[Closed] IDS has resigned...

I'm no IDS fanboi, but having just read his resignation letter saying he couldn't justify the cuts as part of a budget that benefits higher earning taxpayers, it seems - for whatever personal or political reason - a sound reason to quit.

A stand taken far too late, obviously.

Regardless of Political ideology there is a truth in what he said.
That the working age (to this I'd add children) have been disproportionately impacted by cuts. This is a continuation of the previous governments attempt to gain the grey vote.
If cuts are necessary then the impact should be shared equally.

Morally, yeah, but people of working age vote less than pensioners, so clearly democracy requires elderly people to get a better deal, fair or not. Disabled people are a minority and evenly spread around constituencies so nobody needs to court their votes.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting what to have for lunch.

A moments silence for those that he tipped into further depression, extreme poverty, despair and suicide.

I knew a man called Ian. He was a manager at my mothers workplace in the 1980s. An upbeat, kind, motivated, articulate and energetic human being, loved by all. Sadly he in later years (through whatever events) fell prey to mental illness. He didn't survive the other Ian, and a few years ago our Ian died 'by his own hand'. I rather believe he was pushed as The Letter from the Other Ian was the last thing he received.

IDS should be in 'care and recovery' on pick-up-the soap duty.

It would appear that Lord Ashcroft is less than happy with Call Me Dave and George if this tweet is anything to go by

"In history we had empires so emperors ruled. Then we had kingdoms so kings ruled. Now we are just a country...
8:44 AM - 19 Mar 2016"

What is the cliche? Oh yes, with friends like these..

Counts? Are we now ruled by the European nobility?

IDS is on Marr show at 9, bullshitometer gonna go thru the roof

His former colleague and pensions minister Baroness Altman has laid into him too
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I'm no IDS fanboi, but having just read his resignation letter saying he couldn't justify the cuts as part of a budget that benefits higher earning taxpayers, it seems - for whatever personal or political reason - a sound reason to quit.

Yes, a mere six years to find a conscience. Or a convenient lie. Gosh, I wonder which it could be...

Robert Peston's take on it (from his FB feed:

Iain Duncan Smith's resignation is one of those "oh my god" moments in politics.
Because he is saying, in effect, that he has been morally compromised by the Chancellor and Prime Minister.
He insists that he reluctantly agreed to changes in the personal independence payment, which will reduce disability benefit payments by £1.2bn a year - and that he did so without knowing that they would fund tax cuts for the middle classes.
Here is why he is so angry: his long cherished hope of reforming the welfare system is - in his view - being corrupted by the imperative of shoring up Tory support for George Osborne and David Cameron, and of reducing the deficit as an ideological imperative.
Osborne and Cameron, via their intermediaries, are saying his hands are just as much steeped in the blood of this unpopular disability cut as theirs - and this is all about his visceral belief that they are wholly wrong in wanting Britain to stay in the EU.
Politics rarely gets nastier than this.
UPDATE
So as I just said on News at Ten, a government source tells me the contentious "version" of cutting personal independence payments (PIP) to the disabled has been dropped.
Which is big news.
But let's be crystal clear, my source did not say that there would not be other disability benefit cuts. In fact he implied there would indeed be another "version" of the cuts.
Why?
Well there would be a pretty big hole in George Osborne's budget if he simply loses the £1.2bn a year he was banking on from the PIP reform.
And another thing.
My Downing Street source tells me Duncan Smith resigned knowing the prime minister was about to drop the PIP change.
Duncan Smith denies this. In fact one of his officials tells me that only last night Downing Street was chastising him for not being enthusiastic enough in selling the PIP reform.
This is one almighty government mess.
Most exposed right now is the Chancellor, George Osborne.
When recently asked why he went for the PIP reform, in the face of unease and opposition from his own benches, I understand he pointed the finger of blame at Duncan Smith as Work and Pensions Secretary.
Duncan Smith has tonight said he will not stay in government to be Osborne's human shield.
Which puts the Chancellor directly in the line of fire.

A slightly different take on it. The more we (society) go on about how it was a political move, detracts from the subject matter (the benefits cut).

By not allowing his (lie or not) argument of the cuts being indifensible to be discussed in public, it plays into the Tory hands and the cuts can still go ahead.

We (society) need to keep the debates going of how they shouldn't happen..not go on about the politics of his resignation. Whatever the reason for his resignation ..it's a good thing for the people at the sharp end of the proposed cuts.

By not allowing his (lie or not) argument of the cuts being indifensible to be discussed in public, it plays into the Tory hands and the cuts can still go ahead.

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35841201 ]don't think Corbyn will allow them not to be debated[/url]

[i]That the working age (to this I'd add children) have been disproportionately impacted by cuts. This is a continuation of the previous governments attempt to gain the grey vote. [/i]

Yep.

As side-note it is quite interesting that my Mum gets more in Carers Allowance for my Dad than I'd get in Job Seekers Allowance. And he still gets 4 visits per day from external cares.

Also their heating allowance isn't means-tested, but our child benefit is (in reality).

They have now got to an age where they can't really spend all their pensions/allowances etc, the same position as my in-laws.

Still wouldn't trust IDS though.

Preston doesn't need his sources. The details are all there in the official documents that nobody reads. This is crass party politics with disability payments (and the truth) the abused pawns in the middle. Peston must love the sensationalism as the reality is far more mundane.

Still the Tories are a joy to watch with their penchant for self-imposed turmoil. If only the issues were not important. Good job no one is calling for these clowns to have more say in running the economy and our lives isn't it?

"In history we had empires so emperors ruled. Then we had kingdoms so kings ruled. Now we are just a country...
8:44 AM - 19 Mar 2016"

Lord Ashcroft is an A Grade arsehole. He has nothing of value to say and the world would be a better place without him.

#edit: Oh and if IDS had a shred of decency then he would have done the decent thing. I believe a glass of brandy and a service revolver would play a part.

IDS resigned due to benefit cuts or in another word he thinks that it's not right.

By his action IDS is aligning with Lefties.

Lefties decide that IDS' resignation is fishy etc or not right ...

[b]So Lefties what do you want? [/b]

Feed the world? 🙄

(in the background the song ... " ...feed the world ... don't they know it's Xmas time ..." )

Coyote - Member
...#edit: Oh and if IDS had a shred of decency then he would have done the decent thing. I believe a glass of brandy and a service revolver would play a part.

Is the Brandy for dutch courage before using the revolver to create vacancies for Chancellor and PM?

Their manifesto promised inheritance tax cuts at the top end, and unspecified benefits cuts... It's like he's only just noticed he's a ****ing Tory...

I didn't realise Iain Duncan "Arbeit Macht Frei" Smith as well as being the harbinger of poverty for the poorest, was also an exponent of exiting the EU. This resignation is nothing more than a cynical ploy to try and win votes for leaving the EU by looking more moderate.

IDS resigned due to benefit cuts or in another word he thinks that it's not right.

Yes, and politicians always tell the truth.

The Daily Heil described IDS as a "petulant, self-interested hypocrite", so even his own side can't stand him! He is also by a distance the worst Tory leader in history, which is truly saying something, so I very much doubt that any of the Tory hierarchy will be mourning his departure either. He's the sort of chap who probably views Nick Clegg's approval ratings with green eyes. Basically everyone thinks IDS is a c***, and as the evidence is so overwhelming maybe he came to the same conclusion too?!?

Meantime the cuts roll on

Not really - austerity George will only live up to his nickname (assuming he keeps his job post leadership campaign!!) in 2019-20. That is when real cuts and "austerity" will arrive if he has any hope of meeting current forecast.

The numbers are unlikely to be achieved though...still nothing new there as Austerity George has already broken his own rule of having debt fall as a share of national income and is relying on a few accounting tricks in the future which will also probably unravel too.

Just to be clear my comment about cuts was about the amount disabled can expect to receive as pip in the future. Services for vulnerable people will be cut as well.

Once all the noise settles down we shall see - but one thing we DO KNOW is that spending on disability benefits continues to be higher than forecast

If interested you can read section 4 in the OBR document

Not only do you see that forecasting tax credits and PIPs etc is notoriously difficult (and generally governments end up over-shooting) but the assumptions are extremely complex and likely to mean that all the current headlines are likely to be wrong!!

e.g,

Once again we have needed to make significant upward revisions to our pre-measures forecast of spending on disability benefits disability living allowance (DLA) and its replacement the personal independence payment (PIP)). As Table 4.24 shows, our premeasures forecast in 2020-21 is £1.4 billion higher than in November. It is £3.0 billion higher than in July (the first time our forecasts extended to 2020-21).

and

Not for the first time, we have revised up our forecast for spending on disability benefits because the transition from DLA to PIP has saved less money than expected. DLA reforms were initially factored into the first OBR forecast in June 2010 on the assumption of a flat success rate of 80 per cent (i.e. 20 per cent of claims reassessed would stop receiving the benefit). Average awards were assumed to be unchanged, so the 20 per cent of cases not succeeding at reassessment resulted in 20 per cent savings, which increased to around £1.5billion in 2015-16. [b]There was little evidence on which to base this costing, which in essence reflected the Government’s desire to reduce spending on disability benefits by 20 per cent.[/b]

Back of the envelope stuff or reverse engineering - either way its bllx!!!

And yet the headlines are definitive and people resign. Its ridiculous!!

And finally the conclusion for Austerity George (sic)

A.28 This Budget contains a number of policy changes that we have judged to be sufficiently large to justify adjustments to our central economic forecast. These include:

• fiscal policy – [b]the Government has loosened fiscal policy in the short term,[/b]

Wey hey - what they didn't mention is that the nasty man is responsible for one of the loosest fiscal policies in the developed world too!!

Incroyable.....

By his action IDS is aligning with Lefties.

Errrr, I don't think he would see it like that.

THM we're agreed then there's no basis in evidence for the policy of cutting pip. :wink:It's therefore ideologically driven from the back of the envelope. There's no basis to claim that people are being awarded more pip as the cost could be due to more claimants or higher administration costs. The government's plan as layed out in this budget is to reduce the amount paid in certain circumstances. There's been no authoritative announcement of any change

Alternatively....

Better late than never eh http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/21/stephen-crabb-government-u-turns-disability-cuts-leaves-budget-disarray

Current Newsnignt coverage is good on the underlying topic

Nicky Morgan gets a roasting too, albeit a little unfair. If she had read today's latest IFS report then she might not have struggled quite so much!

IDS has shown not an inkling of sympathy for the poor and sick, indeed his brand of so called "compassionate conservatism" seems unchanged from his pre-epiphany days when he was simply a colossal bastard.

For him to write a letter claiming that he cannot abide the £30 a week cut is disingenuous in the extreme, I'd trust the integrity of a third hand, Pound shop latex contraceptive over that of IDS any day of the week.

He's talked a load of old Jeffrey Archer [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2002/12_december/19/newsnight_ids_cv.shtml ]here.[/url]

His department has talked bollix [url= http://www.newstatesman.com/2013/05/great-crapsy-why-iain-duncan-smith-isnt-all-he-seems ]here.[/url]

There's loads more out there...

They just made the point on R4 that the 4 billion shortfall has to be found from somewhere else and the options are scant because so many things have been ring fenced.

Can tax make up the difference without becoming uncompetitive and reducing revenue? (IIRC the corporation tax cuts would have raised revenue, not reduced it.)

Also they pointed out welfare budget is increasing 1bn year on year - at a time when inflation is near zero, we're getting healthier and jobs are so plentiful we have to import a 300,000 strong workforce each year.

jobs are so plentiful we have to import a 300,000 strong workforce each year.

Being able to put people in these jobs and get them working must boost the economy a fair bit. Could it be then that we need to stay in the EU to ensure we get enough immigration...?

True. If you make a manifesto commitment to ring fence parts of public spending and not to raise key tax rates, you don't leave yourself with many options, especially given the size of welfare in the total spending budget.

There can be no surprises either in the public or (more importantly) for IDS and this morning Boris. That's pure opportunism or they are being deliberately thick. Or both??

The depressing thing is that all this is framed (here and elsewhere) in flawed macroeconomic theory that is based in a misunderstanding of the state we are in. This is true of governments and bodies (IMF, ECB etc) across all political persuasions.

What, so only you know the real truth?

True. If you make a manifesto commitment to ring fence parts of public spending and not to raise key tax rates, you don't leave yourself with many options, especially given the size of welfare in the total spending budget.

Ring fencing is the big problem here. The budget only needs to be cut by 1pc, hardly noticeable if you made the cuts across the board.

That's democracy though. Pensioners and the NHS have to be protected or nobody votes for you.

Being able to put people in these jobs and get them working must boost the economy a fair bit. Could it be then that we need to stay in the EU to ensure we get enough immigration...?

I'd have thought it's a better argument for people advocating leaving. They can say that outside the EU we can still import a workforce as large as desired, but could alternatively choose to reduce the welfare budget by reducing the workforce we import in the hope the shortfall would be filled by the UK unemployed.

...but then a pro EU person could argue that the economy would be bigger in the EU so even with a large imported workforce there are still jobs for all the UK unemployed.

...and then a "pro benefit cut" person could say cutting benefits would be a good way to encourage people to take the spare jobs EU membership provides...

That's party politics, first form an opinion, then choose the facts that support it.

Tut, tut mol.

No, but it is fair to say that those who do understand what is happening are in the minority of economics normally characterised by having lived in Japan at some stage and understanding the similarities between what happened there during the lost decade (and some) and what is currently happening in US, UK amd Europe. But to get there you have to throw away many of the textbooks that you studied on macroeconomics and many find that hard to do *. Especially those in "power" who still believe in the supremacy of central banks and monetary policy.

Note the level of EU inflation (last flash estimate was negative) despite several rounds of [s]stealing[/s] QE

On IDS, the people who everyone now loves to quote (IFS) sum things up nicely

...the pattern of effects from tax and benefit changes over this parliament results directly from three policy choices: £12 billion of working age welfare cuts; the protection of pensioner benefits; and increases in the income tax personal allowance and higher rate thresholds. [b]Not only were these policies in the Conservative manifesto last year, they were front and centre. Neither the fact of their implementation nor their distributional consequences should be a surprise.[/b]

Unless it seems you were a minister or London mayor!!!

*edit, actually not completely true, you could have understood and followed the late Wynne Goddley who saw this all coming thanks to his approach to macro modelling and/or my old (distant)!colleague Richard Koo in Japan (far more senior than me, then and now!)