizens
why not attack Israel? Sudan? Myanmar? they all kill citizens
the reason for this attack is to distract the US population from epstein.
its an illegal unprovoked attack on a sovereign country under false pretexts
The US-based human rights organisation HRANA estimates at least 7,015 deaths from the protests.
Israel confirmed they had agents in the crowd.
As the protests unfolded, figures like former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Israel's heritage minister, Amichai Eliyahu, said that Mossad agents were among the demonstrators.
the whataboutery is claiming Irans conduct towards its population gives a green light to murder Irans citizens
Please quote this claim.
Well, yes, it does. I was trying to be generous.
If you say so.
Did you mean to quote something else?
nope. its pretty clear that that is being used to justify the bombing of Iran. several folk have said similar.
its whateboutery
Could you two quit it please? You're no longer adding to the discussion nor doing yourselves any favours.
There is no way Iran will back down now even if the country is ruined. They have nothing much to loose as their choice is bleak between the choice of choosing being a "slave" nation or being a poor but dignify free nation that never gives in to oppressors and aggressors. There is no way inflation will come down now unless Iran's demands are met. The USA and Israel want to carve up Iran but that strategy will backfire very quickly as Iran is holding the jugular vein of the world at strait of Hormuz. Iran strategy is simple, all enemies are not allowed to pass through. "You shall not pass!" Since this is not a war for Europe, they should simply distance themselves from the two oppressor and aggressor states. If Europe supports the oppressor and aggressor states, they can see their govts toppled when the general public can no longer endure the inflationary hardship.
The two "world leaders" are both pseudo-transformational leaders.